Gamblor Raids Again: Week 14 NFL Picks

Written by Football, Sports

Away Home Spread Gamblor’s Pick Bet Amount Son of Gamblor’s Pick Bet Amount Overall Pick Overall Bet
CLE at PIT -14 CLE $3.46 PIT $1.32 CLE
IND at BAL -16.5 IND $4.50 IND
HOU at CIN -3 CIN $155.89 CIN $285.48 CIN $441.37
KAN at NYJ -9 KAN $10.94 NYJ $29.98 NYJ $19.04
MIN at DET -7 MIN $9.00 MIN $9.00
NOS at TEN 3.5 TEN NOS $0.33 NOS
PHI at MIA -3 PHI $24.02 PHI $10.17 PHI $34.19
NEP at WAS 8 WAS $179.43 WAS $196.69 WAS $376.12
ATL at CAR 3 CAR $10.87 CAR $10.87
TAM at JAC 0 TAM $11.01 TAM $11.01
SNF at ARI 4 ARI $3.74 ARI $3.91 ARI $7.64
CHI at DEN -3.5 DEN DEN $13.77 DEN $13.77
OAK at GNB -11 OAK $3.88 OAK
BUF at SND -7 BUF $13.91 SND $4.73 BUF $9.19
NYG at DAL -3 NYG $38.21 NYG $35.28 NYG $73.49
STL at SEA -6 STL $3.12 STL $0.19 STL

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CLEVELAND BROWNS
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PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Computer’s Pick: Cleveland (+14)
Bet Amount: $2.14 (Conflict)
COMMENTS: This should be another easy walkthrough for Pittsburgh, but as I keep saying, you really can’t trust them to cover big spreads like this.  They won’t always shave points, but they’ll burn you far too often to make it worth taking the chance.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
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BALTIMORE RAVENS
Computer’s Pick: Indianapolis (+16.5)
Bet Amount: $4.50 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: I’m sorry, but if the Patriots couldn’t cover 20.5 points against the Colts, there’s no way that Baltimore’s pedestrian offense is going to cover 16.5.  The computer thinks this spread is just about right, though.  I know that Indianapolis is terrible, but there’s no way that Baltimore has enough offensive firepower to blow them out so thoroughly.
HOUSTON TEXANS
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CINCINNATI BENGALS
Computer’s Pick: Cincinnati (-3)
Bet Amount: $441.37 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: I’m terrified of this bet (which is why it’s good I don’t have the money to make it, I guess).  Houston doesn’t seem to care in the slightest that their starting two quarterbacks have gone down; they apparently intend to keep winning just the same.  I have the feeling that Houston’s defense is going to expose Andy Dalton for what he really is – a rookie – and completely shut the Bengals down on offense.  Houston’s offense should be able to score just enough to secure the win here.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
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NEW YORK JETS
Computer’s Pick: New York Jets (-9)
Bet Amount: $19.04 (Conflict)
COMMENTS: This is a pretty tough one to call.  The Chiefs looked surprisingly stout against Chicago, but that might have just been a byproduct of the injuries to Cutler and Forte.  However, I don’t know that New York is fielding any weapons that are any better than what a hobbled Bears squad put forth.  I feel like this is going to be a replay of last week’s Jets-Redskins game (same uniform colors and everything!) and that the Jets will stumble around making dumb mistakes until the end of the game where they pull out a win.  Unlike the Redskins game, though, I don’t believe they’re going to cover the spread.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS
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DETROIT LIONS
Computer’s Pick: Minnesota (+7)
Bet Amount: $9.00 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: Another tough call.  But if Minnesota couldn’t hold Denver’s passing game in check, they’re going to have some major problems against the Lions.  I think the Lions have seen too much of the Vikings to let this one slip away; they won’t be playing scared, and I think they’re finally competent enough to deliver an easy win here.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
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TENNESSEE TITANS
Computer’s Pick: New Orleans (-3.5)
Bet Amount: $0.33 (Son of Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: New Orleans is firing on all cylinders right now, and although Tennessee keeps gutting out wins in spite of everything, they really don’t stand a chance here.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
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MIAMI DOLPHINS
Computer’s Pick: Philadelphia (+3)
Bet Amount: $34.19 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: Another dismal performance from the Eagles is on the way.  Imagine the spread in this game six weeks ago – it probably would have been Eagles -6.5 or something ridiculous like that.  And they’d have blown it then, just like they’re going to blow it again this week.  They’re a mess and I’ll be amazed if Andy Reid survives the season.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
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WASHINGTON REDSKINS
Computer’s Pick: Washington (+8)
Bet Amount: $376.12 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: Do you think that Belicheck was happy that his defense let the Colts score 21 points in the fourth quarter last week?  I do not.  He’ll have been giving them hell all week about it, and the Redskins will be the unhappy target of their wrath.  The computer is a huge fan of the Redskins here, but only because it thinks the spread should be SO much higher.  Look for the Patriots to put this one away early (i.e. second quarter) and keep it away.
ATLANTA FALCONS
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CAROLINA PANTHERS
Computer’s Pick: Carolina (+3)
Bet Amount: $10.87 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: Atlanta really hasn’t shown up much this year.  I think Carolina pulls off an upset here.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
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JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
Computer’s Pick: Tampa Bay (0)
Bet Amount: $11.01 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: I guess this boils down to a battle of Jones-Drew vs. Blount.  I think Blount probably holds serve, and with the help of a hopefully healthy and competent Freeman the Buccaneers ought to be able to win this one.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
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ARIZONA CARDINALS
Computer’s Pick: Arizona (+4)
Bet Amount: $7.64 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: The Cardinals looked great last week against the Cowboys, but there’s no way they’ll be able to muster the same kind of fire two weeks in a row.  Even though they’ve got the division locked up, San Francisco still has plenty to play for, and I don’t think Harbaugh will let them phone this one in.
CHICAGO BEARS
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DENVER BRONCOS
Computer’s Pick: Denver (-3.5)
Bet Amount: $13.77 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: I hate the feeling of Tebow being gifted another win, but I have the sad feeling that this is going to happen yet again.  I’ve got nothing against Tebow, I’m perfectly happy to see him succeed, but watching him lob touchdown passes to receivers who were only open because the cornerback completely turned them loose was frustrating last week.  But somehow Chicago is going to lured in the same way and have the same problems, and Denver defense is playing too well right now for Chicago’s offense to make any mistakes, which they will.  I think Denver covers the spread here.
OAKLAND RAIDERS
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GREEN BAY PACKERS
Computer’s Pick: Oakland (+11)
Bet Amount: $3.88 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: You’d have to be insane to pick against Green Bay this year.
BUFFALO BILLS
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SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
Computer’s Pick: Buffalo (+7)
Bet Amount: $9.19 (Conflict)
COMMENTS: The Chargers certainly looked like they were ready to commence their late-season surge last week when they completely dismantled the Jaguars.  I don’t know if it will do them any good – they’re in an awfully big hole – but if there’s any team they know how to chase down, it’s the Broncos.  Expect another big game from them here.
NEW YORK GIANTS
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DALLAS COWBOYS
Computer’s Pick: New York Giants (+3)
Bet Amount: $73.49 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: I don’t have much of a read on this game.  Dallas is capable of doing just about anything – executing with amazing precision and competence, and completely shitting the bed.  I think the Giants might be deflated from their letdown against the Packers last week, and that will prove to be the difference here.
SAINT LOUIS RAMS
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SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
Computer’s Pick: St. Louis (+6)
Bet Amount: $3.30 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: This apparently is shaping up to be the least gambled-upon game in MNF history, and Gamblor seems like it’s getting in on the act, with a very lukewarm lean towards the Rams.  I think it’s probably right – it’s good to be getting the points in a game like this.

