Gamblor Raids Again: Week 12 NFL Picks

Written by Football, Sports

I don’t even know what to say anymore.  Gamblor has effectively gone bankrupt.  After hitting a peak of +$1,910 after Week 9 last season, Gamblor has proceeded to lose $2752 since.  During this stretch, it has lost money 13 weeks, won money just three times, and effectively broken even twice.  It’s been pretty unbearable, but the side effect is that I no longer get particularly frustrated when things go against me.  When Philip Rivers looks like he might drive the Chargers down the field for a miracle backdoor cover and throws an interception on a ball he meant to throw away, I don’t scream anymore.  When the Eagles blow lead after lead in the second half, I don’t throw whiskey bottles through windows.  I just shrug, write down that the computer was wrong again, and check on  my fantasy team.  I suppose years of rooting for the Raiders have prepared me for this; I think my brain is synthesizing its own version of Prozac to keep me from getting too upset about these things anymore.

The computer has some huge bets on the way this week, but that’s kind of meaningless, because I only have $100 left of the original $1000 I invested a few years ago, so I can’t cover the bets that the computer wants to make.  I’ll push things as hard as I can for the remainder of the season with what I’ve got left, but I’m pretty pessimistic at this point and I’m not going to chase, especially when the computer wants to throw another $400 at the Eagles.  Of course, we all know that this is the point where things will turn completely around, the computer will reel off six consecutive weeks of hitting 80% of its bets, but oh well. I’ll just have to suck it up and start again next season.  Happy Thanksgiving, everybody.

Away Home Spread Gamblor’s Pick Bet Amount Son of Gamblor’s Pick Bet Amount Overall Pick Overall Bet
GNB at DET 6.5 DET $0.41 GNB $0.42 GNB
MIA at DAL -7 MIA $30.94 MIA $31.52 MIA $62.47
SNF at BAL -3 SNF $10.04 BAL $27.85 BAL $17.81
ARI at STL -3 ARI $4.95 ARI
BUF at NYJ -8 BUF $1.83 BUF
CLE at CIN -7.5 CLE $2.99 CIN $9.26 CIN $6.28
HOU at JAC 3.5 JAC JAC $19.93 JAC $19.93
CAR at IND 3.5 IND $6.24 IND $6.24
TAM at TEN -3 TAM $4.68 TAM
MIN at ATL -9.5 MIN $13.10 MIN $13.10
CHI at OAK -4.5 OAK $76.55 OAK $191.47 OAK $268.02
WAS at SEA -4 WAS $9.84 WAS $9.84
NEP at PHI 5 PHI $190.55 PHI $196.96 PHI $387.52
DEN at SND -6 DEN $2.51 SND $21.21 SND $18.70
PIT at KAN 10.5 PIT $16.29 PIT $14.25 PIT $30.54
NYG at NOS -7 NYG $2.99 NOS $4.27 NOS

