Gamblor Raids Again: Week 13 NFL Picks

Written by Football, Sports

I have to say, at this point the only positive thing I can find to say is that I’m glad I didn’t have much money left to lose last week.  After starting off with a solid Thanksgiving by hitting both its bets, the computer proceeded to lose in an epic fashion on Sunday, going just 2-5 and whiffing on its biggest pick of the week, the Eagles – again.  Here’s the thing.  Something very strange is happening with the sportsbooks this year.  Back in Week 1, I complained about the line on the New England-Miami game, which opened with the Patriots favored by a ridiculously low margin of 3 points.  The line shot all the way up to 7, but then slipped back down to 6.5.  Essentially, the books were begging people to bet on the Patriots.  It was such a terrible line that I refused to make the bet, even though Gamblor was screaming that it was a trap.  Well, it wasn’ t a trap, and the books lost a boatload of money as a result.  This past week, the New England-Philadelphia game opened with the Patriots favored by 3.5.  Despite everyone throwing every stray nickel they could get their hands on to throw money at the Patriots, the slipped to 3 over the weekend – inviting yet more money onto the Patriots.  Once again, the Patriots blew out their competition and cost the books a fortune.  I don’t know why the books keep giving away free money like his – the traditional powerhouses are performing brilliantly against the spread.  Green Bay is 8-3.  New England is 7-4.  New Orleans is 7-4.  Baltimore is 6-4-1.  Other teams that are having good seasons are also solid.  San Francisco is 9-1-1.  Detroit is 6-4-1.  Chicago is 6-5.  Houston is 7-3-1.  Cincinnati is 7-3-1.  Of the ten teams that have records of 7-4 or better, only three of them are below .500 against the spread – Dallas at 4-6-1 and Pittsburgh at 5-6, and Atlanta at 4-5-2.  That’s just bad news for Vegas – it’s far too easy for gamblers to just bet on good teams and clean up this year.  It doesn’t make much sense to me, but I’m sure Vegas is up to something – as always.  Unfortunately, what they’re up to this year is making poor Gamblor go broke.

 

Away Home Spread Gamblor’s Pick Bet Amount Son of Gamblor’s Pick Bet Amount Overall Pick Overall Bet
PHI at SEA 3 SEA $10.76 SEA $10.76
TEN at BUF -1.5 TEN $5.89 BUF $0.82 TEN $5.07
KAN at CHI -7 KAN $1.30 KAN $2.26 KAN
OAK at MIA -3 OAK $2.88 MIA $118.44 MIA $115.56
CIN at PIT -6.5 PIT $0.89 PIT $14.51 PIT $15.40
NYJ at WAS 3 WAS $10.90 WAS $10.90
ATL at HOU 3 ATL $102.81 ATL $93.94 ATL $196.75
CAR at TAM -3 CAR $4.39 CAR
DEN at MIN -1.5 DEN $7.47 DEN $7.47
IND at NEP -20.5 IND $2.60 IND $2.60 IND $5.20
BAL at CLE 6.5 CLE $2.12 CLE
STL at SNF -13.5 STL $5.00 STL $9.24 STL $14.24
DAL at ARI 4.5 ARI $8.36 ARI $0.09 ARI $8.45
GNB at NYG 7.5 NYG $9.60 NYG $9.60
DET at NOS -9 DET $2.60 NOS $6.89 NOS
SND at JAC 3 JAC $0.96 JAC

