I Call Him SON OF GAMBLOR! Week 9 NFL Picks

Written by Football, Sports

UPDATE: Strange things are afoot with regards to the Seattle game – it was announced yesterday that Matt Hasselbeck wouldn’t be playing, so the game was pulled off the board.  And today it’s back, with the exact same spread as before.  A bit odd.  But of course Gamblor cares naught for that.  There have been a number of line changes; they’ll be reflected in the summary table but not in the write-ups.  Nothing major, anyhow.  Also, what in God’s name was I thinking posting that stupid Def Leppard video?  I’ve put something more appropriate in its place.

Last week was heartbreaking.  Not because I lost money – the computer actually made a very modest profit of $7.  But if you were keeping close track of the Arizona game (which I was, since it was my biggest bet of the week), you would have seen no less than four – FOUR – specific instances where my hopes were raised up and dashed back to the ground.  Losses happen – but to see Arizona put together such an incredible three-touchdown comeback to go up 35-31, then surrender the lead, then turn the ball over, then get a breath of life (and great field position) from a missed field goal, then turn the ball over again near the Tampa Bay goal line, then give up a 49 yard run to give up any hope at for a game-tying field goal at the end of regulation…well, let’s just say it really sucked. I’d have preferred it if they had just gotten blown out.

Sorry for the lack of a feature this week – I’m staying in a developer-owned condo without a wireless router so I’m stuck sitting inthea corner connecting directly to the cable modem.  Announcer Gaffes will have to wait yet again.  Good luck this week!

Away Home Spread Gamblor’s Pick Bet Amount Son of Gamblor’s Pick Bet Amount Overall Pick Overall Bet
CHI at BUF 3 BUF $4.84 BUF
SND at HOU 3 HOU $7.23 HOU $7.23
NOS at CAR 6.5 NOS $0.67 NOS $0.99 NOS
ARI at MIN -8 ARI $20.02 ARI $8.68 ARI $28.70
TAM at ATL -8.5 ATL $4.00 ATL $26.39 ATL $30.39
NYJ at DET 4 DET $3.00 DET
MIA at BAL -5 MIA $0.56 MIA $0.52 MIA
NEP at CLE 4.5 CLE $2.39 CLE
NYG at SEA 7 NYG $334.58 NYG $182.94 NYG $517.52
KAN at OAK -2.5 KAN $0.17 OAK $4.46 OAK
IND at PHI -3 IND $0.72 IND $0.36 IND
DAL at GNB -7.5 DAL $8.95 DAL $8.95
PIT at CIN 4.5 CIN $10.90 CIN $10.90

