I Call Him SON OF GAMBLOR! Week 13 NFL Picks

FRIDAY UPDATE: The Dolphins line moved up a half-point, which I actually find rather encouraging.  The computer now has $900 invested in that game.  I doubt I’ll watch – I don’t think my nerves can handle it.

Last week was a very quiet week for the computer – with just one big bet that lost on a brutal backdoor cover, the computer lost a total of $56 for the week.  Gamblor delivered a respectable weighted win percentage of 56.1%, but was dragged down by Son of Gamblor, who bet big on the Ravens and little else finished with a dismal weighted win percentage of 14.8% – a season low for either model.  This Sunday I’ll be in Mammoth, where I intend to go big or go home.  Of course, even if I do go big, I’ll also be going home later that day.  Gamblor has decided to show its sympathy by following suit – this week, every last penny of its winnings thus far this season will be on the line.  Most of it on the Miami Dolphins, but it’s also putting an awful lot of faith in the New York Giants.

HOUSTON TEXANS at PHILADELPHIA EAGLES Computer’s Pick: Houston (+8) Bet Amount: $7.35 (Gamblor Only)

COMMENTS: I know the Eagles look pretty unstoppable on offense, but eight points is an awful lot to lay against the Texans, particularly since Andre Johnson will be on the field.  The Texans will make an effort to keep the ball in Arian Foster’s hands and slow things down, and I think their strategy should probably enable them to stay in this game.  Plus, they’ve definitely got the offensive firepower to deliver a backdoor cover even if they do fall far behind.  I like the computer’s pick here.

BUFFALO BILLS at MINNESOTA VIKINGS Computer’s Pick: Minnesota (-5.5) Bet Amount: $18.89 (Consensus)

COMMENTS: This will be one the last home games of Brett Favre’s career.  Guaranteed.  He won’t be able to tease Frazier the way he did to Childress at the beginning of next season, so even if he does play I doubt it will be for the Vikings.  As such, I think he’ll take advantage of a weak opponent like Buffalo to put on one last great show for the fans.  Furthermore, I think the Bills will be completely demoralized by blowing their opportunity to beat the Steelers last week and won’t bother to show up.

CLEVELAND BROWNS at MIAMI DOLPHINS Computer’s Pick: Miami (-4.5) Bet Amount: $808.27 (Consensus)

COMMENTS: It’s the computer’s biggest bet of its career, and I guess I feel okay about it.  Cleveland sucks and they should have lost last week, but they’ve managed to keep most games close.  I’m hoping that they’ll treat their trip to Miami like a vacation and completely neglect to prepare for this football game – after all, with Colt McCoy gone their season is effectively over.  Meanwhile, Miami’s talented backs should pick up where Jonathan Stewart and Mike Goodson left off.  Miami certainly looked capable of winning big when they humiliated the Raiders last week, and if they can find a way to stop Peyton Hillis, they should be able to come away with a solid victory here.

DENVER BRONCOS at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS Computer’s Pick: Denver (+9) Bet Amount: $11.17 (Gamblor only)

COMMENTS: Pretty classic opportunity for a backdoor cover and lots of fantasy points for Kyle Orton and Brandon Lloyd in garbage time after Kansas City surges out to an early lead and sit on the ball thereafter.

WASHINGTON REDSKINS at NEW YORK GIANTS Computer’s Pick: NY Giants (-7) Bet Amount: $365.08 (Consensus)

COMMENTS: Another pretty hefty bet by the computer, and I can’t pretend to feel comfortable about this one.  The Giants wide receivers have been dropping like flies, and the lack of options has taken its toll on Eli Manning.  The running game of the Giants should pick up the slack, however.  The Redskins are a mixed bag, though it’s hard to envision them getting blown out by a divisional rival.  I feel like this one has the potential to be close, though I certainly hope I’m wrong.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS at GREEN BAY PACKERS Computer’s Pick: San Francisco (+9.5) Bet Amount: $0.17 (Conflict)

COMMENTS: I’m glad the computer isn’t bothering to sink any money into this one.  San Francisco looked fine against Arizona, but that might as well have been a  high school team compared to the Packers, who are strong in pretty much every area.  I think Brian Mitchell will come back to earth after last week’s magnificent performance in place of the injured Frank Gore, and I think Green Bay will deliver their third blowout in four weeks.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS at CINCINNATI BENGALS Computer’s Pick: Cincinnati (+7) Bet Amount: $14.35 (Gamblor only)

