Gamblor Raids Again: Week 15 NFL Picks

Written by Football, Sports

Last week, Gamblor suffered its worst beat of the year, but still almost managed to break even for the week. This week, it makes a big play on the Steelers.

Gamblor suffered its worst bad beat of the season last week – it was pretty horrific.  A rookie quarterback managed to mount a last-minute comeback, spoiling what was seeming to be a routine cover on one of the computer’s biggest bets of the year.  Tebow?  Not hardly.  It was actually T.J. Yates, who led Houston on an eighty yard drive in just over two and a half minutes – with no time outs.  I can’t complain too much, because the computer was fortunate enough to hit its second-biggest bet of the week, which came at the hands of an uncharacteristic red zone interception thrown by Tom Brady.  Sadly, if the computer had hit its bet on the Bengals, it would have (theoretically) cut this season’s losses in half.  Instead, it lost a total of $61, with Gamblor going 5-8-1 with a weighted win percentage of 51.7% and Son of Gamblor hitting 7-3-1 and 45.0%.  It’s possible the computer could be unleashing its biggest bet of the season this week; that’s dependent on what the spread in the San Francisco game ends up being.

 

Away Home Spread Gamblor’s Pick Bet Amount Son of Gamblor’s Pick Bet Amount Overall Pick Overall Bet
JAC at ATL -11 ATL $86.77 ATL $96.82 ATL $183.59
DAL at TAM 7 TAM $9.51 TAM $9.51
WAS at NYG -7 WAS $15.38 WAS $13.26 WAS $28.64
GNB at KAN 14 KAN $9.58 KAN $9.58
NOS at MIN 7 MIN NOS $0.20 NOS
SEA at CHI -3.5 SEA $45.31 SEA $8.81 SEA $54.12
MIA at BUF 1 BUF $1.61 BUF
CAR at HOU -6.5 CAR $10.91 CAR $16.17 CAR $27.08
TEN at IND 7 IND $6.22 IND $1.08 IND $7.31
CIN at STL 6.5 STL $5.10 STL $5.10
DET at OAK 1.5 OAK $1.68 OAK $44.62 OAK $46.30
NEP at DEN 6 DEN $5.87 DEN $31.73 DEN $37.61
NYJ at PHI -3 NYJ $0.63 PHI $0.15 NYJ
CLE at ARI -6.5 ARI $12.38 ARI $63.66 ARI $76.03
BAL at SND 2.5 SND $8.88 SND $8.88
PIT at SNF -3 PIT $525.50 PIT $296.33 PIT $821.83

