I Call Him SON OF GAMBLOR! Season Summary

Well, it ended up being a profitable season.  And over the three years it has been active, Gamblor has now crossed into positive territory.  Of course, as anyone who has followed the computer all season will know that it could have been so much better.  But money is money, so despite the computer’s recent losing streak, it still ended up being a pretty good year.

The computer started out its season with its best week of the year, turning a profit of $647, mainly won thanks to a huge victory by the Giants over Carolina.  The Giants continued to deliver huge profits for the computer, hitting big during Week 1 ($431), Week 9 ($517), and Week 13 ($363).  Unfortunately, the computer gave a lot of that back with tough losses in Week 10 (-$718) and Week 15 (-$148).  The Week 15 loss against the Eagles (which featured Michael Vick’s astonishing fourth-quarter performance and DeSean Jackson’s heart-wrenching punt return at the end of regulation time) was the worst – it changed a profitable week into a losing week, and precipitated the computer’s limping struggle to the finish line, when it dropped a thousand dollars in just three weeks.

This season’s nemesis turned out to be the Miami Dolphins.  Although the Dolphins delivered a few nice victories in the beginning of the season (including $151 in Week 6 and $265 in Week 7), they ultimately cost the computer a ton of money as they repeatedly failed to cover spreads as their season spun into a disastrous tailslide.  (-$108 in Week 11, -$900 in Week 13, -$68 in Week 15, $-42 in Week 16, and -$282.22 in Week 17).  The New Orleans Saints, Arizona Cardinals, and Minnesota Vikings were also pretty expensive for the computer this season, but were balanced out by solid seasons by the Chicago Bears, the Cincinnati Bengals, and (amazingly) the Washington Redskins.

The percentages for Gamblor’s different tiers were pretty consistent with its historical performance.  Although the 90% tier took a big hit late in the season, the curve below shows that it was generally in keeping with theory.  The hedge bets were disappointing yet again this year, which makes me glad that I switched the weighting in the beginning of the season, which severely limited the number of hedge bets that actually turned into bets by keeping them below the $5 threshold.  It’s possible I’ll retire the hedge model entirely next season, since between Gamblor and Son of Gamblor there tend to be enough bets during any given week.  Taken from a long-term perspective, this season actually ended leaving Gamblor essentially at the same place where it began its season.  So obviously it’s nothing to rejoice over, but it’s nothing to be concerned about either.

Son of Gamblor, on the other hand, behaved very strangely.  It started off the season brilliantly, hitting every single one of its peaks in the first week and maintaining a weighted win percentage of 70% through the first ten weeks of the season.  Unfortunately, its remaining weeks were catastrophic, hitting a low point during Week 17 when it hit an abysmal weighted percentage of just 1.7%.  In terms of confidence levels, it also delivered very strange results – performing its best at the 80-83% confidence levels and performing very poorly at levels above 90%.  The graph below shows its performance compared to its historical performance – and the oddness of this year’s results actually changed the shape of its lifetime curve.  Like Gamblor, the season ended up being something of a wash, with its lifetime total finishing pretty much exactly where it started.

Overall I finished the season with a profit of $222.34, off an initial investment of $1000.00.  And my any measure, a 22% return is pretty nice.  Add an extra $100 of the sportsbook’s sign-up bonus to that, and you’ve got a very worthwhile season of gambling.  I’ll be back in a few days with my Superbowl pick for the year, and once again I’ll be tinkering with the model in the off-season to see if I can squeeze a few more percentage points out of the system.

Week GAMBLOR SON OF GAMBLOR Profit
W L P Weighted Wins Weighted Picks Weighted Win % W L P Weighted Wins Weighted Picks Weighted Win %
1 9 4 3 1681 1876 89.6% 6 0 2 3692 3692 100.0% $647.02
2 10 5 1 918 1030 89.1% 5 3 - 486 491 99.0% $206.10
3 13 3 - 1203 1428 84.2% 5 4 - 1132 1988 56.9% $184.96
4 8 6 - 672 891 75.4% 3 4 - 1343 1832 73.3% $200.21
5 6 5 - 411 583 70.5% 9 3 - 974 1477 66.0% $372.58
6 4 7 1 432 559 77.3% 2 3 - 649 727 89.2% $121.28
7 8 6 - 666 2401 27.7% 3 4 - 1792 3924 45.7% -$291.65
8 7 5 - 507 1000 50.7% 6 2 - 1526 2876 53.1% $6.96
9 6 6 1 1625 1768 91.9% 5 2 - 1766 2017 87.6% $462.73
10 8 5 - 1077 2707 39.8% 3 5 - 1996 5620 35.5% -$337.12
11 6 10 - 260 999 26.0% 6 4 - 921 2577 35.7% -$204.94
12 9 7 - 354 631 56.1% 6 2 - 108 734 14.8% -$56.31
13 9 6 - 1084 2893 37.5% 4 4 - 2224 6584 33.8% -$431.29
14 10 6 - 515 642 80.2% 7 2 - 3395 3398 99.9% $479.91
15 4 11 1 144 798 18.0% 5 3 - 373 1569 23.8% -$215.00
16 5 10 1 192 714 26.9% 1 4 - 45 1577 2.9% -$256.77
17 6 9 - 178 1844 9.7% 3 4 - 45 2596 1.7% -$666.33
Total 129 111 7 11918 22763 52.4% 79 53 2 22467 43680 51.4% $222.34



  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_HQO4F3VWYICLIJU7PY74NE7BZE dadad dawdaw

    YOU MUST NOT MISS IT!!!

    ——- http://www.zzcnn.com ———-

    Our company specializes in manufacturing from located in CHINA and Netherlands,With more than 6 Years of experience,we are mainly dealing with are:Nike shox,Christan Audigier t-shirt,Ed Hardy,COACH Bag,New Era cap ,Tiffany_Ring. More products.Supply . COACH Bag,Nike shox.Ed Hardy t- shirt.
    Safe Payment.Paypal

    Fast Shipment.5-7 days you can receive your order product.
    No min order request.You can order only one product
    Free Shipping.The price on our website are including everything.

    ——— http://www.zzcnn.com ———-

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_HQO4F3VWYICLIJU7PY74NE7BZE dadad dawdaw

    YOU MUST NOT MISS IT!!!

    ——- http://www.zzcnn.com ———-

    Our company specializes in manufacturing from located in CHINA and Netherlands,With more than 6 Years of experience,we are mainly dealing with are:Nike shox,Christan Audigier t-shirt,Ed Hardy,COACH Bag,New Era cap ,Tiffany_Ring. More products.Supply . COACH Bag,Nike shox.Ed Hardy t- shirt.
    Safe Payment.Paypal

    Fast Shipment.5-7 days you can receive your order product.
    No min order request.You can order only one product
    Free Shipping.The price on our website are including everything.

    ——— http://www.zzcnn.com ———-