Having served as an Official Mainstream Media Sports Journalist for a long time, I can tell you that we do indeed know that all this Super Bowl coverage is overkill.

Flickr user AngieSix; Creative Commons license

No, most people wouldn’t admit that. Certainly not when they’re deciding how many people will be going to Media Day or the several press conferences each coach will endure throughout the week leading up to the Biggest of Big Games.

But deep down — yes, we know. We know Media Day has become a circus in which people writing about the spectacle now outnumber the people creating it. When MTV VJ “Downtown” Julie Brown got credentialed, Media Day officially ceased to be a useful event for Official Mainstream Media Sports Journalists.

And we know the coach’s press conferences, though giving NFL Network a bit more programming, are relatively useless. You might get one or two injury updates as a result of 15 questions all worded slightly differently.

“So, Coach, has Gronkowski’s ankle improved?”

“Well, he seemed OK yesterday, but we’re taking it day-by-day.”

“So was he able to practice?”

“Yeah, he ran some routes.”

“So is he better?”

“We really don’t …”

“Do you have before-and-after X-rays from Monday’s practice and today’s?”

“Um …”

ESPN’s Mike and Mike in the Morning addressed Gronkowski Overkill on their show yesterday morning, so you know it’s serious. But when you don’t have an injury to ask about, things get weird. You get the questions from the back-row guys with very specific feature assignments: “Coach, can you talk about how your linebackers play differently when the ball is on the left hash mark instead of the right?”

Fact is, not much changes between Wednesday and Thursday of Super Bowl week. Each team practices for the umpteenth time. Each team has known the opponent for 10 days. Each team has known for months that Madonna is performing at halftime, and contrary to what Lifton thinks, that’s not a bad thing.

(Seriously — the Rolling Stones and the Who can drag their dessicated bodies onstage to pretend they can still hit all these notes, but we’re all in a huff about a woman who dares to look good in her 50s? Oh, the horror!)

And if you’re in one of the 30 million or so households that watched last week’s games, chances are pretty good that you already know all you need to know about these teams.

What we don’t want to admit is that our target audience should be the extra tens of millions who don’t watch a lot of football during the season but will tune in Sunday. And they just need a little guide to remind them which QB dates models and which QB is the little brother of the really good QB they’ve heard about — Walter Payton or somebody?

That’s not as much fun for Official Mainstream Media Sports Journalists. We want to tell you how much this means for Eli Manning’s legacy. Or how many celebrities we spotted when some dude decided it would be fun to bring an Official Mainstream Media Sports Journalist to an Official Celebrity Super Bowl Party.

The bottom line is that it’s one game. It’s not the Olympics, where someone’s lifelong dream is realized every few minutes. It’s not the World Cup, where some team of nobodies is going to come from nowhere and surprise one of the world’s big powers in a group-stage game. It’s one game between two well-known teams and a whole lot of expensive ads, of which USA TODAY readers will select the stupidest and declare it the “winner.”

(No, I don’t know where USA TODAY gets the AdMeter people, either, but I’m guessing their TV preferences lean away from Arrested Development and toward Two and a Half Men. So maybe they get Nielsen-rating families?)

It’s a great occasion, absolutely. It might be the only thing that brings people together in this multicultural country with a lot of loud political fringe groups and poor public transportation. It would be a little hypocritical of me to enjoy the celebration of Australian culture in each year’s Australian football Grand Final and not enjoy the uniquely American Super Bowl. Some people might be a little queasy with all the military-industrial rhetoric, but we can always watch Puppy Bowl until game time if we prefer.

So please forgive Official Mainstream Media Sports Journalists if we’re fishing for angles leading up to the grand occasion. It may not lend itself to quite as many good stories as the NFL thinks. But you wouldn’t want to miss it.

It was kind of like that episode of Freaks And Geeks

I had long since repressed those traumatic memories, but they were dislodged in the wake of the Denver Broncos’ victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers in the Wild Card game. As with me in dodge ball, no one gave Tim Tebow a chance against Pittsburgh’s famously punishing defense, as drawn up by their legendary coordinator Dick LeBeau. But as it was pointed out all last week, the Steelers’ repeatedly stacked the box with both safeties, leaving no deep coverage. While this was largely effective in stopping Denver’s excellent running game, it also left Pittsburgh’s secondary vulnerable for Denver to turn play action mid-range passes into big plays, which is exactly what happened on the first, and last, play of overtime.

Contrast that with the run of improbable come-from-behind victories Tebow during the regular season. In those games, the Broncos’ opponents followed the traditional method of protecting a late lead, which adds cornerbacks to prevent the receivers from going out of bounds and stopping the clock, and places the safeties higher up the field than usual to prevent a big play. You can give up yardage as long as they don’t get behind you and the clock keeps moving. This made no sense because Tebow is unlikely to have consistent success throwing deep. But over-the-middle passes to a wide-open receiver with room to run? No problem. This is why Tebow could look horrible for three-and-a-half quarters and look like a world-beater in the game’s late stages.

