I Call Him SON OF GAMBLOR! Week 7 NFL Picks

Written by Football, Sports

UPDATE: they finally posted spreads for the Jacksonville – Kansas City, Philadelphia – Tennessee, and Oakland – Denver games, with no big surprises.  They also moved the spread down to 2.5 in the Minnesota – Green Bay game, which means I’m on the hook for an even bigger bet.  My total bets for Week 7 now amount to almost $1000 – it’s going to be a pretty intense weekend.

Well, I know I declared last week to be a bye week for the computer, and it almost was, but at the last minute they put out a short line for the Miami – Green Bay game and I was forced, kicking and screaming, to put down a $151 bet on the Dolphins.  To my surprise, it paid off, which was fortunate because the computer’s bets went 0-4 otherwise.  Courtesy of that big win, it actually turned into a pretty profitable week for the computer, as Gamblor managed a weighted win percentage of 77.3% and Son of Gamblor was even better at 89.2%.

I know I said that this week’s feature would be the Top 5 NFL Announcer Gaffes (if you’ve got suggestions feel free to leave them in the comments), but that was before I heard the inspirational story of Indianapolis Colts’ punter Pat McAfee.  Or rather, before I read his arrest report, which contains such gems as his reply to police officers’ question of how much he’d had to drink: “A lot because I am drunk.”  So I thought for this week, I’d hastily put together the NFL’s All-Drunk team, featuring some of the drinkiest drunks who have ever drank a drink.

NFL All-Drunk Team

Offense

QB – Joe Namath (New York Jets)

RB1 – Corey Dillon (Cincinnati Bengals)

RB2 – John Riggins (Washington Redskins)

WR1 – Chris Henry (Cincinnati Bengals)

WR2 – Warren Wells (Oakland Raiders)

TE – Jeremy Shockey (New Orleans Saints)

LT – John “Jumbo” Elliott (New York Giants)

LG – Matt O’Dwyer (New York Jets)

C – Couldn’t find anybody.

RG – Marco Rivera (Green Bay Packers)

RT – Khalif Barners (Jacksonville Jaguars)

Defense

DE – Leonard Little (St. Louis Rams)

DT – John Matuszak (Oakland Raiders)

DT – John Gill (Indianapolis Colts)

DE – Jevon Kearse (Tennessee Titans)

LLB – Steve Foley (San Diego Chargers)

MLB – Lawrence Taylor (New York Giants)

RLB – Ray Maualuga (Cincinnati Bengals)

CB – Pacman Jones (Dallas Cowboys)

CB – Cletis Gordon (San Diego Chargers)

SS – Darren Perry (New Orleans Saints)

FS – Tremain Mack (Cincinnati Bengals)

Special Teams:

K – Jeff Reed (Pittsburgh Steelers)

P – Pat McAfee (Indianapolis Colts)

And on to the picks!  Gamblor and Son of Gamblor have emerged from hibernation with a vengeance, putting down an estimated total of $908 between them (some lines have yet to be posted, but aren’t likely to produce major swings).  The computer is once again very enthusiastic about the Miami Dolphins, would love to push its winning streak against Carolina, and yet again faces a short line in Green Bay and can’t resist the bait.

Away Home Spread Gamblor’s Pick Bet Amount Son of Gamblor’s Pick Bet Amount Overall Pick Overall Bet
PIT at MIA 3 MIA $103.37 MIA $162.30 MIA $265.67
CIN at ATL -3.5 CIN $5.23 CIN $9.61 CIN $14.84
WAS at CHI -3 WAS $4.63 WAS
CLE at NOS -13 NOS $27.31 NOS $46.85 NOS $74.16
JAC at KAN -9 JAC $9.38 JAC $9.38
BUF at BAL -13 BUF $5.62 BUF $5.62
PHI at TEN -3 TEN $2.62 TEN $17.22 TEN $19.83
STL at TAM -3 STL $6.16 STL $6.16
SNF at CAR 3 SNF $162.47 SNF $11.20 SNF $173.66
ARI at SEA -5.5 ARI $8.67 ARI $8.67
NEP at SND -3 NEP $2.67 NEP
OAK at DEN -8.5 OAK $6.87 OAK $6.87
MIN at GNB -2.5 MIN $165.30 MIN $164.86 MIN $330.16
NYG at DAL -3 NYG $13.30 NYG $15.83 NYG $29.13

