Gamblor Raids Again: Week 8 NFL Picks

Written by Football, Sports

Back in Week 2, Gamblor and Son of Gamblor combined for a $191 bet on the Minnesota Vikings, who were favored by 3 points when hosting the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.  The Viking surged out to a 17-0 lead by halftime, but pissed away their lead in the second half, eventually giving up a touchdown with just 31 seconds left on the clock to lose 24-20.  In Week 4, the computer had almost twice as much on the Eagles ($365), who were favored by 10 at home against the 49ers.  Philadelphia put together a 20-3 halftime lead – and then collapsed in the second half, eventually losing 24-23.  And last week, the San Diego Chargers, carrying Gamblor’s biggest bet of the week ($219), were up at halftime 21-10, and proceeded to go scoreless in the second half while giving up 17 points to the Jets.  Do these qualify as “bad beats?”  Probably not in the classical sense; none of them fell apart in the final seconds of the game except for the Vikings game.  But I’m getting sick and fucking tired of having my hopes raised in the first half, only to be dashed during the second part of the game.

All in all, last week could have been much worse for the computer.  Gamblor was 7-4-1 with its picks, but missed big on the Chargers game and ended up with a weighted win percentage of 30.6%.  Son of Gamblor was much better, going 3-1 with a weighted win percentage of 64.0%.  The computer’s overall loss for the week was only $75, thanks to victories on Sunday and Monday nights by the New Orleans Saints and Jacksonville Jaguars on its third- and second-biggest bets of the week, respectively.  This week, the Eagles have the chance to redeem themselves in my eyes as they face a hopefully still hobbled Dallas defense.

Away Home Spread Gamblor’s Pick Bet Amount Son of Gamblor’s Pick Bet Amount Overall Pick Overall Bet
IND at TEN -9 IND $15.37 IND $15.37
JAC at HOU -9.5 JAC $3.87 JAC $9.07 JAC $12.94
MIN at CAR -3.5 MIN $4.13 MIN
NOS at STL 13 NOS $0.77 NOS $2.59 NOS
ARI at BAL -13 BAL BAL
MIA at NYG -10 MIA $5.88 MIA $0.49 MIA $6.37
WAS at BUF -6 WAS $6.97 WAS $6.97
DET at DEN 3 DEN $9.43 DEN $5.20 DEN $14.62
NEP at PIT 3 PIT $5.55 PIT $2.20 PIT $7.76
CLE at SNF -9 CLE $6.13 CLE $0.71 CLE $6.85
CIN at SEA 3 SEA $12.85 SEA $12.85
DAL at PHI -3.5 PHI $135.59 PHI $200.07 PHI $335.66
SND at KAN 3.5 SND $10.20 SND $0.05 SND $10.25