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JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
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ATLANTA FALCONS
Computer’s Pick: Atlanta (-11)
Bet Amount: $183.59 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: Easy blowout for Atlanta.  I know that Jacksonville themselves delivered quite a thumping to Tampa Bay last week (your truly was lucky enough to face MJD in fantasy) but Atlanta’s strengths match up very well against Jacksonville’s weaknesses.
DALLAS COWBOYS
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TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
Computer’s Pick: Tampa Bay (+7)
Bet Amount: $9.51 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: Tampa Bay looked an awful lot like they had given up last week, but Dallas has pretty much seen their own season go up in flames these last few weeks.  It’s basically a question of which team is motivated less here, and I think it’s going to be Dallas.  I can’t see them getting fired up enough to cover such a large spread on the road here.
WASHINGTON REDSKINS
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NEW YORK GIANTS
Computer’s Pick: Washington (+7)
Bet Amount: $28.64 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: I get the feeling that New York is ready to start cruising after last week’s inspiring victory over the Cowboys.  I think they’ll be able to roll in this one.
GREEN BAY PACKERS
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KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Computer’s Pick: Kansas City (+14)
Bet Amount: $9.58 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: If you’d bet $100 on Green Bay each game so far this season, you’d have $500.  If you continue that strategy in this week’s game against the Chiefs, you’ll have $600.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
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MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Computer’s Pick: New Orleans (-7)
Bet Amount: $0.20 (Son of Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: I know that the Vikings are getting Adrian Peterson back, but will that really make much of a difference?  It never seemed to matter much with Barry Sanders.  I’m guessing that Peterson will have a relatively slow return to action, and the Vikings will waste a lot of plays trying to get him going.  In the meantime, the Saints will have scored 35 points.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
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CHICAGO BEARS
Computer’s Pick: Seattle (+3.5)
Bet Amount: $54.12 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: The Chicago Bears have to be absolutely crushed after last week’s loss to Denver.  They fell into the same trap as every other team that’s suffered a defeat at the hands of Tim Tebow this season: they lost their composure in the fourth quarter.  At this point they’ve lost their wild-card spot to Detroit, and I don’t think they’ll be getting it back against a Seattle team that has looked quite sharp in the last few weeks.  I think Seattle can cover this one with a relatively low score but without too much drama.
MIAMI DOLPHINS
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BUFFALO BILLS
Computer’s Pick: Buffalo (+1)
Bet Amount: $1.61 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: I think Buffalo is packing it in for the season.  Miami is still irritated about being considered a top contender for Andrew Luck, and I think they’ll actually show up with some fire for this game.
CAROLINA PANTHERS
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HOUSTON TEXANS
Computer’s Pick: Carolina (+6.5)
Bet Amount: $27.08 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: Houston keeps on grinding out wins, but I’m not sure they’re good enough to cover this kind of spread.  I think they’ll win here, but it will be close enough for the points to factor in.
TENNESSEE TITANS
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INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Computer’s Pick: Indianapolis (+7)
Bet Amount: $7.31 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: The Colts effectively have the first pick in the 2012 draft all locked up, so they can go ahead and start trying, if they want to.  But they’re apparently bad enough that even when they do try, they still fall flat.  I don’t believe that Tennessee is going to take this game seriously enough, and there’s no way that they’re good enough to be seven point favorites on the road.  I’d take Indianapolis here.
CINCINNATI BENGALS
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SAINT LOUIS RAMS
Computer’s Pick: St. Louis (+6.5)
Bet Amount: $5.10 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: Sam Bradford came back last week, but he looked awful.  I doubt he’ll look any better this week; his recovery seems to be taking quite a while.  While Cincinnati is going to be deflated from last week’s loss to the Texans, the Rams are going to have their own problems bouncing back from a humiliating loss to the Seahawks, especially after a short week.  I don’t like either team here, and when I’m in doubt I usually take the points.  As I will here.
DETROIT LIONS
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OAKLAND RAIDERS
Computer’s Pick: Oakland (+1.5)
Bet Amount: $46.30 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: The Raiders have gone down 34-0 in two consecutive weeks.  I don’t think it’s likely that they’ll be bouncing back against the Lions.  Their defense has been simply atrocious – I can understand getting roughed up by the Packers, but to let Miami run wild like they did shows that their problems are pretty deep.  The Lions feel like a pretty safe bet to win this one straight up, and 1.5 points isn’t enough to back me off of them.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
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DENVER BRONCOS
Computer’s Pick: Denver (+6)
Bet Amount: $37.61 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: Apparently all the money in this game is headed towards the Patriots.  But I’m not on board with that.  New England’s defense is terrible; they’ve been reduced to throwing gimmick players like Julian Edelman onto the field and they just gave up 27 points to the Redskins.  I’m not on board with Tebow anymore; in all the games where I’ve seen him lead comebacks it had more to do with mistakes made by the opponent.  But the Patriots defense is bad enough that they’re going to make many of the same mistakes, and Denver will at the very least be able to keep this one close.  I think we’ll be treated to yet another week of John Fox and John Elway showing visible frustration at the fact that, once again, the fans were right and they were wrong.
NEW YORK JETS
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PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Computer’s Pick: New York Jets (+3)
Bet Amount: $0.48 (Conflict)
COMMENTS: I don’t have a strong feeling about this game.  I like the Jets and they seem to be buckling down for a playoff run, but the Eagles now feel like a team that can actually put together a big game if they’re in the right mood.  I think that the result of this game hinges on the play of the Jets running game – if they can control the ball, they can win the game.  But I feel like they won’t be able to do that as well as they need to, and Philadelphia will deliver enough big plays to secure a win.
CLEVELAND BROWNS
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ARIZONA CARDINALS
Computer’s Pick: Arizona (-6.5)
Bet Amount: $76.03 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: Arizona has looked hot lately.  I’d go with them in a heartbeat.  I like the computer’s bet here.
BALTIMORE RAVENS
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SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
Computer’s Pick: San Diego (+2.5)
Bet Amount: $8.88 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: Same with San Diego – they’re putting together their typical late-season surge.  I’m surprised, with how well they’ve played lately, to see them as a home dog against a Ravens team that’s making a long trip out west for the game.  I’m sure it’s a popular bet, but I still like the Chargers here.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS
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SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
Computer’s Pick: Pittsburgh (+3)
Bet Amount: $821.83 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: This all depends on whether Roethlisberger plays.  If he does, expect a short line, a huge bet on the Steelers by Gamblor, and a victory for the 49ers.  If he doesn’t, it will be a bigger line, the computer’s bet will be smaller, and it will probably win.

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Week GAMBLOR SON OF GAMBLOR Profit
W L P Weighted Wins Weighted Picks Weighted Win % W L P Weighted Wins Weighted Picks Weighted Win %
1 7 6 2 331 1305 25.4% 5 3 497 2739 18.1% -$375.32
2 7 7 579 1184 48.9% 3 5 1897 4154 45.7% -$66.41
3 11 5 548 686 79.9% 3 4 935 1402 66.7% $136.36
4 6 10 143 572 25.0% 1 7 34 2711 1.3% -$404.87
5 6 6 1 376 679 55.4% 2 3 1 110 287 38.2% -$0.56
6 2 6 1 50 127 39.4% 3 4 28 51 54.2% -$1.21
7 7 4 1 323 1054 30.6% 3 1 663 1036 66.0% -$75.12
8 3 9 565 855 66.1% 3 5 1573 1733 90.8% $266.60
9 7 7 181 866 21.0% 3 2 9 463 1.9% -$484.73
10 7 6 400 961 41.6% 7 3 965 4542 21.2% -$425.24
11 5 7 2 114 1010 11.3% 4 4 2 153 968 15.8% -$297.97
12 7 9 358 1538 23.3% 5 5 1540 3751 41.1% -$330.38
13 9 7 183 647 28.3% 6 3 1056 1829 57.8% -$45.93
14 5 8 1 810 1567 51.7% 7 3 1 1775 3948 45.0% -$61.44
Total 89 97 8 4961 13048 38.0% 55 52 4 11235 29612 37.9% -$2168.22