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PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
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SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
Computer’s Pick: Seattle (+3)
Bet Amount: $10.76 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: I guess at some point before the season started, this seemed like it would be an interesting game, but it certainly doesn’t anymore.  I think Philadelphia is ready to quit, and Seattle will feast upon the opportunity.  Expect a lot of dumb mistakes and penalties from the Eagles, and expect Seattle to capitalize on them in front of a grateful home crowd.
TENNESSEE TITANS
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BUFFALO BILLS
Computer’s Pick: Tennessee (+1.5)
Bet Amount: $5.07 (Conflict)
COMMENTS: The Bills are in full-on nosedive mode, having lost four in a row after last week’s tough loss to the Bills.  I’ve got nothing against the Bills, but it was pretty sweet poetic justice to see Stevie Johnson drop a pass that would have put the Bills inside the twenty with thirty seconds left (and might have even gone for a touchdown) after his tasteless mocking of Plaxico Burress during an earlier touchdown celebration.  I think Chris Johnson got a taste of the good life last week with his huge effort, and I think he’s going to absolutely run wild all over the Bills here.  Tennessee seems like a good bet here.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
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CHICAGO BEARS
Computer’s Pick: Kansas City (+7)
Bet Amount: $3.56 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: I think the Bears will be able to cover this spread simply by defensive plays along.  I predict one pick-six, one strip-six, and one safety.  Also, wouldn’t it be cool if instead of one team gaining two points for a safety, the other team lost two points?  That way you could have negative scores.  I know that’s pretty meaningless when all is said and done, but I still think it would be an excellent way of establishing a team’s complete and total dominance of their opponent; the kind of dominance the Bears will establish over the Chiefs here.
OAKLAND RAIDERS
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MIAMI DOLPHINS
Computer’s Pick: Miami (-3)
Bet Amount: $115.56 (Conflict)
COMMENTS: The Raiders are pretty predictable in these situations – they won’t focus properly on the Dolphins, considering them to be an inferior opponent.  They’ll look ahead to their upcoming game with the Packers instead, and by halftime they’ll realize that they’re going to lose both games and start committing stupid penalties.  I hope I’m wrong, but I’d definitely bet on Miami here if I actually had the money.
CINCINNATI BENGALS
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PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Computer’s Pick: Pittsburgh (-6.5)
Bet Amount: $15.40 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: Now that Pittsburgh has managed to a get a shady instance of point-shaving behind them, I think they’re due for a solid victory.  Cincinnati is still looking pretty good, but I think they’re starting to run out of gas.
NEW YORK JETS
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WASHINGTON REDSKINS
Computer’s Pick: Washington (+3)
Bet Amount: $10.90 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: It’s kind of hard to know what’s going on with the Redskins.  They’re talented enough to keep things close against good teams – nobody’s blowing them out – but they usually lose.  And the point totals in their games are pretty unusual – 11-19; 16-18; stuff like that.  So what would normally be a straightforward field goal spread becomes meaningless.  I like the Jets here, simply because the Redskins keep getting beat; I’m hoping that last week’s late win against the Bills energized them.
ATLANTA FALCONS
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HOUSTON TEXANS
Computer’s Pick: Atlanta (-3)
Bet Amount: $196.75 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: This line has been adjusted quite a bit to account for Matt Schaub’s absence, which is why Gamblor thinks it’s so outrageous.  I think after last week’s win, the Texans really aren’t ready to give up on their season.  They’ll pound away at the Falcons (to little avail, based on Atlanta’s ground defense thus far this season) and keep things relatively close, which means the spread has a good chance of factoring in.  I fear that Gamblor is going to get burned yet again on one of its big bets here.
CAROLINA PANTHERS
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TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
Computer’s Pick: Carolina (+3)
Bet Amount: $4.39 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: The only real difference I see in this game is that Carolina will care, while Tampa Bay won’t.  Which suggests good things for the Panthers.
DENVER BRONCOS
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MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Computer’s Pick: Denver (+1.5)
Bet Amount: $7.47 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: Provided that Adrian Peterson sits, this is going to be an ugly, ugly game.  Lots of mushy stalled drives and punts, followed up with Tebow’s typical late-game heroics to deliver the Broncos another inexplicable victory.  The points are a gift here.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
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NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Computer’s Pick: Indianapolis (+20.5)
Bet Amount: $5.20 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: While it’s not inconceivable that the Patriots could put up 60 points in this contest, I think the real stars of this game will be their defense.  They’ve been mocked all season long, and I think they’ll really shine when given the opportunity to face a third-string quarterback who will be forced to air it out 50 times after his team falls behind by three touchdowns in the first quarter.
BALTIMORE RAVENS
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CLEVELAND BROWNS
Computer’s Pick: Cleveland (+6.5)
Bet Amount: $2.12 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: Baltimore really isn’t built to blow anyone out, but they’ll be facing a familiar opponent here who they’ve beaten six times in a row.  They shouldn’t have any trouble winning this game, and I don’t think Cleveland’s good enough to manage a backdoor cover.
SAINT LOUIS RAMS
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SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
Computer’s Pick: St. Louis (+13.5)
Bet Amount: $14.24 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: Again, I’m not convinced that San Francisco has the horsepower to deliver a blowout victory that they’ll need to cover this kind of spread.  Normally I’d expect for the spread to factor in, but this season…I just don’t know.  It’s hard to argue against a team that has only failed to cover the spread once this season.  But they’ve only covered a spread this big three times.  So I’m undecided.  I guess I’ll stick with my gut and take the Rams.
DALLAS COWBOYS
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ARIZONA CARDINALS
Computer’s Pick: Arizona (+4.5)
Bet Amount: $8.45 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: Arizona will deliver a surprise upset here.  You heard it here first.  There’s no way that Vegas takes a hit when 92% of the money is already on the Cowboys.
GREEN BAY PACKERS
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NEW YORK GIANTS
Computer’s Pick: New York Giants (+7.5)
Bet Amount: $9.60 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: The books are handing out free money with the Packers this year.  For real.  Normally, it’s a bad idea to simply throw money at the previous year’s Superbowl winner.  The last five Superbowl winners (NOS, PIT, NYG, IND, and PIT) were a combined 40-42-1 against the spread in the year following their victory.  Not this year, though.  Green Bay is 8-3 so far this season, and they’re not slowing down.
DETROIT LIONS
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NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
Computer’s Pick: New Orleans (-9)
Bet Amount: $4.29 (Conflict)
COMMENTS: Will Suh be suspended for this game?  Would it really matter?  The Saints are looking sharp, and they’re far too competent to allow the Saints to make a second-half comeback if they fall behind.  Which they will.  I think the Saints will build a nice lead, and then just keep building it until the final whistle.
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
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JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
Computer’s Pick: Jacksonville (+3)
Bet Amount: $0.96 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: San Diego, but only because they’re playing for pride at this point.  Phillip Rivers won’t let them pack things in at this point.