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Week GAMBLOR SON OF GAMBLOR Profit
W L P Weighted Wins Weighted Picks Weighted Win % W L P Weighted Wins Weighted Picks Weighted Win %
1 7 6 2 331 1305 25.4% 5 3 497 2739 18.1% -$375.32
2 7 7 579 1184 48.9% 3 5 1897 4154 45.7% -$66.41
3 11 5 548 686 79.9% 3 4 935 1402 66.7% $136.36
4 6 10 143 572 25.0% 1 7 34 2711 1.3% -$404.87
5 6 6 1 376 679 55.4% 2 3 1 110 287 38.2% -$0.56
6 2 6 1 50 127 39.4% 3 4 28 51 54.2% -$1.21
7 7 4 1 323 1054 30.6% 3 1 663 1036 66.0% -$75.12
8 3 9 565 855 66.1% 3 5 1573 1733 90.8% $266.60
9 7 7 181 866 21.0% 3 2 9 463 1.9% -$484.73
10 7 6 400 961 41.6% 7 3 965 4542 21.2% -$425.24
11 5 7 2 114 1010 11.3% 4 4 2 153 968 15.8% -$297.97
12 7 9 358 1538 23.3% 5 5 1540 3751 41.1% -$330.38
13 9 7 183 647 28.3% 6 3 1056 1829 57.8% -$45.93
Total 84 89 7 4151 11482 36.2% 42 46 3 9459 25664 36.9% -$2106.78