This Saturday, Tebow Time came to a crashing halt, as it did in the regular season, against the New England Patriots, whose defense this year has been a shell of what it was during their rise to greatness a decade ago. But Bill Belichick is no idiot, and his defensive scheme played into Tebow’s greatest weakness. Fifteen of the Broncos’ plays in their 45-10 loss to the Patriots went for negative yardage. What looked like repeated breakdowns of Denver’s offensive line was more likely the result of Tebow’s inability to recognize the Pats’ disguises and adjust the protection at the line of scrimmage. The Patriots showed him respect, but no mercy, proving for the second time this season that God’s favorite quarterback is no match for Satan’s favorite coach.*

If nothing else, Tebow has been fascinating to watch because he’s challenged football’s conventional wisdom about running a college offense in the National Football League. Now that there’s a significant amount of game film on what he can and do, we’ll all be watching next season to see both how teams prepare for him and how he adjust. But with his first year as a starter in the books, there is no metric that suggests that Tebow is even an NFL-caliber backup quarterback, no less a starter. His fans may point to his 7-4 record as proof that he has the intangibles of a winner, but New York Jets fans were saying the same about Mark Sanchez a year ago, and now they want to run him out of town. There’s a fine line between “poise” and “big loser.”

The beauty (or pain, depending on who you root for) of the NFL is that its parity-driven structure means that the difference between winning and losing can sometimes be the result of fluke plays. If, say, a botched snap, a wrong call by the officials, and an “immaculate reception” goes your way in a season, an otherwise 8-8 team that misses the wild card turns into 11-5 and a possible first-round bye. For example, if, in the Broncos’ 13-10 overtime win against the Chicago Bears, Marion Barber doesn’t make two Marion Barber-like mistakes, the Broncos finish 7-9, miss the playoffs, and there is no talk of divine intervention helping Tebow. If Tebow is to succeed, it should be because he realizes he was very lucky and remains dedicated to quickly improving his craft. As a neutral who enjoys watching good football, I want him to do well, but that doesn’t mean I want him anywhere near my beloved New York Giants.

Best. Day. Ever.

Speaking of which, perhaps Tim Tebow would be well served by looking closely at Eli Manning’s career. Like Tebow, his critics have suggested he’s had a sense of undeserved sense of destiny throughout his career (due to his father and brother), and whose greatest career achievement to date was more the result of a strong defense and a bit of luck than his own ability.

But beneath his goofy exterior and a persona that rivals Derek Jeter for blandness is a competitive streak, intelligence, and self-confidence that is, well, Jeter-esque. Out of character, he made headlines in the pre-season for suggesting that he should be considered among the league’s elite. That those words came after a 2010 season where he led the league in interceptions and the New York Giants failed to make the playoffs for the second consecutive year made him the subject of ridicule. It didn’t help that the off-season that saw him lose two of his favorite targets (Steve Smith and Kevin Boss) and two linemen (Shaun O’Hara and Rich Seubert).

Manning responded by proving the doubters wrong, throwing for a Giants single-season record of 4,933 yards, with nine fewer interceptions. Like Tebow, he specialized in late-game heroics, setting an NFL single-season record 15 touchdown passes in the fourth quarter. Similarly, many of those wins were also the result of Manning’s ability to pick apart a prevent defense.

The difference is that, for much of the season, Manning carried the Giants on his back, his right arm keeping them in nearly every game as their usually powerful running game stalled and their weak secondary was picked apart by Manning’s opposite quarterback.  Manning also improved as the games went on because he’s become very adept at reading defenses at the line of scrimmage and making quick decisions. Tebow, on the other hand, too often relied on his defense to keep the games close so that he could pull out those clutch victories.

The truest measure of Manning’s improved leadership isn’t that he orchestrated those comebacks, but in how he has dealt with those off-season transactions. The rebuilt offensive line struggled early, but Manning became more adept at throwing the ball away where in previous years he would have taken a sack, or worse, made a dumb throw that resulted in an interception. At tight end, rookie Jake Ballard, who rarely ran routes at Ohio State, turned in Kevin Boss-like numbers, while Smith’s replacement, Victor Cruz, a virtual rookie (he was injured for most of his first year) who was undrafted, showed big-time playmaking skills as he salsa-danced his way to a Giants-record 1,536 yards with nine touchdowns.

It’s unfair to compare Tim Tebow to Eli Manning, just as it has always been wrong to compare Eli to his Hall Of Fame-bound brother. They’re all at different stages in their careers and in different systems. But like Eli Manning in his first few years, Tebow is young and driven to become the best he can be. Proper coaching, both on the field and in the film room, could correct his deficiencies (and it helps to have John Elway right there to guide him along and maybe fix some of the flaws in his delivery). A veteran backup who’s not Brady Quinn would also be good. But that’s of little consolation to Denver fans today as they head into a long off-season.

* For the record, I care precious little about Tebow’s religious or political beliefs as they relate to his ability. I made that cheap joke mainly because it also takes out Belichick. Many athletes in all sports openly display their faith and they’re not used as a lightning rod in the national shouting match about religion. That said, Tebow’s eye black and alignment with Focus On The Family make him fair game.  In the name of discourse, please keep all discussion of Tebow’s faith out of the comments for this post. 

WAS @ PHI -8.5: This spread seems out of control to me for a divisional matchup between two teams who aren’t going anywhere.  The Eagles did a nice job of keeping themselves in the hunt with victories in their last three games, but the jig is finally up.  I don’t think they’ll bother to bring their A game to this one, which will give the Redskins a good chance to remain competitive.

SNF @ STL +10.5: St. Louis has a pretty good reason to put forth zero effort in this game (draft standing) while San Francisco has a very reason to put forth 100% effort (home-field advantages in the playoffs). So it seems like this should be a slam dunk victory for the 49ers.  But it seems too much like easy money, and with Vegas involved, there is never any such thing.

