Gamblor Raids Again: Week 11 NFL Picks

Written by Football, Sports

Gamblor’s having a terrible season, but it’s not backing down. The computer throws its lot in with the Chargers this week, hoping to claw its way back to .500.

This is getting pretty bad.  The computer almost went completely bankrupt last week, courtesy of ANOTHER second-half collapse by the Eagles.  The computer’s losses were championed by Son of Gamblor, who actually delivered a 7-3 record but lost huge on the Eagles to end up with a weighted win percentage of 21.2%.  Losses were tempered a bit by Gamblor, which went 7-6 with a weighted win percentage of 41.6% – still poor, but not catastrophic.

I’m happy that the computer has only got a few bucks on the Eagles this week (which of course means they’ll win in a 45-3 blowout).  This week, Gamblor will finally be putting its money on a solid underdog, in a pick that I actually happen to agree with very much.  By the way, my own picks were 12-4 last week and 11-3 the week before.  I haven’t really been keeping track this year, but I’m pretty sure I’m doing better than Gamblor.  Maybe I should just start betting with my gut.

Away Home Spread Gamblor’s Pick Bet Amount Son of Gamblor’s Pick Bet Amount Overall Pick Overall Bet
NYJ at DEN 6.5 DEN $9.00 DEN $9.00
BUF at MIA -2 BUF $1.28 MIA $5.21 MIA
CIN at BAL -7 BAL $5.38 BAL $17.36 BAL $22.74
JAC at CLE 0 JAC $8.06 JAC $8.06
OAK at MIN 1 MIN $9.14 MIN $9.14
CAR at DET -7 CAR $4.03 CAR $9.95 CAR $13.98
TAM at GNB -14 TAM $1.28 TAM $0.09 TAM
DAL at WAS 8 WAS $6.11 WAS $0.14 WAS $6.26
ARI at SNF -9.5 ARI $20.16 ARI $31.59 ARI $51.75
SEA at STL -2 SEA $3.23 STL $0.08 SEA
TEN at ATL -6 TEN $0.20 ATL $32.92 ATL $32.71
SND at CHI -3.5 SND $193.77 SND $61.81 SND $255.58
PHI at NYG -4 PHI $7.46 PHI $0.65 PHI $8.11
KAN at NEP -14.5 KAN $7.73 NEP $2.23 KAN $5.50

