Gamblor Raids Again: Week 5 NFL Picks

Written by Football, Sports

Gamblor got jobbed by the Philadelphia Eagles and their collapse last weekend, so it’s looking up from the bottom of a pretty big hole this week.

Last week was a disastrous one for the computer.  I felt a particular sense of betrayal from the Eagles, who coasted to a 23-3 lead, and then managed to piss away the game courtesy of a goal-line fumble, two missed field goals of less than 40 yards, and one of the most pathetic second-half efforts I’ve seen all year.  It was truly disgusting.  I was hoping they’d redeem themselves from screwing me last year on their comeback against the Giants; instead they just went and doubled down.  The computer also lost big on the Jets and Raiders, but neither of these games were ever close.  Ultimately, Gamblor finished with a weighted win percentage of 25.0% and Son of Gamblor ended its week with a dismal weighted win percentage of just 1.2%.  There’s a small amount of consolation to be found in the fact that Walter over at walterfootball.com is having a similarly rough start to his season, and he’s the best handicapper I’m familiar with.  I’m guessing the sportsbooks aren’t having all that good of a season themselves.  All I can do is plod ahead and remind myself that at this point in the season the computer was up $1,200, so I shouldn’t be too surprised by these kinds of swings.

 

Away Home Spread Gamblor’s Pick Bet Amount Son of Gamblor’s Pick Bet Amount Overall Pick Overall Bet
KAN at IND -2.5 KAN $15.51 KAN $15.51
ARI at MIN -3 ARI $6.33 ARI $6.33
PHI at BUF 3 BUF $6.84 BUF $6.84
OAK at HOU -6 OAK $5.95 OAK $5.95
NOS at CAR 6.5 CAR $8.04 CAR $8.04
CIN at JAC -2.5 CIN $6.58 JAC $3.72 CIN
TEN at PIT -3.5 TEN $31.08 TEN $14.96 TEN $46.04
SEA at NYG -9.5 SEA $53.42 SEA $13.85 SEA $67.27
TAM at SNF -3 TAM $7.98 TAM $0.01 TAM $7.98
NYJ at NEP -9 NYJ $137.22 NYJ $134.58 NYJ $271.81
SND at DEN 4 DEN $17.72 DEN $17.72
GNB at ATL 6 ATL $0.13 ATL
CHI at DET -5.5 CHI $5.95 CHI $5.95