CHI @ MIN -1.5: Yet another game where both teams have little motivation to exert themselves.  I like Chicago here, because they’ve got a shot at getting back to .500, so they’ll put forth a little more effort than the hopeless Vikings.

DET @ GNB +3: I think this game will be treated much like a preseason contest between both teams, with each offense getting pulled from the field as soon as they’re looking sharp.  But Green Bay’s got a lot more depth than the Lions so I expect their second unit to have a good bit more success at putting up points.

CAR @ NOS -8: This game is impossible to pick because it all depends on what’s happening in the San Francisco game.  If the 49ers jump out to an early lead, the Saints will pack things in.  Otherwise, Brees will run roughshod over Carolina’s pathetic defense.  Based on my above pick of the Rams to keep things close, I think New Orleans will have good enough reason to leave their starters in an put up a large number of points in this one.

TEN @ HOU +2.5: Houston’s locked in as the #3 seed, but that doesn’t mean that they’re not going to want a win here.  They limped their way into the playoffs, and they’re offense needs plenty of fine-tuning, unlike many of the other playoff-bound teams.  They’re better than Tennessee, and they’ll show it here.

IND @ JAC -3.5: Another game with major draft implications, but I don’t think this one holds any surprises.  The Colts will lay down for the Jaguars and make sure that Andrew Luck is available to them come draft day.

NYJ @ MIA -3: The Jets aren’t out of things yet, but the Dolphins would love to play spoiler here and dash their playoff hopes.  This one seems like it could be very tight – even going to overtime – so getting the points is probably the safe move here.

BUF @ NEP -10: The Patriots can secure home-field advantage throughout the playoffs with a win here, and they’ll deliver.  Their offense should score about twice as many points as the Bills here, so look for a final score of about 45-28 or thereabouts.

TAM @ ATL -11.5: Tampa just wants their season to be over.  They won’t even bother showing up in this game.  Atlanta should cover easily.

BAL @ CIN +2: Baltimore is going to bring their A game, while Cincinnati is simply not in the same class.  A spread of a touchdown or more might be tempting, but this number of points simply isn’t worth it in a game that Baltimore will be trying very hard to win.

SND @ OAK -3: San Diego is out of the playoff hunt, and the Raiders will need some help from Denver, but that doesn’t mean that this won’t be a hard-fought game.  These teams HATE each other and there’s nothing the Chargers would like more than to be responsible for ending the Raiders’ season.  The Raiders’ defense has been doing their absolute best to give away games in the fourth quarter, and it wouldn’t surprise me a bit to see Rivers and company engineer a late drive to steal a victory here.

KAN @ DEN -3: I think that the wheels have come off for the Broncos.  Kansas City will have the same attitude as San Diego – there’s no way they’ll like down for the Broncos here, and I think they might actually pull off the upset here.

SEA @ ARI -3: I tossed a coin here, and it came up Seattle.  So, take the points, I guess.

DAL @ NYG -3: I can’t help but believe that the Cowboys will find a way to choke this one away.  It’s in their DNA.

Here’s the computer’s picks for Week 16, for what it’s worth.

HOUSTON TEXANS at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS Computer’s Pick: Indianapolis (+6) Bet Amount: $1.80 (Consensus)

COMMENTS: Teams that break epic losing streaks often get inspired and win two in a row.  I think that will happen here.  Houston is seriously running out of gas and won’t be able to match the Colts’ intensity.

OAKLAND RAIDERS at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS Computer’s Pick: Kansas City (-2.5) Bet Amount: $17.82 (Conflict)

COMMENTS: The Raiders are engaged in a pretty epic late-season collapse, and will get their asses handed to them by a Kansas City team that is undoubtedly riding high after taking down undefeated Green Bay last week.

DENVER BRONCOS at BUFFALO BILLS Computer’s Pick: Buffalo (+3) Bet Amount: $5.23 (Consensus)

COMMENTS: I think the magic is over for Denver.  I think Buffalo will eke out a win as a home dog.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS at TENNESSEE TITANS Computer’s Pick: Jacksonville (+7) Bet Amount: $6.14 (Conflict)

COMMENTS: Both these teams won’t bother to show up for this game, so I think Jacksonville will be able to lock down the win against the spread after the game ends with a final score of 6-3.  I don’t really know or care who is going to actually win.

ARIZONA CARDINALS at CINCINNATI BENGALS Computer’s Pick: Arizona (+4) Bet Amount: $0.35 (Gamblor only)

COMMENTS: The Cardinals are looking pretty hot, but this is a tough game for them to play.  I think Cincinnati will be able to win at home by more than a single scores, so that’s who I’d take here.

MIAMI DOLPHINS at NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS Computer’s Pick: Miami (+10) Bet Amount: $83.16 (Consensus)

COMMENTS: As it did at the beginning of the year, the computer is stupidly loading up on Miami against the Patriots.  Since the computer’s big bets have been reliably awful this year, I’d go the other way and ride the Patriots.

CLEVELAND BROWNS at BALTIMORE RAVENS Computer’s Pick: Cleveland (+13) Bet Amount: $5.84 (Conflict)

COMMENTS: Can Baltimore actually cover this spread?  Yes.  Yes.  A hundred times yes.  Cleveland is going to get murdered in this game.

