This system is just fine in theory when you allow yourself infinite wealth as well as an absence of a table limit.  But all roulette tables have maximum limits, typically from 2^7 to 2^10 of the minimum bet value.  Which means that you’d be fine until you hit a bad stretch and lost more than seven (or ten) bets in a row.  Then, of course, you’d really be up shit creek.  Unfortunately, your chances of hitting that bad streak are far more likely than you’d think – which is why the system doesn’t work.  For something like roulette, or coin tosses (as was chronicled in the opening sequence of Tom Stoppard’s “Rosencrantz and Guildenstern are Dead”), the system has no memory of the previous outcome.  In other words, if the NFC has won the Superbowl coin toss twelve times in a row, on their thirteenth attempt their odds of winning it yet again are exactly the same as they’ve been for every other coin toss: 50%.

Gambling on the outcome of a sporting event is different.  Whether it’s the point-spread or an over-under, the books take into account the previous history of a team when determining the line for a game.  In terms of the point spread, if a team sucks and hasn’t covered the spread in a while, the spread gets bigger.  Particularly in the case of sports gambling, where favorites tend to command a greater share of the wagers, the books will inflate the lines on bad teams for two reasons: to help limit the amount of money risked on the favorite, and to increase their chances of covering the spread and taking home a lopsided chunk of the money.  And just as importantly, while every individual sportsbook will have their own minimum and maximum you’ll bump up against, a sporting event is the equivalent of a single roulette spin that takes place everywhere in town at the exact same time.  So you’re free to place bets at fifty different places if you like.  You’ve got a lot more freedom to keep pushing when you inevitably hit a bad streak.

It’s pretty simple logic.  A simple coin toss produces a binomial distribution, a Gaussian curve.  If it were true that long losing streaks in sporting events are less likely due to inflated lines (and we already do know that underdogs have a slight edge – about 1%), you’d expect that betting on an underdog would result in a curve with thinner tails than the true Gaussian distribution.  On the graph the pink line represents a normal binomial distribution – where the odds are fifty percent regardless of the length of the streak.  The blue line represents the distribution if the odds of winning increased with each successive loss (and decreased with each successive win).  The area under the two curves is identical, but the adjusted distribution is much less likely to experience extreme winning and losing streaks due to the “memory” effect.

So how does this concept hold up in reality?  Not well.

Within my own database, where I’ve got the stats from about 3,500 football games.  If you bet on each team in each one of these games, for the total population you’d expect to have losing streaks of six games or worse a total of 53 times.  In reality, there have been 50 such streaks during that time.  Is that a significant difference?  I certainly wouldn’t trust that it was.

How well does this work as a betting strategy?  Also, unfortunately, not well.  The graph below shows the gradual growth of your bankroll over time (including your exposure during any given week) based on a minimum bet of $10.  It follows a completely predictable slope, but it’s occasionally punctuated by huge spikes downward which correspond to disastrous losing streaks.  If your bankroll is substantial enough to cover these losses you’re fine, but there comes a point where you’ve been using this system for ten solid years and still manage to fall into a -$10,000 hole.

The worst losing streak was 10 consecutive losses against the spread.  And which team was such a magnificent specimen of ineptitude that they managed to drop 10 straight games without covering the spread even once?  One guess.  You’re correct!  It WAS the Oakland Raiders!

Another area where I had a look (since it’s easier to organize the statfox data and look at the results of more games) was baseball over/under values.  This is where things really got blown out of the water – in one unbelievable stretch during 2008 the Florida Marlins hit the over 15 consecutive times (not including two games during that stretch which were pushes).  Which means that if you were using the same $10 minimum martingale scheme I described above to bet the under, you’d reach a point where you were $640,000 in the hole with another $750,000 on the line to make it all back – for a total exposure of $1.4 million.  So…this isn’t really a betting scheme I’d ever consider or endorse.

(To watch this video, right-click and hit play)

Gamblor’s season ended up being a pretty big disappointment, primarily due to Vegas’ insistence on setting short lines for all of the Green Bay games.  It cost them a lot of money to do so, and it cost Gamblor a lot of money as well.  The computer’s overall performance for the season was a weighted win percentage of 48.6%, for a total loss of $353.  I’m not really discouraged, though, because factoring in last season’s winnings the computer now has a lifetime score of negative $71.  Spread out over the last two seasons of gambling, that translates into a loss of about $3 per week, which I’d be willing to part with for the sheer entertainment value alone.

Even though it lost money this year, Gamblor actually worked the way it was supposed to.  The graph below shows how it performed at increasing levels of confidence.  The higher the confidence level, the better it did.  The fly in the ointment was the 95% category, where the computer only selected two games (both against Green Bay) and proceeded to miss them both.

One curious thing about the 2009 season was that there were fewer flip bets this year than any other year I’ve simulated.  The total number of flip bets this year was 11,300.  This compares to an average (over the last 14 years) of 20,700.  This meant that the computer was relying pretty heavily on hedge bets, which is where the bulk of its losses came from.  The number of hedge bets was 17,700, just ten percent higher than the historical average of 15,900.  Ultimately, it was a fairly quiet year for the computer, mildly disappointing but well within the bounds of my expectations.

Gamblor will be back again next year, but he’ll be joined by his spawn, Son of Gamblor.  There are two major differences between the two models – Son of Gamblor accounts for the distance traveled and the time zone changes for visiting teams.  Son of Gamblor also uses a weighting curve instead of Gamblor’s tiered system.  I’ll explain things in detail during preseason next year.  I hope the football offseason is bearable for you, and I hope you’ll join me again next year for another season of degenerate gambling.

The only true guarantee in sports gambling is that there’s no such thing as a sure thing.  Time and time again this has been proven to us by the casinos, as teams that seem like guaranteed locks somehow find a way to shit the bed and fail to cover – or lose outright.  Unfortunately, that’s the way the system works – or there wouldn’t be a system at all.  If you’re like most gamblers out there, including me, you’ve ended the season down a few chips thanks to all those sure things that turned out to be duds.  I’m convinced that this year’s Superbowl will turn out to be yet another cautionary tale of how the house always finds a way to win.  We’ll probably see Peyton Manning deliver a stellar performance but get handcuffed by shady officiating, and the Saints will score a late touchdown to cut the Colts’ margin of victory to just less than the spread.  That kind of shit happens all the time when Vegas is involved.  But occasionally, every once in a blue moon, the tables turn, and the casinos are the ones who watch in horror as a single freak bounce of the football costs them millions and millions of dollars in the span of a few horrifying seconds.  Which brings me to my feature for the week:

(To watch this video, right-click and hit play)

For this countdown I have to thank several contributors – the incomparable Walter Cherepinsky of walterfootball.com, who has been handicapping for ten solid years and is still incredibly polite and encouraging to neophytes like me, Steve Makinen of statfox.com, which has been an invaluable resource without which Gamblor might not even exist, and poker pro Joe Pelton, who is a thorough class act and is definitely someone you should be watching (and rooting) for at the WSOP in May.

The Sportsbooks’ Top 5 Worst Bad Beats of All Time:

5.  New England Patriots 25, Buffalo Bills 21.  November 29, 1998. It’s a rare occurrence that officials will call interference on a Hail Mary pass – it has only happened once in recent memory, in this year’s contest between the Detroit Lions and the Cleveland Browns where Matt Stafford managed to pull himself together after a shoulder injury to toss the winning touchdown on an untimed play from the one yard line.  When hosting the Buffalo Bills in 1998, the New England Patriots benefited from a similar call that enabled them to win the game in an identical fashion – with an untimed touchdown pass from the one yard line.  This game is actually widely credited for bringing instant replay back to the NFL, as the Patriots had benefited from a questionable call on fourth down earlier during their final drive, where Bills players later reported hearing one official say to another “just give it to them.”  But the way that this game killed the books was the twist that came after the Patriots scored to take a 23-21 lead.  With the Patriots laying three points, it looked to be a certain push for the books – a very pleasant prospect considering that the majority of money was on the home team.  But Buffalo coach Wade Phillips, disgusted with the interference call, ordered his team to leave the field and Patriots kicker Adam Vinatieri walked the ball into the end zone for an uncontested two point conversion – covering the spread for the Patriots and costing the books quite a bit of money.

4.  Jacksonville Jaguars 30, Pittsburgh Steelers 21.  September 22, 1997. The kickers in this year’s playoffs, led by the normally automatic puppy-eyed Nate Kaeding, have been notoriously awful.  But that doesn’t compare with the kicking disaster that befell the books early in the 1997 season.  After a trip to the AFC conference championship in 1996 and a 2-0 start to their season, the Jaguars were looking strong hosting the 1-1 Pittsburgh Steelers in a widely anticipated Monday Night Football matchup.  It was Jacksonville’s first chance to host a Monday night game, and fans flocked to both the stadium (setting an attendance record of 73,016) and the sportsbooks to show their support for the team, which was favored by four points.  The sportsbooks enjoyed the close contest, and felt relieved when Jacksonville was held to a short field goal with just over four minutes left to take a 23-21 lead.  Pittsburgh managed to mount a late drive, and got within field goal range with enough time left for a 40-yard game-winning attempt by kicker Norm Johnson.  There really was only one thing that could happen that would enable the Jaguars to cover the spread.  The field goal needed to be blocked.  And the first defensive player to get near the blocked kick needed to ignore their coach’s instructions, channel their inner Leon Lett, and refuse to let the dying ball lay dead.  That irrepressible bastard would need to successfully run the ball back 58 yards for a touchdown.  Which is exactly what Jaguars safety Chris Hudson did.

3. New England Patriots 34, Cleveland Browns 17.  October 7, 2007. In the first part of the 2007 season the Patriots were simply unstoppable.  They had won their first four games by scores of 38-14, 38-14, 38-7, and 34-13.  Furthermore, they had covered the spread in 9 of their last 10 games, and were facing a Cleveland team that had already lost to Oakland and only boasted victories over Cincinnati (who would finish the season 7-9) and Baltimore (who would end up 5-11).  There was simply no way that Vegas could set a line high enough for this game, and most books finally settled with the Patriots favored from 15.5 to 16 points.  And when New England jumped out to a 20-0 lead by the end of the first half it seemed as though the Patriots would yet again cost the books a small fortune.  But Cleveland managed to claw their way back into the game (from a gambling perspective), scoring two touchdowns in the fourth quarter to close the gap to 27-17.  After pinning the Browns deep in their own territory with just 42 seconds remaining, New England was content to play a soft prevent defense and a classic backdoor cover, one of Vegas’ favorite occurrences, seemed likely.  But Browns tight end Kellen Winslow was stripped of the ball by Patriots defensive back Randall Gay, who ran the ball in for a touchdown to cover the spread.  And while this loss was devastating for the books, it wasn’t even the end – New England went on to cover their next three games as huge favorites.  It wasn’t until Week 9 that the Patriots finally failed to cover a spread in their 24-20 victory against the Colts as 4.5 point favorites, ending a span where they covered the spread in 13 out of 14 games and cost the books an absolute fortune.

2.  Tennessee Titans 22, Buffalo Bills 16. January 8, 2000. Normally, when officials make a questionable call at the end of the game (such as at the end of a 2008 game between the Steelers and the Chargers when a Troy Polamalu touchdown at the end of the regulation was erroneously stricken from the record books) it magically manages to benefit the sportsbooks. But the officials finally managed to screw over Vegas at the end of the wild card playoff game between the Titans and the Bills in 2000, an ending that has been since referred to as the “Music City Miracle.” The Titans, playing with home field advantage, were favored by four points and were also heavily favored by bettors. When the Titans scored a field goal to go up 15-13 with under two minutes remaining, the books were able to relax, figuring that even in the unlikely event of a Buffalo turnover, the Titans would be able to kill the clock. When Buffalo managed to kick a field goal to take the lead with just 16 seconds left on the clock, a Titans cover was pretty much unthinkable – all Buffalo needed to do was perform a squib kickoff and the Titans would be out of range for even a Hail Mary with the few seconds remaining on the clock. But Lorenzo Neil picked up the bouncing kick and handed it to tight end Frank Wycheck, who threw it from the middle of the field to the sideline where Kevin Dyson caught it and raced upfield for a thrilling 75-yard touchdown. The officials reviewed the play, but found inconclusive evidence to overturn, and the touchdown was upheld, leading to a 22-16 victory for the Titans and a heartbreaking defeat for both the Bills…and the books.

1.  Pittsburgh Steelers 35, Dallas Cowboys 31. January 21, 1979. The worst “bad beat” in sportsbook history, on a day that is referred to as “Black Sunday” by the oddsmakers, happened at the end of Superbowl XIII. When the books set the line for this game, the Pittsburgh Steelers, who were poised to win their fourth NFL title of the decade, were favored by 3.5 points. Money flowed in on the Steelers, enough to make the sportsbooks nervous.  So they moved the line down to 4.5 points to balance things out.  And it worked, many gamblers were enticed to take the Cowboys.  When Pittsburgh scored a touchdown with seven minutes left in the game to go up 35-17, the books were feeling pretty comfortable. But Roger Staubach led the Cowboys on one of his familiar late-game drives and closed the gap to 35-24. And when Dallas recovered the ensuing onsides kick with just over two minutes left in the game, fingernails began to get chewed. Staubach led the Cowboys 52 yards in a nine play drive that ended when he tossed a 4-yard touchdown pass to Butch Johnson with just 22 seconds left in the game, leading to a final score of 35-31.  Everyone who bet on the Steelers at -3.5 got paid, and everyone who bet on the Cowboys at +4.5 got paid.  In other words, almost everyone who bet on the Superbowl that year won their bet.  It was the biggest loss that sportsbooks ever suffered – and most likely ever will suffer – in a single game.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS vs INDIANAPOLIS COLTS Gamblor’s Pick: Indianapolis (-4.5) Bet Amount: $18.22

WHY IT’S WRONG: Once again, considering pure statistics only, Gamblor thinks this line is a little on the high side.  To me, it now looks like a trap.  The line opened at as high as 6 and my friend Tim warned me that he thought a middle opportunity would be available later in the week when the line came down.  I thought he was wrong – bettors were already lining up to bet on Indianapolis.  It seemed more likely to me that the books would slide the line upwards just a bit to 6.5 to push a little more money onto the Saints.   But they have done the exact opposite. The primary motivation for this shift has been the questionable condition of Dwight Freeney’s ankle.  This is a pretty classic play on the insecurities of most gamblers (especially in an age where fantasy football is king) – that a single player’s performance will dramatically affect the game in one way or another.  It won’t.  Freeney is a great player, and he won’t be at 100%, but even if he were the plays he would make wouldn’t make as much of a difference as everyone seems to think. Like everyone else, I think this game is basically going to boil down to how well each team’s offense functions.  Peyton Manning is probably the player with the greatest football mind of my generation.  It was incredible to watch him figure out the Jets defense – it was overwhelmingly apparent during his last drive of the first half that he knew how to beat them.  It was like watching a talented mechanic diagnose an engine problem – once he figured out what the problem was, it was just a matter of selecting the right size wrench and turning it a few times. It won’t be quite so easy for Drew Brees, although he’s also very capable of dissecting the Colts’ pass defense, which isn’t quite as good as it looks on paper.  And the Saints have a running game to work with, which will spread them out a good bit more than the Jets were able to do.  The Saints will be frustrated that they’re underdogs against the Colts – this should give them just enough extra motivation to keep this one close. I’ll probably be rooting for whichever team is behind during this game – which I expect will be New Orleans.  But with offenses that are this potent, things can change in a big hurry so I suspect my allegiances will chance once or twice during the game.  I’m hoping for a close game, and as such, I see the Saints covering the spread.  It’s hard to believe that Manning will let this one slip away in a season where he’s played the best football of his career, but I do think it won’t be by more than a field goal. Enjoy the game this week, folks.  And thanks for reading this season.