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Week GAMBLOR SON OF GAMBLOR Profit
W L P Weighted Wins Weighted Picks Weighted Win % W L P Weighted Wins Weighted Picks Weighted Win %
1 7 6 2 331 1305 25.4% 5 3 497 2739 18.1% -$375.32
2 7 7 579 1184 48.9% 3 5 1897 4154 45.7% -$66.41
3 11 5 548 686 79.9% 3 4 935 1402 66.7% $136.36
4 6 10 143 572 25.0% 1 7 34 2711 1.3% -$404.87
5 6 6 1 376 679 55.4% 2 3 1 110 287 38.2% -$0.56
6 2 6 1 50 127 39.4% 3 4 28 51 54.2% -$1.21
7 7 4 1 323 1054 30.6% 3 1 663 1036 66.0% -$75.12
8 3 9 565 855 66.1% 3 5 1573 1733 90.8% $266.60
9 7 7 181 866 21.0% 3 2 9 463 1.9% -$484.73
10 7 6 400 961 41.6% 7 3 965 4542 21.2% -$425.24
11 5 7 2 114 1010 11.3% 4 4 2 153 968 15.8% -$297.97
12 7 9 358 1538 23.3% 5 5 1540 3751 41.1% -$330.38
Total 75 82 7 3968 10835 36.6% 42 46 3 8403 23835 35.3% -$2060.85