Gamblor Raids Again: Week 4 NFL Picks

Written by Football, Sports

Gamblor’s on a hot streak. Will it continue?

The computer performed very well last week, with a weighted win percentage of 77.9% for Gamblor and 66.7% for Son of Gamblor.  Unfortunately, it happened on the computer’s quietest week of the year thus far, so its profits ($136) didn’t quite manage to dig it out of the hole it’s in so far this season.  This week isn’t so quiet, however, with a big bet on the Eagles coming up.  Regardless of whether or not Michael Vick plays (I’m currently assuming that he will), the computer is a big fan of the Eagles this week.

 

Away Home Spread Gamblor’s Pick Bet Amount Son of Gamblor’s Pick Bet Amount Overall Pick Overall Bet
DET at DAL -1 DET $5.77 DET $5.77
NOS at JAC 7 JAC $7.52 JAC $7.52
SNF at PHI -10 PHI $49.88 PHI $314.82 PHI $364.71
WAS at STL 0 WAS $8.02 WAS $8.02
TEN at CLE -1 TEN $18.80 TEN $18.80
BUF at CIN 3.5 CIN $7.65 CIN $7.65
MIN at KAN 1.5 KAN $3.57 MIN $0.51 KAN
CAR at CHI -6.5 CAR $2.01 CAR
PIT at HOU -4 PIT $3.76 PIT
ATL at SEA 4.5 SEA $0.44 SEA $4.24 SEA
NYG at ARI 1 ARI $3.89 ARI
MIA at SND -7 MIA $3.76 MIA
DEN at GNB -13 DEN $12.35 DEN $12.35
NEP at OAK 4 OAK $2.69 OAK $30.71 OAK $33.40
NYJ at BAL -3.5 NYJ $39.11 NYJ $51.20 NYJ $90.30
IND at TAM -10 IND $3.51 TAM $1.78 IND