For legality purposes, this website does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.

Hopefully some of the readers this week include folks who have found their way over from walterfootball.com courtesy of the Punch-Out video I passed on.  It was submitted by a group called Team Awesome as an entry in the Nintendo Short Cuts Showcase contest, and didn’t even receive so much as an honorable mention.  And now it’s got more than twice as many views as all of the ten original finalists combined.  So in honor of Team Awesome, I thought I’d use their fine work as an inspiration for this week’s feature.

(To watch this video, right-click and hit play)

Given how violent of a game football is, fistfights are actually relatively rare.  With all the protective pads the players are wearing, there’s not all that much point.  These days, when looking to cause serious damage, most players have learned to lead with their head.  But there have still been a number of cases of fisticuffs that have, for one reason or another, made it into the legends and lore of the NFL. 

The Top 5 Most Memorable Punches in NFL History:

5. LeGarrette Blount vs. Byron Hout. It’s debatable whether this punch belongs in this countdown, since it happened at the college level.  But given the ultimate effect it had on his career and his draft status, it’s got the potential to be a very influential incident.  After favored Oregon lost their season opener, Boise State defensive lineman Byron Hout threw one too many taunts in Blount’s direction and was paid back with a devastating right to the jaw that would have led to a TKO if it had happened in the ring.  Blount was kicked off the Oregon team following the incident, and although he was reinstated for the final game of the season and was fortunate enough to play in the Rose Bowl, his draft status plummeted as a result of sitting out the majority of his senior season.  It’s not clear which NFL team will roll the dice on Blount, but it’s unlikely he’ll be taken before the sixth round, which essentially means that he could wind up anywhere.

4.  Garth DeFelice vs. Kenneth Darby. Garth DeFelice doesn’t sound like a linebacker’s name, does it?  It’s not.  DeFelice was a referee working the umpire position in a game between the St. Louis Rams and the San Francisco 49ers.  After Mark Bulger dumped off a short pass up the middle to Kenneth Darby, the running back tried to keep DeFelice between himself and a potential tackler, but ended up running into his forearm instead.  While there was no malicious intent on either side, it made for a pretty amusing moment and a terrific still photograph (click on the photo for the full version).

3.  Tom Cable vs. Randy Hanson. The Raiders have been terrible for years, and putting Tom Cable in charge did little to change things in any meaningful way.  But he did get into the proper spirit of the organization by unloading a punch against assistant coach Randy Hanson during a preseason meeting, shattering Hanson’s jaw and leading to a police investigation of the incident.  Shortly afterwards, additional accusations of physical abuse surfaced from two of Cable’s ex-wives and an ex-girlfriend.  Ultimately there were no repercussions for Cable, although he’ll be fired shortly and it’s unlikely that any other NFL team will have much interest in employing him down the road.

2.  Buddy Ryan vs. Kevin Gilbride. During the playoff-bound Houston Oilers’ season finale against the New York Jets, a long-simmering feud between Ryan and Gilbride finally broke through the surface.  In a game where his team was leading 14-0 going into halftime, defensive coordinator Ryan got frustrated with offensive Gilbride’s adherence to the run and shoot scheme.  Ryan felt that Gilbride’s refusal to run the ball and eat up the clock was putting his defensive players at risk, and when quarterback Cody Carlson fumbled, Ryan was furious and lunged at Gilbride, delivering a glancing blow to his fellow coach’s jaw.

1.  George Atkinson vs. Lynn Swann. The feud between the Raiders and the Steelers in the 1970’s has never been matched in terms of sheer intensity.  The Raiders defensive backs had a particular animosity for Steelers receiver (and eventual Superbowl MVP) Lynn Swann, believing that the fleet receiver had a deep-seated fear of contact and could be intimidated.  In a 1976 regular season game, Atkinson delivered a vicious (and incredibly dirty) blow to the base of Swann’s skull, which knocked the receiver out of the game and resulted in a concussion – the second such injury that Swann received at the hands of Atkinson.  I think the hit in question can be seen at the 2:45 mark of this video – it’s about as cheap of a shot as you’ll ever see.  Atkinson was fined $1500 for the incident, and subsequently filed a $2 million slander lawsuit against the Pittsburgh Steelers and their head coach Chuck Noll for his statement that a “criminal element” existed in the NFL.

And now, on to the picks…so to speak.  According to Gamblor’s calculations, neither one of the games this week is worth betting on.  Vegas has set the lines with the intention of getting equal action on both sides of each game, and as things stand at the moment, they seem to have succeeded.

NEW YORK JETS at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS Gamblor’s Pick: Indianapolis (-7.5) Bet Amount: None

WHY I AGREE: Considering pure statistics only, Gamblor thinks this line is a little on the high side. Two weeks ago, not many people thought the Jets would be able to walk away from Cincinnati with a win.  Last week, nobody thought the Jets were going to be able to keep up with the Chargers. They’ve made a lot of folks into believers, but I think this is where the dream finally ends for them. As I mentioned last week, when returning to action after a layoff, Peyton Manning has been pretty ineffective.  And although the Colts covered the spread with ease last week, that had more to do with Baltimore’s mistakes than any particular dominance on the part of the Colts offense.  Now that they’ve had a week of serious football to help them get their rhythm back, I think they’ll be able to put up more points. The Jets simply won’t be able to keep up.  Sanchez has held together remarkably well during these playoffs, but unless his offensive line is able to maintain an incredible advantage via the running game, he’ll be forced to throw the ball in an effort to keep up with the Colts.  I’d love to see the Jets win this game, but I think it’s very likely that they’re able to come anywhere close to the Colts here.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS at NEW ORLEANS SAINTS Gamblor’s Pick: Minnesota (+3.5) Bet Amount: None

WHY IT’S WRONG: New Orleans didn’t miss a beat in their return to action last week, taking full advantage of an exhausted defense and completely shutting down an offense that had put up 51 points the week before.  Having the extra downtime at the end of the season, while often a handicap for most teams was actually very beneficial for the Saints, because rest and recuperation was actually something their players were in dire need of.  Gamblor thinks that Minnesota should be getting more points here – and I have to agree. The homefield advantage for both of these teams was very apparent last week, and both of their opponents looked thoroughly confounded when trying to change plays at the scrimmage.  That’s key, because as good as Minnesota looked last week, they won’t have a crowd helping them this time.  They’ll run into the same problems that Dallas did – and Arizona too. Vikings fans have been dreading an inevitable Brett Farve meltdown all year, and I think this is where they’ll finally have all their fears realized.  We’re all familiar with Farve’s cry of “Blue 58″ but it won’t be loud enough to penetrate the Superdome’s crowd noise.  Adrian Peterson hasn’t been able to accomplish anything lately, and with Farve’s ability to stay in synch with his receivers thrown off, he’ll miss a few reads and throw an interception or two.  Considering how flawless the Saints will be, this will be devastating – because Farve will be forced to throw even more in an effort to keep up. I hope I’m wrong on both of these games and we’re treated to a pair of competitive contests…but I’m expecting a pair of blowouts this weekend.

For legality purposes, this website does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.

(To watch this video, right-click and hit play)

I’m very excited about my feature this week because it’s inspired by one of the playoff games we’ll be watching.  I’ve actually been saving this countdown all season in hopes that we’d see this matchup, and soon enough you’ll understand why I consider our number one entry in today’s feature to be the greatest athletic accomplishment in the history of organized sports.

The Top 5 Most Unusual On-Field Collisions in NFL History:

5. An overhead camera insufficiently supported by its cable system collided with the ground at Qwest Field.  October 14, 2007. I can’t get enough of the overhead shots that these cameras deliver.  It gives you a great look at the action of how the play is developing, and there’s a lot more perspective of just how broad the field truly is and how quickly the players are moving.  I wish they used it on every play.  But in a 2007 game between the New Orleans Saints and the Seattle Seahawks, the camera’s cable system failed and it fell to the field.  Luckily, it was during a timeout so no play was interrupted, and even more luckily, it didn’t hit any of the players – though it apparently came pretty close to tagging Seahawks receiver Bobby Engram.  After a ten minute delay, the camera was lifted back up and parked over the Seahawks sideline and the players scampered every time it came close to passing overhead.

4. A football kicked by Ray Guy collides with the gondola at the Louisiana Superdome.  January 26, 1976. When Cowboys Stadium opened this year, all anyone could talk about was the gigantic television screen above the field, and how every Cowboys home game would be interrupted a few times when punts bounced off of it.  But as detestable as Jerry Jones can be, he can’t be shouldered with all of the blame.  The league set the specification for the height of structures above the field at ninety feet, and he followed that to the letter.  But it also shouldn’t have been a surprise that punters were able to hit it.  After its inaugural season in 1975, the Louisiana Superdome in New Orleans was host to the Pro Bowl.  Since his Oakland Raiders had lost to the Pittsburgh Steelers in the AFC Championship game (which featured the Immaculate Reception), John Madden was coaching for the AFC.  His own star punter, Ray Guy, asked for permission to try to hit the gondola, which was about ninety feet above the field.  The obsessively competitive Madden initially told his player “Hell no, this is a game,” but later relented, realizing that the Pro Bowl was nothing more  than an exhibition and told Guy to “go for it.”  To the delight of the crowd, Guy’s punt went up, up, up, and whacked the gondola.  The rules then were the same as they are now – any put that hits a fixed object must be re-punted – and with his second chance Guy took a bit of height off his kick and sent it 60 yards downfield.

3. A snowball thrown by a criminally irresponsible fan collides with San Diego Chargers equipment manager Sid Brooks’ head.  December 23, 1995. In the Giants’ regular season finale against the San Diego Chargers, a stadium populated by far too many classless fans took out their frustrations over their team’s disappointing 5-11 season.  In a classic case of mob mentality that made Philadelphia fans look like mere vandals by comparison, the New York fans pitched snowballs and hunks of ice from the stands despite repeated warnings from the officials that the Giants were in danger of forfeiting the game.  Eventually, one fan hit Chargers equipment manager (and decorated Korean war veteran) Sid Brooks in the head with a hunk of ice and knocked him unconscious.  Video of this was around up until a few months ago but I can’t find it anymore, and I’m kind of glad – it’s sickening to watch.  Brooks collapses much the same way that Pat White did two weeks ago.  In response to the chaos, the Giants put out a full-page apology in the San Diego Union-Tribune, revoked the season tickets of 75 fans, and pressed charges against a number of fans, including an offer of $1000 to anyone who could identify one particular fan that was caught on camera hurling a snowball and became the poster child for the incident.

2. A penalty flag thrown by referee Jeff Triplette collides with Cleveland Browns offensive tackle Orlando Brown’s eyeball.  December 19, 1999. It was a freak accident that was completely avoidable, and there really was no excuse for this incident to have occurred – and no excuse for Orlando Brown’s behavior after it did.  Prior to this incident, most penalty flags were weighted with metal BB’s so the flag would fly in a straight trajectory.  Apparently it didn’t occur to the NFL that hurling hard metal objects (instead of something equally functional but soft, such as sand) might eventually cause a serious injury – and it was a lesson that ruined Orlando Brown’s career and cost the league $25 million in a lawsuit settlement.  Referee Jeff Triplette had tossed the penalty flag in Brown’s direction, and in a case of bad luck it slipped between the bars of his facemask and struck him in the eye.  After Triplette apologized and the Browns medical staff had attempted to tend to the player, Brown stormed back onto the field and threw Triplette to the ground.  Brown blamed his violent response on having watched his own father lose his sight to glaucoma in 1993, but the league suspended him immediately only to lift the suspension when Brown’s injury failed to heal.  He sat out for three seasons before attempting a comeback, and eventually filed a $200 million lawsuit against the league.

1. A whiskey bottle thrown by a Minnesota Vikings fan collides with the skull of referee Armen Terzian .  December 28, 1975. Imagine you’ve watched your team put together the best record in the conference at 12-2, and along the way your quarterback has won the MVP award.  You’ve scored tickets near the end zone for the divisional playoff game against the Dallas Cowboys.  Sure, it’s late December at Metropolitan Stadium in Minnesota, which is pretty much the coldest place on planet Earth at that time of year, but it’s the playoffs, baby!  And to fortify yourself you’ve brought along a bottle of Corby’s whiskey.  It’s a ferocious game, and your beloved Vikings put together a magnificent seventy yard drive – probably the best drive in NFL playoff history as far as  you’re concerned – to take a 14-10 lead with just five minutes left in the game.  A few plays later and those pissant Cowboys are backed up to their own fifteen yard line with under two minutes left.  On fourth and sixteen the referees give the Cowboys another breath of life with a completely bullshit ruling of a force-out – there’s no way he would have come down in bounds – but it’s not a big deal.  They’ve got fifty yards to go with just twenty-four seconds left.  Staubach’s getting old, and he could never throw it all that far to begin with.  Not like your man Fran.

