I Call Him SON OF GAMBLOR! Week 11 NFL Picks

Written by Football, Sports

UPDATE: Well, the computer started off its week in a hole, as it badly missed its top play for the week last night.  The table below shows my final bets; the biggest change is that the computer now has a decent-size bet on the Baltimore Ravens, and the bet on the New Orleans Saints is twenty dollars smaller than it was before, and the line movement in the Arizona game means the computer isn’t quite as enthusiastic as it was before.

Well, my euphoria over hitting the biggest bet of my lifetime two weeks ago evaporated pretty quickly, because Gamblor picked out an even bigger bet last weekend, and missed it.  Badly.  I was worried that a team with big-play potential like Dallas could spell trouble, and they exceeded everyone’s expectations (even Vegas, who set a line that ended up balancing the action relatively well – if they had any inkling that Dallas was actually planning to show up to this game they would have set the line much lower, at -10.5 or so).  Fortunately, the computer was able to recoup quite a bit of its losses courtesy of Tampa Bay, who delivered a solid win over Carolina despite the Panthers’ flirtation with a backdoor push at the end of regulation.  The overall win percentages were 39.8% for Gamblor (with a record of 8-5) and 35.5% (with a record of 3-5) for Son of Gamblor, and the total loss for the week was $337.12.  Disappointing, but far more palatable than what could have happened, considering I had over $1,200 in wagers.

Things are a little more relaxed this week.  We’re back to sixteen games, yet the computer only has three moderately big bets this week – Miami, Arizona, and New Orleans.

Away Home Spread Gamblor’s Pick Bet Amount Son of Gamblor’s Pick Bet Amount Overall Pick Overall Bet
CHI at MIA -1 MIA $14.98 MIA $93.24 MIA $108.22
OAK at PIT -7 OAK $9.76 PIT $3.19 OAK $6.56
HOU at NYJ -7 HOU $12.99 HOU $12.99
BAL at CAR 11 BAL $4.77 BAL $12.63 BAL $17.40
WAS at TEN -7 WAS $18.95 WAS $18.95
DET at DAL -6.5 DET $2.10 DAL $9.98 DAL $7.89
GNB at MIN 3 MIN $5.73 MIN $5.73
BUF at CIN -5.5 BUF $13.79 BUF $13.79
CLE at JAC -1.5 JAC $4.71 JAC $17.51 JAC $22.22
ARI at KAN -8.5 ARI $82.89 ARI $20.65 ARI $103.54
SEA at NOS -11.5 SEA $4.25 NOS $60.23 NOS $55.97
ATL at STL 3 STL $7.15 ATL $0.95 STL $6.20
TAM at SNF -3.5 SNF $10.50 SNF $56.09 SNF $66.58
IND at NEP -4 IND $1.70 IND
NYG at PHI -3 NYG $12.82 NYG $17.87 NYG $30.69
DEN at SND -10 DEN $19.52 DEN $19.52

