Gamblor Raids Again: Week 10 NFL Picks

Written by Football, Sports

Two weeks ago, the computer had its best week of the season, winning $264 primarily due to a big win by the Eagles.  Last week, the computer turned around and had its worst week of the season, dropping a total of $484 on weighed win percentages of 21.0% for Gamblor and a hugely disappointing 1.9% for Son of Gamblor.  I can’t complain too much about last week’s loss; the Eagles just got outplayed by Chicago.  DeSean Jackson’s fumble right before the half was heartbreaking, but the Eagles could have won and covered if their defense had simply been able to mount any kind of pass rush against Cutler.

This is the computer’s biggest betting week of the year so far, with three bets of $80 or more and almost $900 total on the line.  Once again, the computer is putting a tremendous amount of trust in the Eagles, so this season’s fortunes will pretty much depend on Andy Reid’s ability to manage his incredibly talented squad.  Yikes.

Away Home Spread Gamblor’s Pick Bet Amount Son of Gamblor’s Pick Bet Amount Overall Pick Overall Bet
OAK at SND -7 OAK $0.13 SND $17.99 SND $17.86
PIT at CIN 3 PIT $39.78 PIT $47.54 PIT $87.32
DEN at KAN -3 DEN $10.24 KAN $20.06 KAN $9.82
JAC at IND 3 IND $0.53 IND
BUF at DAL -5.5 BUF $10.71 BUF $10.71
HOU at TAM 3 TAM $6.32 TAM $6.32
TEN at CAR -3 TEN $12.84 TEN $12.84
WAS at MIA -4 WAS $1.13 MIA $0.06 WAS
NOS at ATL 0 NOS $1.60 NOS $8.43 NOS $10.03
STL at CLE -2.5 STL $7.65 STL $7.65
ARI at PHI -14 PHI $121.07 PHI $450.12 PHI $571.20
BAL at SEA 7 SEA $1.93 SEA $16.25 SEA $18.18
DET at CHI -3 CHI $31.67 CHI $52.32 CHI $83.99
NYG at SNF -3.5 NYG $3.19 NYG $3.32 NYG $6.52
NEP at NYJ -1 NEP $0.80 NEP $0.95 NEP
MIN at GNB -13.5 MIN $9.51 MIN $9.51