flashfiller

NEW YORK JETS
at
DENVER BRONCOS
Computer’s Pick: Denver (+6.5)
Bet Amount: $9.00 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: This spread has already bumped up two points since Tuesday, and I’m not even sure it’s done moving.  A lot of gamblers assume that the Jets defense, a) being good and b) having had a chance to make adjustments to shut down the option offense are going to eat Tebow and the Broncos like so much horse-fed horseflesh (for that double-horse flavor).  I absolutely agree.  It’s a must-win game for the Jets, and as soon as they take care of business they’ll be able to get back home and rest up for their upcoming divisional game against the Bills next week.
BUFFALO BILLS
at
MIAMI DOLPHINS
Computer’s Pick: Miami (-2)
Bet Amount: $3.94 (Conflict)
COMMENTS: This is an interesting proposition.  The Buffalo Bills started off brilliantly this year but are clearly on a downslope.  The Miami Dolphins were one of the top contenders in the Suck for Luck sweepstakes but have convincingly won their last two games and are clearly on an upslope.  But have these two squads passed each other yet?  Or will it happen during this game?  I don’t think it will.  I think Buffalo still have a few more victories coming their way this season, and this will be one of them.
CINCINNATI BENGALS
at
BALTIMORE RAVENS
Computer’s Pick: Baltimore (-7)
Bet Amount: $22.74 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: Baltimore’s loss last week in Seattle ruined a lot of teasers and broke a lot of hearts in suicide/survivor pools throughout the country.  Was it that much of a shock?  Actually, yes.  While Baltimore’s offense is pretty inconsistent, it was bizarre to see Tavaris Jackson perform competently while Marshawn Lynch repeatedly chipped away short gains running the ball (for perspective’s sake, Lynch gained 109 yards without having a single gain longer than 8 yards).  I think the Ravens will bounce back just fine on defense, but their offense won’t be able to pick up the slack.  Cincinnati looked decent enough against the Steelers, and I think that seven points is more than they’ll need to cover the spread here.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
at
CLEVELAND BROWNS
Computer’s Pick: Jacksonville (0)
Bet Amount: $8.06 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: I honestly wouldn’t be surprised to see this game end with a final score of 3-0.  Jacksonville’s defense has been terrific lately and it’s offense is awful, while Cleveland is pretty much awful in every possible way.  The last time they scored more than 12 points was all the way back in Week 6 – when they scored 17.  I think Jacksonville is actually a much better team, thanks to the talents of Maurice Jones-Drew (perhaps Cleveland would be in a similar situation if Peyton Hills would ever actually suit up) so I’d side with them in this game, though it’s very easy to imagine this game won by either team on a single fluke play, much like the Raiders-Chargers puntfest of 1997.
OAKLAND RAIDERS
at
MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Computer’s Pick: Minnesota (+1)
Bet Amount: $9.14 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: This is a typical game that the Raiders of old should have won, but would have found a way to blow.  Things seem to have changed quite a bit with Carson Palmer playing well again – I think he brings an incredible amount to this team and it’s exciting to see the Raiders’ receivers actually making plays as opposed to dropping balls (or in the case of Heyward-Bey, dropping them into the arms of defensive backs to ruin potential comebacks).  Curiously enough, Heyward-Bey has effectively vanished from the wideout corps.  I think these teams will go blow for blow, with Adrian Petersen running wild and being answered by big plays from Carson Palmer to his receivers, but ultimately the Raiders will prevail.
CAROLINA PANTHERS
at
DETROIT LIONS
Computer’s Pick: Carolina (+7)
Bet Amount: $13.98 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: With the way the Lions have been playing lately, this seems like free money for those who bet on Carolina.  Of course, lots of folks felt that way about Carolina’s game last week against the Titans, which they lost 30-3.  But I think they’ve got a better shot here.  Detroit’s running game is completely nonexistent, and even with Carolina’s weak secondary, as long as they throw a few delayed blitzes at Stafford they should be able to disrupt the passing game.  Cam Newton is mobile enough to elude Detroit’s pass rush, and should put up sufficient statistics to make fantasy owners happy and sufficient points to make gamblers happy as well.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
at
GREEN BAY PACKERS
Computer’s Pick: Tampa Bay (+14)
Bet Amount: $1.37 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: It’s pretty much the same every week.  The Green Bay Packers are facing a huge spread, but you shouldn’t bet against them because they’re insanely good and are playing at the top of their game right now.
DALLAS COWBOYS
at
WASHINGTON REDSKINS
Computer’s Pick: Washington (+8)
