Gamblor Raids Again: Week 3 NFL Picks

Written by Football, Sports

Last week was heartbreaking for the computer, as its second, third, and fourth-biggest bets all flopped (Minnesota by blowing a 17 point lead in the second half, San Diego by coughing the ball up four times while they were chasing a push/cover, and Buffalo by letting the Raiders hang around in the fourth quarter after a nice comeback of their own).  Fortunately, it hit its biggest bet of the week, so the overall results weren’t so bad.  Gamblor was 7-7 for a weighted win percentage of 48.9%, and Son of Gamblor was 3-5 with a weighted percentage of 45.7%.  Overall the computer lost $66, which is disappointing, but isn’t really so bad for a week when it had almost $800 on the line.

Things are considerably quieter this week, with just one bet in excess of $25.  Two weeks ago I’d have been terrified of this one, but based on how they’ve done so far, it doesn’t look quite so scary.

Away Home Spread Gamblor’s Pick Bet Amount Son of Gamblor’s Pick Bet Amount Overall Pick Overall Bet
NYG at PHI -5 NYG $5.21 NYG $5.21
SNF at CIN -2.5 SNF $2.85 CIN $25.84 CIN $22.99
NEP at BUF 8.5 BUF $69.99 BUF $96.52 BUF $166.51
HOU at NOS -4 HOU $6.27 HOU $6.27
MIA at CLE -3 MIA $9.37 MIA $9.37
DEN at TEN -6.5 DEN $12.53 DEN $12.53
DET at MIN 3.5 MIN $3.54 MIN
JAC at CAR -3.5 JAC $5.52 JAC $5.52
KAN at SND -14.5 KAN $4.22 SND $8.06 SND
NYJ at OAK 3 OAK $4.41 OAK
BAL at STL 4 STL $9.31 STL $16.62 STL $25.93
ATL at TAM -1.5 TAM TAM $0.83 TAM
ARI at SEA 3.5 SEA $4.22 SEA
GNB at CHI 3.5 CHI $13.15 CHI $13.15
PIT at IND 10.5 IND $2.54 IND
WAS at DAL -5 WAS $7.26 WAS $0.01 WAS $7.27

