Gamblor Raids Again: Week 6 NFL Picks

Written by Football, Sports

This might be Gamblor’s quietest week ever, with just three games where the computer will be wagering actual money.

Last week was actually an incredibly exciting one for the computer. The computer won bets when Carolina covered through the back door with a meaningless touchdown at the end of regulation, Seattle pulled off a big victory against the Giants, and the Jets scored a late touchdown against the Patriots that almost turned a lost bet into a win.  Unfortunately the Patriots scored a late field goal that turned the Jets bet back into a push, and the computer also lost some money on a bullshit field goal from the Chargers after an imaginary penalty late in the Denver game (though I am happy that faithful commenter Steve C. profited from this) and after the Bears ran out of  time while driving for a backdoor cover. Ultimately, all that excitement ended up being a lot of sound and fury, signifying nothing, as the computer’s ended up losing just 56 cents on total bets of almost $500. Gamblor was solid, with a weighted win percentage of 55.4%, but was held back by his son, who hit just 38.2%.
This week, Gamblor is looking at what might just be its quietest week ever, with just three games where the computer will be wagering actual money.

Away Home Spread Gamblor’s Pick Bet Amount Son of Gamblor’s Pick Bet Amount Overall Pick Overall Bet
STL at GNB -15 STL $11.44 STL $11.44
JAC at PIT -12.5 JAC $2.05 JAC $0.03 JAC
PHI at WAS 1.5 WAS $2.11 WAS
SNF at DET -4.5 SNF $10.74 SNF $10.74
CAR at ATL -3.5 ATL CAR $0.66 CAR
IND at CIN -7 IND $0.58 CIN $1.62 CIN
BUF at NYG -3 BUF $12.79 BUF $12.79
HOU at BAL -7.5 HOU $1.98 HOU
CLE at OAK -7 CLE $1.28 CLE
DAL at NEP -7 NEP DAL $1.89 DAL
NOS at TAM 4.5 TAM NOS $0.12 NOS
MIN at CHI -3 MIN $2.24 MIN
MIA at NYJ -7 NYJ MIA $2.63 MIA