NEW YORK GIANTS at NEW YORK JETS Computer’s Pick: New York Giants (+3) Bet Amount: $6.57 (Gamblor only)

COMMENTS: I don’t see a clear winner here.  I like that the Giants are essentially getting a free home game here, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they make the most of it against the slumping Jets.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS at WASHINGTON REDSKINS Computer’s Pick: Washington (-6.5) Bet Amount: $20.99 (Consensus)

COMMENTS: I can’t conceive of the Redskins beating anybody by more than a field goal, so I like the Vikings here, despite their issues.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS at CAROLINA PANTHERS Computer’s Pick: Tampa Bay (+7.5) Bet Amount: $6.36 (Gamblor only)

COMMENTS: Tampa Bay is completely mailing it in.  They won’t bother putting up much of a fight against a Carolina team that is playing for pride and actually has the ability to light up the scoreboard at times.

SAINT LOUIS RAMS at PITTSBURGH STEELERS Computer’s Pick: Pittsburgh (-16) Bet Amount: $102.04 (Consensus)

COMMENTS: I’m not sure if this spread will hold (it’s predicated on the idea that Roethlisberger will play) but even if he does, it’s way too much.  I’ll stick with my insistence that Pittsburgh simply cannot be trusted to cover large spreads, regardless of who they’re playing against.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS at DETROIT LIONS Computer’s Pick: San Diego (+2.5) Bet Amount: $58.81 (Consensus)

COMMENTS: San Diego is muy caliente, and they’re going to be pushing really hard to claim the AFC West.  I like them a lot here.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS at SEATTLE SEAHAWKS Computer’s Pick: Seattle (+2) Bet Amount: $6.52 (Consensus)

COMMENTS: I don’t see why this spread isn’t larger.  Seattle’s greatest strength (Marshawn Lynch) is going to be completely neutralized by San Francisco’s greatest strength (their run defense).  And all other factors point to San Francisco winning easily.  Sounds fishy to me.  I’ll be a contrarian here and take the Seahawks.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES at DALLAS COWBOYS Computer’s Pick: Philadelphia (+1.5) Bet Amount: $7.54 (Son of Gamblor only)

COMMENTS: This game should mean a lot to both teams, but it’s pretty much the heart of choking season for the Cowboys, so I expect them to find some way to throw this game away.  I wouldn’t be surprised if the Eagles actually blow them out.

CHICAGO BEARS at GREEN BAY PACKERS Computer’s Pick: Chicago (+13) Bet Amount: $5.58 (Gamblor only)

COMMENTS: Teams that have long winning streaks snapped also often lose two games in a row, and with the pressure off I think Green Bay will probably phone this one in – particularly if San Francisco loses and the Packers are assured home field advantage throughout the playoffs.  I think we might see a surprise victory for the Bears here, and at the very least a cover.

ATLANTA FALCONS at NEW ORLEANS SAINTS Computer’s Pick: Atlanta (+7) Bet Amount: $1.29 (Conflict)

COMMENTS: Everyone will be hoping for a shootout to decide their fantasy football championships, and I think these teams will deliver.  Both are looking sharp and hungry for the postseason, and while it’s very unlikely that Atlanta can catch New Orleans for the division, both teams will be eager to get a win here.  It’s fully possible that the game goes down to the wire, or at least the spread portion of the game, but I still like Atlanta getting the seven points.

The computer has some huge bets on the way this week, but that’s kind of meaningless, because I only have $100 left of the original $1000 I invested a few years ago, so I can’t cover the bets that the computer wants to make.  I’ll push things as hard as I can for the remainder of the season with what I’ve got left, but I’m pretty pessimistic at this point and I’m not going to chase, especially when the computer wants to throw another $400 at the Eagles.  Of course, we all know that this is the point where things will turn completely around, the computer will reel off six consecutive weeks of hitting 80% of its bets, but oh well. I’ll just have to suck it up and start again next season.  Happy Thanksgiving, everybody.

GREEN BAY PACKERS at DETROIT LIONS Computer’s Pick: Green Bay (-6.5) Bet Amount: $0.01 (Conflict)

COMMENTS: I’m glad that the computer is staying away from this one.  Given the struggles that Detroit had against Carolina last week, I’m not too optimistic about their chances here.  I’m hoping that we’ll get a good game here, but come on, it’s the Packers.  And it’s the Lions.  On Thanksgiving.

MIAMI DOLPHINS at DALLAS COWBOYS Computer’s Pick: Miami (+7) Bet Amount: $62.47 (Consensus)

COMMENTS: Picks like this are one of the reasons the computer is going bankrupt this season.  Miami has looked pretty sharp lately, but against decent teams they’re still outmatched.  The computer thinks that a spread of seven points is too low; that this is a trap, but I don’t.  I think that spread is pretty much exactly where it should be.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS at BALTIMORE RAVENS Computer’s Pick: Baltimore (-3) Bet Amount: $17.81 (Conflict)

COMMENTS: It doesn’t matter how bit this bet is, really, because I’m expecting it to push.  San Francisco is headed a long way to play in this game, and both teams will be bringing everything they’ve got to the table.  It’s not very often that a football game is decided – from the beginning – by which team has the better kicker, but I think that’s the case here, and the Ravens will win by a single field goal.

ARIZONA CARDINALS at SAINT LOUIS RAMS Computer’s Pick: Arizona (+3) Bet Amount: $4.95 (Gamblor only)

COMMENTS: Sure, take the points.  Why not?  This game is a coin toss anyway.

