Comments on: NFL Picks: Week 10 (updated x2)

By: NFL Picks: Week 15 | Popdose

NFL Picks: Week 15 | Popdose — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 12:31:26 +0000

[...] five weeks ago, back when Gamblor was still in the black for the year, I did a countdown of the five biggest upsets it had predicted so far. Since then, the computer has had a weighted win percentage of just 39.2% [...]

By: SteveC

SteveC — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 05:28:51 +0000

I agree that SD's receivers make Rivers look good. He makes a lot of really stupid plays, but when it counts, he somehow manages to look like the second coming of Joe Montana…

By: Zack

Zack — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 03:56:44 +0000

Oh, I forgot to mention, none of the middle opportunities I mentioned last week (San Diego +4, Tennessee +3, and a late one with Indianapolis at -8) panned out. As far as this week goes, I guess there might have been a potential for a middle at -2 when Dallas' spread opened up at 1.5, but that line moved to 3 so quickly that I never even saw it. There's one in the Chargers game at -2, as the spread that opened at -2.5 has now moved to -1.5.

By: Zack

Zack — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 03:50:09 +0000

I still think Marmalard is overrated as a result of his receivers' talent – without Gates and Jackson snaring anything that comes within ten feet of them, I think he'd be a far worse quarterback. But that's not why I'm picking against them – it has much more to do with the Eagles and their tendency to do the exact opposite of whatever you expect them to do.

Yeah, I'm not sure I should watch that Dallas game. I should just go surfing or something and come back when it's over. That way I won't have to suffer the agony of watching it if it goes bad.

By: SteveC

SteveC — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 02:46:15 +0000

Disregarding the Chargers right now is risky! They are playing very very well. You could see it in their swagger against the Giants. When they got the ball back with under 2 min to go in the game, I got up and started to get dinner ready because I knew they were going to win the game. When Rivers gets on a roll, he's one of the best QBs in the league. I think they'll take care of the Eagles pretty easily this week, with or without a running game…

Sad to say, I'm quite worried about the Broncos this week. Kyle Orton is an exact duplicate of Brian Griese…high completion rate, but noodle armed. Everyone knows that they can totally ignore anything beyond 20 yards downfield. I thought that maybe Josh McDaniels would be able to do enough to balance this, but clearly, he's not. Washington's got a decent secondary, so this looks mighty tough. I'll give the points this week and hope that Washington's offense doesn't catch fire this week…Somewhere out there, Mike Shannahan is probably laughing over his morning coffee right now…

And, kudos to you for your intestinal fortitude to put a fifth of your bankroll on the Cowboys. I think it's the right move, but that's one big bet…

By: SteveC

SteveC — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 00:28:51 +0000

I agree that SD's receivers make Rivers look good. He makes a lot of really stupid plays, but when it counts, he somehow manages to look like the second coming of Joe Montana…

By: Zack

Zack — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 22:56:44 +0000

By: Zack

Zack — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 22:50:09 +0000

Yeah, I'm not sure I should watch that Dallas game. I should just go surfing or something and come back when it's over. That way I won't have to suffer the agony of watching it if it goes bad.

By: SteveC

SteveC — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 21:46:15 +0000

And, kudos to you for your intestinal fortitude to put a fifth of your bankroll on the Cowboys. I think it's the right move, but that's one big bet…

By: I call him GAMBLOR! (Part 3) | Popdose

I call him GAMBLOR! (Part 3) | Popdose — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 16:59:04 +0000

[...] The following graph shows Gamblor’s performance over the entire time it’s been active. I didn’t finalize the model and start betting until about halfway through the season in 2008, which is actually quite fortunate because it would have suffered a huge setback in Week 3 if I had. There was a cripping loss on a 95% flip bet that would have seriously shaken my faith in the program – but fortunately I picked a very good time to get started. In the graph below, the blue line represents the hedge bets, and the red line represents the flip bets, each based on a starting bankroll of $500. The columns represent the overall performance once you combine the two. It doesn’t seem like all that much has happened so far in 2009 – the overall growth of my bankroll has been just 10% since the start of this season – but that all has the potential to change this week… [...]