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DETROIT LIONS
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DALLAS COWBOYS
Computer’s Pick: Detroit (+1)
Bet Amount: $5.77 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: I’m not surprised to see Detroit walk into Dallas as favorites.  To be honest I’d actually expect them to be bigger favorites.  But I’d actually be surprised to see them walk out as winners.  Their comeback against divisional rival Minnesota will have taken a lot out of them, and this game probably just doesn’t mean all that much to them.  Dallas is in shambles right now and it’s hard to imagine Tony Romo surviving for more than a quarter against the Lions defensive line, but something about this line just feels fishy to me.  I don’t trust it, so I’ll go with the Cowboys here.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
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JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
Computer’s Pick: Jacksonville (+7)
Bet Amount: $7.52 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: Jacksonville has failed to put up more than 16 points thus far this season.  New Orleans hasn’t played a game where they put up fewer than 30.  I think it’s fair to expect that this pattern will continue.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
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PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Computer’s Pick: Philadelphia (-10)
Bet Amount: $364.71 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: This spread (and bet) are predicated on the idea that Michael Vick takes the field for the Eagles.  I’d actually prefer that he didn’t.  But in any event the Eagles will be favored and the computer will be betting big on them.  I’ll update later in the week when there’s more news about Vick.
WASHINGTON REDSKINS
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SAINT LOUIS RAMS
Computer’s Pick: Washington (0)
Bet Amount: $8.02 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: I’m really surprised by how awful the Rams have turned out to be so far this season.  They’ve been soundly beaten in each of the three games they’ve played, and have looked worse each week.  I think they’re due to bounce back.  Washington, on the other hand, lost a tough game to a divisional rival and will be on the road for the second week in a row.  I don’t think they’ll be able to outperform yet again – and besides, Rex Grossman is regressing.  All St. Louis needs to do is win here, and I think they’ll be able to do that just fine.
TENNESSEE TITANS
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CLEVELAND BROWNS
Computer’s Pick: Tennessee (+1)
Bet Amount: $18.80 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: Is Chris Johnson finally going to break out of his slump?  With Kenny Britt injured and gone, he certainly better, or Tennessee is going to have a lot of problems.  It’s surprising to see them at 2-1, but I don’t think they’ll stay above .500 for long.  Cleveland will maintain control of the ball and expose the Titans’ defensive weaknesses, and will lock down on Chris Johnson on defense.  I don’t see Tennessee having much of a chance in this game.
BUFFALO BILLS
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CINCINNATI BENGALS
Computer’s Pick: Cincinnati (+3.5)
Bet Amount: $7.65 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: It’s really amazing to see Buffalo playing so well.  More than anything else, they seem to be playing with confidence, with is a quality that’s been absent for their team for as long as I can remember.  I am worried that they won’t take the Bengals seriously enough and will be looking ahead to next week’s game against the Eagles.  I think Buffalo will manage to get to 4-0, but I think it’s going to be a little bit of a close shave here, enough for the points to make a difference.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS
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KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Computer’s Pick: Kansas City (+1.5)
Bet Amount: $3.07 (Conflict)
COMMENTS: Two of the top contestants in the “Suck for Luck” sweepstakes are going to take each other head-on here.  I think this game will be dominated by Adrian Peterson, who will enable Minnesota to maintain control of the ball and dominate this contest.  McNabb hasn’t shown many signs of life yet, but hopefully he’ll turn things around in this game.  Kansas City will be reeling from their tough loss to San Diego, and I’m not sure they’ll put in the necessary effort here to keep themselves from going 0-4.
CAROLINA PANTHERS
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CHICAGO BEARS
Computer’s Pick: Carolina (+6.5)
Bet Amount: $2.01 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: This is a tough one for me to call.  While I think the Bears are certainly the better team, they don’t really have the firepower needed to put this game away properly once they get ahead.  Carolina is going to be pretty enthused after their win over Jacksonville last week, and it might give them the nudge they need to make this game competitive.  I think I’ll take the points here.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS
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HOUSTON TEXANS
Computer’s Pick: Pittsburgh (+4)
Bet Amount: $3.76 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: Pittsburgh has been all over the place so far this season.  They showed up half-dead for their season opener against Baltimore (standard issue for a Superbowl loser), then turned around and laid an ass-whooping on Seattle, and then only just barely managed to beat an imploding Colts team.  So with that much variability, it’s better to rely on something you can trust: Houston’s ability to choke.  I feel like Houston just won’t be up to the task of beating the Steelers, and will disappoint their home crowd by finding a way to lose at the end of the game.
ATLANTA FALCONS
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SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
Computer’s Pick: Seattle (+4.5)
Bet Amount: $4.68 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: Seattle is a lot tougher at home, but that only elevates them from “horrible” to “bad.”  Atlanta should be able to light up the scoreboard against them and cover the spread easily.
NEW YORK GIANTS
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ARIZONA CARDINALS
Computer’s Pick: Arizona (+1)
Bet Amount: $3.89 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: The Giants are starting to get it together, and the oddsmakers don’t seem to have caught up to them yet.  It’s a long trip out to Arizona, but I think the Giants will win this game without too much fanfare.
MIAMI DOLPHINS
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SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
Computer’s Pick: Miami (+7)
Bet Amount: $3.76 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: San Diego’s offense has sputtered in a big way with Antonio Gates gone.  They’re still winning games, but they’re not putting up points as easily as they used to when he was on the field.  I think they should win this game, especially at home against a team with as few weapons as the Dolphins have, but seven points seems a bit too generous – I’d go with the Dolphins to cover here.
DENVER BRONCOS
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GREEN BAY PACKERS
Computer’s Pick: Denver (+13)
Bet Amount: $12.35 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: This spread is too small.  I wouldn’t bet on the Broncos even if they were getting 20 points.  It wouldn’t surprise me if we saw the biggest blowout of the season in this game.  I’m glad Gamblor’s bet on this one is comparatively small.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
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OAKLAND RAIDERS
Computer’s Pick: Oakland (+4)
Bet Amount: $33.40 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: I can’t imagine the Raiders will have the slightest chance of stopping the Patriots here.  They’ll play with plenty of ferocity (they will never forget the Tuck Rule game), but it will manifest itself in the form of stupid penalties that will burn them badly.  Belichick’s squad is too talented to squander the opportunities to score they’ll be afforded, and while the Raiders should have some luck moving the ball on the ground against the Patriots, they won’t be able to score enough to keep up.  And once they get behind and take to the air, their problems will only get worse.
NEW YORK JETS
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BALTIMORE RAVENS
Computer’s Pick: New York Jets (+3.5)
Bet Amount: $90.30 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: Hmm.  Another tough one to call.  The Jets have got to be disappointed in themselves and will likely bounce back with a strong effort from their disappointing loss to the Raiders.  But the Ravens look very strong so far this season as well, and aren’t going to take the Jets lightly.  Given how tough these defenses will play, it’s hard to imagine either team putting up many points.  In those situations, especially getting the extra half-point, I’d go with the underdog.  I’m not nearly as enthusiastic as Gamblor, though.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
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TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
Computer’s Pick: Indianapolis (+10)
Bet Amount: $1.73 (Conflict)
COMMENTS: I have the feeling that Indianapolis won’t even bother to show up here.  Their defense is going to know that they’ll be getting absolutely no help from the offense, and they won’t bother putting forth a strong effort like they did against the Steelers.  I’m not sure that Tampa Bay’s offense can operate efficiently enough to deliver a true blowout, but they should be able to put up plenty of points and cover the spread.

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Week GAMBLOR SON OF GAMBLOR Profit
W L P Weighted Wins Weighted Picks Weighted Win % W L P Weighted Wins Weighted Picks Weighted Win %
1 7 6 2 331 1305 25.4% 5 3 497 2739 18.1% -$375.32
1 7 7 579 1184 48.9% 3 5 1897 4154 45.7% -$66.41
1 11 5 548 686 79.9% 3 4 935 1402 66.7% $136.36
Total 25 18 2 1458 3175 45.9% 11 12 3329 8295 40.1% -$305.37