BUFFALO BILLS at NEW YORK JETS Computer’s Pick: Buffalo (+8) Bet Amount: $1.83 (Gamblor only)

COMMENTS: Buffalo is cratering.  The Jets will be looking for revenge after embarrassing themselves against Tebow and the Broncos, and a divisional doormat is just what the doctor ordered.  Without Fred Jackson, Buffalo’s offense will stall, and it should be a relatively easy matter for the Jets to move the ball against Buffalo’s declining defense.  It’s possible we’ll see the Jets’ defense pitch a shutout in this one.

CLEVELAND BROWNS at CINCINNATI BENGALS Computer’s Pick: Cincinnati (-7.5) Bet Amount: $6.28 (Conflict)

COMMENTS: Cleveland’s offense is an abomination, but it’s hard to accept that a rookie – even one performing as well as Andy Dalton – can be trusted to cover a spread of more than a touchdown.  Regardless of their seemingly endless issues in just about every phase of the game, I like Cleveland to cover here.

HOUSTON TEXANS at JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS Computer’s Pick: Jacksonville (+3.5) Bet Amount: $19.93 (Consensus)

COMMENTS: It’s hard to know how Houston is going to react to the loss of Matt Schaub.  I don’t think they will be ready to give up on their season until they get beat soundly by a quality opponent, and Jacksonville is anything but.  For this game at least, I think the Texans will put for the extra effort and open up lanes for their running game, which should lead to a relatively low-scoring game that goes by in a flash.  Jacksonville won’t be able to put up many points so this should be a spread that Houston can cover with relative ease.

CAROLINA PANTHERS at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS Computer’s Pick: Indianapolis (+3.5) Bet Amount: $6.24 (Gamblor only)

COMMENTS: Carolina is due for a blowout.  Against the Colts, pretty much everyone is.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS at TENNESSEE TITANS Computer’s Pick: Tampa Bay (+3) Bet Amount: $4.68 (Gamblor only)

COMMENTS: I think Chris Johnson’s huge game two weeks ago was a fluke.  He’ll get stuffed again here, and Tennessee will have a hard time putting up many points.  I think Tampa Bay should probably win this game outright, so I’m happy that Gamblor is taking the points here.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS at ATLANTA FALCONS Computer’s Pick: Minnesota (+9.5) Bet Amount: $13.10 (Gamblor only)

COMMENTS: The Vikings fell flat yet again last week, and I think the energy they burned at the end of their futile comeback attempt against the Raiders won’t have come back.  Atlanta is going to want to get more wins under their belt as they chase a wild-card berth, so I don’t think they’ll treat this game lightly.  They should dominate.

CHICAGO BEARS at OAKLAND RAIDERS Computer’s Pick: Oakland (-4.5) Bet Amount: $268.02 (Consensus)

COMMENTS: A week after almost blowing a lead against a 2-7 Minnesota Vikings team that was led by a rookie quarterback and without their All-Pro running back, the Raiders are favored by 4.5 against a 7-3 Bears squad?  I know that Cutler will be sitting this game out, but this line is still goddamned insane.  And Gamblor agrees wholeheartedly.  From the look of it, Vegas is desperately trying to push money onto the Bears and that usually means one thing: a trap.  I don’t buy it, though.  I simply don’t trust the Raiders when it comes to gambling and I doubt I ever will.

WASHINGTON REDSKINS at SEATTLE SEAHAWKS Computer’s Pick: Washington (+4) Bet Amount: $9.84 (Gamblor only)

COMMENTS: Home field advantage is a huge edge for the Seahawks, and Washington will be making a long trip.  I think they’ll have a ton of problems on offense.  Seattle should be able to win this game solidly.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS at PHILADELPHIA EAGLES Computer’s Pick: Philadelphia (+5) Bet Amount: $387.52 (Consensus)

COMMENTS: There’s no spread on this game yet, but the computer is predicting that the Patriots will win by 12 points – almost two touchdowns.  I certainly don’t think that it’s wrong.  If I still have some money left after the Thanksgiving games, I’ll probably split it pretty evenly between this game and the Raiders game, and I won’t be all that surprised if I lose both.

DENVER BRONCOS at SAN DIEGO CHARGERS Computer’s Pick: San Diego (-6) Bet Amount: $18.70 (Conflict)

COMMENTS: Sooner or later the Denver Broncos are going to get their comeuppance.  It starts here, I think.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS Computer’s Pick: Pittsburgh (-10.5) Bet Amount: $30.54 (Consensus)

COMMENTS: I have explained to my friend Gerry that you simply cannot trust the Steelers to cover a large spread.  It’s not because they’re not good enough, it’s because they’re a shady organization that shaves points.  Be on the lookout for an inexplicable turnover leading to points late in the game the provides Kansas City with a backdoor cover.

NEW YORK GIANTS at NEW ORLEANS SAINTS Computer’s Pick: New Orleans (-7) Bet Amount: $1.28 (Conflict)

COMMENTS: I can’t help but envision the Saints massacring the Giants in this game.  It’s just my gut feeling on this one.

I’m happy that the computer has only got a few bucks on the Eagles this week (which of course means they’ll win in a 45-3 blowout).  This week, Gamblor will finally be putting its money on a solid underdog, in a pick that I actually happen to agree with very much.  By the way, my own picks were 12-4 last week and 11-3 the week before.  I haven’t really been keeping track this year, but I’m pretty sure I’m doing better than Gamblor.  Maybe I should just start betting with my gut.