After the snap, you see Staubach pump fake to the left and feel a momentary surge of disappointment – Percy Howard looks open but Terry Brown was watching Staubach’s eyes – he might have picked it off.  Instead Staubach turns and hurls it down the right sideline.  Terrible looking pass – he throws it off his back foot and with incredible clarity of vision despite having finished the whiskey celebrating the Vikings touchdown you can see that Staubach’s goddamned eyes are closed when he lets go of it.  Should be cake for Nate Wright to knock it down – he’s got Drew Pearson wrapped up tight.  But..wait..WHAT THE FUCK!  Pearson pushed off!  He put his hands right into Wright’s back!  How can the referee not see this?  Wright’s going down, and you can’t even see what happens next because you’re so furious that everything has gone red.  Of course it’s a fucking touchdown, and that bovine sack of zebra assholes just stood there and watched it happen like he just finished sucking off an oil derrick and doesn’t have enough energy to pull the flag out of his back pocket.  He practically fucking smiled when he put his arms up to signal the touchdown.  Oh, NOW the fucking flag comes out, as Alan Page argues with that goddamned crook.  Fuck! Fucking bullshit!

And suddenly everything becomes crystal clear.  You barely notice that you’re wearing thick winter gloves, or that your muscles are stiff from being in an outdoor stadium for four hours during the coldest part of the year.  That Terzian fuck is more than fifty feet away and you’ve got twelve ounces of whiskey pumping through your veins, but when you cock your arm you’re so focused it’s as though he’s standing almost close enough to touch.  Your pour every bit of angst, rage, frustration, and fury into that whiskey bottle in your hand.  Not just about the game but about every aspect of your shitty existence where you can’t seem to catch a goddamned break if your goddamned life depended on it.  This was going to be the year.  This was going to be the year the Vikings finally brought home the trophy after getting shafted the last two years in a row, and that piece of shit referee out there fucked it all up.

You throw the whiskey bottle.  You put everything you’ve got into it.  And your aim is true.  It flies straighter than any pitch Nolan Ryan has ever thrown.  It sails more accurately than any pass than Tarkenton threw in his entire career.  It’s the best throw that anyone has ever made.  Ever.

The bottle hit Terzian in the head, opened up a gash on his forehead, and knocked him unconscious.  An alternate official finished the game in his place. The Cowboys won the game, 17-14, and lost the Superbowl three weeks later.  The pass from Staubach to Pearson is where the football expression “Hail Mary” comes from.  Vikings fans have never forgotten this.

And now, on to the picks…

ARIZONA CARDINALS at NEW ORLEANS SAINTS Gamblor’s Pick: Arizona (+7) Bet Amount: $42.29

WHY I AGREE: Only three teams were able to beat the New Orleans Saints this year, and two of them did it after the Saints had stopped caring about winning.  But a number of teams (Miami,  St. Louis, Washington, and Atlanta) were able to at least keep things reasonably close.  For the most part, the Saints were only at risk of losing when they let an opponent jump out to an early lead.  When they lost to Dallas in Week 15, it was because the Cowboys put together touchdown drives on their first two possessions and held onto their lead for the remainder of the game. After watching the Arizona defense fail to stop Aaron Rodgers a single time during the second half of their supremely entertaining win against the Packers, it’s hard to believe that they have much chance of stopping Drew Brees and his arsenal of offensive weapons for long.  But as it happened, they were able to stop Green Bay for long enough to build enough of a cushion to survive the eventual comeback.  Will they be able to accomplish this against New Orleans?  It all depends on how quickly the Saints’ offense heats back up.  It’s a common saying that it takes a quarter to come back up to speed for each week they’ve taken off.  Which means New Orleans won’t show up until the fourth quarter. Even if you don’t consider the two throwaway games in Week 15 and 16, New Orleans has only been 2-6 against the spread recently.  As such, they are very much like the New England Patriots of 2007, who limped through the playoffs without covering the spread a single time.  It’s hard not to root for New Orleans, and once they do get their engine running smoothly again they’ll probably put up 35 points in a row, but at that point it won’t be enough to cover the spread.  They’ll be lucky if it’s enough to win.

BALTIMORE RAVENS at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS Gamblor’s Pick: Indianapolis (-6.5) Bet Amount: $6.65

WHY I AGREE: An important thing to remember about the Colts’ season is that nobody actually beat them.  And there were only four times that they legitimately failed to cover the spread.  But the first such time, in their first game of the season, was after a lackidasiacal preseason where Manning only played in two of the four games, throwing a total of just 29 passes. Some folks who opinion I respect think the layoff has been too much for the Colts, and that there’s a good chance they’ll lose this game.  I don’t.  But I do think they’ll be rusty, just like they were against Jacksonville in Week 1.  This Colts team passed up their chance at an undefeated season in order to rest up for the playoffs.  They’ve had three weeks to study film on the Ravens – and they’ve already seen them once this season.  Manning is smart enough to make the most of this opportunity, and he’ll *know* exactly how to beat the Ravens when he faces them.  The question is whether or not his offense will have sufficient rhythm to pull it off. When the Colts beat the Ravens in Baltimore by the score of 17-15 in Week 11, it was just a week after their very memorable win over the Patriots and two weeks removed from a tough divisional game against the Houston Texans.  It was an ugly game for both teams.  Manning threw a pair of interceptions and all of Baltimore’s points came from field goals.  The last time Indianapolis hosted a game between these two teams was in Week 6 of 2008.  That game had a lot more in common with what we’ll see on Saturday.  The Colts were still fresh from a Week 4 bye, and were very anxious to redeem themselves after a miracle win at Houston.  The Ravens, on the other hand, were still battered from losing a pair of tough games to Pittsburgh and Tennessee.  The Colts proceeded to intercept Flacco three times in a casual 31-3 victory. They Ravens haven’t been an underdog of more than 4 points this season, and there’s really no good reason for them to be getting so many points now, according to Gamblor.  It’s true that the Ravens have kept a lot of games close this season.  They certainly were in total control of the Patriots last week.  But what else have they done when facing quality teams this season?  The only playoff-bound team they beat during the regular season was San Diego.  By contrast, they’ve been beaten by New England, Cincinnati (twice), Minnesota, Indianapolis, and Green Bay.  Baltimore simply isn’t good enough to dominate like they did last week on a regular basis. Manning’s been too sharp this season for me to believe that he won’t win this game – and although it will take a little while for the Colts offense to heat up, once it does they won’t have any trouble running away with this one.

DALLAS COWBOYS at MINNESOTA VIKINGS Gamblor’s Pick: Dallas (+2.5) Bet Amount: $4.63

WHY I AGREE: Although Dallas is one of the most obnoxiously public teams in the NFL, they were very stealthy in achieving their 11-5 record this season.  They’ve been on a roll since Week 15, when their victory over the previously undefeated Saints shattered their December curse and inspired their defense to serve up the first pair of consecutive shutouts in team history.  But they’re going to need every bit of that momentum (and perhaps more) if they’re going to beat the Minnesota Vikings. These teams don’t play each other very often.  The last time they played against each other was in 2007 (in Dallas, a 27-14 victory for the Cowboys) and the last time the Cowboys made the trip to Minneapolis was in Week 1 of 2004 (a 35-17 win for the Vikings).  Since the coaches, quarterbacks, and most of the key players are all different, there’s really nothing much to be learned from that contest. Minnesota’s only true misstep this season was losing at Carolina in Week 15.  They’re undefeated at home, and the three other games they lost were to Pittsburgh (where they were in position to at least send the game into overtime before an interception was taken back 82 yards), Arizona (where the Cardinals played flawless defense), and Chicago (where Jay Cutler played the best game of his season).  But the cracks have begun to appear in the most important place – the offensive line.  With no holes to run through, Adrian Petersen has been spinning his wheels lately, and Farve has had a lot less time to look for targets downfield.  Against Dallas’ potent pass rush, this does not bode well. The Cowboys will be able to run the ball well against the Vikings.  By limiting the pressure on Romo to perform, Wade Phillips has enabled his quarterback to loosen up and deliver his best play.  It’s going to be very tough to beat the Vikings – especially in the dome.  And the spread reflects this.  I wish the Cowboys were getting that extra half point, but even so, I think they’re the better play here.

NEW YORK JETS at SAN DIEGO CHARGERS Gamblor’s Pick: New York Jets (+7.5) Bet Amount: $10.88

WHY I AGREE: I feel sorry for the Jets here.  The Chargers’ offense isn’t complicated.  Phil Rivers floats the ball downfield and one of his gargantuan receivers reaches up and catches it.  Even though it’s been blatantly obvious what they’re going to do, nobody’s been able to stop them from doing it. San Diego’s running game is useless at this point, and that won’t change against the Jets.  Tomlinson hasn’t had a single hundred-yard game this season, and Sproles rarely gets to carry the ball.  Which means that the Chargers will be relying on Rivers, Jackson, Gates, and Floyd to deliver points.  Which they will.  But the Jets do have a worthwhile running game, and they’ll be able to control the clock very well.  Even though he’ll be facing a hostile crowd, Sanchez will be thrilled to be back in Southern California.  I doubt he’ll be too rattled here.  Without turnovers to work with, the Chargers will get frustrated, won’t get their rhythm back very quickly, and probably won’t be able to build much of a lead, especially in the first half. If that’s the case, it’s anyone’s game.  Phil Rivers is adept at leading his team to comeback victories, and I think he’ll be capable of that here, too.  But this game should remain close enough that the spread will factor in.

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Gamblor is all done gambling for the year.  The spreads during the playoffs are completely different from the regular season – the sportsbooks don’t seem comfortable trying to set traps the way they normally do.  All of the spreads during the wild card week will open at about -3 in favor of the host, all of the spreads during the divisional playoffs will open at about -5 in favor of the host (who are off a bye week’s worth of rest), and both of the spreads during the conference championships will open at about -3 in favor of the host.  They’ll move a bit according to the action on the game, but there’s really no major edge to be found in the spread itself.  I’m including Gamblor’s picks below just for the purpose of giving me something to agree or disagree with, but as the disclaimer below clearly states, this is for amusement purposes only.  I made my own picks during the season ostensibly to prove that Gamblor’s judgment is better than my own, and seeing as its record of 122-130 beat my own record of 119-133, I don’t think either one of us has sufficient credibility to advise anyone on how these playoff games are going to turn out.

With that said, Gamblor is once again in love with the Arizona Cardinals – for even more than it bet last week.  I’ll explain below.

NEW YORK JETS at CINCINNATI BENGALS Gamblor’s Pick: New York (+2.5) Bet Amount: $72.50 (Hedge)

WHY IT’S WRONG: Gamblor thinks this spread is perfect.  Literally perfect.  All 360 models see this spread resulting no side dominating in more than 55% of the permutations.  And I can’t disagree. The game we saw last week really doesn’t have all that much to do with game we’ll see this week.  The last time the Bengals made the playoffs was in 2005, and the last time before that was in 1990.  That was also the last time they hosted a playoff game, which they won (against the Houston Oilers).  Their fans will not let this opportunity to affect the game pass them by. All of the relentless talk about Mark Sanchez’s “poise” pretty much fell off after he threw four interceptions while losing to the New England Patriots in an important game during Week 11.  On the road.  Sanchez hasn’t had much success away from Giants Stadium – in his three toughest away games (New England, Miami, and New Orleans) he’s thrown just two touchdowns to seven interceptions.  And this will be his toughest road game yet. Many of the weaknesses that the Bengals showed against the Jets will have been addressed.  They were wise not to use a vanilla game plan in the final game of the season.  Needing the win, the Jets showed all their cards.  The Bengals will have a more interesting – and more effective – game plan of their own this week.  Injured defensive linemen Domata Peko and Robert Geathers will be back, Cedric Benson will play, and Chad Ochocinco will be 100% again.  It’s not hard to imagine this being a very tough game (that even has the potential to go to overtime), but in the end the Bengals will end up on top.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES at DALLAS COWBOYS Gamblor’s Pick: Philadelphia (+4) Bet Amount: $16.92 (Hedge)

WHY I AGREE: Losing to the Dallas Cowboys last week was a tremendous letdown for the Eagles.  They looked terrible, they blew a chance at having a bye (and home field advantage the following week), and they let their fans down in the final game of their season.  But as strange as it sounds, I think it might end up being a good thing for them.  The Eagles had put together a six game winning streak, but during those games the toughest opponent they faced was the Atlanta Falcons.  The loss to the Cowboys was an important wake-up call for them. Dallas has beaten Philadelphia in both games they played this year, taking the earlier contest at Cowboy Stadium by a score of 20-16.  They seem to have conquered their December curse, but there’s still plenty of bad mojo left regarding their record in the playoffs in recent history.  There are times when teams try too hard, and I think they have the potential to fall into this trap.  Philadelphia can bait them with a few trick plays and double moves that exploit their hunger – look for DeSean Jackson to pull in at least one long touchdown before this game is over. Like the earlier game, I see this one as being a tight contest.  There will be a lot of lead changes, and it should be an exciting game to watch.  But I think the spread has drifted just a little bit too high, and will factor in in Philadelphia’s favor.

BALTIMORE RAVENS at NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS Gamblor’s Pick: Baltimore (+3) Bet Amount: $10.27 (Hedge)

WHY I AGREE: This is New England’s last gasp.  They managed to beat Baltimore earlier this season on the road, but that was primarily due to a dropped ball by Mark Clayton that cost the Ravens a first down inside New England’s ten yard line with under a minute left.  Joe Flacco learned then that he’s capable of beating the Patriots – and he won’t have forgotten it.  The Patriots certainly have plenty of playoff experience – but so do the Ravens.  And it’s more recent experience – they made it to teh conference championship last year, while the Patriots were stuck at home moaning about the inequities of the playoff structure. New England’s secondary is weak.  Against the three most prolific passing teams they’ve faced (Indianapolis, New Orleans, and Houston), they’ve given up an average of 35.7 points per game and lost all three contests.  While Baltimore isn’t capable of those kinds of numbers, John Harbaugh is smart enough to recognize the Patriots’ weakness in this area and make the most of it.  With Ray Rice and Willis McGahee helping to force the defense to focus on stopping the running game, the Ravens will have a chance to throw the ball downfield often.  And Flacco will be capable of executing the game plan solidly. The Patriots offense, on the other hand, is leaking oil in a major way.  Randy Moss seems to wither at the slightest sign of adversity, and with Welker gone the Ravens will be able to smother him with at least two defensive backs on every single play.  Edelman has the physical tools to fill in for him, but doesn’t have the same rapport with Tom Brady that made Welker so dangerous as an outlet for Brady on blitzes and in other tight spots.  It’s not hard to see Baltimore winning this game outright, and I hope they do.