flashfiller

GREEN BAY PACKERS
at
DETROIT LIONS
Computer’s Pick: Green Bay (-6.5)
Bet Amount: $0.01 (Conflict)
COMMENTS: I’m glad that the computer is staying away from this one.  Given the struggles that Detroit had against Carolina last week, I’m not too optimistic about their chances here.  I’m hoping that we’ll get a good game here, but come on, it’s the Packers.  And it’s the Lions.  On Thanksgiving.
MIAMI DOLPHINS
at
DALLAS COWBOYS
Computer’s Pick: Miami (+7)
Bet Amount: $62.47 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: Picks like this are one of the reasons the computer is going bankrupt this season.  Miami has looked pretty sharp lately, but against decent teams they’re still outmatched.  The computer thinks that a spread of seven points is too low; that this is a trap, but I don’t.  I think that spread is pretty much exactly where it should be.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
at
BALTIMORE RAVENS
Computer’s Pick: Baltimore (-3)
Bet Amount: $17.81 (Conflict)
COMMENTS: It doesn’t matter how bit this bet is, really, because I’m expecting it to push.  San Francisco is headed a long way to play in this game, and both teams will be bringing everything they’ve got to the table.  It’s not very often that a football game is decided – from the beginning – by which team has the better kicker, but I think that’s the case here, and the Ravens will win by a single field goal.
ARIZONA CARDINALS
at
SAINT LOUIS RAMS
Computer’s Pick: Arizona (+3)
Bet Amount: $4.95 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: Sure, take the points.  Why not?  This game is a coin toss anyway.
BUFFALO BILLS
at
NEW YORK JETS
Computer’s Pick: Buffalo (+8)
Bet Amount: $1.83 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: Buffalo is cratering.  The Jets will be looking for revenge after embarrassing themselves against Tebow and the Broncos, and a divisional doormat is just what the doctor ordered.  Without Fred Jackson, Buffalo’s offense will stall, and it should be a relatively easy matter for the Jets to move the ball against Buffalo’s declining defense.  It’s possible we’ll see the Jets’ defense pitch a shutout in this one.
CLEVELAND BROWNS
at
CINCINNATI BENGALS
Computer’s Pick: Cincinnati (-7.5)
Bet Amount: $6.28 (Conflict)
COMMENTS: Cleveland’s offense is an abomination, but it’s hard to accept that a rookie – even one performing as well as Andy Dalton – can be trusted to cover a spread of more than a touchdown.  Regardless of their seemingly endless issues in just about every phase of the game, I like Cleveland to cover here.
HOUSTON TEXANS
at
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
Computer’s Pick: Jacksonville (+3.5)
Bet Amount: $19.93 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: It’s hard to know how Houston is going to react to the loss of Matt Schaub.  I don’t think they will be ready to give up on their season until they get beat soundly by a quality opponent, and Jacksonville is anything but.  For this game at least, I think the Texans will put for the extra effort and open up lanes for their running game, which should lead to a relatively low-scoring game that goes by in a flash.  Jacksonville won’t be able to put up many points so this should be a spread that Houston can cover with relative ease.
CAROLINA PANTHERS
at
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Computer’s Pick: Indianapolis (+3.5)
Bet Amount: $6.24 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: Carolina is due for a blowout.  Against the Colts, pretty much everyone is.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
at
TENNESSEE TITANS
Computer’s Pick: Tampa Bay (+3)
Bet Amount: $4.68 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: I think Chris Johnson’s huge game two weeks ago was a fluke.  He’ll get stuffed again here, and Tennessee will have a hard time putting up many points.  I think Tampa Bay should probably win this game outright, so I’m happy that Gamblor is taking the points here.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS
at
ATLANTA FALCONS
Computer’s Pick: Minnesota (+9.5)
Bet Amount: $13.10 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: The Vikings fell flat yet again last week, and I think the energy they burned at the end of their futile comeback attempt against the Raiders won’t have come back.  Atlanta is going to want to get more wins under their belt as they chase a wild-card berth, so I don’t think they’ll treat this game lightly.  They should dominate.
CHICAGO BEARS
at
OAKLAND RAIDERS
Computer’s Pick: Oakland (-4.5)
Bet Amount: $268.02 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: A week after almost blowing a lead against a 2-7 Minnesota Vikings team that was led by a rookie quarterback and without their All-Pro running back, the Raiders are favored by 4.5 against a 7-3 Bears squad?  I know that Cutler will be sitting this game out, but this line is still goddamned insane.  And Gamblor agrees wholeheartedly.  From the look of it, Vegas is desperately trying to push money onto the Bears and that usually means one thing: a trap.  I don’t buy it, though.  I simply don’t trust the Raiders when it comes to gambling and I doubt I ever will.
WASHINGTON REDSKINS
at
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
Computer’s Pick: Washington (+4)
Bet Amount: $9.84 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: Home field advantage is a huge edge for the Seahawks, and Washington will be making a long trip.  I think they’ll have a ton of problems on offense.  Seattle should be able to win this game solidly.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
at
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Computer’s Pick: Philadelphia (+5)
Bet Amount: $387.52 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: There’s no spread on this game yet, but the computer is predicting that the Patriots will win by 12 points – almost two touchdowns.  I certainly don’t think that it’s wrong.  If I still have some money left after the Thanksgiving games, I’ll probably split it pretty evenly between this game and the Raiders game, and I won’t be all that surprised if I lose both.
DENVER BRONCOS
at
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
Computer’s Pick: San Diego (-6)
Bet Amount: $18.70 (Conflict)
COMMENTS: Sooner or later the Denver Broncos are going to get their comeuppance.  It starts here, I think.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS
at
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Computer’s Pick: Pittsburgh (-10.5)
Bet Amount: $30.54 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: I have explained to my friend Gerry that you simply cannot trust the Steelers to cover a large spread.  It’s not because they’re not good enough, it’s because they’re a shady organization that shaves points.  Be on the lookout for an inexplicable turnover leading to points late in the game the provides Kansas City with a backdoor cover.
NEW YORK GIANTS
at
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
Computer’s Pick: New Orleans (-7)
Bet Amount: $1.28 (Conflict)
COMMENTS: I can’t help but envision the Saints massacring the Giants in this game.  It’s just my gut feeling on this one.

flashfiller

Week GAMBLOR SON OF GAMBLOR Profit
W L P Weighted Wins Weighted Picks Weighted Win % W L P Weighted Wins Weighted Picks Weighted Win %
1 7 6 2 331 1305 25.4% 5 3 497 2739 18.1% -$375.32
2 7 7 579 1184 48.9% 3 5 1897 4154 45.7% -$66.41
3 11 5 548 686 79.9% 3 4 935 1402 66.7% $136.36
4 6 10 143 572 25.0% 1 7 34 2711 1.3% -$404.87
5 6 6 1 376 679 55.4% 2 3 1 110 287 38.2% -$0.56
6 2 6 1 50 127 39.4% 3 4 28 51 54.2% -$1.21
7 7 4 1 323 1054 30.6% 3 1 663 1036 66.0% -$75.12
8 3 9 565 855 66.1% 3 5 1573 1733 90.8% $266.60
9 7 7 181 866 21.0% 3 2 9 463 1.9% -$484.73
10 7 6 400 961 41.6% 7 3 965 4542 21.2% -$425.24
11 5 7 2 114 1010 11.3% 4 4 2 153 968 15.8% -$297.97
Total 68 73 7 3610 9297 38.8% 37 41 3 6863 20085 34.2% -$1730.47