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INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
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TENNESSEE TITANS
Computer’s Pick: Indianapolis (+9)
Bet Amount: $15.37 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: Tennessee looked absolutely helpless against Houston last week.  But compared to the Colts playing against the Saints, they practically looked like a Superbowl team.  Of the two teams, I think Indianapolis is likely to bounce back with more energy than the Titans.  Tennessee won’t see the Colts as legitimate competition, and are likely to phone this one in.  The Colts, on the other hand, are going to want to redeem themselves from the embarrassment they suffered at the hands of the Saints.  Despite how awful the Colts have looked this season, I have a hard time seeing them failing to keep this game tight enough for the spread to factor in.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
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HOUSTON TEXANS
Computer’s Pick: Jacksonville (+9.5)
Bet Amount: $12.94 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: Jacksonville’s defense looked incredible against Baltimore last weekend.  They won’t be able to deliver the same level of intensity against the Texans, especially if Andre Johnson makes an appearance, but they should be able to slow down Arian Foster enough to keep the score from getting out of hand.  I’m not so sure they’ll be able to come up with any points of their own to counter things, however.  I’m content with the computer’s pick here, because I think Jacksonville is decent enough to keep the game reasonably close, but I definitely don’t see the Jaguars as a high-percentage play.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS
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CAROLINA PANTHERS
Computer’s Pick: Minnesota (+3.5)
Bet Amount: $4.13 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: Carolina is ready to break out.  They suffered through the tougher part of their schedule (including games against Green Bay, Chicago, New Orleans, and Atlanta) and they should be able to reel off a pair victories this week and next week against the Titans.  Ponder looked fine against the Packers, but he’ll make a few mistakes and Carolina will take full advantage.  I think the Panthers will deliver a solid victory here.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
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SAINT LOUIS RAMS
Computer’s Pick: New Orleans (-13)
Bet Amount: $3.36 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: Will the Saints sleepwalk through this contest?  I doubt it.  If anything, last week’s game had the potential to expose some of their weaknesses, with Sean Payton unable to join them on the sidelines.  I think they’ll be focused well enough to completely dismantle the Rams here.  I’m just a bit sad the spread isn’t big enough to goose Gamblor into getting some money on the Saints.
ARIZONA CARDINALS
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BALTIMORE RAVENS
Computer’s Pick: Arizona (+13)
Bet Amount: None (Conflict)
COMMENTS: Again, this is another hugely lopsided matchup (there are a lot of those this week).  Arizona has nothing much going for it, while Baltimore is going to look to clean up its reputation after an ugly loss to Jacksonville in front of a national audience.  I don’t see Arizona managing to compete in this contest, and even if Baltimore’s offense keeps stalling, they should be able to scoop enough field goals and a defensive touchdown to cover the spread.
MIAMI DOLPHINS
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NEW YORK GIANTS
Computer’s Pick: Miami (+10)
Bet Amount: $6.37 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: Again, another blowout.  Miami’s spirits will have been completely broken after blowing a 15 point lead in the final minutes and seeing their home fans cheer on the opposing team’s quarterback.  They don’t have anything left to play for this season, so you can expect the Giants to have the spread covered by the end of the first quarter and keep the ball on the ground thereafter.
WASHINGTON REDSKINS
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BUFFALO BILLS
Computer’s Pick: Washington (+6)
Bet Amount: $6.97 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: Buffalo has cooled off considerably since the beginning of the season, which is why this matchup against the slumping Redskins suits them perfectly.  The Bills have only scored one big win – which happened during the first week, but with the Redskins having quarterback, running back, and wide receiver issues, it should be possible for Buffalo’s defense to shut down the Redskins and provide the offense with complete and total ball control, and Fitzpatrick is doing a competent enough job that they should be able to win by at least a touchdown.
DETROIT LIONS
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DENVER BRONCOS
Computer’s Pick: Denver (+3)
Bet Amount: $14.62 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: The only way this spread could make sense is if Stafford doesn’t play.  I’m a contrarian  by nature, so I’m actually happy to see Tebow succeed in the NFL, but I think last week’s victory was a fluke.  He’ll get a mighty welcome from the Denver faithful, but the Lions are a much better team than the Dolphins and he’ll be lucky to get any points against them at all.  Even without Stafford, I think Calvin Johnson is good enough to carry Detroit to a win, though it may not be a big one.  I am expecting a bet on Detroit should either win or push.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
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PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Computer’s Pick: Pittsburgh (+3)
Bet Amount: $7.76 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: Too much is being made of the idea that Tom Brady “owns” the Steelers.  They’re an organization full of proud veterans, and Ben Roethlisberger showed in Week 5 that he’s still capable of putting up big numbers when given the opportunity.  And New England’s defense will certainly be giving him that opportunity this week.  I’m sure that Brady will have great success against Pittsburgh’s aging defense, but I think the Steelers will have no trouble keeping up with them for much of the game.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see either team win this game, but I do think it will be pretty close and the spread should factor in if the Steelers don’t win this game outright.
CLEVELAND BROWNS
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SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
Computer’s Pick: Cleveland (+9)
Bet Amount: $6.85 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: The 49ers keep surprising me every week, but I think they’ll be a little slugging coming off the bye.  Nine points is too many for a quarterback like Alex Smith to cover, so I’m happy the computer has chosen to go with Cleveland here.
CINCINNATI BENGALS
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SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
Computer’s Pick: Seattle (+3)
Bet Amount: $12.85 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: Andy Dalton has done a spectacular job leading the Bengals to a 4-2 record, but he hasn’t faced a crowd like Seattle yet.  While Seattle is a truly terrible team, they’re infinitely better at home, and I’m expecting to see them come up with another surprise victory much like they did against the Giants.  Don’t ask me for specifics, because there’s really not a single thing that the Seahawks do particularly well, but I predict the bounces will go their way in this game and they’ll come out with a win.
DALLAS COWBOYS
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PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Computer’s Pick: Philadelphia (-3.5)
Bet Amount: $335.66 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: I’m not going to second-guess the computer on this one.  Philadelphia got a nice taste of victory against the Redskins, and I think they’ll come out of the bye week with both feet on the ground.  Vick has had some time for his aches and pains to heal, and while I’m sure he’ll develop a few more in this contest, I think we’ll see a spark from the Eagles.  I’m hoping the spread will drop half a point so the computer don’t throw so much money at this game (not to mention the potential for the dreaded 1/2 point loss) but most of the money is going towards Dallas, so I like to think that Vegas is baiting people into betting on a game that Philadelphia win convincingly.
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
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KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Computer’s Pick: San Diego (-3.5)
Bet Amount: $10.25 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: Kansas City has done an admirable job of turning their season around after starting out 0-3, and I think they’re in good shape to take a stab at grabbing the lead in the AFC West.  San Diego will perform at a much higher level than they did against the Jets, thanks to Kansas City’s somewhat softer defense. But I don’t think it will be enough, especially giving away a field goal on the road.  I like the Chiefs here.

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Week GAMBLOR SON OF GAMBLOR Profit
W L P Weighted Wins Weighted Picks Weighted Win % W L P Weighted Wins Weighted Picks Weighted Win %
1 7 6 2 331 1305 25.4% 5 3 497 2739 18.1% -$375.32
2 7 7 579 1184 48.9% 3 5 1897 4154 45.7% -$66.41
3 11 5 548 686 79.9% 3 4 935 1402 66.7% $136.36
4 6 10 143 572 25.0% 1 7 34 2711 1.3% -$404.87
5 6 6 1 376 679 55.4% 2 3 1 110 287 38.2% -$0.56
6 2 6 1 50 127 39.4% 3 4 28 51 54.2% -$1.21
7 7 4 1 323 1054 30.6% 3 1 663 1036 64.0% -$75.12
Total 46 44 5 2350 5607 41.9% 20 27 1 4164 12379 33.6% -$787.13