GREEN BAY PACKERS at ARIZONA CARDINALS Gamblor’s Pick: Arizona (-1) Bet Amount: $471.25 (Flip)

WHY IT’S WRONG: Yet again, Gamblor sees this spread as being far too high in favor of the Cardinals.  Last week I mentioned that Green Bay has been costing the sportsbooks a ton of money thus far this season because they haven’t set the lines properly, and I finally figured out why Gamblor always thinks the spreads in Green Bay games are always off.  It’s all about turnovers. Gamblor factors in the turnover ratio pretty heavily – because it’s one of the most important indicators of how strong a team actually is.  This year, the Packers finished with a ratio of +22.  They only turned the ball over 15 times (7 interceptions and 8 fumbles) while taking it away 37 times.  Nobody else in the league is anywhere close to that – and even the worst teams in the NFL (Detroit) is only at -16.  It’s the highest ratio the NFC has seen in the last ten years or so. The Packers are red-hot right now.  Their offense seems unstoppable, and their defense is completely shutting everyone else down.  They’ve won seven of their last eight, and haven’t lost against the spread during that time, and they just trounced Arizona in what they’re hoping was a preview of Sunday’s game.  This seems to be the one game where Vegas is taking a bit of a chance but they’re already starting to panic.  The line, which opened at -2.5, has already slipped all the way to -1.  And at the moment, 88% of the money is on the underdog Packers.  I’m not sure they meant to, but the books are relying pretty heavily on an Arizona win. In the end, I simply can’t be objective about this one.  I hate the goddamed Packers because they’ve cost me so much money this season – $940 in total.  I hope the Cardinals stomp them into a fine yellow and green paste.

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Gamblor finally got things back together, prioritizing its bets very well and cracking its losing streak with a solid performance of 8-7-1 (going 7-4 in games where it had money on the line).  It turned a tidy profit of $70.88 on a weighted win percentage of 68.3%, which helped put a dent in the beating it’s been taking recently.  It’s a shame I didn’t get to recalculate the bets with updated spreads, because it would have managed to win a little bit more, as the bets on San Diego and Kansas City would have increased a bit.

As I mentioned at the beginning of the season, Gamblor is set up to profit the same way that the sportsbooks do.  I’m certainly dismayed at how it has done this season (though the total of its losses can be traced to just two games – both large flip bets against Green Bay), but I’m comforted by the fact that Vegas had a pretty lousy year as well.  Week 7 was regarded as one of the worst weeks for the sportsbooks in NFL history, and Week 14 also featured a series of lopsided bets that mostly went against the books.  There’s really no contest as to what was the worst bad beat of the year for Vegas, though – the incredible comeback of Drew Brees and the Saints over the Dolphins in Week 7.  This game was more significant than just a tough loss for the books on a heavily-backed favorite.  It capped off a week when favorites went 10-2-1 against the spread and an incredible number of parlays and teasers paid off.  But even though the Saints covered the spread in the first six games of the season, their 8-7 overall record against the spread and failure to cover on some very lopsided games has saved them from being the bane of the books’ existence this season.  That honor is shared almost equally between two teams: the Green Bay Packers and the Seattle Seahawks.

(To watch this video, right-click and hit play)

One of the things that Vegas greatly depends on the fallacy of groupthink.  When everyone agrees that something is virtually guaranteed to happen, that’s when the universe will decide to throw out a wild card and the opposite occurs.  The sportbooks normally profit very handsomely off of this.  But Green Bay and Seattle have been consistently spitting in the face of this trend all season long.  With their incredibly well-tuned offense, Green Bay has faced a number of large spreads and has managed to cover at an incredible rate of 10-4-1.  And more importantly, in games where the action was shaded towards a particular side, Green Bay has really hammered the books – the more heavily backed side has prevailed in 11 of 14 contests.  For Seattle it’s been even worse – the more heavily backed team has covered the spread in 11 of the 15 games the Seahawks have played thus far – and the action has been even more lopsided.

To explain how expensive it’s been for the books to take bets on or against these teams, imagine a pool of 100 bettors, each wagering $10 on each Green Bay and Seattle game.  In week 3, for example, 93% of bettors favored Green Bay in their game against St. Louis, and just 4% of bettors favored the Seahawks (who were missing Hasselbeck due to an injury) in their game against Chicago.  At these rates, bettors would have invested $930 on Green Bay, $70 on St. Louis, $40 on Seattle, and $960 on Chicago.  Green Bay and Chicago both covered the spreads, which meant that after factoring in the juice, the books would have lost $833 on the Green Bay game ($873 paid out minus $40 kept) and $775 on the Seattle game ($845 paid out vs. $70 kept).  Extending this system through the entire season, Vegas would have ultimately lost almost $3700 over the course of the season due to the Packers, and an incredible $4800 due to the Seahawks.

These teams have also crippled Gamblor as well.  The computer has gone just 3-9 when it has bet money in Green Bay’s games, losing $548 at the hands of the Packers (primarily due to a pair of devastating losses on flip bets).  And against Seattle it has performed at an even more dismal rate of 2-10, losing $163 in the process.  Who has been good to poor Gamblor?  The Atlanta Falcons and the Miami Dolphins.  Between the two of them, they have performed at a rate of 18-9 when Gamblor has bet in their games, winning $193 for the computer over the course of the season. But who has been Gamblor’s biggest savior?  The Arizona Cardinals.  In the 10 games where Gamblor has wagered money on them, they’ve won 9 times – for total winnings of $123.  Which is why the big bet this weekend is so much more interesting.

This week, like some idiot fratboy that’s hitting up the ATM for the third time because he’s “pissed” at some indifferent blackjack dealer and wants to “get revenge,” Gamblor is ready to sink more money into yet another dubious bet against its nemesis, the Green Bay Packers.  Fortunately, it’s backing its strongest supporter thus far this season – the Arizona Cardinals.  I’m hoping that the computer saved the best for last, because it’s the second 95% bet of the season and the largest one I’ve ever placed using this system.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS at BUFFALO BILLS Gamblor’s Pick: Buffalo (-8.5) Bet Amount: $523.77 (Flip)

WHY IT’S WRONG: The Colts are smarting from the backlash their fans leveled at them after they laid down against the Jets last week.  They’ll probably only play the starters for the first half once again, but they won’t phone it in this time.  Indianapolis shouldn’t have any trouble racking up a big lead in the first half and sitting on it in the second.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS at CLEVELAND BROWNS Gamblor’s Pick: Jacksonville (+1) Bet Amount: $31.73 (Hedge)

WHY I AGREE: I’m glad that the books have Jacksonville down as an underdog here.  Honestly, what are the odds that Cleveland is going to win three games in a row?  They’ll play hard, but they are very firmly in the lower tier of the NFL, and they’re not at the same level as the Jaguars, who will be looking to prove this emphatically.

CHICAGO BEARS at DETROIT LIONS Gamblor’s Pick: Detroit (+3) Bet Amount: $19.73 (Hedge)

WHY IT’S WRONG: Everyone think that Chicago is going to keep rolling after their thrilling victory over the Vikings last week, and I can’t disagree.  Cutler will have been given the boost of confidence he needs, and Stafford is out.  My only concern is that the line is a trap.  This is one of those games that Vegas generally drools over, but in this case they (and Gamblor) can trust the Lions if they want.  I certainly don’t.

ATLANTA FALCONS at TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS Gamblor’s Pick: Tampa Bay (+2.5) Bet Amount: $15.26 (Flip)

WHY IT’S WRONG: Gamblor sees this spread as too low, and I see its point.  But Atlanta is going to want to end their season on a high note, even though the playoffs are out of reach.  Even though Freeman was solid against the Saints last week, he’s due to come back to earth once more.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS at CAROLINA PANTHERS Gamblor’s Pick: Carolina (+6) Bet Amount: $8.14 (Hedge)

WHY I AGREE: This spread is just an estimate – I’ll post my thoughts later in the week when a line has been posted.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS at HOUSTON TEXANS Gamblor’s Pick: Houston (-8) Bet Amount: None (Flip)

WHY I AGREE: Gamblor thinks this spread is just a little bit too big in favor of the Texans.  I agree wholeheartedly.  The last time New England was an underdog of 8 points or more was in 2001.  Yes.  Almost ten years ago.  Vegas is begging you to bet on the Patriots.  I wonder why?

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS at SAINT LOUIS RAMS Gamblor’s Pick: St. Louis (+7) Bet Amount: $6.51 (Hedge)

WHY I AGREE: Standard issue hedge bet on the Rams, who have been pretty solid against the spread.  I’m fine with it, though I’m glad it’s on the low side.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS at MIAMI DOLPHINS Gamblor’s Pick: Miami (+1.5) Bet Amount: $19.53 (Hedge)

WHY I AGREE: It’s hard to imagine Pittsburgh throwing away their own playoff chances, especially after their comeback against Green Bay.  But Miami has a theoretical chance of making the playoffs too.  They won’t, but they won’t lie down either.  It’s hard for me to imagine how they’ll pull it off, but Week 17 is usually full of surprises and I think this will be the biggest one.

NEW YORK GIANTS at MINNESOTA VIKINGS Gamblor’s Pick: New York Giants (+9) Bet Amount: $26.04 (Hedge)

WHY I AGREE: It’s the last weekend, so I’m going to go balls-out and call for the shocker.  The Giants are going to win this game straight up.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS at DENVER BRONCOS Gamblor’s Pick: Denver (-13) Bet Amount: $15.26 (Flip)

WHY IT’S WRONG: Denver won’t lose this game, but they’re not good enough to cover a spread this large.  They failed against the Raiders, and they’ll fail here, too.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES at DALLAS COWBOYS Gamblor’s Pick: Philadelphia (+3) Bet Amount: $23.39 (Hedge)

WHY I AGREE: Philadelphia thrives as an underdog, and just because the Cowboys have had a pair of strong games in December this year doesn’t mean they’ve solved all their problems.  The Eagles have a great chance to steal the bye away from the Vikings, and they’ll make the most of their opportunity.

GREEN BAY PACKERS at ARIZONA CARDINALS Gamblor’s Pick: Arizona (-3.5) Bet Amount: $392.16 (Flip)

WHY I AGREE: This is more of a bet on the Giants than it is on the Cardinals.  If the Giants beat the Vikings in their early game, the Cardinals will play their starters.  If not, Leinart will get the nod.  It’s unlikely that the Packers will expend any sort of effort in this game; there’s a good chance they’ll be playing the Cardinals again next week so they won’t want to risk their star players or give away any of their strategy.  I’m not thrilled about laying down this bet, but the spread is actually what’s convincing me – if Vegas though Green Bay had a good shot at winning this game, they’d put the spread a lot lower.   I just hope Gamblor is finally right this time.

WASHINGTON REDSKINS at SAN DIEGO CHARGERS Gamblor’s Pick: Washington (+4) Bet Amount: $4.27 (Flip)

WHY IT’S WRONG: It’s a bad idea to pick against the Chargers.  It’s taken me a while, but I’m finally on board.  These guys are good.

TENNESSEE TITANS at SEATTLE SEAHAWKS Gamblor’s Pick: Tennessee (-4.5) Bet Amount: $6.92 (Flip Conflict)

WHY I AGREE: I’ve been consistently picking against Gamblor when it comes to Seattle, but this week I agree with the computer.  Seattle’s got nothing left to play for, while Tennessee can salvage a .500 season after one of the most disastrous starts in franchise history.  Chris Johnson will get the ball enough times to get to 2000 yards, and on the way he’ll drag the Titans along to victory.

BALTIMORE RAVENS at OAKLAND RAIDERS Gamblor’s Pick: Oakland (+10.5) Bet Amount: $19.12 (Hedge)

WHY IT’S WRONG: This game will turn out exactly like the Jets game did – with the Raiders getting blown out in an empty Coliseum.

CINCINNATI BENGALS at NEW YORK JETS Gamblor’s Pick: New York Jets (-10) Bet Amount: $126.11 (Flip)

WHY I AGREE: This spread is ridiculous.  Once again, the books are begging bettors to put money on the Bengals.  I’m not sure why, but they’ve got their reasons.

For legality purposes, this website does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.

I have to apologize for the lack of a Simpsons clip or a feature this week – I’m in Virginia for the holiday and there’s no way I’d have time to write a feature AND burn my name onto Dan Snyder’s lawn.  So I’m listening to my heart.  Here’s your picks for the week.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS at TENNESSEE TITANS Gamblor’s Pick: San Diego (+3) Bet Amount: $4.83 (Hedge)

WHY IT’S WRONG: Last week I mentioned that San Diego has to take a game off sooner or later, and against Cincinnati they did.  Sort of.  They didn’t cover the spread, but they did lock up a bye.  With this in mind, and considering that there’s no possibility they can catch the Colts, it will be very tough for them to get motivated to play on Christmas.  On the flip side, this game means the world to the Titans.  They’re playing for their playoff lives, and although Gamblor sees nothing wrong with this spread, for most bettors it feels high.  It seems like Tennessee should be favored by less – if at all.  Most of the money is chasing San Diego, which is the way Vegas wants it.

BUFFALO BILLS at ATLANTA FALCONS Gamblor’s Pick: Atlanta (-9) Bet Amount: $60.82

WHY I AGREE: This is Gamblor’s largest bet of the week, and with good cause.  It’s hard to judge whether Matt Ryan is truly healthy again, but Buffalo have nobody to play quarterback for them.  This game will unfold much the Patriots game did last week, except Buffalo will have less offense and the home field advantage will mean a few extra points for the Falcons.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS at CINCINNATI BENGALS Gamblor’s Pick: Kansas City (+14) Bet Amount: $1.81 (Hedge)

WHY I AGREE: Kansas City has one of the worst defenses the NFL has seen in a long time.  The only teams they’ve held to 10 points or less have been Washington and Oakland (and they would have given up another touchdown to the Raiders if not for Darius Heyward-Bey’s ineptitude.  I wouldn’t trust that oaf to catch a cold.  Maybe the Rams should take a look at him…) and they just surrendered the second-highest total of rushing yards in NFL history to the previously anonymous Jerome Harrisson.  It’s hard to imagine how they could possibly keep up with Cincinnati – which is undoubtely how the Bengals feel.  But the Bengals haven’t secured anything yet, so they won’t take this contest too lightly.  If they had a more potent offense, I’d trust them to run up the score.  But they don’t, so instead I think they’ll play conservatively and leave themselves open to a backdoor cover.