Bet Amount: $6.26 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: Dallas really ought to be able to win this game by more than eight points.  However, when the two teams faced off in September – in Dallas – the Cowboys only won by two.  I think they’ve ironed out some of their early-season kinks at this point, though, while Washington has developed its own set of problems.  The Redskins have scored just 20 points in their last three games combined, and they’ll be lucky to add another 10 to that total by the end of this contest.
ARIZONA CARDINALS
at
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
Computer’s Pick: Arizona (+9.5)
Bet Amount: $51.75 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: Arizona looked pretty sharp in their comeback against Philadelphia, but pretty much everybody has been able to do that so far this year (seriously, Philadelphia has allowed five fourth-quarter comebacks already).  The 49ers have been efficiently dispatching their opponents this season, and I don’t really see any reason why they wouldn’t be able to do the same against the Cardinals, except that Frank Gore is hurting and they don’t have the aerial firepower to take advantage of the Cardinals’ weakness in the secondary.  I think Arizona is a relatively safe bet here for the computer, simply because I don’t see all that many points being scored in this game and 9.5 points is an awful lot to cover in that scenario.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
at
SAINT LOUIS RAMS
Computer’s Pick: Seattle (+2)
Bet Amount: $3.15 (Conflict)
COMMENTS: The dud games this season in the NFL seem to be some of the worst ever.  At least in previous years we’d be treated to unexpected shootouts between also-rans, but this year there haven’t been any so far and I’m not expecting that to change.  The residents of St. Louis will probably be spared this mess courtesy of a local blackout, but my condolences to folks in Seattle if you’re stuck watching this mess of a game.  I’ll take Seattle here, simply because of the points.
TENNESSEE TITANS
at
ATLANTA FALCONS
Computer’s Pick: Atlanta (-6)
Bet Amount: $32.71 (Conflict)
COMMENTS: Tennessee keep inexplicably winning games this season, and while a 5-4 record isn’t exactly stellar, it does seem kind of remarkable given that Tennessee’s #1 weapon (Chris Johnson) has been shut down for most of the season.  He had a great game last week, and Titans fans can hope that the taste of success will be enough for him to shake of the lethargy that has plagued him since the start of the season.  I’m not sure I see Tennessee having too much luck in this game, though.  While last week’s loss will have effectively destroyed Atlanta’s changes of winning the division, they’re still very much in the hunt for the wild card, and their coach won’t let them forget it.  I think they’re talented enough to get things together and pull off a solid victory against the Titans.
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
at
CHICAGO BEARS
Computer’s Pick: San Diego (+3.5)
Bet Amount: $255.58 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: Gamblor’s all over this one, and I can’t really blame it.  The Chargers have had an extra two days to rest and get healthy after last week’s surprising loss to the Raiders, and will be focused.  I have the feeling that after their huge win against Detroit last week, the Bears will phone this one in.  I kind of doubt that Philip Rivers is going to blow another fourth-quarter drive, and while it just might be for the backdoor cover, he’ll probably reward bettors that still have some faith in him.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
at
NEW YORK GIANTS
Computer’s Pick: Philadelphia (+4)
Bet Amount: $8.11 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: Are the Eagles finished?  You might be surprised.  I’m expecting Vince Young to take over the reins for this game, and the team will deliver a surprisingly strong effort behind him and come up with a surprising win.  Particularly since I have almost no money riding on the Eagles this week.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
at
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Computer’s Pick: Kansas City (+14.5)
Bet Amount: $5.50 (Conflict)
COMMENTS: The Patriots are ready to get hot, and the poor Chiefs have drawn the absolute worst week to face them.  With Matt Cassel broken and some hapless no-name taking his place, and without an effective running game, the Chiefs won’t be able to accomplish anything against the Patriots defense, which is normally putrid.  And forget about stopping Tom Brady.  This one will be a blowout.

flashfiller

Week GAMBLOR SON OF GAMBLOR Profit
W L P Weighted Wins Weighted Picks Weighted Win % W L P Weighted Wins Weighted Picks Weighted Win %
1 7 6 2 331 1305 25.4% 5 3 497 2739 18.1% -$375.32
2 7 7 579 1184 48.9% 3 5 1897 4154 45.7% -$66.41
3 11 5 548 686 79.9% 3 4 935 1402 66.7% $136.36
4 6 10 143 572 25.0% 1 7 34 2711 1.3% -$404.87
5 6 6 1 376 679 55.4% 2 3 1 110 287 38.2% -$0.56
6 2 6 1 50 127 39.4% 3 4 28 51 54.2% -$1.21
7 7 4 1 323 1054 30.6% 3 1 663 1036 66.0% -$75.12
8 3 9 565 855 66.1% 3 5 1573 1733 90.8% $266.60
9 7 7 181 866 21.0% 3 2 9 463 1.9% -$484.73
9 7 6 400 961 41.6% 7 3 965 4542 21.2% -$425.24
Total 63 66 5 3496 8287 42.2% 33 37 1 6710 19117 35.1% -$1432.50