Gamblor Raids Again: Week 2 NFL Picks

Written by Football, Sports

Gamblor looks to bounce back from a disappointing first week of bets with big bets on the New Orleans Saints and Buffalo Bills.

Last week wasn’t such a stellar way to start out the season.  Gamblor was right more often than it was wrong, going 7-6-2, but unfortunately it threw a whole bunch of money away on an idiotic bet on Miami.  The same was true for Son of Gamblor, which went 5-3.  The overall loss for the week was a total of $375.32, which would sting a lot more if all that money was going to the sportsbook.  Instead, since I took the drastic action of using my own money against the computer in the Miami game, my sportsbook account actually swelled a bit, thanks to the computer’s savvy bet on the Buffalo Bills.

This week is pretty different.  The computer has even more money on the line, but its big bet isn’t nearly as objectionable as last week’s and I’m going to let it sink or swim on its own.  Let’s hope its judgment is a little better this week.

 

Away Home Spread Gamblor’s Pick Bet Amount Son of Gamblor’s Pick Bet Amount Overall Pick Overall Bet
CHI at NOS -6.5 NOS $90.18 NOS $217.41 NOS $307.60
KAN at DET -9 DET DET $8.72 DET $8.72
JAC at NYJ -9 JAC $4.67 JAC
OAK at BUF -3.5 BUF $1.47 BUF $118.58 BUF $120.05
ARI at WAS -4 ARI $5.28 WAS $3.15 ARI
BAL at TEN 6 TEN $24.88 TEN $6.97 TEN $31.85
SEA at PIT -14 SEA $1.72 SEA
GNB at CAR 10 CAR $1.66 CAR
TAM at MIN -3 MIN $46.20 MIN $145.27 MIN $191.47
CLE at IND 2.5 IND $8.17 IND $8.17
DAL at SNF 3 SNF SNF
HOU at MIA 3 MIA $7.37 MIA $0.07 MIA $7.44
SND at NEP -7 SND $72.98 SND $10.20 SND $83.18
CIN at DEN -4 CIN $18.86 CIN $18.86
PHI at ATL 2.5 ATL $1.72 ATL
STL at NYG -5.5 STL $7.19 STL $7.19