OAKLAND RAIDERS at CLEVELAND BROWNS Gamblor’s Pick: Oakland (+3) Bet Amount: $11.68 (Hedge)

WHY I AGREE: The Browns are nowhere near good enough to be favorites, no matter who they’re playing against.  Even the Raiders.  In many of these garbage games this year, it’s been worthwhile to take the points – and this game is no exception.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS at GREEN BAY PACKERS Gamblor’s Pick: Seattle (+14) Bet Amount: $0.81 (Flip and Hedge)

WHY IT’S WRONG: This spread is straddling the line between being too small and just right, which is why neither of Gamblor’s scheme is particularly interested in this bet.  It’s hard for me to stay objective about either one of these teams.  My hatred of the Seahawks is well-documented – Seattle has lost more bets for me than any other team this season.  But in one fell swoop (really, with one single two-point conversion) Green Bay ruined my largest bet of the season.  I’m a bit in awe of the Packers right now, so that’s who I’m picking in this one.  They’ve got a good reason to play hard (locking up a playoff spot) and Seattle is simply beyond helpless when playing against better teams.

BALTIMORE RAVENS at PITTSBURGH STEELERS Gamblor’s Pick: Pittsburgh (-2.5) Bet Amount: $0.60 (Flip)

WHY I AGREE: I really don’t see that much of an edge in this game.  Both teams have quite a buit of momentum, both teams need this win badly, and both teams are missing important players at the safety position.  The Ravens’ secondary didn’t have any more success stopping Green Bay’s aerial attack than Pittsburgh did, so it’s possible that this game will be a shootout.  Green Bay beat Baltimore, and Pittsburgh beat Green Bay, so I guess I’ll trust Gamblor’s judgment on this one and stick with Pittsburgh.

HOUSTON TEXANS at MIAMI DOLPHINS Gamblor’s Pick: Houston (+3) Bet Amount: $24.37 (Hedge)

WHY IT’S WRONG: These teams are both pretty unpredictable.  Wild cards, if you will.  But Houston has seemed flat lately, almost dropping an important game to the lowly Rams last week.  I think the home field advantage is what this game comes down to.  Since the game’s being played in Miami, I think they’re the right side in this one.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS at NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS Gamblor’s Pick: Jacksonville (+8) Bet Amount: $29.81 (Hedge and Flip)

WHY IT’S WRONG: I don’t trust Jacksonville.  It seems like every time they have a chance to take control of their season, they blow it.  New England is going to care an awful lot about winning this game, and Belichick is going to want to carry some momentum into the playoffs.  The Patriots are capable of putting up bing points at any time, and given that Jacksonville is susceptible to being blown out, I think that eight points isn’t nearly enough.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS at NEW ORLEANS SAINTS Gamblor’s Pick: Tampa Bay (+14) Bet Amount: $25.17 (Hedge)

WHY I AGREE: New Orleans didn’t pull off their undefeated season.  They’ve already got home field advantage throughout the playoffs locked up.  They’re at home for the second week in a row and undoubtedly got good and stuffed at Christmas dinner with their families.  They’ll be phoning this one in.

CAROLINA PANTHERS at NEW YORK GIANTS Gamblor’s Pick: New York Giants (-7) Bet Amount: $9.06 (Flip)

WHY I AGREE: I’m glad Gamblor likes the Giants here – I do too.  As with the Patriots, they’ll be looking to build momentum for the postseason.  Carolina, who threw the kitchen sink and Minnesota last week (and prevailed!) won’t be able to keep up.  Remember how I mentioned that lots of rookie quarterbacks get a honeymoon period in the NFL?  Matt Moore was great against Minnesota, but now the rest of the league has had a chance to study his play.  The Giants will send him home with a solid pounding.

DENVER BRONCOS at PHILADELPHIA EAGLES Gamblor’s Pick: Denver (+7) Bet Amount: $9.06 (Hedge)

WHY IT’S WRONG: Philadelphia has been incredibly dominant.  And despite Andy Reid’s incompetence, they’ve managed to hold it together this far into the season and lock up a playoff berth.  They’re due for a stinker like they put together against the Raiders, but it won’t strike here.  Denver just lost to the Raiders.  At home.  On a last minute drive by Jamarcus Russell.  It’s doesn’t get much worse than that.  Even though the Broncos still control their own destiny with regards to the postseason, I expect they’ll get beat deep, commit lots of stupid penalties, and ultimately get drilled by the Eagles.

SAINT LOUIS RAMS at ARIZONA CARDINALS Gamblor’s Pick: St. Louis (+14) Bet Amount: $0.81 (Hedge Conflict)

WHY IT’S WRONG: Gamblor seems to think that fourteen points is somewhere between just right and too many, but I sure don’t.  St. Louis can’t do a single thing at even an “adequate” level, and while Arizona doesn’t have all that much to play for (coming up short of a bye but having only a very slim chance of pulling off a first-round bye), there’s nothing for the Rams to play for either.  Keith Null is an absoulte disaster at quarterback, Stephen Jackson is far from 100%, and the Rams will have big problems moving the ball.  And the only thing that’s going to slow Arizona’s offense down is having to wait for their offensive linemen to catch up to the line of scrimmage.

DETROIT LIONS at SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS Gamblor’s Pick: Detroit (+12) Bet Amount: $0.40 (Hedge)

WHY I AGREE: Hey, we all know how awful Detroit is.  But who in their right mind thinks San Francisco can cover a twelve point spread?  They’ve only won three games since Week 4!

NEW YORK JETS at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS Gamblor’s Pick: New York Jets (+5.5) Bet Amount: $18.53 (Hedge)

WHY I AGREE: Better teams than the Jets have been underdogs of more than just 5.5 points against the Colts.  But Indianapolis’ philosophy regarding their last few games is well-known, and Caldwell certainly hasn’t given off the impression that he’s planning to risk his stars in pursuit of a perfect regular season record.  He’ll start his first team, but as soon as someone is a little slow getting up, he’ll start pulling them.  And Rex?  Rex really wants this game.  He’ll do everything he can (i.e. blitz) to keep Caldwell pulse rate nice and high.

DALLAS COWBOYS at WASHINGTON REDSKINS Gamblor’s Pick: Washington (+7) Bet Amount: $16.92 (Hedge)

WHY IT’S WRONG: Where did the Redskins go agains the New York Giants?  An emerging theory is that Jim Zorn’s ridiculous “swinging gate” play call at the end of the first half was a big “fuck you” to Dan Snyder.  Let me echo that sentiment.  I’m picking the Cowboys here, but for purely sentimental reasons.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS at CHICAGO BEARS Gamblor’s Pick: Chicago (+7) Bet Amount: $5.84 (Hedge)

WHY IT’S WRONG: How could anyone bet on Chicago at this point?  The Vikings are lucky they’re facing a tomato can like the Bears because it’s the perfect opportunity for Farve and Childress to bury the hatchet with a big win instead of letting this thing fester and blossom into a first-round exit from the playoffs.  A better opponent would make good use of the schism – changing defensive schemes and forcing Farve to audible against his coach’s wishes – but Chicago will have their hands full just trying to keep Minnesota under 40 points.

For legality purposes, this website does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.

It’s been a rough year second half of the year for Gamblor.  Just five weeks ago, back when Gamblor was still in the black for the year, I did a countdown of the five biggest upsets it had predicted so far.  Since then, the computer has had a weighted win percentage of just 39.2% and has lost a total of $361.  So this week, in hopes of reversing this trend, I thought I’d do the opposite and take a look at its five biggest mistakes so far this year – in hopes that it doesn’t make a bigger one this week.

(To watch this video, right-click and hit play)

5. Tennessee Titans 31, Jacksonville Jaguars 13. In Week 8 the Titans returned to action after a bye having lost seven games in a row.  Nobody was interested in betting on them as favorites, least of all Gamblor, who thought the three point spread was right where it should have been and took the Jaguars as a large hedge bet.  But Vince Young was practically perfect in his return to the starting role, connecting on 15 of 18 passes and Chris Johnson ran wild on the Jaguars defense, racking up 228 yards and scoring a pair of touchdowns as the winless Titans delivered an unexpected blowout.

4. New Orleans Saints 48, New York Giants 27. In Week 6 the Saints were being recognized as a fierce offensive threat and had pummeled everyone they had faced so far during the young season – they had won by margins of 22, 26, 20, and 14 points in their first four games. Fresh off a bye, they were facing the similarly undefeated New York Giants, who were already a game ahead of them at 5-0. Gamblor liked the spread of 3 points – this seemed like it would be a tough contest, with New Orleans having a slight advantage for being the host, but otherwise a coin flip in terms of team strength. 204 of the 360 models chose the Giants. But New Orleans put this game away early, racing off to a 20-3 lead shortly after the end of the first quarter and a 34-17 lead at halftime. The loss precipitated a four game skid by the Giants, who have had a record of just 2-5 since being humiliated by their supposed equals.

3.  New York Jets 38, Oakland Raiders 0. In Week 6 the Raiders had shocked the world – as 14 point underdogs at home they actually won against the Philadelphia Eagles.  The following week, hosting the Jets, the spread has shrunk to only 6 points.  Most bettors weren’t tricked, but Gamblor had built up quite a bit of trust in the Raiders at that point in the season.  The Jets ended up demolishing the Raiders, gaining 316 yards on the ground and taking advantage of four turnovers (three by Jamarcus Russell) to shut them out at home.

2.  Jacksonville Jaguars 18, Buffalo Bills 15. The Bills had just fired their head coach Dick Jauron and appointed defensive coordinator Perry Fewell to manage the team.  Gamblor saw a spread that was much larger than it should have been (-8.5) and thought that Vegas was trying to scare money away from the Jaguars.  Everyone expected the Bills to show up to Jacksonville Municipal Stadium in complete disarray and be easily beaten by the relatively competent Jaguars.  Fewell responded by putting together a game plan with a defensive scheme that shut down Maurice Jones-Drew and an offense that featured a heavy dose of Terrell Owens, who caught 9 passes for 197 yards, including a 98 yard touchdown.  The Jaguars managed to score a late touchdown to win the game, but it wasn’t enough to cover the spread.

1.  Green Bay 17, Dallas Cowboys 7. This was Gamblor’s biggest bet of the year (so far) and it seemed like a great spot for the Cowboys.  Green Bay had just suffered a pair of demoralizing defeats – including a loss to the previously winless Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and injuries had decimated their offensive line.  Dallas, at 6-2, was expected to walk into Green Bay and easily walk away with a victory.  But the Packers defense really stepped up, sacking Tony Romo five times and forcing three turnovers.  A pair of scores in the fourth quarter was enough to secure the victory for them, and push Gamblor off the edge of its recent downslope.

As I’ve mentioned above, Gamblor has finally seen a few models crack the 95% barrier, and is going to make a huge bet on the Pittsburgh Steelers.  In fact, pretty much the entire bankroll is on the line this week.  The oddsmakers have decided to stop fucking around with their boring hedge spreads and are finally pushing the lines around a bit – which means that Gamblor is investing in a pair of favorites this week (finally!).

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS at JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS Gamblor’s Pick: Jacksonville (-3) Bet Amount: None (Flip)

WHY IT’S WRONG: It’s a bad idea to pick against the Colts – they’re 9-4 against the spread this year.  But there’s no guarantee that they’ll put much effort into this game.  They’ve locked up the division, they’ve locked up a bye, and they’ve locked up home field advantage throughout the playoffs.  They have never been shy about sitting their star players prior to the playoffs, but since it’s never worked in the past, that all might change this year.  And even if the starters sit, the Colts roster is filled with players that are desperate to show off their skills – they won’t want to be responsible for the Colts losing their first game of the season, so they’ll put in 100% effort.  As far as the Jaguars go, they hate the Colts with a passion, but they’re really not in the same class – even against the second-stringers.

DALLAS COWBOYS at NEW ORLEANS SAINTS Gamblor’s Pick: Dallas (+7) Bet Amount: $4.79 (Hedge)

WHY IT’S WRONG: I hate playing to trends, but Dallas’ woes in December have been incredibly consistent, and Wade Phillips is too stupid to figure out any way to keep up with the Saints.  Sean Payton will have the Cowboys defenders spinning around in circles, and even though Dallas has some offensive threats, they won’t be able to utilize them properly against New Orleans’ overachieving defense.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS at BUFFALO BILLS Gamblor’s Pick: Buffalo (+7) Bet Amount: $30.31 (Hedge)

WHY I AGREE: I was originally picking in New England in this game, but their problems have grown too numerous to ignore.  Tom Brady isn’t healthy and Randy Moss is starting to revert to his childish tantrums, so their offense won’t be firing on all cylinders.  And ever since their loss to Indianapolis, the defense doesn’t feel like their coach believes in them.  I don’t believe Buffalo will be able to defeat the Patriots, even at home, but this game will turn out to be close enough that seven points should be enough.

ARIZONA CARDINALS at DETROIT LIONS Gamblor’s Pick: Detroit (+12) Bet Amount: $15.35 (Hedge)

WHY I AGREE: Arizona doesn’t have much to play for here.  Although they’ll be feeling a little bit of pressure from San Francisco, they’ll be in the playoffs either way.  And they’ve got an easy victory lined up at home against St. Louis next week, so they won’t overexert themselves to defeat Detroit.  It’s likely that Detroit will be able to keep this reasonably close, and the potential for a backdoor cover is wide open.

MIAMI DOLPHINS at TENNESSEE TITANS Gamblor’s Pick: Miami (+3) Bet Amount: $9.57 (Hedge)

WHY I AGREE: Miami has been looking pretty tough lately, and Vince Young won’t be 100%, if he plays at all.  There are five teams ahead of Tennessee in the playoff hunt, but the loss against Indianapolis two weeks ago will have taken away a lot of the steam they’ve built up.