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CHICAGO BEARS
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BUFFALO BILLS
Computer’s Pick: Buffalo (+3)
Bet Amount: $4.84 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: As everyone expected, Chicago has fallen back to earth after a stellar start to their season.  But are they really plummeting fast enough to only be considered 3 point favorites over an 0-7 team in a game played on a neutral field?  Apparently so, as the betting action on this game is pretty evenly split at this point.  But I’m not ready to write off the Bears quite yet.  I’m expecting the bye has given them a chance to lick a few wounds and rewire their pass-protection schemes – enough to beat a bottom-dweller like the Bills.
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
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HOUSTON TEXANS
Computer’s Pick: Houston (+3)
Bet Amount: $7.23 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS:Everybody is sure that the Chargers have sloughed off their early season issues and are about to surge, as they seem to do just about every year recently.  And everybody is sure that Houston’s loss to the Colts last week is the start of a slide that will lead into mediocrity.  And games where everybody thinks they already know the outcome are the games where Vegas makes the most money.  Statistically this line isn’t a trap, but the prevailing psychology certainly is.  I like the Texans to surprise everyone this week.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
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CAROLINA PANTHERS
Computer’s Pick: New Orleans (-6.5)
Bet Amount: $1.66 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: This line seems like a trap to me.  Statistically, it isn’t (it’s actually a little higher than it ought to be) but considering how completely ineffective Carolina has been at all phases of the game, and considering New Orleans’ offensive potential (which has been held in check by a schedule including some tough opponents), I’d expect something higher.  Predictably, all the money is going towards the Saints.  Do I think it’s a trap?  Actually, no, I don’t.  Vegas has been cleaning house all season – this is one of the few charity games where they apparently feel like giving something back.  This is a great opportunity for the Saints to tune up their offensive engine as they lead up to a playoff run, and I think that’s exactly what will happen.
ARIZONA CARDINALS
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MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Computer’s Pick: Arizona (+9)
Bet Amount: $16.92 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: How can I ever trust the Cardinals again after last week’s heartbreak?  More importantly, how can I trust a team whose two quarterbacks combined for four such ugly interceptions?  Minnesota’s response to the whole Randy Moss debacle is going to be interesting, but considering how short of a time he spent on the team, I doubt that’s going to have a huge effect.  Instead, we’ll be seeing the same kinds of issues they had at the beginning of the season with their passing game – without a deep threat to help soften coverage on Percy Harvin, they’ll have a really hard time moving the ball upfield.  If Arizona can contain Adrian Peterson, they’ll have a good chance to cover this spread.  Since their defense will be able to concentrate on the run, they ought to be able to do just that.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
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ATLANTA FALCONS
Computer’s Pick: Atlanta (-8.5)
Bet Amount: $30.39 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: I like this Tampa team a lot.  I know Atlanta plays much, much better at home, but this is an important game with the division lead on the line – it’s hard to envision a Falcons blowout occurring here.  But that’s what the books are telling us to expect with this gigantic spread.  So that’s what I’ll be looking for.
NEW YORK JETS
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DETROIT LIONS
Computer’s Pick: Detroit (+4)
Bet Amount: $3.00 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: The Jets should bounce back from last week’s embarrassing shutout with a solid win against the Lions.  It’s good therapy.
MIAMI DOLPHINS
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BALTIMORE RAVENS
Computer’s Pick: Miami (+5)
Bet Amount: $1.08 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: I know, I know, but I’m still not convinced about the Ravens.  Of course, it’s hard to see Miami’s tentative offense being able to move the ball successfully against them.  The computer programs both agree that this spread is just a little bit lower than it should be, but not by much.  I really think this one is a toss-up – perhaps hinging on an otherwise meaningless field goal near the end of the game.  I’ll take Baltimore on the coin toss, but I’m glad there’s no money riding on this one.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
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CLEVELAND BROWNS
Computer’s Pick: Cleveland (+5)
Bet Amount: $2.11 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: This spread seems a lot lower than it ought to be, considering the fact that the league’s only 6-1 team (a record they’ve achieved with remarkably little fanfare) is facing a 2-5 squad of losers.  Amazingly, Gamblor thinks it’s about right.  And without Randy Moss, the Patriots don’t boast the same high-octane offense – or even the potential for a high-octane offense – that they used to.  But Colt McCoy is due for an end to his honeymoon (as is the case with most young quarterbacks) and I’m confident that the Patriots will handle the Browns with ease.
NEW YORK GIANTS
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SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
Computer’s Pick: NY Giants (-7)
Bet Amount: $517.52 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: This is the biggest bet of the year so far for the computer – more so for Gamblor because Son of Gamblor is a bit shy because the Giants are traveling so far for this game.  And the Giants already won big ($430) for me in Week 1.  Can they do it again?  My only worry here is how confident I am that they actually will.  Matt Hasselbeck has taken too much of a beating in this league (including 8 sacks against the Raiders last week), and five minutes facing the Giants’ murderous pass rush will see him either leaving the field on a stretcher or throwing the ball away in the nineteen milliseconds it takes for the pocket to collapse.  I know that the Seahawks are tough at home, but I think they’ll be lucky to simply survive this game with their cerebral cortexes intact.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
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OAKLAND RAIDERS
Computer’s Pick: Oakland (-3)
Bet Amount: $6.95 (Conflict)
COMMENTS: It’s hard to figure out whether Oakland’s first back-to-back victories in ages will inspire the team to keep playing at a high level, or whether they’ll decide they’re invincible (which they usually do after just ONE win) and completely phone in a laughable effort during their next test.  I know better than to trust them – especially considering their greatest weakness (run defense) is facing up against Kansas City’s greatest (and possibly only) strength (their running game).  I’d love to see Oakland win this game, but I don’t think they will – I expect they’ll lose by a dozen points or so.  I wish I were buying them a victory, but unfortunately the computer has decided to be a better fan than I am, so I can look forward to having my heart broken AND lose a little money.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
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PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Computer’s Pick: Indianapolis (+3)
Bet Amount: $1.08 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: Are you kidding?  Indianapolis is just starting to get hot.  They’ll cream the Eagles.
DALLAS COWBOYS
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GREEN BAY PACKERS
Computer’s Pick: Dallas (+8.5)
Bet Amount: $8.40 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: I wish this spread were a bit higher so I could be on Green Bay.  Instead, it’s pretty much where it ought to be.  I can’t imagine how a completely dysfunctional Dallas team is going to keep up with the Packers.  I just don’t think this is going to be anywhere near close.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS
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CINCINNATI BENGALS
Computer’s Pick: Cincinnati (+4.5)
Bet Amount: $10.90 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: This one actually ought to be a battle.  Although Cincinnati has a multitude of problems that play right into the hands of the Steelers, the Pittsburgh games tend to end in a very shady fashion that results in them failing to cover the spread.  So in general I have a policy of wanting to bet against the Steelers (especially as favorites) and I’m glad the computer agrees with me on this one.

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Week GAMBLOR SON OF GAMBLOR Profit
W L P Weighted Wins Weighted Picks Weighted Win % W L P Weighted Wins Weighted Picks Weighted Win %
1 9 4 3 1681 1876 89.6% 6 0 2 3692 3692 100.0% $647.02
2 10 5 1 918 1030 89.1% 5 3 486 491 99.0% $206.10
3 13 3 1203 1428 84.2% 5 4 1132 1988 56.9% $184.96
4 8 6 672 891 75.4% 3 4 1343 1832 73.3% $200.21
5 6 5 411 583 70.5% 9 3 974 1477 66.0% $372.58
6 4 7 1 432 559 77.3% 2 3 649 727 89.2% $121.28
7 8 6 666 2401 27.7% 3 4 1792 3924 45.7% -$291.65
8 7 5 507 1000 50.7% 6 2 1526 2876 53.1% $6.96
Total 65 41 5 6489 9768 66.4% 39 23 2 11594 17008 68.2% $1,447.46