Comments on: NFL Picks: Week 3 (updated)

By: mattk1

mattk1 — Sun, 27 Sep 2009 22:19:58 +0000

I like the way your computer thinks so putting a couple dollars on money line dogs… Car, Oak, San Fran, Det, TBay, Jax, Ten, Indy and KC I'll see if it pays off.

By: mattk1

mattk1 — Sun, 27 Sep 2009 18:19:58 +0000

I like the way your computer thinks so putting a couple dollars on money line dogs… Car, Oak, San Fran, Det, TBay, Jax, Ten, Indy and KC I'll see if it pays off.

By: mattk1

mattk1 — Sun, 27 Sep 2009 17:19:58 +0000

I like the way your computer thinks so putting a couple dollars on money line dogs… Car, Oak, San Fran, Det, TBay, Jax, Ten, Indy and KC I'll see if it pays off.

By: Zack

Zack — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 18:23:49 +0000

It's supposed to be rainy and windy in Buffalo on Sunday, so that might slow Drew Brees down a little bit. Hope so.

By: Rose

Rose — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 18:02:18 +0000

Never brush a cat's fur the wrong way….

By: Zack

Zack — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 17:25:53 +0000

Sorry, Steve – I've been immersed in it for long enough that I've probably lost perspective. I'll try to figure out a way for it to make more sense. Hedge bets only go on the underdog. Flip bets can go either way – in the case of the Jacksonville game, it's a flip bet in favor of the underdog and both systems actually agree. The two systems are described here and http://popdose.com/i-call-him-gamblor-part-2/'here. I may expand the summary sheet to show how many picks of each confidence level the computer is delivering.

As far as Jacksonville/Houston goes, the fact that some models see it as less than 55% and one was all the way up to 90% in one of the others really just indicates that there's a lot of volatility in one of the team's statistics (my guess would be Houston).

By: SteveC

SteveC — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 16:51:48 +0000

Still trying to figure out your annotations here.

On the Jacksonville/Houston game, you've got it marked "Hedge / Flip - 90%", so your Hedge part says the underdog (Jax) should win, but the Flip part says Houston should win? So what's the significance of the 90%? Does that mean it's extremely confident that Houston will cover? I wouldn't think so because of the large $$ it's putting on Jax.

The game I'm keying on this week is the Green Bay/St Louis game. I totally agree with your assessment that St Louis is a bad bad bad team.

Also, the Broncos will get their first test of the year. Historically, Oakland's been able to run the ball very well against them, so we'll see if they can shut them down with their new 3-4 scheme. Here's to 3-0!!!!!