CLEVELAND BROWNS at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS Gamblor’s Pick: Cleveland (+1.5) Bet Amount: $10.77 (Hedge)

WHY I AGREE: Kansas City is beyond terrible.  Cleveland has been playing with heart recently, and although Brady Quinn doesn’t really bring much to the team, he’s got a lot more going on than Matt Cassel.  And Cleveland’s recently rediscovered ground game should be able to pound holes in the Chiefs’ defense, while it’s hard to imagine Kansas City will manage the same against Cleveland’s proud defenders.

HOUSTON TEXANS at SAINT LOUIS RAMS Gamblor’s Pick: Houston (-6) Bet Amount: None (Flip)

WHY IT’S WRONG: There’s no way I could possibly believe in St. Louis.  The one asset – Steven Jackson – is hurting, and they have no offense otherwise.  This line seems a bit short to me (and Gamblor agrees) so I’m worried that something is up with this one, but it falls into the gray area between hedge and flip bets and I’m glad – I wouldn’t be comfortable having money on either side in this game.

ATLANTA FALCONS at NEW YORK JETS Gamblor’s Pick: Atlanta (+6) Bet Amount: $3.99 (Hedge)

WHY IT’S WRONG: Atlanta has got some serious problems.  Normally a single running back doesn’t make that much of a difference (the offensive line is more important), but the lack of Michael Turner has really hurt the Falcons.  And without Matt Ryan, the Falcons will be completely shut down on offense.  Their defense is weak, and the Jets should be able to control the ball very well in this game.  I think they should be able to cover without too much trouble, though a backdoor cover is definitely something I’d be concerned about.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS at PHILADELPHIA EAGLES Gamblor’s Pick: San Francisco (+8) Bet Amount: $15.75 (Hedge)

WHY I AGREE: I know the trip across the country is a long one, and the time change is a headache, but this entire season, San Francisco has only been beaten by more than seven points just once this season.  That game was against Atlanta – who boasts a similar offensive attack as the Eagles – but I don’t see San Francisco showing up flat to this game.  They’ve got a slim chance at making the playoffs, and they won’t squander the opportunity.

CHICAGO BEARS at BALTIMORE RAVENS Gamblor’s Pick: Chicago (+11) Bet Amount: $4.79 (Flip)

WHY IT’S WRONG: It’s impossible to pick Chicago at this point.  Their season is finished.

GREEN BAY PACKERS at PITTSBURGH STEELERS Gamblor’s Pick: Pittsburgh (-2) Bet Amount: $340.17 (Flip – 95%)

WHY IT’S WRONG: It kills me to pick against Gamblor on a bet of this magnitude – though agreeing didn’t do me much good in the Dallas game earlier this season.  Gamblor sees this spread as absolutely ridiculous – there’s no way Pittsburgh should be favored in this game.  The Steelers have lost five straight – including losses to Kansas City, Oakland, and Cleveland.  The Packers have been on fire lately, winning their last five games.  But they very easily could have lost to Chicago if not for Cutler’s horrible interception in the fourth quarter.  And although the  Packers are 4-2 on the road this season, look at who they’ve beaten:  St. Louis (1-12), Cleveland (2-11), Detroit (2-11), and Chicago (5-8).  But that’s not enough to convince me – without Polamalu, the Steelers have been unable to close out games.  I’m worried that I’m going to lose, and lose huge, with this one.

CINCINNATI BENGALS at SAN DIEGO CHARGERS Gamblor’s Pick: Cincinnati (+6.5) Bet Amount: $33.90 (Hedge)

WHY I AGREE: The Chargers have been hot lately, but they’ve got to take a game off sooner or later.  The Bengals can’t afford to.  They’ll throw everything they’ve got at the Chargers, and their secondary might be the first to actually contain Vincent Jackson and Antonio Gates.

OAKLAND RAIDERS at DENVER BRONCOS Gamblor’s Pick: Denver (-14) Bet Amount: $37.49 (Flip Conflict – 90%)

WHY I AGREE: I’d never expect to say that Bruce Gradkowski is the heart and soul of any team, but as soon as I saw Jamarcus Russell’s name appear on the Gamecast last week (I was watching from inside the car), I knew my disaster parlay would be paying off.  The Raiders have no chance to win with him in the game, and they won’t bother to bring any effort to this contest.  They’ll probably sandbag the rest of their games just to ensure they’ve got a shot at getting a new quarterback in the draft.  Denver has a lot to play for here.  They won’t phone this one in.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS at SEATTLE SEAHAWKS Gamblor’s Pick: Tampa Bay (+6.5) Bet Amount: $2.79 (Hedge)

WHY IT’S WRONG: Standard procedure in Seattle games – take the favorite.  It’s only failed once so far this season.  I’ll be rounding this one down.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS at CAROLINA PANTHERS Gamblor’s Pick: Carolina (+9) Bet Amount: $6.58 (Hedge Conflict)

WHY I AGREE: The Vikings aren’t going anywhere.  With a two game lead on the Packers and an edge in the tiebreaker, they’ve got the division taken care of.  They won’t be able to catch New Orleans, so there’s really nothing left for them to play for.  Carolina might not even start Jake Delhomme, which should help them control the ball a lot better, though I’m not really sure how they’ll manage to catch Minnesota in this one – but my gut tells me they will.

NEW YORK GIANTS at WASHINGTON REDSKINS Gamblor’s Pick: Washington (+3) Bet Amount: $7.78 (Hedge Conflict)

WHY I AGREE: The Giants seem overrated at this point.  The Redskins would really, really, really love to knock them out of the playoff picture, and might actually have the chops to do it at this point.  Their victory over the Raiders will have given them momentum, while the Giants are still licking their wounds from their loss to Philadelphia.  Don’t be too shocked in the Redskins pull off the upset here.

For legality purposes, this website does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.

Sigh.  For the fourth week in a row, and the sixth out of seven, Gamblor lost money.  It only dropped $21 on a weighted win percentage of 46.5%, but this losing streak is seriously getting old.  What’s worse is that Gamblor hasn’t bet money on a single favorite since Jacksonville in Week 11, and hasn’t seen a 90% flip bet since Dallas in Week 10.  And to really pile it on, it was a fantastic weekend for the sportsbooks, as Detroit, Miami, Cleveland, and Washington all covered as underdogs and Oakland, Jacksonville, and Arizona pulled off surprise victories.  Gamblor is designed (in theory) to profit alongside the books, which makes it doubly disappointing to have lost money last week.  I hadn’t planned on pulling the trigger on Son of Gamblor until the beginning of next year, but I’m tempted to do so just to keep from having to throw money at underdogs every week.  I guess I shouldn’t complain too much because despite it’s troubles lately the computer is still in the black over its lifetime, but what’s the fun in taking the points in every single game and spending every Sunday agonizing over mistakes by guys like Josh Freeman and Ryan Fitzpatrick?

I’ve made no secret about my hatred of the Seahawks, which is driven entirely by my gambling losses on them this year.  It’s funny how spiteful I can get.  In particular, when it becomes clear that a favorite I’ve bet on isn’t going to cover the spread, I’ll start rooting for them to lose the game outright.  Why?  Because fuck them, that’s why.  And that attitude extends towards the stock market as well.  Once I’ve sold a stock, I want to see it take a dive into the toilet – just so I don’t feel like I missed out on a good thing.  It’s petty and childish, but I can’t seem to stop myself.  A few years ago I bought stock in a Canadian gold mining company called Rubicon (RBY) on a tip from a mining lawyer friend in Johannesburg.  It’s done very well for me (even spinning off a pair of adorable little baby corporations – of which I received a chunk of stock; kind of like getting a free prop bet from the house) and in November I sold it all off in two phases – at an average share price of $4.22.  Shortly after I sold out, it climbed all the way up to $4.50.  It has since sunk back down to $4.09.  Neither of these facts should matter to me in the least, but of course they do.  Instead of worrying about how much money I might have made if I’d held on, or how much money I saved by walking away from the table, I should be thinking about how I’m going to reinvest the money I did make.  Which brings me to my feature for the week:

(To watch this video, right-click and hit play)

When I originally programmed Gamblor, I was using three-letter abbreviations for each team.  I’ve learned how to code things a bit better now, so this isn’t really necessary anymore, but I still use the abbreviations for bookkeeping purposes.  The scheme is pretty simple.  For teams where the home city (or state) consists of a single word (such as Atlanta, Buffalo, or Cleveland), I simply use the first three letters (ATL, BUF, CLE).  For teams where the first word of the home city is “New” (New England Patriots, New Orleans Saints), I use the first letter of each word (NEP, NOS).  For teams where the first word of the city is “Saint” or “San” (San Francisco, Saint Louis) I use the first and last letter of the first word and the first letter of the second word (SNF, STL).  The only irregular forms are Tampa Bay (TAM)  and Green Bay (GNB).  Since I’m looking for new places to invest the profits from my sale of Rubicon, I thought it would be a fun diversion to take a look at all the stocks that share the same ticker symbol as the team abbreviations that I use, and choose five to invest in.

ATL:  Atlantia Spa.  No information available.  Might be out of business.

ARI:  Apollo Commercial Real Estate.  Over the last three months, this real estate investment trust has drifted downwards by a single point from $18.50 to $17.62, but you’d have to be crazy to invest in commercial real estate with the imminent crash that’s on its way.  No thank you.

BAL:  IPath DJ-AIG Cotton.  I’m not even sure what this is, or what exchange it’s on.  Is it a commodity?  Baled cotton?  Beats the hell out of me, and with 29 more teams to go, I’m not going to take the time to find out.

BUF:  Minrad International, Inc.  Again, I’m not really sure what this company is – though it is listed on the American Stock Exchange and has a share price of $0.19, and there’s no trading taking place.

CAR:  Avis Budget Group.  Aha!  These guys rent cars.  But it’s not a traditional stock as far as I can tell, the data only goes back five days, which is bizarre for something that supposedly has a market capitalization of $1.2 billion and a volume of almost 2.5 million.

CHI:  Calamos Convertible Opportunities & Income Fund.   Ugh.  A junk bond fund, and a very poorly performing one at that.  I’ve never been a fan of letting other people gamble my money away.

CIN: Cintra Conc. Infra. De Transpo.  Given the direction the stimulus funds are flowing, I’ve thought that transportation and infrastructure companies might be a good investment in the next couple of years, but this stock isn’t domestic.  Nor is it tradeable for a mere mortal like me.

CLE:  No exact matches.  There’s a couple of Carlisle stocks and a China Prosperous Clean Energy Corporation, but nothing that’s listed on the American exchanges.

DAL:  Delta Air Lines.  I actually looked at this stock a while back and gave it some thought.  It’s a big stock, it has been drifting slowly upwards over the last sixth months, and if I can think of reason why it might do well over the next year, it will be a serious contender.

DEN:  No exact matches.  A few foreign stocks, and nothing enticing.

DET:  Same as Denver.

GNB:  GNB Financial Services.  No history, no reported trade volume, and sold on the over-the-counter bulletin board market.  Very mysterious.

HOU:  No exact match.  Looks like a few energy stocks traded on foreign exchanges.

IND:  ING Groep Perpetual Debt.  Sounds about as profitable as giving your money to “Black Hole Investments, LLC.”  Looks like it, too.

JAC: Jap. Acc. Rtn. II Red SHS.  I’m not even sure what all those prefixes mean, and Yahoo can’t seem to tell me.  Japanese Accelerated Return?  This is a lot like IND and CHI, in that it takes a huge dive in October of 2008 and bottoms out in March of 2009.  Do these have something to do with the mortgage crisis?

KAN:  Medca Japan.  Another foreign stock that won’t come to play in the U.S. markets.

MIA:  No exact matches.

MIN:  MFS Intermediate Income Trust.  Like those other investment groups, except without bottoming out in March.  Looks like they mostly buy mortgage-backed securities, which makes me wonder how they escaped the beating the other guys took.  There’s no way in hell I’d buy one of these things, though – I’d make more (or lose less) money gambling on football, and have more fun doing it.

NEP:  China North East Petroleum.  Ah, finally, a real company.  This one is a serious contender.  I don’t ever feel like oil is a bad investment because the world is definitely going to run out of  oil someday, so the price will eventually go up in the long term no matter what.  It’s got a great Price/Earnings ratio (7.70), and even though it’s pretty small (total capitalization of $150 million) it’s trading at a pretty brisk rate.  The downside is that it’s already gone up 300% this year, so I might be arriving late to the party on this one.

NOS:  No exact matches.

NYG:  Nayarit Gold, Incorporated.  A gold and silver mining company.  If I hadn’t just finished having so much fun with Rubicon, I’d give it some thought.  But I’m done with gold for the time being.

NYJ:  Mercury Recycling Group.  Few details.  Traded on the Berlin exchange.  Is this one of those stocks that’s “poised to explode” that Alicia and Rachel keep sending me spam about?

OAK:  Oak Ridge Financial Services.  By now you know my thoughts on these sorts of guys.

PHI:  Philippine Long Distance Telephone Company.  Despite its name, this actually seems like it might be a pretty solid company.  It’s big ($10.5 billion) and its shares have more or less steadily increased from $22 to $56 in the last five years.  It looks like they’ve kept up relatively well with technology, so they’re definitely on the shortlist.

PIT:  Pittler Maschinen.  Looks like a German tool company. No dice.

SND:  Morgan Stanley Plus.  Ha ha ha ha ha.  I’d sooner leave my money in a room with Ronald Bartel, two quarts of gasoline, and a lighter than I’d trust it in the hands of these guys.

SNF:  Spain Fund, Incorporated.  Same as all the other useless investment funds.

SEA:  Claymore Delta Global Shipping.  Now here’s an interesting question.  Do I believe that the economy is going to start picking up anytime soon?  This fund tracks the Delta Global Shipping index and is sitting right at a nice value – $13 per share.  It’s got a decent P/E of 10.19, and as bizarre as it sounds (and as dirty as it would make me feel), it might be one of the few ways to capitalize on global warming. Plus, it’s a nice calm stock, which might be nice after the adventures I’ve had in the last few years.

STL:  Sterling Bancorp.  Too many banks gambled too heavily on shitty mortgages and mortgate-backed securities, and they’re on their way out as an institution.  Just look at this company’s performance over the last five years.  I’d like to invest in a company that’s run by competent businessmen who manufacture products or perform services of actual value, instead of a bunch of arrogant jackasses who think they can create more money buy simply moving other money around in circles.