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KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
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INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Computer’s Pick: Kansas City (+2.5)
Bet Amount: $15.51 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: This battle between two of the frontrunners in the Suck for Luck sweepstakes should actually be an interesting one, because it’s one of the few games this season that these teams are both capable of winning.  I think they’ll both be putting forth quite a bit of effort, but I don’t think homefield advantage helps the Chiefs much here – their fans will be fed up and will start turning on them shortly after their first mistake.  The Colts are suffering from an incredible handicap with Curtis Painter running the offense, but have some talented players otherwise and I’m actually expecting them to win this game.
ARIZONA CARDINALS
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MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Computer’s Pick: Arizona (+3)
Bet Amount: $6.33 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: Another epic battle between two teams with a combined record of 1-7, both of whom were expected to be much better this season.  Both teams were hoping to upgrade their quarterback in the offseason, and both seem to have failed.  I like Minnesota here, but only thanks to the prospect of Adrian Peterson having a big game.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
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BUFFALO BILLS
Computer’s Pick: Buffalo (+3)
Bet Amount: $6.84 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: It’s really amazing to see Philadelphia waltz into Buffalo as three-point favorites.  Gamblor thinks this spread is pretty close to where it should be based on the way both teams finished last season, but it surprises me to see a 1-3 team that just lost to the 49ers at home favored against a team that two weeks ago managed to beat the Patriots.  Essentially, I feel like this one must be a trap, with Vegas trying to push money in the direction of Buffalo.  And they only do that for one reason – because they’re expecting a big win out of Philadelphia.
OAKLAND RAIDERS
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HOUSTON TEXANS
Computer’s Pick: Oakland (+6)
Bet Amount: $5.95 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: Oakland didn’t embarrass themselves against the Patriots as much as I thought they would, so there may be some hope for them yet this season.  With Andre Johnson sitting on the sidelines, you’ll see Arian Foster getting more action in this contest, and it wouldn’t surprise me if he has a huge game.  But the Raiders actually might manage to hang with the Texans, and based on their notorious ability to choke away wins, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Houston let the Raiders put together a late score for a victory or at least a backdoor cover.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
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CAROLINA PANTHERS
Computer’s Pick: Carolina (+6.5)
Bet Amount: $8.04 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: Carolina has looked much better than expected this season thanks to Cam Newton, but they’re in way over their heads here.  Look for Drew Brees and the Saints to put this one away early.
CINCINNATI BENGALS
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JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
Computer’s Pick: Cincinnati (+2.5)
Bet Amount: $2.86 (Conflict)
COMMENTS: I picked up Cincinnati’s defense in fantasy football for one reason: Blaine Gabbert.  He was just 16 of 42 last week, and Cincinnati’s defense is pretty solid against the pass.  While Maurice Jones-Drew will shoulder most of the load, he won’t be able to do it all himself, especially with Cincinnati’s defense keying in on him during every single play.  As long as Cincinnati plays intelligently and controls the ball well, they should be able to secure a victory here.
TENNESSEE TITANS
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PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Computer’s Pick: Tennessee (+3.5)
Bet Amount: $46.04 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: Tennessee has been this season’s biggest surprise thus far, putting together a 3-1 record thanks to a surprisingly effective passing game led by Matt Hasselbeck.  I don’t think they’ll need to throw the ball often in this game; Chris Johnson should pick up where he left off last weekend and have a good game.  Ben Roethlesberger won’t have much fun playing against Tennessee’s defensive line; the Steelers haven’t been able to protect him very well and that is unlikely to change this week.  I’ve already picked a lot of road teams this week, but I’m pretty happy with Gamblor’s pick here – I think Tennessee has a good chance to win this game and should at least cover the spread.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
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NEW YORK GIANTS
Computer’s Pick: Seattle (+9.5)
Bet Amount: $67.27 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: The Giants have looked very solid this season, finding their footing after a surprising loss to the Redskins in the first week of the season.  Seattle has been predictably awful, and I don’t think they’ll be enjoying their trip to the east coast this week.  Last season the Giants humiliated Seattle to the tune of 41-7, and while I don’t predict such a huge margin this time around, there’s no reason that they shouldn’t be able to beat them soundly once again.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
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SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
Computer’s Pick: Tampa Bay (+3)
Bet Amount: $7.98 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: San Francisco’s victory over Philadelphia was surprising, but it doesn’t change the fact that they really don’t have much to offer the NFL.  Tampa, on the other hand, looked pretty calm and collected against Indianapolis.  Of course, if Peyton had been leading the charge it might have been a different story, but they seem to have their heads on straight even though Josh Freeman is making more mistakes than he ought to be.  It surprises me to figure that this might be an interesting game, but that’s how I see it – one of these teams will emerge with a 4-1 record!  With that in mind, I’ll take Tampa and the points here – they might not win, but I have a feeling this game will be close.
NEW YORK JETS
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NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Computer’s Pick: New York Jets (+9)
Bet Amount: $271.81 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: Ugh.  I hate having to bet against the Patriots, particularly when there’s this much money on the line.  There’s no doubt that this is a very important game for both teams, but the Jets really aren’t the same team they were last year – and they got beat 45-3 the last time they went to Foxborough stadium during the regular season.  I have the feeling that Gamblor is going to keep digging into the crater it’s unearthed for itself.
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
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DENVER BRONCOS
Computer’s Pick: Denver (+4)
Bet Amount: $17.72 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: The San Diego Chargers are overrated at this point, but that won’t matter here.  We’ll finally see some of San Diego’s offensive firepower, and the result won’t be pretty for the Broncos.
GREEN BAY PACKERS
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ATLANTA FALCONS
Computer’s Pick: Atlanta (+6)
Bet Amount: $0.13 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: It’s impossible to pick against the Packers, even though the Falcons are 21-4 at home since 2008.  Of course, I can’t ever imagine anybody stopping the Packers, and they were stopped six times during the regular season last year, so anything is possible.  But I’d still pick them to win and cover here, and I’m very glad that I won’t be wagering any money on this game.
CHICAGO BEARS
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DETROIT LIONS
Computer’s Pick: Chicago (+5.5)
Bet Amount: $5.95 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: Jay Cutler vs. the…wait, what stupid name did they come up with for Detroit’s defensive line?  Either way, he’s doomed.  I don’t think Detroit will blow out the Bears, but they’ll win by a comfortable margin – probably about 10 points.  And they won’t need a spectacular second-half comeback this week to do it.

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Week GAMBLOR SON OF GAMBLOR Profit
W L P Weighted Wins Weighted Picks Weighted Win % W L P Weighted Wins Weighted Picks Weighted Win %
1 7 6 2 331 1305 25.4% 5 3 497 2739 18.1% -$375.32
1 7 7 579 1184 48.9% 3 5 1897 4154 45.7% -$66.41
1 11 5 548 686 79.9% 3 4 935 1402 66.7% $136.36
1 6 10 143 572 25.0% 1 7 34 2711 1.3% -$404.87
Total 31 28 2 1601 3747 42.7% 12 19 3363 1106 30.6% -$710.24