flashfiller

OAKLAND RAIDERS
at
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
Computer’s Pick: San Diego (-7)
Bet Amount: $17.86 (Conflict)
COMMENTS: As a Raiders fan, it really stung to have been right about the Raiders shitting the bed last week against the Broncos.  But I think they should be able to compete with the Chargers, because this is one of the games they’ve been getting psyched up for all season.  By contrast, the Chargers gave it their all against the Packers last week and will be a little bit low on gas in this contest.  Don’t get me wrong, I’m not silly enough to believe that the slumping Raiders can beat the Chargers, I’m just saying that they won’t blow this one until the last minute or so, which means the points should factor in.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS
at
CINCINNATI BENGALS
Computer’s Pick: Pittsburgh (-3)
Bet Amount: $87.32 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: Even though they lost last week, it’s obvious that the Steelers are starting to get things together this season, having won four in a row prior to that.  But the Bengals have won FIVE in a row, and are looking pretty clever for having dumped Carson Palmer and given Andy Dalton a shot at the big time.  Unfortunately for the Bengals, I think this is where their run will end – their wins came against teams like Indianapolis, Seattle, and Jacksonville and I think the Steelers defense has far too much pride to let a rookie take them apart.  I think the computer is making a pretty safe bet here.
DENVER BRONCOS
at
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Computer’s Pick: Kansas City (-3)
Bet Amount: $9.82 (Conflict)
COMMENTS: Kansas City must be absolutely stunned at having lost to Miami.  And it wasn’t like they were nipped at the last minute on some kind of fluke play; the Dolphins simply dominated them from wire to wire, in pretty much all facets of the game.  The only thing that Kansas City did moderately well was stop Daniel Thomas.  However, given that Denver will be completely dependent on their running game, the Chiefs should be able to develop a game plan to shut down Willis McGahee and Tim Tebow.  Of course, the same could have been said about the Raiders last week.  I like the Chiefs here, mainly because I’m expecting Tebow to hover around .500 until he learns how to throw the damn ball, so he’s due for a loss.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
at
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Computer’s Pick: Indianapolis (+3)
Bet Amount: $0.53 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: Defensive battles can be interesting, but pathetically inept offensive battles are much less so.  I’m expecting a comedy of errors throughout the game, culminating with Jacksonville winning by a tight score because neither team can manage much more an a field goal.  Maurice Jones-Drew will be the difference in this game; I guess I’d take the Colts to cover or push here.
BUFFALO BILLS
at
DALLAS COWBOYS
Computer’s Pick: Buffalo (+5.5)
Bet Amount: $10.71 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: Buffalo’s honeymoon of beating good teams appears to be over.  Dallas, on the other hand, very quietly bounced back from their trouncing by the Eagles with a casual victory over the Seahawks last week.  I think Dallas will once again handle themselves well, winning this game by a touchdown or so and covering the spread nicely.
HOUSTON TEXANS
at
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
Computer’s Pick: Tampa Bay (+3)
Bet Amount: $6.32 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: This is another tough game to call.  Houston has been taking care of business quite efficiently since losing Andre Johnson, while Tampa Bay has been slumping.  I don’t really see a change in momentum for either team, so I’m going to assume that Houston will deal with the Buccaneers without too much fanfare here and cover.
TENNESSEE TITANS
at
CAROLINA PANTHERS
Computer’s Pick: Tennessee (+3)
Bet Amount: $12.84 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: I feel like Cam Newton is due to win a game, but I’m not sure that the Panthers deserve to be favorites over a team that has clawed its way to a 4-4 record despite losing their best receiver to injury and suffering through an incredible dud of a season from their star player (who I unwisely selected for my fantasy team this year with the first pick in the draft).  I think this game is pretty much of a toss-up, in which case I’m happy to take Tennessee and the points.
WASHINGTON REDSKINS
at
MIAMI DOLPHINS
Computer’s Pick: Washington (+4)
Bet Amount: $1.07 (Conflict)
COMMENTS: Miami is going to be incredibly fired up after winning their first game of the season in such convincing fashion.  They’re going to want to make it two in a row, and the Redskins are going to make it incredibly easy for them.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
at
ATLANTA FALCONS
Computer’s Pick: New Orleans (0)
Bet Amount: $10.03 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: Kind of like the Patriots-Giants contest last weekend, I feel like this predicted shootout is going to fizzle and we’ll be looking at a final score of 20-17 or something like that.  In a game where there’s no spread, I’ll simply take Drew Brees to pull off the win.  He’s good at that.
SAINT LOUIS RAMS
at
CLEVELAND BROWNS
Computer’s Pick: St. Louis (+2.5)
Bet Amount: $7.65 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: Awful, awful, awful.  Take the points, I guess, which will come in handy when this game ends as a 0-0 tie after seventy-five minutes of play.
ARIZONA CARDINALS
at
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Computer’s Pick: Philadelphia (-14)
Bet Amount: $571.20 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: I suppose I should give this some serious thought, considering it’s the biggest bet of the season, but I really don’t have all that much to say.  If the Eagles execute the way they have demonstrated they are capable of doing, they should win this game 45-13.  If they don’t, it wouldn’t be all that shocking to see them actually lose.  With their backs against the wall, I don’t think they’ll disappoint me again, but I’ve learned not to expect much from them at this point.  I’m not afraid to make this bet, but I sure hope they finally deliver for me.
BALTIMORE RAVENS
at
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
Computer’s Pick: Seattle (+7)
Bet Amount: $18.18 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: Baltimore is a pretty good team, but seven points is too many to be giving away for such a long trip, especially one to Seattle.  I think the Ravens will phone this one in and let Seattle keep it close enough for the spread to factor in.
DETROIT LIONS
at
CHICAGO BEARS
Computer’s Pick: Chicago (-3)
Bet Amount: $83.99 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: I love this bet.  Chicago looked incredible against the Eagles this past weekend, with the Forte’s fumbles being their only serious misstep in the game.  Detroit, like Buffalo, has fallen off its perch and with a one-dimensional offense that features little more that Matt Stafford and Calvin Johnson, should have problems against Chicago’s defense.  I think the Bears will be all right in this one.
NEW YORK GIANTS
at
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
Computer’s Pick: New York Giants (+3.5)
Bet Amount: $6.52 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: This would be a much more interesting game if the Giants offense were actually healthy.  Even though it’s not, I still like them to cover here.  They’ve been playing well lately, and should be able to win or at least take this game to overtime.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
at
NEW YORK JETS
Computer’s Pick: New England (+1)
Bet Amount: $1.75 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: I feel like the Patriots are going to really catch fire in this game.  Too many people have been counting them out lately, and they normally respond extremely well.  Brady will be unstoppable, and the Jets offense just isn’t built to keep up with them, regardless of how awful the Patriots secondary has become.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS
at
GREEN BAY PACKERS
Computer’s Pick: Minnesota (+13.5)
Bet Amount: $9.51 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: Like I said last week, you’d have to be crazy to bet against Aaron Rodgers with how he’s been playing.  I’m glad Gamblor is only betting $10 here.

flashfiller

Week GAMBLOR SON OF GAMBLOR Profit
W L P Weighted Wins Weighted Picks Weighted Win % W L P Weighted Wins Weighted Picks Weighted Win %
1 7 6 2 331 1305 25.4% 5 3 497 2739 18.1% -$375.32
2 7 7 579 1184 48.9% 3 5 1897 4154 45.7% -$66.41
3 11 5 548 686 79.9% 3 4 935 1402 66.7% $136.36
4 6 10 143 572 25.0% 1 7 34 2711 1.3% -$404.87
5 6 6 1 376 679 55.4% 2 3 1 110 287 38.2% -$0.56
6 2 6 1 50 127 39.4% 3 4 28 51 54.2% -$1.21
7 7 4 1 323 1054 30.6% 3 1 663 1036 66.0% -$75.12
8 3 9 565 855 66.1% 3 5 1573 1733 90.8% $266.60
9 7 7 181 866 21.0% 3 2 9 463 1.9% -$484.73
Total 56 60 5 3097 7326 42.3% 26 34 1 5745 14575 39.4% -$1007.26