TAM:  TAM S.A.  A Brazilian air carrier.  They’re okay, I guess, but I’d be more likely to invest in Delta just because it’s more familiar.

TEN:  Tenneco, Incorporated.  Interesting.  These fellows manufacture auto parts, but their stock follows the same exact profile as the shitty investment groups from above.  They’ve started off well this year but have since gone flat, and it looks like they’re losing money, so it’s hard to envision a particularly bright future for them.

WAS:  No exact matches.

Wow, that wasn’t nearly as much fun as I thought it would be.  I can’t say there’s anything here that really catches my fancy.  I think it’s most likely that I’ll invest in the Global Shipping Index for a modest amount, because I think the world economy will pick up modestly in the near future, and I don’t think there’s too much potential for it to collapse.

Here are the computer’s picks for the week.  Once again, it’s enamored of underdogs, which is a bit tiresome.  When I update later on this week, I’ll pass on Son of Gambor’s favorites as well.  Oh, by the way, don’t listen to my own opinion on these things – I was 4-12 last week.  You’d do better tossing a coin.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS at CLEVELAND BROWNS Gamblor’s Pick: Cleveland (+10) Bet Amount: $44.22 (Hedge)

WHY IT’S WRONG: Last week I expected Pittsburgh to toy with the Raiders, and they did – so much so that they ended up losing the game.  Their playoff hopes are in jeopardy, and when they come into Cleveland they’re not going to take any chances – especially after seeing the Browns almost sneak back into their game against the Chargers.  Pittsburgh won’t let up in this one.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS at ATLANTA FALCONS Gamblor’s Pick: Atlanta (+6) Bet Amount: $15.40 (Hedge)

WHY IT’S WRONG: New Orleans has done a very poor job covering the spread lately.  They’re just 2-4 in their last six games.  But Atlanta’s defense is terrible, and it won’t matter whether Ryan plays or not.  New Orleans is just too strong to pick against.

GREEN BAY PACKERS at CHICAGO BEARS Gamblor’s Pick: Chicago (+3) Bet Amount: $11.45 (Flip and Hedge)

WHY IT’S WRONG: My only hope for Gamblor on this one is that this line is a trap.  Green Bay has looked unbeatable since they beat Dallas four weeks ago, and I don’t expect that to change against a disintegrating Chicago team.

CAROLINA PANTHERS at NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS Gamblor’s Pick: Carolina (+13.5) Bet Amount: $20.93 (Hedge)

WHY I AGREE: Tom Brady ain’t right.  He just had a baby boy and his finger hurts.  I doubt that New England is going to lose this game, but they won’t be able to blow Carolina out.

DENVER BRONCOS at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS Gamblor’s Pick: Denver (+7) Bet Amount: $14.41 (Hedge)

WHY I AGREE: Indianapolis doesn’t care about winning these last few games.  They probably will, but chances are it won’t be by a huge score.  All they care about right now is going into the playoffs with a healthy squad.

BUFFALO BILLS at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS Gamblor’s Pick: Kansas City (+1) Bet Amount: $30.60 (Hedge)

WHY IT’S WRONG: In these situations, Gamblor defaults to the away team with its hedge bets.  I’m glad that’s how it’s programmed – Kansas City is one of the worst teams in the league this year, while at least Buffalo has some potential.  There’s no home field advantage for the Chiefs in this one – who’s going to head out into an empty, freezing stadium to watch a 3-9 team play against a 4-8 one?

NEW YORK JETS at TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS Gamblor’s Pick: Tampa Bay (+3) Bet Amount: None (Flip)

WHY IT’S WRONG: The Jets have a lot to play for – the Buccaneers don’t.  I certainly don’t expect that Tampa will lie down for them, but they won’t have any reason to get charged up for this game.

MIAMI DOLPHINS at JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS Gamblor’s Pick: Miami (+3) Bet Amount: $22.51 (Hedge)

WHY I AGREE: I can’t get behind Jacksonville this season.  I’ve been wrong about them a lot, but even now, I just don’t believe in them.

DETROIT LIONS at BALTIMORE RAVENS Gamblor’s Pick: Detroit (+13.5) Bet Amount: $2.57

WHY I AGREE: Baltimore isn’t what they used to be.  It’s impossible to see them losing this game, but they’ll be conservative enough on offense that they won’t be able to cover a spread this large.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS at HOUSTON TEXANS Gamblor’s Pick: Seattle (+6.5) Bet Amount: $32.97 (Hedge)

WHY IT’S WRONG: In every single game this year when they’ve been underdogs, the Seahawks have lost and failed to cover the spread.  In every single game (except for against Arizona in Week 6) when they’ve been favorites, they’ve won and covered the spread.  In layman’s terms, that means that if you’d always bet on the favorite in Seahawks games this season, you’d be 11-1 right now.  Guess what I expect to happen yet again this week?

CINCINNATI BENGALS at MINNESOTA VIKINGS Gamblor’s Pick: Cincinnati (+6.5) Bet Amount: $41.26 (Hedge)

WHY I AGREE: Minnesota had some problems against Arizona, and I think they’ll still be reeling.  There’s not much for them to play for – Arizona, Philadelphia and Dallas won’t catch them and they won’t catch New Orleans.  So their playoff position is pretty much settled.  Cincinnati, on the other hand, will be attempting to make a statement.  I’m happy with Gamblor’s choice on this one.

SAINT LOUIS RAMS at TENNESSEE TITANS Gamblor’s Pick: St. Louis (+13) Bet Amount: $11.45 (Hedge)

WHY IT’S WRONG: It’s a lot of points to cover.  And Tennessee doesn’t have such a high-powered offense.  Late last season, Tennessee managed to pile the points on against Cleveland in a cover that surprised a lot of people.  I’m expecting the same result here.

WASHINGTON REDSKINS at OAKLAND RAIDERS Gamblor’s Pick: Oakland (+1) Bet Amount: $51.13 (Hedge)

WHY I AGREE: Washington just had their hearts broken last week in a game they really should have won.  Oakland pulled off an amazing victory against the Superbowl champs.  As hard as it is to believe in the Raiders, they should be in good shape to win this game against a Redskins team that has got to travel across the entire country.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS at DALLAS COWBOYS Gamblor’s Pick: San Diego (+3) Bet Amount: $0.59

WHY IT’S WRONG: Gamblor rarely has any interest in betting on San Diego, but the one time it does, I don’t agree.  And it’s simply based on pure contrariness.  Everyone in the country sees a San Diego team that’s on fire walking into Dallas and beating up on a Cowboys team that regularly chokes in December.  And yet Vegas treats this game like it’s a toss-up, with only the home field advantage as the difference in this game.  Remind me – where did they get the money to pay for those hotel foundations again?

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES at NEW YORK GIANTS Gamblor’s Pick: Philadelphia (+1) Bet Amount: $2.37 (Hedge)

WHY IT’S WRONG: Andy Reid will fuck this one up.

ARIZONA CARDINALS at SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS Gamblor’s Pick: San Francisco (+3.5) Bet Amount: $8.69 (Hedge)

WHY I AGREE: Arizona managed to lock down the division with their huge win against Minnesota last week.  They won’t worry too much about San Francisco.  The 49ers don’t have much shot at making the playoffs – but they won’t give up until it’s final.

For legality purposes, this website does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.

Last week started off pretty well, as the computer won money on Thanksgiving and in the morning games on Sunday.  But in the afternoon things turned sour in a hurry.  Gamblor missed its top bet of the week with Chicago, Vince Young’s spectacular game-ending drive for Tennessee forced a push on its third-largest bet, and on Monday night the Patriots got pounded by the Saints for yet another loss on its second-largest bet.  The overall results for the week were a weighted win percentage of 40.3% and a loss of $60.  Gamblor is now in the red for a total of $163 for the season, which is pretty disappointing.  I’ll elaborate further once we hit the playoffs, but the biggest problem it is suffering is that the distribution of hedge bets to flip bets is way, way off from where it should be.  Faithful readers may have noticed a serious lack of bets on favorites this year, which is a symptom of this.  The flip bets are performing perfectly well (even including the catastrophic Dallas loss to Green Bay a few weeks ago, they’re running at about 57%, which is right on target).  Unfortunately, the hedge bets, which were supposed to be an entertaining diversion and a way of smoothing out some of the peaks and valleys of the flip bets, are dominating in a way they’re not supposed to.  As I said before I’ll explain further at the end of the season.  All I can do now is cross my fingers and hope the computer manages to turn things around before it pisses all its previous season’s winnings away.

Football players are some of the finest physical specimens that humanity has to offer.  They might not be the brightest bulbs, but as the fastest, the strongest, and the fittest members of our society, they are the kings of the jungle.  As such, they usually have their first choice of the women.  Joe Namath was famous for his conquests (and possibly even more famous for one particular failure), Travis Henry has had children with eleven different women, the character Wooderson in Dazed and Confused could have easily been based on Chris Collinsworth*, and Tom Brady’s romance with supermodel Gisele Bundschen was so aggressively documented by the paparazzi that a pair of photographers ended up accusing the couple’s bodyguards of shooting at them during their second wedding ceremony in Costa Rica.  But players have better things to do than to hang out at fashion shows chasing models, and the nightclub scene is fraught with perils of its own, as so many players have discovered.  Are there any nice, fun, safe places that a lusty athlete can visit to find beautiful and libertine women in an atmosphere of relative safety, security, and privacy?

(To watch this video, right-click and hit play)

This last week, the sports world has been on fire with speculation about the circumstances of Tiger Woods’ accident and whether or not his wife, Swedish model Elin Nordegren, followed up her accusations of infidelity by smashing the back window of his SUV with a golf club.  There’s no defense for Tiger’s behavior (which seems to have been an open secret that a sympathetic press cheerfully guarded until the story became just too salacious to willfully overlook), but chasing after someone with a four-iron is not an adult way to settle an argument when a quiet phone call to a divorce lawyer would suffice quite nicely.**  It’s an unfortunate feature of the world these women inhabit, but sadly, building an entire facade of self-worth based around fleeting physical attractiveness is very damaging to the psyche.  Models are rarely healthy mentally.  The calm, collected, cerebral nature of Cindy Crawford and Heidi Klum is far less common than the cellphone-throwing assaults of Naomi Campbell or the cocaine-fueled antics of Kate Moss.  Amidst the daddy issues, body issues, and insecurities that often come as a curse to accompany great beauty is a simple paradox.  As the old saying goes: smart, beautiful, sane.  Pick two.  You can’t have all three. Which brings me to my feature for the week. 

The Top 5 Psycho Playboy Models Who Are Dating NFL Players

Warning: Do not click on the images unless you’d like to visit some seriously NSFW galleries.  You’re not AT work?  Lucky you!  And remember, these are ranked according to the level of crazy, not attractiveness.

5.  Kendra Wilkinson. Based on her sunny disposition and willing accessibility to fans, Kendra Wilkinson seems like a genuine sweetheart.  The San Diego native made her first appearance at the Playboy mansion as one of the “painted girls” at Hefner’s birthday party, lived in the mansion as one of Hefner’s girlfriends and charmed viewers of the reality show The Girls Next Door well enough to earn her own spinoff show, Kendra.  Kendra is a faithful Chargers fan who married NFL receiver Hank Baskett in June and is due to give birth to her first child in December.  Baskett was best-known as an Eagles receiver but has recently been engaged by the Indianapolis Colts to help fill a void in their roster caused by an injury to Anthony Gonzalez.  Unfortunately, sweetness aside, Kendra also seems incredibly dim – so much so that she makes Kelly Bundy seem like a Rhodes scholar by comparison.  Hugh Hefner described Kendra as having a “distinctly unintellectual charm” and possessing a “dazed personality and a limited vocabulary.”  When confronted with any situation more mentally challenging than, say, making dinner reservations at the Olive Garden, Kendra’s laudable response is to get drunk and cheerfully take her top off.

4.  Jennifer Walcott. There has got to be something seriously wrong with this girl.  I mean, there has to be, right? Nobody could possibly be so perfect physically without having some terrible psychological issues lurking below the surface.  But if there are, she’s hiding them incredibly well.  Walcott was a cheerleader and a dancer while growing up in Ohio, and started modeling in 2000, eventually being selected as Playmate of the Month in August of 2001.  She writes poetry (good poetry, apparently, since she won a Readers Digest contest), volunteers at the Ronald McDonald house,  and is the spokesmodel for a wide array of products.  She’s married to former Chicago Bears safety Adam Archuleta.  So where does the crazy come in?  It’s a stretch, but first off, the pair have chosen to live in Scottdale, Arizona.  For those unfamiliar with this “city” (it’s an edgecity of Phoenix that gets snippy about its identity the same way Anaheim does about its relationship to LA), the best description of it I’ve heard is that if you spend too long living there, you turn into Cindy McCain.  And second, Jennifer is a health nut, so much so that she chose to deliver her first child organically – i.e. without the use of drugs or painkillers.  I’ve never personally experienced the pain of childbirth, but I hear it’s pretty bad.  She’s taken this organic approach even further by making her own formula with all-natural ingredients.  That’s not necessarily crazy, but when you deprive your child of his legitimate access to such a perfect pair of “birthrights” and feed him a mixture of whey, lactose, protobiotics, and cod liver oil instead, I think it definitely qualifies as cruel.

3.  Heather Kozar. Ah, now we’re onto much more solid ground.  Heather Kozar was the Playmate of the Month in January of 1998, the cover girl in June of 1999, and was later that year voted as the Playmate of the Year.  She’s an Ohio native, which might explain how she ended up getting involved with Heisman hopeful quarterback Tim Couch, who was drafted first in the 1999 NFL draft by the Cleveland Browns.  The two were together until the unwelcome arrival of UCLA prospect Cade McNown in the Midwest, as a draft pick of the Chicago Bears.  McNown, in a pretty major violation of the most basic tenets of the guy code, made a concerted effort steal her away.  He showered her with attention in the form of phone calls and flowers, and even had a Porsche delivered to her as a gift.  Sadly for Heather, she fell prey to McNown’s charms and ran off with him for a while, before he lost interest in her and started chasing another Playmate of the Year, this time 2001’s Brande Roderick, who happened to be Hefner’s girlfriend at the time.  McNown carted his new prospect off to Mexico for a getaway and was subsequently banned from the Playboy Mansion forever, while Kozar was forced to crawl back to Couch on hands and knees (which turned out to be a surprisingly good strategy for ensuring she’d be received).  Kozar’s indiscretions can be chalked up to naivety, and eventually she and Tim Couch were married and have a pair of children, which is two more than the number of football careers shared between Couch and McNown.