NEW YORK JETS at DENVER BRONCOS Computer’s Pick: Denver (+6.5) Bet Amount: $9.00 (Gamblor only)

COMMENTS: This spread has already bumped up two points since Tuesday, and I’m not even sure it’s done moving.  A lot of gamblers assume that the Jets defense, a) being good and b) having had a chance to make adjustments to shut down the option offense are going to eat Tebow and the Broncos like so much horse-fed horseflesh (for that double-horse flavor).  I absolutely agree.  It’s a must-win game for the Jets, and as soon as they take care of business they’ll be able to get back home and rest up for their upcoming divisional game against the Bills next week.

BUFFALO BILLS at MIAMI DOLPHINS Computer’s Pick: Miami (-2) Bet Amount: $3.94 (Conflict)

COMMENTS: This is an interesting proposition.  The Buffalo Bills started off brilliantly this year but are clearly on a downslope.  The Miami Dolphins were one of the top contenders in the Suck for Luck sweepstakes but have convincingly won their last two games and are clearly on an upslope.  But have these two squads passed each other yet?  Or will it happen during this game?  I don’t think it will.  I think Buffalo still have a few more victories coming their way this season, and this will be one of them.

CINCINNATI BENGALS at BALTIMORE RAVENS Computer’s Pick: Baltimore (-7) Bet Amount: $22.74 (Consensus)

COMMENTS: Baltimore’s loss last week in Seattle ruined a lot of teasers and broke a lot of hearts in suicide/survivor pools throughout the country.  Was it that much of a shock?  Actually, yes.  While Baltimore’s offense is pretty inconsistent, it was bizarre to see Tavaris Jackson perform competently while Marshawn Lynch repeatedly chipped away short gains running the ball (for perspective’s sake, Lynch gained 109 yards without having a single gain longer than 8 yards).  I think the Ravens will bounce back just fine on defense, but their offense won’t be able to pick up the slack.  Cincinnati looked decent enough against the Steelers, and I think that seven points is more than they’ll need to cover the spread here.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS at CLEVELAND BROWNS Computer’s Pick: Jacksonville (0) Bet Amount: $8.06 (Gamblor only)

COMMENTS: I honestly wouldn’t be surprised to see this game end with a final score of 3-0.  Jacksonville’s defense has been terrific lately and it’s offense is awful, while Cleveland is pretty much awful in every possible way.  The last time they scored more than 12 points was all the way back in Week 6 – when they scored 17.  I think Jacksonville is actually a much better team, thanks to the talents of Maurice Jones-Drew (perhaps Cleveland would be in a similar situation if Peyton Hills would ever actually suit up) so I’d side with them in this game, though it’s very easy to imagine this game won by either team on a single fluke play, much like the Raiders-Chargers puntfest of 1997.

OAKLAND RAIDERS at MINNESOTA VIKINGS Computer’s Pick: Minnesota (+1) Bet Amount: $9.14 (Gamblor only)

COMMENTS: This is a typical game that the Raiders of old should have won, but would have found a way to blow.  Things seem to have changed quite a bit with Carson Palmer playing well again – I think he brings an incredible amount to this team and it’s exciting to see the Raiders’ receivers actually making plays as opposed to dropping balls (or in the case of Heyward-Bey, dropping them into the arms of defensive backs to ruin potential comebacks).  Curiously enough, Heyward-Bey has effectively vanished from the wideout corps.  I think these teams will go blow for blow, with Adrian Petersen running wild and being answered by big plays from Carson Palmer to his receivers, but ultimately the Raiders will prevail.

CAROLINA PANTHERS at DETROIT LIONS Computer’s Pick: Carolina (+7) Bet Amount: $13.98 (Consensus)

COMMENTS: With the way the Lions have been playing lately, this seems like free money for those who bet on Carolina.  Of course, lots of folks felt that way about Carolina’s game last week against the Titans, which they lost 30-3.  But I think they’ve got a better shot here.  Detroit’s running game is completely nonexistent, and even with Carolina’s weak secondary, as long as they throw a few delayed blitzes at Stafford they should be able to disrupt the passing game.  Cam Newton is mobile enough to elude Detroit’s pass rush, and should put up sufficient statistics to make fantasy owners happy and sufficient points to make gamblers happy as well.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS at GREEN BAY PACKERS Computer’s Pick: Tampa Bay (+14) Bet Amount: $1.37 (Consensus)

COMMENTS: It’s pretty much the same every week.  The Green Bay Packers are facing a huge spread, but you shouldn’t bet against them because they’re insanely good and are playing at the top of their game right now.

DALLAS COWBOYS at WASHINGTON REDSKINS Computer’s Pick: Washington (+8) Bet Amount: $6.26 (Consensus)

COMMENTS: Dallas really ought to be able to win this game by more than eight points.  However, when the two teams faced off in September – in Dallas – the Cowboys only won by two.  I think they’ve ironed out some of their early-season kinks at this point, though, while Washington has developed its own set of problems.  The Redskins have scored just 20 points in their last three games combined, and they’ll be lucky to add another 10 to that total by the end of this contest.