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SAINT LOUIS RAMS
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GREEN BAY PACKERS
Computer’s Pick: St. Louis (+15)
Bet Amount: $11.44 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: Fifteen points would normally seem like a large spread, but here it seems too small.  The computer thinks it’s pretty much where it should be, which means a decent size hedge bet on the underdog.  I don’t see any reason why the Packers won’t blow out the Rams, but they’ve had an extra week to rest and prepare for this game, so they might put up more of a fight than you might expect.  Probably not, though.  I’m going to side with the crowd and take the Packers here.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
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PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Computer’s Pick: Jacksonville (+12.5)
Bet Amount: $2.07 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: I’ve trained my friend Gerry to never trust the Steelers, and that goes double here.  It seems like a pretty safe bet; that the Steelers should be able to easily beat a hapless Jacksonville squad by two touchdowns.  But I don’t think that’s what’s going to happen here.  The Steelers run defense has been soft – they’re the first team this season to let Chris Johnson score a touchdown and they’re going to start looking towards their bye week so they can get some rest.  And Maurice Jones-Drew has been playing quite well considering the company he’s keeping.  I feel like Jacksonville will keep the ball on the ground, chew up the clock, and drag this game out into a time-of-possession battle.  Pittsburgh will win, but I don’t think they’ll put up all that many points (at least, I hope they don’t, cause I’m up against Hines Ward and Mike Wallace in fantasy).  I like Jacksonville here.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
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WASHINGTON REDSKINS
Computer’s Pick: Washington (+1.5)
Bet Amount: $2.11 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: I just don’t believe that the Eagles are going to drop another one.  There’s no way.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
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DETROIT LIONS
Computer’s Pick: San Francisco (+4.5)
Bet Amount: $10.74 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: San Francisco has been punching above their weight so far this season.  I don’t know why it’s happening, but they’ve transformed themselves into a winning football team without really adding much talent.  Against Detroit, they won’t be able to maintain this illusion.  Nobody has been able to stop the Lions so far this season.  But keep in mind that after three huge comebacks, Detroit finally was able to coast last week against the Bears.  I think they’ll allow themselves a breather against the 49ers.  They’ll be looking ahead to next week’s game against the Falcons.  I’m not sure who wins this game, but I think if Detroit wins the spread will factor in and San Francisco will manage to cover.
CAROLINA PANTHERS
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ATLANTA FALCONS
Computer’s Pick: Carolina (+3.5)
Bet Amount: $0.66 (Son of Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: Prior to the season starting, I was expecting Cam Newton to be a huge bust.  Basically, I thought he’d be the next (first iteration of) Michael Vick, except without the incredible mobility.  But the hype has turned out to be true, and it seems as though Auburn got their money’s worth out of him.  Carolina seems to be getting some great value out of him as well.  While he hasn’t been winning games, he’s served to deliver quite a bit of spark to a franchise that may finish their season within striking distance of Andrew Luck, but probably won’t be interested.  Atlanta’s plans for the season haven’t panned out – although Julio Jones has been solid, he hasn’t scored yet, and he’ll be sitting this one out.  Roddy White will carry the load just fine, but without a pair of weapons the Falcons will be slowed down just enough that Carolina will be able to keep this one close.  Look for the Panthers to either pull off a surprise upset or surrender a late lead but cover the spread.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
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CINCINNATI BENGALS
Computer’s Pick: Cincinnati (-7)
Bet Amount: $1.04 (Conflict)
COMMENTS: The Bengals have looked good so far this season, but seven points is too many for them to be giving away, especially against a Colts defense that still has some pride left.  Andy Dalton may not be making too many mistakes, but Curtis Painter seems to have conquered a few demons of his own.  Cincinnati simply isn’t dominant enough to be giving this many points away, regardless of who they’re playing against.
BUFFALO BILLS
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NEW YORK GIANTS
Computer’s Pick: Buffalo (+3)
Bet Amount: $12.79 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: Buffalo isn’t unbeatable, as the Bengals proved a couple of weeks ago, and I think the Giants are capable of playing the exact kind of game they’ll need to in order to secure a victory here.  Most of the game will be played on the ground, but Manning has enough weapons in the air to give the Giants the edge here.  I’m expecting a bet on the Giants will deliver either a win or a push, though for Gamblor’s sake I hope I’m wrong.
HOUSTON TEXANS
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BALTIMORE RAVENS
Computer’s Pick: Houston (+7.5)
Bet Amount: $1.98 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: Baltimore has looked good this season, but not that good.  Houston is too good of a team to get manhandled the way the Jets or Steelers or Rams…okay, well, they’ll probably get manhandled a little bit.  But as with the Bengals game, seven points is just too many.  I think the Texans ought to be able to keep the total score low enough that covering is a virtual certainty.
CLEVELAND BROWNS
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OAKLAND RAIDERS
Computer’s Pick: Cleveland (+7)
Bet Amount: $1.28 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: It always makes me sad, but “easy” victories like this one always seem to elude the Raiders.  After a remarkably lucky victory in Houston last week (they committed some awful penalties on the final drive and only had 10 men on the field during the final play), they’ll simply phone this one in and surprise everyone by losing.  Even if they don’t lose, seven points is too many for such a penalty-prone team to be giving up.
DALLAS COWBOYS
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NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Computer’s Pick: Dallas (+7)
Bet Amount: $1.89 (Son of Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: This is one game where I feel like the spread isn’t big enough.  New England has been very focused since losing to Buffalo three weeks ago, and there’s no way that Dallas’ secondary can slow them down.  Their only hope is to match them point for point in a shootout, and while it wouldn’t surprise me to see their offense put up 30 or more points, I’d be surprised if the Patriots put up less than 40.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
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TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
Computer’s Pick: New Orleans (-4.5)
Bet Amount: $0.12 (Son of Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: It doesn’t matter that the Buccaneers will be playing at home for this one – New Orleans has been ruthlessly efficient and has only been held to fewer than 30 points once this season.  Tampa Bay won’t be able to keep up.  The Saints should be able to wrap this one up early.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS
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CHICAGO BEARS
Computer’s Pick: Minnesota (+3)
Bet Amount: $2.24 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: The Vikings are better than their record would suggest, and while Chicago has had an incredibly tough schedule thus far, their defense simply isn’t performing the way it needs to be for them to be a playoff team.  That won’t matter too much against the Vikings, whose only weapon is Adrian Peterson, but Minnesota’s defense will present a separate set of problems for Cutler to deal with.  I think the Bears will commit too many mistakes early in the game, and will be forced to pass often in the second half, which will open the doors for the Vikings’ defensive line to tee off on Jay Cutler and force him to make a lot of mistakes.
MIAMI DOLPHINS
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NEW YORK JETS
Computer’s Pick: Miami (+7)
Bet Amount: $2.63 (Son of Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: I feel like a broken record, but the Jets’ offense can’t be trusted to cover a spread this big.  There’s a good chance that the spread will factor into this one.

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Week GAMBLOR SON OF GAMBLOR Profit
W L P Weighted Wins Weighted Picks Weighted Win % W L P Weighted Wins Weighted Picks Weighted Win %
1 7 6 2 331 1305 25.4% 5 3 497 2739 18.1% -$375.32
2 7 7 579 1184 48.9% 3 5 1897 4154 45.7% -$66.41
3 11 5 548 686 79.9% 3 4 935 1402 66.7% $136.36
4 6 10 143 572 25.0% 1 7 34 2711 1.3% -$404.87
5 6 6 1 376 679 55.4% 2 3 1 110 287 38.2% -$470.53
Total 37 34 3 1977 4426 44.7% 12 22 1 3473 11239 30.8% -$710.80