COMMENTS: Ugh.  Cincinnati is a far cry from the contender they turned out to be last year, and at this point they’ll be experimenting a bit with players to see who needs to be replaced in next year’s draft.  Should be an easy blowout for the Saints, who are starting to get tuned up just in time for the stretch and the playoffs.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS at TENNESSEE TITANS Computer’s Pick: Jacksonville (+3) Bet Amount: $20.78 (Gamblor only)

COMMENTS: No line yet on this game – it’s dependent on whether or not Kerry Collins is going to play.  If not, bet the farm on Jacksonville.  If so, take the points (whichever side is getting them)

CHICAGO BEARS at DETROIT LIONS Computer’s Pick: Detroit (+3.5) Bet Amount: $10.07 (Gamblor only)

COMMENTS: I’m not entirely sure whether Chicago will take this game seriously enough.  Their division lead is pretty precarious, and with Green Bay facing an inferior opponent, they certainly won’t want to give a game away.  But Jay Cutler is capable of some pretty spectacularly bad decisions.  If his pass protection holds up, he should be fine.  If not – and there’s a good chance it won’t – he’ll run into quite a bit of trouble.  I think Detroit will surprise me and everyone else by covering this spread, though it’s hard to figure out exactly how.

OAKLAND RAIDERS at SAN DIEGO CHARGERS Computer’s Pick: Oakland (+13) Bet Amount: $6.37 (Gamblor only)

COMMENTS: Oakland looked terrible against Miami last week at home, and they’ll look even worse against San Diego on the road.  I am very confident that this will be a very embarrassing game for the Raiders.

ATLANTA FALCONS at TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS Computer’s Pick: Tampa Bay (+3) Bet Amount: $2.89 (Consensus)

COMMENTS: I love seeing Tampa Bay play so well this season, but I just think they’re too inexperienced to keep up with Atlanta.  They’ll get revenge next year, but I think Atlanta will control the ball too well to give Tampa Bay much of a chance in this one.

CAROLINA PANTHERS at SEATTLE SEAHAWKS Computer’s Pick: Seattle (-6) Bet Amount: $49.73 (Consensus)

COMMENTS: Carolina played surprisingly well against the Browns last week, and actually should match up decently against the Seahawks.  If this game were in Carolina, I’d actually feel good about their chances.  However, the way they lost last week combined with the cross-country trip will sap most of their energy, so this should end up being a blowout in Seattle’s favor.

DALLAS COWBOYS at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS Computer’s Pick: Dallas (+5.5) Bet Amount: $5.03 (Conflict)

COMMENTS: I think Indianapolis is going to bounce back in a huge way from last week’s disappointment.  Manning always struggles against the Chargers, even *with* his best receivers on the field, so last week’s performance was no particular surprise.  However, with Austin Collie potentially coming back, as well as an increasing rapport with the substitutes that have filled in, the Colts offense will finally start to get back into gear.  Meanwhile, Dallas’ troubles will resurface in the wake of last week’s disappointing blown game against the Saints.

SAINT LOUIS RAMS at ARIZONA CARDINALS Computer’s Pick: Arizona (+3.5) Bet Amount: $4.98 (Gamblor only)

COMMENTS: It’s pretty humiliating for Arizona to be this much of an underdog at home, especially against a team that doesn’t even have a winning record, but there isn’t a whole lot they can do about it, because they’re terrible in pretty much every aspect at this point.  Look for Derek Anderson’s career to go down in flames as he throws half a dozen interceptions.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS at BALTIMORE RAVENS Computer’s Pick: Pittsburgh (+3) Bet Amount: $7.14 (Conflict)

COMMENTS: I’m looking forward to this game.  I’m sure NBC is too.  This spread tells us that Vegas thinks this one is a toss-up, giving Baltimore the nod due to home-field advantage, and I can’t disagree.  The computer is split on this one, with Gamblor pulling harder for Pittsburgh as a hedge bet and Son of Gamblor thinking the spread is just a little bit bigger than it should be.  I’m fine with getting the points in this one, though it’s really hard to make a call in a game that will probably be decided by a late score.

NEW YORK JETS at NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS Computer’s Pick: NY Jets (+3.5) Bet Amount: $7.29 (Gamblor only)

COMMENTS: This week’s NFL schedule is saving the best for last, though I don’t actually see this as being a fair fight.  Belichick hates the Jets and will have been planning for this game for months.  This is a hump game for the Jets, in that they’ll be taken very seriously as a Superbowl contender if they manage to win.  But I don’t think they will – and I actually don’t think it will be all that close.  Brady is looking too sharp right now.