ARIZONA CARDINALS at SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS Computer’s Pick: Arizona (+9.5) Bet Amount: $51.75 (Consensus)

COMMENTS: Arizona looked pretty sharp in their comeback against Philadelphia, but pretty much everybody has been able to do that so far this year (seriously, Philadelphia has allowed five fourth-quarter comebacks already).  The 49ers have been efficiently dispatching their opponents this season, and I don’t really see any reason why they wouldn’t be able to do the same against the Cardinals, except that Frank Gore is hurting and they don’t have the aerial firepower to take advantage of the Cardinals’ weakness in the secondary.  I think Arizona is a relatively safe bet here for the computer, simply because I don’t see all that many points being scored in this game and 9.5 points is an awful lot to cover in that scenario.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS at SAINT LOUIS RAMS Computer’s Pick: Seattle (+2) Bet Amount: $3.15 (Conflict)

COMMENTS: The dud games this season in the NFL seem to be some of the worst ever.  At least in previous years we’d be treated to unexpected shootouts between also-rans, but this year there haven’t been any so far and I’m not expecting that to change.  The residents of St. Louis will probably be spared this mess courtesy of a local blackout, but my condolences to folks in Seattle if you’re stuck watching this mess of a game.  I’ll take Seattle here, simply because of the points.

TENNESSEE TITANS at ATLANTA FALCONS Computer’s Pick: Atlanta (-6) Bet Amount: $32.71 (Conflict)

COMMENTS: Tennessee keep inexplicably winning games this season, and while a 5-4 record isn’t exactly stellar, it does seem kind of remarkable given that Tennessee’s #1 weapon (Chris Johnson) has been shut down for most of the season.  He had a great game last week, and Titans fans can hope that the taste of success will be enough for him to shake of the lethargy that has plagued him since the start of the season.  I’m not sure I see Tennessee having too much luck in this game, though.  While last week’s loss will have effectively destroyed Atlanta’s changes of winning the division, they’re still very much in the hunt for the wild card, and their coach won’t let them forget it.  I think they’re talented enough to get things together and pull off a solid victory against the Titans.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS at CHICAGO BEARS Computer’s Pick: San Diego (+3.5) Bet Amount: $255.58 (Consensus)

COMMENTS: Gamblor’s all over this one, and I can’t really blame it.  The Chargers have had an extra two days to rest and get healthy after last week’s surprising loss to the Raiders, and will be focused.  I have the feeling that after their huge win against Detroit last week, the Bears will phone this one in.  I kind of doubt that Philip Rivers is going to blow another fourth-quarter drive, and while it just might be for the backdoor cover, he’ll probably reward bettors that still have some faith in him.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES at NEW YORK GIANTS Computer’s Pick: Philadelphia (+4) Bet Amount: $8.11 (Consensus)

COMMENTS: Are the Eagles finished?  You might be surprised.  I’m expecting Vince Young to take over the reins for this game, and the team will deliver a surprisingly strong effort behind him and come up with a surprising win.  Particularly since I have almost no money riding on the Eagles this week.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS at NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS Computer’s Pick: Kansas City (+14.5) Bet Amount: $5.50 (Conflict)

COMMENTS: The Patriots are ready to get hot, and the poor Chiefs have drawn the absolute worst week to face them.  With Matt Cassel broken and some hapless no-name taking his place, and without an effective running game, the Chiefs won’t be able to accomplish anything against the Patriots defense, which is normally putrid.  And forget about stopping Tom Brady.  This one will be a blowout.

This is the computer’s biggest betting week of the year so far, with three bets of $80 or more and almost $900 total on the line.  Once again, the computer is putting a tremendous amount of trust in the Eagles, so this season’s fortunes will pretty much depend on Andy Reid’s ability to manage his incredibly talented squad.  Yikes.

OAKLAND RAIDERS at SAN DIEGO CHARGERS Computer’s Pick: San Diego (-7) Bet Amount: $17.86 (Conflict)

COMMENTS: As a Raiders fan, it really stung to have been right about the Raiders shitting the bed last week against the Broncos.  But I think they should be able to compete with the Chargers, because this is one of the games they’ve been getting psyched up for all season.  By contrast, the Chargers gave it their all against the Packers last week and will be a little bit low on gas in this contest.  Don’t get me wrong, I’m not silly enough to believe that the slumping Raiders can beat the Chargers, I’m just saying that they won’t blow this one until the last minute or so, which means the points should factor in.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS at CINCINNATI BENGALS Computer’s Pick: Pittsburgh (-3) Bet Amount: $87.32 (Consensus)

COMMENTS: Even though they lost last week, it’s obvious that the Steelers are starting to get things together this season, having won four in a row prior to that.  But the Bengals have won FIVE in a row, and are looking pretty clever for having dumped Carson Palmer and given Andy Dalton a shot at the big time.  Unfortunately for the Bengals, I think this is where their run will end – their wins came against teams like Indianapolis, Seattle, and Jacksonville and I think the Steelers defense has far too much pride to let a rookie take them apart.  I think the computer is making a pretty safe bet here.

DENVER BRONCOS at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS Computer’s Pick: Kansas City (-3) Bet Amount: $9.82 (Conflict)

COMMENTS: Kansas City must be absolutely stunned at having lost to Miami.  And it wasn’t like they were nipped at the last minute on some kind of fluke play; the Dolphins simply dominated them from wire to wire, in pretty much all facets of the game.  The only thing that Kansas City did moderately well was stop Daniel Thomas.  However, given that Denver will be completely dependent on their running game, the Chiefs should be able to develop a game plan to shut down Willis McGahee and Tim Tebow.  Of course, the same could have been said about the Raiders last week.  I like the Chiefs here, mainly because I’m expecting Tebow to hover around .500 until he learns how to throw the damn ball, so he’s due for a loss.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS Computer’s Pick: Indianapolis (+3) Bet Amount: $0.53 (Gamblor only)

COMMENTS: Defensive battles can be interesting, but pathetically inept offensive battles are much less so.  I’m expecting a comedy of errors throughout the game, culminating with Jacksonville winning by a tight score because neither team can manage much more an a field goal.  Maurice Jones-Drew will be the difference in this game; I guess I’d take the Colts to cover or push here.