flashfiller

NEW YORK GIANTS
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PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Computer’s Pick: New York Giants (+5)
Bet Amount: $5.21 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: This spread is predicated on the idea that Michael Vick will play, and I guarantee that he will.  Not based on any insider information, just based on the fact that I’m up against him in fantasy football.  Basically, the universe will adjust events to ensure that I get completely screwed every week (for example, last week I scored the second-highest overall score in our league this year.  And I lost.  To add a little salt to the wound, I was facing Miles Austin, who put up three touchdowns when he was facing me but WON’T PLAY this week now that he’s done with me).  So it’s safe to assume that Vick is good to go and will throw four touchdown passes to LeSean McCoy and run for two more.  All right, enough griping.  For real, I actually like the Giants here.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
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CINCINNATI BENGALS
Computer’s Pick: Cincinnati (-2.5)
Bet Amount: $22.99 (Conflict)
COMMENTS: I’m glad to have money on Cincinnati on this one.  San Francisco managed to lose to a completely hobbled Dallas squad, and they’re now headed out on the road to face a Cincinnati team that looks a lot better on the field than they did on paper at the beginning of the season.  There won’t be many points scored in this contest; the Bengals will keep the ball on the ground and the 49ers won’t be able to muster much offense, but I like the Bengals to maintain control of this game and cover the spread.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
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BUFFALO BILLS
Computer’s Pick: Buffalo (+8.5)
Bet Amount: $166.51 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: After the Raiders went up 21-0 on Buffalo in the first half last week, I had written my $120 bet off as lost and I relaxed for a while.  When the Bills put together 24 straight points in the second half, I thought the Raiders would collapse and I’d actually be able to collect.  Leave it to the Raiders to find a way to both lose the game AND take my money.  It’s the worst feeling.  Buffalo’s offense looked very sharp, led by Fred Jackson, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the same results out of them this Sunday.  Of course, they’ll be chasing a New England offense that looks as good as they did in 2007.  In fact, this situation is eerily similar to 2007 – after big wins against a divisional rival (the Jets in 2007 and Miami this year) and the San Diego Chargers, the Patriots are facing the Bills in Week 3.  There are three big differences, though.  1.)  Those Bills had scored a total of 17 points in their first two games – this year’s Bills have scored 79.  2.)  Those Bills were 0-2 – this year’s Bills are undefeated.  And finally, 3.) This game is in Buffalo.  Don’t expect a surprise upset here – but do expect an enthusiastic effort from the Bills that will enable them to cover the spread, either through the front door or through the back.
HOUSTON TEXANS
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NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
Computer’s Pick: Houston (+4)
Bet Amount: $6.27 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: I’m not a huge fan of either side in this game.  New Orleans seems like the safer bet, but it’s hard to bet against the Texans until someone beats them.  The only edge that I can see is that this game will mean more to New Orleans – they’re not going to want to slip below .500, while Houston has the luxury of coasting through an easy division this year and might phone this one in.
MIAMI DOLPHINS
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CLEVELAND BROWNS
Computer’s Pick: Miami (+3)
Bet Amount: $9.37 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: I kind of feel like Chad Henne is due for a meltdown, but if this game goes as expected he won’t have much of a change, as both teams will probably keep the ball on the ground for a majority of plays.  I’m actually predicting a push here, but I’m happy to have the points because you never know what’s going to happen at the end of the game.
DENVER BRONCOS
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TENNESSEE TITANS
Computer’s Pick: Denver (+6.5)
Bet Amount: $12.53 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: Tennessee completely turned things around last week, and I think they’ll build on their success with the passing game and use Chris Johnson much more effectively this week.  Denver has looked awful thus far, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they try to shake things up by getting Tebow more involved in the game.  An ill-advised strategy, to be sure, but doing this in an away game is the only way they can make this kind of change without being accused of letting their fans coach the team.  It won’t work, and I wouldn’t be too surprised to see Tennessee capitalize on a few turnovers and actually romp in this game.
DETROIT LIONS
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MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Computer’s Pick: Minnesota (+3.5)
Bet Amount: $3.54 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: All right, I’m on the Detroit wagon now.  Like everyone else, I’m expecting them to completely blow out the Vikings.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
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CAROLINA PANTHERS
Computer’s Pick: Jacksonville (+3.5)
Bet Amount: $5.52 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: I’m still not sold on Cam Newton.  He looked pretty excellent in his first game, but not quite so great in his second.  And with two games worth of footage to work with, Jacksonville should be able to figure him out.  They’re probably too inept to actually do it, but betting on Carolina as a favorite seems pretty ludicrous to me – I’m glad I’m getting the points in this one.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
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SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
Computer’s Pick: San Diego (-14.5)
Bet Amount: $3.84 (Conflict)
COMMENTS: The Chiefs have looked like an abomination in their first two games.  I can’t say I expect things to change here, but this spread is pretty intimidating.  I guess with Jamal Charles gone and no other worthwhile players to speak of, it seems like it will be impossible for the Chiefs to put up any points.  And it probably is.  Still – two touchdowns is a lot for a divisional rivalry.  If I had to bet I’d want my money to be on San Diego, but I’m actually glad I don’t have to – too many bad things could happen.
NEW YORK JETS
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OAKLAND RAIDERS
Computer’s Pick: Oakland (+3)
Bet Amount: $4.41 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: As much as I hate to say it, I have a hard time imagining how Oakland can make a game out of this one.  They were able to put up plenty of points against Buffalo, but blew it in the end thanks to their defense.  Against a much more stout Jets defense, they won’t have as much success running the ball, and we’ll see them revert to a more familiar pattern of punt – opponent long drive and score – punt – opponent long drive and score.
BALTIMORE RAVENS
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SAINT LOUIS RAMS
Computer’s Pick: St. Louis (+4)
Bet Amount: $25.93 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: The Rams looked pretty good moving the ball against the Giants last week, but couldn’t finish off the drives that they started.  Expect more of the same against Baltimore’s defense, which was able to shut down Tennessee on the ground but couldn’t stop them in the air.  Baltimore won’t have the same problems getting into the end zone, and it’s fair to expect them to win this game.  It’s a tough one to call, because I’m expecting a fairly low score and plenty of field goals for each team.  Again, this one feels like it’s got great potential to be a push (with a score of 20-16 or so) so in this situation I’m happy to have the points.
ATLANTA FALCONS
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TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
Computer’s Pick: Tampa Bay (-1.5)
Bet Amount: $0.83 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: It took a miracle for the Buccaneers to pull of a win in Minnesota.  I’m not expecting them to manage the same kind of effort here, especially after Atlanta jumps out to an early lead.  The Falcons offense will just be too much for Tampa Bay to contain here, and Atlanta is too good to allow a late comeback the way the Vikings did.
ARIZONA CARDINALS
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SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
Computer’s Pick: Seattle (+3.5)
Bet Amount: $4.22 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: This is the game where Larry Fitzgerald and Kevin Kolb finally light it up.  But playing at home makes a big difference for the Seahawks, so I think they’re actually going to keep this one close.  I’m not sure how, since there’s really not much of anything that they do well, but it doesn’t really make so much sense for Seattle – a team that went to the divisional playoffs last year – to be underdogs at home by more than a field goal, especially this early in the season.
GREEN BAY PACKERS
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CHICAGO BEARS
Computer’s Pick: Chicago (+3.5)
Bet Amount: $13.15 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: The Packers needed to get a lousy game out of their system, and they did so against Carolina without actually losing.  I think they’ll be focused here, and with an offense that is virtually impossible to stop I can’t see how Chicago can compete with them.  I think that Green Bay will deliver enough pressure to rattle Cutler into a few turnovers, and when that happens it has the potential to be very, very bad news for the Bears.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS
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INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Computer’s Pick: Indianapolis (+10.5)
Bet Amount: $2.54 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: Pittsburgh simply cannot be trusted in games where they are large favorites and everyone bets on them anyways.  They’ll put this game away early, and then let Indianapolis cover through the back door, and everyone will be frustrated – yet again – that the Steelers failed to deliver for them.  It’s like clockwork.  Don’t bet on the Steelers here.
WASHINGTON REDSKINS
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DALLAS COWBOYS
Computer’s Pick: Washington (+5)
Bet Amount: $7.27 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: I’m basing this spread on the prospect of Tony Romo being okay to play.  If he doesn’t, you can expect a much smaller line and a bigger bet on Washington for Gamblor.  I’m happy betting on the Redskins either way.  The Cowboys’ defense is in shambles and they’re going to need to take a breather after a tough win against the 49ers.

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Week GAMBLOR SON OF GAMBLOR Profit
W L P Weighted Wins Weighted Picks Weighted Win % W L P Weighted Wins Weighted Picks Weighted Win %
1 7 6 2 331 1305 25.4% 5 3 497 2739 18.1% -$375.32
1 7 7 579 1184 48.9% 3 5 1897 4154 45.7% -$66.41
Total 14 13 2 910 2489 36.6% 8 8 2394 6893 34.7% -$441.73