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PITTSBURGH STEELERS
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MIAMI DOLPHINS
Computer’s Pick: Miami (+3)
Bet Amount: $265.67 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: Miami fought tough against the Packers last week, taking home a hard-fought overtime victory on the road, but that was against a very damaged Green Bay squad.  While I’m sure they were energized by their success, they’ll be facing a Pittsburgh Steelers team that is looking very much like a Superbowl contender right now.  I’m not sure they’re up to the task.  Fortunately for the Dolphins, they’re at home.  I keep expecting the Steelers to take a week off, but they really haven’t done so yet.  Once again in the Dolphins favor, this might be the Steelers’ last chance for a while.  With three quality opponents coming up in the future, this just might be their last chance for a little breather.  And let’s not forget that the Steelers have a pretty shady history of failing to cover spreads.  I think this spread is designed to tempt Steelers fans, and that the Dolphins will somehow end up finishing with just enough points to cover it.
CINCINNATI BENGALS
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ATLANTA FALCONS
Computer’s Pick: Cincinnati (+3.5)
Bet Amount: $14.84 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: Atlanta is solid at home, no matter who they’re playing against.  Cincinnati’s defense has kept them competitive in a lot of contests, but their lack of offense will cripple them here and Atlanta will eventually pull away.
WASHINGTON REDSKINS
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CHICAGO BEARS
Computer’s Pick: Washington (+3)
Bet Amount: $4.63 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: These teams seem to be headed in different directions.  Washington is on the upswing – after a ferocious victory against Green Bay two weeks ago, the Redskins managed to run with the Colts before eventually losing.  Chicago is headed down – after an ugly, ugly victory over Carolina, the Bears got soundly beaten at home by the lousy Seahawks.  I’m not really sure what to make of this one.  Washington is one of those teams where I can’t seem to accept that they’re actually decent (I’m the same way about Philadelphia) and I always expect Chicago to perform better than they actually do.  So based on that, I’ll agree with Gamblor and anticipate a Redskins cover here.
CLEVELAND BROWNS
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NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
Computer’s Pick: New Orleans (-13.5)
Bet Amount: $90.24 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: I think the Saints will have enjoyed the taste of last week’s blowout against the Buccaneers and will aim to repeat the performance.  The only question is whether they’ll take the Browns seriously enough to do so.  When a team’s name abbreviates so simply to form the word “Clowns,” it’s hard to keep from snickering, but I think the Saints will be just fine here.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
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KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Computer’s Pick: Jacksonville (+7)
Bet Amount: $8.12 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: No line yet, but I’m sure Kansas City will be favored by a healthy amount after Jacksonville looked so terrible in Monday night’s laugher of a loss to the Titans.  It’s hard to believe the Jaguars are actually 3-3.  But they are, and as such I think maybe they’ll be able to keep this one close against a Kansas City team whose weaknesses are starting to catch up to them.
BUFFALO BILLS
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BALTIMORE RAVENS
Computer’s Pick: Buffalo (+13)
Bet Amount: $5.62 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: It’s hard to imagine how Buffalo could possible be competitive against a team like the Ravens – and they probably won’t be.  But there’s only been one Baltimore victory of greater than 13 points so far this season – against Denver in Week 5.  Having a healthy Ray Rice will actually work against Baltimore from a betting perspective – he’ll see more action and the Ravens won’t run up the score.  Look for a tight game with a late Baltimore score or a backdoor cover from the Bills in this one.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
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TENNESSEE TITANS
Computer’s Pick: Tennessee (-3)
Bet Amount: $19.83 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: As I mentioned above, I have a hard time ever accepting that the Eagles are a quality team.  And it’s not because I have anything against them – I hate the Chargers with a passion and I still think they’re good, despite their terrible record so far.  I just have a mental block against accepting the Eagles as “good.”  But despite my attempts to remain objective, I just can’t help but expect them to underachieve in this game against the Titans.  It’s on the road, it’s not a divisional contest, and they’ll be distracted by wondering whether the Cowboys can play spoiler against the Giants on Monday night and deliver them an undisputed lead in the division.
SAINT LOUIS RAMS
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TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
Computer’s Pick: St. Louis (+2.5)
Bet Amount: $6.08 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: I had high hopes for Tampa Bay at the beginning of this season. They’re looking pretty good at 3-2, but I have a feeling last week’s loss to the Saints will have taken a lot of the wind out of their sails.  They’ll need a solid win over St. Louis to right their bearings.  Unfortunately for them, St. Louis bounced back very nicely from their blowout against the Lions and delivered a nice victory over a disjointed Chargers team.  I think the home field advantage will be just enough to deliver a win (and a cover) for the Buccaneers, but it’s going to be close.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