BUFFALO BILLS at DALLAS COWBOYS Computer’s Pick: Buffalo (+5.5) Bet Amount: $10.71 (Gamblor only)

COMMENTS: Buffalo’s honeymoon of beating good teams appears to be over.  Dallas, on the other hand, very quietly bounced back from their trouncing by the Eagles with a casual victory over the Seahawks last week.  I think Dallas will once again handle themselves well, winning this game by a touchdown or so and covering the spread nicely.

HOUSTON TEXANS at TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS Computer’s Pick: Tampa Bay (+3) Bet Amount: $6.32 (Gamblor only)

COMMENTS: This is another tough game to call.  Houston has been taking care of business quite efficiently since losing Andre Johnson, while Tampa Bay has been slumping.  I don’t really see a change in momentum for either team, so I’m going to assume that Houston will deal with the Buccaneers without too much fanfare here and cover.

TENNESSEE TITANS at CAROLINA PANTHERS Computer’s Pick: Tennessee (+3) Bet Amount: $12.84 (Gamblor only)

COMMENTS: I feel like Cam Newton is due to win a game, but I’m not sure that the Panthers deserve to be favorites over a team that has clawed its way to a 4-4 record despite losing their best receiver to injury and suffering through an incredible dud of a season from their star player (who I unwisely selected for my fantasy team this year with the first pick in the draft).  I think this game is pretty much of a toss-up, in which case I’m happy to take Tennessee and the points.

WASHINGTON REDSKINS at MIAMI DOLPHINS Computer’s Pick: Washington (+4) Bet Amount: $1.07 (Conflict)

COMMENTS: Miami is going to be incredibly fired up after winning their first game of the season in such convincing fashion.  They’re going to want to make it two in a row, and the Redskins are going to make it incredibly easy for them.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS at ATLANTA FALCONS Computer’s Pick: New Orleans (0) Bet Amount: $10.03 (Consensus)

COMMENTS: Kind of like the Patriots-Giants contest last weekend, I feel like this predicted shootout is going to fizzle and we’ll be looking at a final score of 20-17 or something like that.  In a game where there’s no spread, I’ll simply take Drew Brees to pull off the win.  He’s good at that.

SAINT LOUIS RAMS at CLEVELAND BROWNS Computer’s Pick: St. Louis (+2.5) Bet Amount: $7.65 (Gamblor only)

COMMENTS: Awful, awful, awful.  Take the points, I guess, which will come in handy when this game ends as a 0-0 tie after seventy-five minutes of play.

ARIZONA CARDINALS at PHILADELPHIA EAGLES Computer’s Pick: Philadelphia (-14) Bet Amount: $571.20 (Consensus)

COMMENTS: I suppose I should give this some serious thought, considering it’s the biggest bet of the season, but I really don’t have all that much to say.  If the Eagles execute the way they have demonstrated they are capable of doing, they should win this game 45-13.  If they don’t, it wouldn’t be all that shocking to see them actually lose.  With their backs against the wall, I don’t think they’ll disappoint me again, but I’ve learned not to expect much from them at this point.  I’m not afraid to make this bet, but I sure hope they finally deliver for me.

BALTIMORE RAVENS at SEATTLE SEAHAWKS Computer’s Pick: Seattle (+7) Bet Amount: $18.18 (Consensus)

COMMENTS: Baltimore is a pretty good team, but seven points is too many to be giving away for such a long trip, especially one to Seattle.  I think the Ravens will phone this one in and let Seattle keep it close enough for the spread to factor in.

DETROIT LIONS at CHICAGO BEARS Computer’s Pick: Chicago (-3) Bet Amount: $83.99 (Consensus)

COMMENTS: I love this bet.  Chicago looked incredible against the Eagles this past weekend, with the Forte’s fumbles being their only serious misstep in the game.  Detroit, like Buffalo, has fallen off its perch and with a one-dimensional offense that features little more that Matt Stafford and Calvin Johnson, should have problems against Chicago’s defense.  I think the Bears will be all right in this one.

NEW YORK GIANTS at SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS Computer’s Pick: New York Giants (+3.5) Bet Amount: $6.52 (Consensus)

COMMENTS: This would be a much more interesting game if the Giants offense were actually healthy.  Even though it’s not, I still like them to cover here.  They’ve been playing well lately, and should be able to win or at least take this game to overtime.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS at NEW YORK JETS Computer’s Pick: New England (+1) Bet Amount: $1.75 (Consensus)

COMMENTS: I feel like the Patriots are going to really catch fire in this game.  Too many people have been counting them out lately, and they normally respond extremely well.  Brady will be unstoppable, and the Jets offense just isn’t built to keep up with them, regardless of how awful the Patriots secondary has become.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS at GREEN BAY PACKERS Computer’s Pick: Minnesota (+13.5) Bet Amount: $9.51 (Gamblor only)

COMMENTS: Like I said last week, you’d have to be crazy to bet against Aaron Rodgers with how he’s been playing.  I’m glad Gamblor is only betting $10 here.