2.  Carmela DeCesare. While the blondes on this list have done an admirable job of perpetuating their stereotype as airheaded bimbos, no other Playmate has done a better job of bostering the reputation of Latinas as feisty and hot-tempered.  DeCesare is actually a mix of Puerto Rican and Italian, and began her modeling career as a Playboy Cyber Girl before graduating to a full pictoral as Playmate of the Month in April of 2002.  In 2004 she began dating Jeff Garcia, who played his best seasons for the San Francisco 49ers but also spent time in Cleveland, Detroit, Philadelphia, and Tampa Bay, as well as a short stint in Oakland (given that Garcia’s career competion percentage is 61.5% and has thrown 161 touchdowns to 83 interceptions, WHY THE FUCK DID THEY CUT THIS GUY???).  That fall, she was hauled into court on misdemeanor charges of assault against a girl names Kristen Hine, a side dish for Garcia to DeCesare’s main course, in a Cleveland bar. The compaint alleged that DeCesare was dancing on a table in a nightclub called…wait for it…Tramp before she unleashed a karate kick at Hine’s head .  Honestly, I can’t do this story justice, you have to go here and here to read some of the hilarious details of the testimony in which the judge characterized both sides as “losers.”  Though DeCesare was acquitted of the assault charges, she was found guilty of an even more awesome misdemeanor in the realm of psycho ex-girlfriend stalking – violating a restraining order.  Garcia and DeCesare are currently married and have a pair of children, so it sounds like her wild days are behind her.

1.  Tila Tequila. Sheesh.  Where to begin?  No other woman on this list could possibly compete with Tila Tequila when it comes to straight-up histrionic personality disorder – she clearly stands out as a result of her relentless, desperate, and shameless pleas for attention.  Tila Tequila first appeared as a Playboy Cyber Girl of the Week in April of 2002, and became the first Asian Cyber Girl of the Month.  She attained fame via Myspace for obtaining more “friends” than anyone else on the network – a total currently standing at 3.9 million connections.  Her burgeoning fame and blossoming music career led to further pictorals in the magazine, as well as her own reality dating show (A Shot at Love) where she proclaimed herself to be bisexual and proceded to choose a potential mate from a selection of both men and women.  As far as her NFL connection, it was hard to ignore the incident this fall with San Diego Chargers defensive lineman Shawne Merriman where he allegedly choked and restrained her.  Shortly thereafter, she described herself as “suicidal,”  and after filing a $1.5 million lawsuit against Merriman, engaged in a rambling, drunken rant that pretty much defies description but included her stripping and describing herself as an “angel” who will “save the world.”  Then, of course, a sextape clip emerged.  Her own lawyer even described her as having “gone over the edge.”   Hopefully she’s getting the help she needs, because honestly, it seems like a pretty big job, and our economy could use the boost.

Gamblor’s picks this week…well, what can I say?  It’s the same hedge-heavy garbage it’s been spitting out all season.  I’m very optimistic about the new geography-adjusted model, which I won’t actually launch until next season.  In any event, if Kurt Warner plays and Arizona is favored, that will easily be Gamblor’s biggest pick of the week.

*For what it’s worth, I think Collinsworth is doing a terrific job with his commentary on Sunday nights.  I wish Chris would flay Joe Buck alive, wear his skin for a costume, and take over the Fox broadcasts on Sundays.  The brainless drones that run the Fox Network would probably be too stupid to notice the difference except for the sudden increase in ratings.

**To imagine what this telephone conversation would have looked like in real life, just picture a guy in a suit sitting at a desk surrounded by a bunch of law books.  He answers a phone, listens for a few seconds, and then his eyes start spinning around in his head like the wheels in a slot machine before landing on a pair of triple $$$’s.

NEW YORK JETS at BUFFALO BILLS Gamblor’s Pick: Buffalo (+3) Bet Amount: $16.42 (Hedge)

WHY IT’S WRONG: For two weeks in a row, interim coach Perry Fewell has managed to coax a few heartbeats out of what everyone assumed was a headless corpse.  But aside from their win over Miami, the Bills surrendered a late loss to Jacksonville (!) and dropped games to Tennessee and Houston since they last won.  The Bills pulled off a surprise upset of the Jets in Week 6, but that won’t happen again here.  Last week’s win over Carolina gave new life to Rex Ryan’s Jets, and this game is being played in Toronto, which negates any home field advantage that the Bills would have had.  The short spread makes me a little nervous, but the Jets will be hungry for revenge and should have little trouble dealing with the Bills.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES at ATLANTA FALCONS Gamblor’s Pick: Atlanta (+5.5) Bet Amount: $11.92 (Hedge)

WHY I AGREE: Without Matt Ryan, it’s hard to believe that Atlanta can compete with Philadelphia.  But I also feel like this line is overcompensating for his absence.  Philadelphia nearly got beat by the Redskins last week, and that game will have taken more out of them than they would have liked.  Plus, they’ve got to travel to New York next week for an important divisional game against the Giants on Sunday night.  They’ll be distracted here.  Atlanta, on the other hand, will be stepping up their play to compensate for Ryan’s absence.  They have absolutely refused to go down without a fight in the last several weeks, and they should give the Eagles a tough game here.

SAINT LOUIS RAMS at CHICAGO BEARS Gamblor’s Pick: St. Louis (+9.5) Bet Amount: $18.96 (Hedge)

WHY I AGREE: Gamblor thinks this line is about right, but it looks way too big to me.  Certainly the Rams are terrible, but the Bears are falling to pieces.  They’re just 1-5 against the spread in their last six games, so why would anyone trust them to cover nine points against a team that is 4-2 against the spread in the same stretch?  The Bears will try to run the ball with Forte, just as the Rams will try to do with Steven Jackson.  Neither will have a tremendous amount of success.  Not too many points will be scored in this one – certainly not enough to justify a spread of greater than a touchdown.

DETROIT LIONS at CINCINNATI BENGALS Gamblor’s Pick: Detroit (+13) Bet Amount: $12.12 (Hedge and Flip)

WHY IT’S WRONG: Cleveland’s defense proved themselves far too stout to let a middling offense like the Bengals’ run away with things.  As we saw so vividly on Thanksgiving, Detroit’s isn’t.  Carson Palmer should have an easy time distributing the ball amongst his receivers and backs, as Detroits secondary provides no more coverage than the lovely Mrs. Walcott’s bikini does here.  And Cincinnati will be able to pick off Stafford at least once, so the Bengals’ offense will have some short fields to work with.  13 points is a lot fo cover, but I think Cincinnati will pull it off.

TENNESSEE TITANS at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS Gamblor’s Pick: Tennessee (+6.5) Bet Amount: $15.83 (Flip)

WHY I AGREE: Indianapolis has nothing to play for in this game.  They’ve got their division locked up, they’ve got a three game edge for homefield advantage throughout the playoffs, and all they really care about right now is avoiding any catastrophic injuries to any of their star players.  They’ll come out for the first few series’, but if Tennessee ever manages to take a lead, the Colts won’t bother to chase them.  And if the Colts jump ahead, they won’t overexert themselves to keep Tennessee from climbing back into the game.  Conversely, Tennessee is one game away from getting back to .500 and erasing the disastrous start to their season.  Last week’s amazing comeback will have energized the team.  They’re starting to think playoffs, and the Colts don’t have any particular reason to deny them their dream.

DENVER BRONCOS at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS Gamblor’s Pick: Kansas City (+5) Bet Amount: $14.86 (Hedge)

WHY I AGREE: Denver will really want to win this game.  They’re chasing San Diego and need to win out in their divisional games to get to the next level of the tiebreaker (most victories in common games).  But unfortunately for the Broncos, Kansas City has got a style of play that will match up well against them.  The teams will trade short drives and occasional field goals, and this will turn into a quarterback duel (of sorts) that won’t be decided until the very end.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS at WASHINGTON REDSKINS Gamblor’s Pick: Washington (+9.5) Bet Amount: $7.62 (Hedge)

WHY IT’S WRONG: The Saints seem completely unstoppable at this point.  If the Patriots can’t hang with them, how the hell can the Redskins?  As good as they are, the Saints have struggled a bit on the road.  And the Redskins can play pass defense – after all, they held down the Cowboys just fine.  But I think ultimately the Saints have just too many weapons.  The spread is a half point too small, and the Saints are just too hot to pick against.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS at CAROLINA PANTHERS Gamblor’s Pick: Tampa Bay (+5.5) Bet Amount: $27.55 (Hedge)

WHY I AGREE: The Panthers really put in a great effort to salvage their season, but coming up so short against the Jets will have taken all of the wind right out of their sails.  Tampa, on the other hand, seems like they’re actually having fun again.  They know they’ll be picking up some help in the draft, they’ve got nothing to lose by taking chances on big plays, and they’re nice and relaxed.  With the pressure off, they should be able to do well against the frustrated Panthers.

HOUSTON TEXANS at JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS Gamblor’s Pick: Houston (Pk) Bet Amount: $0.78 (Hedge)

WHY I AGREE: Why on earth is this spread so low?  I know that Jacksonville has a better record, but I feel like Houston is a far superior team.  I’ll be rounding this down, of course, but I don’t see Jacksonville being able to compete with Houston on any level.  Yes, I know they’ve already beaten the Texans – in Houston.  I just don’t see it happening again.

OAKLAND RAIDERS at PITTSBURGH STEELERS Gamblor’s Pick: Oakland (+14.5) Bet Amount: $23.65 (Hedge)

WHY IT’S WRONG: This is a tough one to call.  Pittsburgh has an ancient rivalry with the Raiders and loves to beat them, but the Steelers have done a terrible job of covering large spreads this season.  The Steelers will beat Oakland easily, but at what point will they let up?  They’re not going to want to expose Big Ben or any of their other key players to injury, so once they have the game in hand (probably by the end of the first quarter, depending on whether they win the opening toss) they’ll put Dixon in and let him practice handing the ball off to his running backs.  That won’t accomplish too much, but if he’s given a chance to throw the ball, he’ll kill the Raiders with his scrambling.  John Harbaugh was smart enough to account for this.  Tom Cable isn’t.  I think Pittsburgh gets the edge here, just because they’ll want to show off a little for their fans, some of whom are old enough to actually have reasons to hate the Raiders.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS at MIAMI DOLPHINS Gamblor’s Pick: Miami (+4) Bet Amount: $23.65 (Hedge)

WHY IT’S WRONG: The Dolphins are going to be the unhappy recipients of Bill Belichick’s wrath following the humiliation his Patriots suffered on Monday night.  This one is going to get ugly, and the Patriots won’t hesitate to run up the score.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS at CLEVELAND BROWNS Gamblor’s Pick: Cleveland (+13) Bet Amount: None (Flip)

WHY IT’S WRONG: I underestimated San Diego.  It seems like unless their opponents have defensive backs that are 7 feet tall or equipped with ladders or are standing on stilts, there’s no way to stop the Chargers’ passing game.  Rivers waits a few seconds, floats it downfield, and one of his gargantuan receivers reaches up and hauls it in.  Mix it in with a few carries for Ladanian Tomlinson so he won’t whine, and they’re absolutely murdering their opponents.  It’s not a fancy strategy, but it works.  Cleveland will be lucky to score even a single field goal in this game, so all San Diego needs is three touchdowns to cover this spread.  They’ll get more than that.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS at SEATTLE SEAHAWKS Gamblor’s Pick: San Francisco (0) Bet Amount: $4.10 (Hedge)

WHY IT’S WRONG: Because when it comes to the Seahawks, Gamblor is always wrong.  I’m just glad the Seahawks’ tax is so low this week.  I don’t see any particular reason why the Seahawks should win this game, but Gamblor is just 3-8 when for its picks in games that involve Seattle, so it’s pretty reliable to pick against in when those damned birds are involved.

DALLAS COWBOYS at NEW YORK GIANTS Gamblor’s Pick: Dallas (-2.5) Bet Amount: None (Flip)

WHY IT’S WRONG: Tony Romo’s troubles in December are well-documented, and at this point one has to wonder whether it’s becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy.  It’s hard to believe that the Giants would falter in front of their home crowd in such an important game against such a familiar foe.  If the Giants can get under Romo’s skin early by throwing a few blitzes at him (with some cover provided by the deafening noise their fans will unleash), they’ll be able to take control of this game.  I’m happy taking the Giants as a home dog here.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS at ARIZONA CARDINALS Gamblor’s Pick: Arizona (3) Bet Amount: $1.76 (Flip)

WHY IT’S WRONG: There’s no spread yet for this game, this is an estimate assuming that Warner plays.  Gamblor is with the Cardinals either way; it’s pick won’t change unless the spread is moves all the way down to +7 or so (which it won’t).  Without Warner, you’d have to be crazy to take Arizona here, and even with him it’s a risky proposition (regardless of how much Gamblor loves the Cardinals).  It’s a different field surface, but the Vikings will feel very much at home in the dome, and a quick score or sack will quiet the crowd very quickly.  The Cardinals are in firm control of their division and won’t be able to pick up a bye or homefield advantage, so there’s not too much motivation for them to go wild in this contest.  Plus, Ken Whisenhunt won’t reach too far into his bag of tricks lest he tip his hand on the very solid possibility that these teams will face each other again in the playoffs.

BALTIMORE RAVENS at GREEN BAY PACKERS Gamblor’s Pick: Baltimore (+3) Bet Amount: $15.64 (Hedge)

WHY I AGREE: Green Bay did a surprisingly good job of patching their offensive line problems, but there are still a few residual cracks.  The Ravens will exploit these to an astonishing degree.  Flacco has definitely suffered from a sophomore slump, and Green Bay’s secondary won’t do him any favors to help him get over it.  Fortunately, though, he’ll have Ray Rice and Willis MaGahee to turn to.  I’m a little surprised to see the Packers only giving up three points; I’d expect that they’d be favored a little more for a late-season game at home.

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