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CAROLINA PANTHERS
Computer’s Pick: San Francisco (-3)
Bet Amount: $173.66 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: The computer has made a lot of money betting against Carolina this year, but I’m starting to get worried that its luck is going to run out.  That said, how can anyone possibly bet on this Carolina team right now?  They haven’t scored more than 18 points in a game (including preseason!) and have been held to a touchdown or less three times so far this season.  They managed to lose a game to a team whose quarterback threw four interceptions – by 17 points!  Is it really possible they’ll be able to score at all against San Francisco, whose defense is supposedly a source of pride?  Not really, no.  As nervous as it makes me to push a winning streak, it’s definitely time to fade the Panthers until they burn me for it.
ARIZONA CARDINALS
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SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
Computer’s Pick: Arizona (+5.5)
Bet Amount: $8.67 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: Last year Seattle was one of my nemeses.  Green Bay was the other, of course, and this season both teams have obliged me in delivering some major wins.  Gamblor has been 4-1 when picking games that involve the Seahawks, and 4-2 with the Packers. But it’s hard to trust Seattle to cover a 5.5 point spread, even at home where they’re traditionally very tough.  Then again, Arizona is starting Max Hall at quarterback, so there’s plenty of potential he’ll have a Clausenesque opening and fumble the ball away like it’s been soaked in grease all week.  I’m going to have to disagree with Gamblor here and predict a solid Seahawks victory.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
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SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
Computer’s Pick: New England (+3)
Bet Amount: $2.67 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: You’d think that this would be the perfect game to break San Diego out of their slump.  At home, against a rival they’ll be hoping to see again in the playoffs, facing an incredibly feeble defense that gave up 30 points to the Bills – the Bills!  But the Patriots just keep on finding ways to win games, and the Chargers are lacking some of their deadliest weapons due to injuries.  It’s possible that Ryan Matthews will finally have a breakout game, but it’s more likely that Belichick will have found a way to effectively reconfigure his offense to account for the loss of Randy Moss and San Diego will be their first victim.
OAKLAND RAIDERS
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DENVER BRONCOS
Computer’s Pick: Oakland (+8.5)
Bet Amount: $7.52 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: This is a divisional game, and as such will probably end up being pretty close.  The Raiders looked pathetic against the 49ers, as Jason Campbell apparently suffered from some kind of hysterical blindness that kept him from seeing a wide open Zach Miller until late in the 4th quarter.  The Raiders ought to be able to cover this spread, but I’m not sure I’ll ever trust them with money on the line.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS
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GREEN BAY PACKERS
Computer’s Pick: Minnesota (+3)
Bet Amount: $278.59 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: I’m pretty uncomfortable about this one, because it’s a three hundred dollar bet that in my opinion comes down to little more than a coin toss.  Both teams are going to feel that their season is on the line, and while Green Bay is suffering from a multitude of injuries, they’ll be getting Clay Matthews back, who makes a huge difference to their defense.  The Vikings will be benefiting from an extra week for Brett Farve to work with Randy Moss.  Plus the initial confusion in the wake of allegations of Farve’s misbehavior should have worn off by now and been replaced with team solidarity.  I expect this game to be a shootout with a lot of spectacular offensive and defense plays that is either won or lost by Farve at the end.  So I guess I’d say I’m pessimistic that I’m going to see a serious dent put in my season’s winnings here.  Should be a great game to watch, though.
NEW YORK GIANTS
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DALLAS COWBOYS
Computer’s Pick: NY Giants (+3)
Bet Amount: $29.13 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: When you assemble as large a collection of talent on one team as the Cowboys have, you’re forced to assemble a similarly large collection of egos.  This is the point in the season where I expect those egos to start rubbing against each other in the wake of the team’s failure to execute.  The Giants will no doubt be the beneficiary of this, as they rely heavily on their running game to keep the Cowboys defense on the field and make each three-and-out from the Cowboys offense seem shorter than the last.  I like what the computer has done here.

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Week GAMBLOR SON OF GAMBLOR Profit
W L P Weighted Wins Weighted Picks Weighted Win % W L P Weighted Wins Weighted Picks Weighted Win %
1 9 4 3 1681 1876 89.6% 6 0 2 3692 3692 100.0% $647.02
2 10 5 1 918 1030 89.1% 5 3 486 491 99.0% $206.10
3 13 3 1203 1428 84.2% 5 4 1132 1988 56.9% $184.96
4 8 6 672 891 75.4% 3 4 1343 1832 73.3% $200.21
5 6 5 411 583 70.5% 9 3 974 1477 66.0% $372.58
6 4 7 1 432 559 77.3% 2 3 649 727 89.2% $121.28
Total 50 30 5 5316.6 6366.9 83.5% 30 17 2 8276.1 10208.0 81.1% $1,732.15