flashfiller

CHICAGO BEARS
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NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
Computer’s Pick:New Orleans (-6.5)
Bet Amount: $307.60 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: If it were a small bet, I really wouldn’t have any qualms about this one.  New Orleans looked fantastic on Thursday night against what should have been a very strong Green Bay defense, and even though they lost Marques Colston with a broken collarbone, they have enough weapons to fill the gap he’ll leave behind.  But this spread makes me nervous.  It’s like Vegas is just begging me to bet on the Saints.  Gamblor is happy to oblige, but I’m always wary of the house.  I really hope my fears aren’t justified here.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
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DETROIT LIONS
Computer’s Pick:Detroit (-9)
Bet Amount: $8.72 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: Remember last week when I said I’d have to see a little something before I got on the Lions wagon?  Well, I’m on it.  I love this bet.  I just wish it were bigger.  Lion spreads are just going to keep getting bigger and bigger this season until they lose, and they’re going to win big here. Matt Cassel isn’t back to 100% (and isn’t that great even when he is), Todd Haley has absolutely no idea how to utilize Jamal Charles, and their defense just gave up 41 points to the Buffalo Bills.  This one won’t be close.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
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NEW YORK JETS
Computer’s Pick:Jacksonville (+9)
Bet Amount: $4.67 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: Jacksonville was one of last week’s biggest surprises.  And the Jets looked surprisingly inept as they lucked into a victory against the Cowboys.  But you wouldn’t know it based on the spread.  And the books are right.  If last week had gone as expected, you might expect the Jets to mail it in against the Jaguars.  But Rex Ryan is going to insist on preparing for this game properly.  Even so, the Jets don’t put up enough points to cover such a large spread.  I’ll take Jacksonville here.
OAKLAND RAIDERS
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BUFFALO BILLS
Computer’s Pick:Buffalo (-3.5)
Bet Amount: $120.05 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: Gamblor apparently is quite excited about this opportunity, and I think it’s probably right.  The Raiders looked pathetic and undisciplined against the Broncos, and their victory was more a result of Denver’s ineptitude than any particular performance on their part.  Buffalo’s home fans are going to be VERY excited about the fact that they’re watching a team with a winning record, and traveling two weeks in a row is going to take its toll on the Raiders.  Again, I’m liking what the computer is doing here.
ARIZONA CARDINALS
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WASHINGTON REDSKINS
Computer’s Pick:Arizona (+4)
Bet Amount: $2.13 (Conflict)
COMMENTS: Washington looked great in their debut against the Giants, but I’m not convinced.  Rex Grossman gets overconfident very quickly, and I think the Cardinals defense will make him pay for forcing a few ill-advised throws into double coverage.  Arizona was crisp and efficient in getting the job done against the Panthers, so I’m wondering what the deal is with this spread.  I guess it factors in the travel they’ll be doing, but I’m happy to be getting the points here against a Redskins squad that is already overrated.
BALTIMORE RAVENS
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TENNESSEE TITANS
Computer’s Pick:Tennessee (+6)
Bet Amount: $31.85 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: The Ravens look like they’re on a mission.  Tennessee really doesn’t have anything going for them except Chris Johnson, and the Ravens defense will key in on him and ignore everyone else and there will be no consequences whatsoever.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
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PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Computer’s Pick:Seattle (+14)
Bet Amount: $1.72 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: This is a revenge game for the Steelers.  But are they actually going to deliver to the point where they cover a two touchdown spread?  I’m not so sure.  I’m glad this one’s below the minimum, though, because Seattle has even less going for it than Tennessee, and the Steelers will be on even more of a mission than the Ravens.
GREEN BAY PACKERS
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CAROLINA PANTHERS
Computer’s Pick:Carolina (+10)
Bet Amount: $1.66 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: Ten points isn’t enough to make Gamblor or anyone else bet on the Panthers.  I’m not sure twenty would be.  Even if the Packers phone this one in, they’ll still win this one by two touchdowns or more.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
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MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Computer’s Pick:Minnesota (-3)
Bet Amount: $191.47 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: Now this one is the wild card.  I’m not sure what to make of either one of these teams at this point.  The Vikings were surprisingly resilient against the Chargers, taking a lead into the fourth quarter before finally surrendering.  And Tampa Bay was thoroughly dominated by the Lions.  I can’t say I have any strong opinion about the computer’s bet here; I’m just hoping its confidence in the Vikings is rewarded.
CLEVELAND BROWNS
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INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Computer’s Pick:Indianapolis (+2.5)
Bet Amount: $8.17 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: I would have thought that Indianapolis’ veterans would have had enough pride to defend itself against Houston last week, but apparently not.  But there’s no way they let Cleveland walk into their home stadium and embarrass them.
DALLAS COWBOYS
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SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
Computer’s Pick:Dallas (-3)
Bet Amount: None (Conflict)
COMMENTS: Is San Francisco for real?  No, they’re not.  Against Seattle, they put up 33 points, but managed to score just one offensive touchdown.  I think this is a game where Dallas bounces back from their embarrassing loss to the Jets.
HOUSTON TEXANS
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MIAMI DOLPHINS
Computer’s Pick:Miami (+3)
Bet Amount: $7.44 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: Miami came within a whisker of securing a push against the Patriots on Monday night, but that was pretty much it.  Chad Henne took much better care of the ball than he usually does, but I don’t think he’ll be able to do that again against Houston’s pass rush.  They’ll knock the ball loose a few times, and Miami’s defense won’t be able stop Matt Schaub any more than they stopped Tom Brady.
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
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NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Computer’s Pick:San Diego (+7)
Bet Amount: $83.18 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: I’m a little surprised that NBC didn’t claim this for the Sunday night game – this should be a great one.  I know the Patriots looked completely unstoppable against Miami, but San Diego has high hopes on going to the Superbowl this year, and they’ll know that that road will most likely go through New England at some point.  Unless they win this game, in which case it has a much better chance of going through San Diego.  If New England’s defense had a hard time containing Chad Henne, Phillip Rivers is going to eat them for lunch.  I’m not sure that San Diego will win this one, but I don’t think it’s likely that New England will run away with this one.
CINCINNATI BENGALS
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DENVER BRONCOS
Computer’s Pick:Cincinnati (+4)
Bet Amount: $18.86 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: I don’t see this being much of a game, but I like that Cincinnati is getting four points.  Seems like an easy call to me.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
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ATLANTA FALCONS
Computer’s Pick:Atlanta (+2.5)
Bet Amount: $1.72 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: I really can’t believe that they’ve turned Atlanta, a 13-3 team last year with a 7-1 record at home, into home dogs.  It sounds pretty crazy to me.  The Eagles were good but not great last weekend.  I like the Falcons here.
SAINT LOUIS RAMS
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NEW YORK GIANTS
Computer’s Pick:St. Louis (+5.5)
Bet Amount: $7.19 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: I don’t think the Giants were as bad as they looked against the Redskins last week.  Count on them to bounce back against the Rams.

Week GAMBLOR SON OF GAMBLOR Profit
W L P Weighted Wins Weighted Picks Weighted Win % W L P Weighted Wins Weighted Picks Weighted Win %
1 7 6 2 331 1305 25.4% 5 3 497 2739 18.1% -$375.32
Total 7 6 2 331 1305 25.4% 5 3 497 2739 18.1% -$375.32
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