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CHICAGO BEARS
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MIAMI DOLPHINS
Computer’s Pick: Miami (-1)
Bet Amount: $108.22 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: I LOVE this bet.  I know that Miami is without its first or second-string quarterback, but whoever is throwing the ball hasn’t seemed to matter all that much to the Dolphins anyhow, and teams normally put forth more of an effort when they’re missing their regular QB – and it’s not like Thigpen is some rookie being thrown to the wolves.  The Dolphins will keep the ball on the ground, and put sufficient pressure on Cutler that he’ll resume his pattern of making mistakes, so I expect them to pull of a solid, if unspectacular, victory in this contest.
OAKLAND RAIDERS
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PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Computer’s Pick: Oakland (+7)
Bet Amount: $6.56 (Conflict)
COMMENTS: I so desperately want the Raiders to win this game, because if they do, believe it or not, they actually would be in position to have a first-round bye in the playoffs.  I’m not joking.  It would require Baltimore and Indianapolis to both lose, and the Raiders would have to win out the season, but even the *theoretical* possibility is the most exciting thing to happen to that franchise in years.  Of course, we all know that they’re going to lose to Pittsburgh, and then have the snot beaten out of them by San Diego down the stretch, but I actually think they’ll be able to cover the spread in this game.  They’re nice and fresh and healthy off a bye week and Pittsburgh is pretty banged-up.
HOUSTON TEXANS
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NEW YORK JETS
Computer’s Pick: Houston (+7)
Bet Amount: $12.99 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: Once again, I think this spread gives the Jets offense far too much credit.  The Jets should win, but they’ll take their foot off Houston’s neck in the last half of the fourth quarter and the Texans will pull off a backdoor cover.
BALTIMORE RAVENS
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CAROLINA PANTHERS
Computer’s Pick: Baltimore (-10)
Bet Amount: $2.79 (Conflict)
COMMENTS: Carolina is simply helpless, and I’ve profited off them immensely this season.  It’s a shame I won’t get to do so again.
WASHINGTON REDSKINS
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TENNESSEE TITANS
Computer’s Pick: Washington (+7)
Bet Amount: $18.95 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: I’m not sure that Washington was really as terrible as Michael Vick made them look last Monday.  This should be a reasonably close game, and as such, I’ll gladly take the seven points.
DETROIT LIONS
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DALLAS COWBOYS
Computer’s Pick: Dallas (-6.5)
Bet Amount: $7.89 (Conflict)
COMMENTS: Has Dallas really bounced back to the point where they’re worthy of being such huge favorites?  In a word, no.  If the Giants had scored just before halftime (instead of Manning tossing a 100+ yard TAINT), that would have been an entirely different game.  Detroit has been a solid underdog this season, and I think they’ll keep it up here against a Dallas team that will let a lucky victory go straight to their head.
GREEN BAY PACKERS
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MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Computer’s Pick: Minnesota (+3)
Bet Amount: $5.73 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: Bye bye $5.73.  The Vikings are in shambles right now, and the Packers will run circles around them.
BUFFALO BILLS
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CINCINNATI BENGALS
Computer’s Pick: Buffalo (+5.5)
Bet Amount: $13.79 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: I can’t say I paid enough attention to either of these teams this season to have a very good read on this game.  Of course, it’s not like I have a particularly good read on teams that I *did* pay attention to.  I’m guessing that Buffalo will relax a little after finally having saved themselves from joining Detroit in the history books, and that Cincinnati will be the cheerful recipient of their largesse.
CLEVELAND BROWNS
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JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
Computer’s Pick: Jacksonville (-1)
Bet Amount: $16.87 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: I suppose Jacksonville is going to quietly keep on rolling.  Looks like they might not be headed for L.A. after all.
ARIZONA CARDINALS
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KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Computer’s Pick: Arizona (+8)
Bet Amount: $114.61 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: I also love the computer’s decision in this game.  Kansas City’s strengths have been steadily eroding, while their weaknesses have come into focus.  I know that Arizona doesn’t have anyone on their roster that even resembles a starting quarterback, but they should be able to slow down the Chiefs enough to keep up with an 8 point spread.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
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NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
Computer’s Pick: New Orleans (-12)
Bet Amount: $71.29 (Conflict)
COMMENTS: Son of Gamblor is the driving force behind this bet, expecting that Seattle’s reaction to the time change and the long flight will affect them adversely and lead to an easy with for the Saints.  Supposedly Reggie Bush will be back for the Saints, so that might have a dramatic effect on the Saints’ ability to score points.  We’ll see, but I’m not too concerned about the Seahawks making a game out of this one.
ATLANTA FALCONS
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SAINT LOUIS RAMS
Computer’s Pick: St. Louis (+3)
Bet Amount: $6.20 (Conflict)
COMMENTS: Wow.  This line certainly feels like a trap, though Gamblor doesn’t seem to think so.  This game will mean a lot to the Rams, who are the playoff hunt (though in the abysmal NFC West, who *isn’t* in the playoff hunt?) but the Falcons have the Saints and Buccaneers breathing down their neck, so I can’t imagine they’ll phone this one in.  I guess I’m glad I don’t have much on the line here, though I actually envision a push taking place here.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
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SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
Computer’s Pick: San Francisco (-3)
Bet Amount: $48.28 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: Gamblor is relatively disinterested in this game, while his son is a big fan of the 49ers.  I am too.  And I can’t explain why – I just have a strong feeling that the 49ers are going to build on the momentum that Troy Smith brought along last week, and put together a strong performance against a Tampa Bay team that will be traveling across the country for this one.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
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NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Computer’s Pick: Indianapolis (+3)
Bet Amount: $1.30 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: I certainly hope this game is as exciting as it’s billed to be.  It’s been disappointing to see Manning struggle due to his lack of functional receivers, but Austin Collie might be back so things should open up a little for him here.  I think the spread is pretty much perfect – this is going to be a tight game that could go either way.
NEW YORK GIANTS
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PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Computer’s Pick: New York Giants (+3)
Bet Amount: $30.69 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: Monday night’s game was definitely the first time I’ve ever personally watched the score of a fantasy football game that I wasn’t in – two of the top teams in our league were playing and the player who owned (and started) Michael Vick was down 145-91 at the beginning of the night.  He won 148-146.  No less than five of us were actively watching and commenting on the game – a FANTASY game.  I have absolutely no idea how the Giants expect to stop Michael Vick – the only thing they can do is try to keep the ball out of his hands for as much time as possible.  Or cripple him, like they’ve done with just about every other quarterback they’ve faced.  I don’t get the sense that Vick’s performance last Monday was a fluke – he’ll take the opportunity to shine again, and the Eagles should put up a LOT of points on the Giants.
DENVER BRONCOS
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SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
Computer’s Pick: Denver (+10)
Bet Amount: $19.52 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: I’d love to see the Broncos make a game out of this, but I think it’s pretty unlikely, even without Antonio Gates or Ryan Matthews on the field for the Chargers.  Rivers will get it done by any means necessary, the same way he’s been doing all season.

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Week GAMBLOR SON OF GAMBLOR Profit
W L P Weighted Wins Weighted Picks Weighted Win % W L P Weighted Wins Weighted Picks Weighted Win %
1 9 4 3 1681 1876 89.6% 6 0 2 3692 3692 100.0% $647.02
2 10 5 1 918 1030 89.1% 5 3 486 491 99.0% $206.10
3 13 3 1203 1428 84.2% 5 4 1132 1988 56.9% $184.96
4 8 6 672 891 75.4% 3 4 1343 1832 73.3% $200.21
5 6 5 411 583 70.5% 9 3 974 1477 66.0% $372.58
6 4 7 1 432 559 77.3% 2 3 649 727 89.2% $121.28
7 8 6 666 2401 27.7% 3 4 1792 3924 45.7% -$291.65
8 7 5 507 1000 50.7% 6 2 1526 2876 53.1% $6.96
9 6 6 1 1625 1768 91.9% 5 2 1766 2017 87.6% $462.73
10 8 5 1077 2707 39.8% 3 5 1996 5620 35.5% -$337.12
Total 79 52 6 9190 14242 64.5% 47 30 2 15356 24645 62.3% $1,573.07