NFL Picks: Wild Card Weekend

The game we saw last week really doesn’t have all that much to do with game we’ll see this week.  The last time the Bengals made the playoffs was in 2005, and the last time before that was in 1990.  That was also the last time they hosted a playoff game, which they won (against the Houston Oilers).  Their fans will not let this opportunity to affect the game pass them by.

All of the relentless talk about Mark Sanchez’s “poise” pretty much fell off after he threw four interceptions while losing to the New England Patriots in an important game during Week 11.  On the road.  Sanchez hasn’t had much success away from Giants Stadium – in his three toughest away games (New England, Miami, and New Orleans) he’s thrown just two touchdowns to seven interceptions.  And this will be his toughest road game yet.

Many of the weaknesses that the Bengals showed against the Jets will have been addressed.  They were wise not to use a vanilla game plan in the final game of the season.  Needing the win, the Jets showed all their cards.  The Bengals will have a more interesting – and more effective – game plan of their own this week.  Injured defensive linemen Domata Peko and Robert Geathers will be back, Cedric Benson will play, and Chad Ochocinco will be 100% again.  It’s not hard to imagine this being a very tough game (that even has the potential to go to overtime), but in the end the Bengals will end up on top.

I think it might end up being a good thing for them.  The Eagles had put together a six game winning streak, but during those games the toughest opponent they faced was the Atlanta Falcons.  The loss to the Cowboys was an important wake-up call for them.

Dallas has beaten Philadelphia in both games they played this year, taking the earlier contest at Cowboy Stadium by a score of 20-16.  They seem to have conquered their December curse, but there’s still plenty of bad mojo left regarding their record in the playoffs in recent history.  There are times when teams try too hard, and I think they have the potential to fall into this trap.  Philadelphia can bait them with a few trick plays and double moves that exploit their hunger – look for DeSean Jackson to pull in at least one long touchdown before this game is over.

Like the earlier game, I see this one as being a tight contest.  There will be a lot of lead changes, and it should be an exciting game to watch.  But I think the spread has drifted just a little bit too high, and will factor in in Philadelphia’s favor.

down inside New England’s ten yard line with under a minute left.  Joe Flacco learned then that he’s capable of beating the Patriots – and he won’t have forgotten it.  The Patriots certainly have plenty of playoff experience – but so do the Ravens.  And it’s more recent experience – they made it to teh conference championship last year, while the Patriots were stuck at home moaning about the inequities of the playoff structure.

New England’s secondary is weak.  Against the three most prolific passing teams they’ve faced (Indianapolis, New Orleans, and Houston), they’ve given up an average of 35.7 points per game and lost all three contests.  While Baltimore isn’t capable of those kinds of numbers, John Harbaugh is smart enough to recognize the Patriots’ weakness in this area and make the most of it.  With Ray Rice and Willis McGahee helping to force the defense to focus on stopping the running game, the Ravens will have a chance to throw the ball downfield often.  And Flacco will be capable of executing the game plan solidly.

The Patriots offense, on the other hand, is leaking oil in a major way.  Randy Moss seems to wither at the slightest sign of adversity, and with Welker gone the Ravens will be able to smother him with at least two defensive backs on every single play.  Edelman has the physical tools to fill in for him, but doesn’t have the same rapport with Tom Brady that made Welker so dangerous as an outlet for Brady on blitzes and in other tight spots.  It’s not hard to see Baltimore winning this game outright, and I hope they do.

thus far this season because they haven’t set the lines properly, and I finally figured out why Gamblor always thinks the spreads in Green Bay games are always off.  It’s all about turnovers.

Gamblor factors in the turnover ratio pretty heavily – because it’s one of the most important indicators of how strong a team actually is.  This year, the Packers finished with a ratio of +22.  They only turned the ball over 15 times (7 interceptions and 8 fumbles) while taking it away 37 times.  Nobody else in the league is anywhere close to that – and even the worst teams in the NFL (Detroit) is only at -16.  It’s the highest ratio the NFC has seen in the last ten years or so.

The Packers are red-hot right now.  Their offense seems unstoppable, and their defense is completely shutting everyone else down.  They’ve won seven of their last eight, and haven’t lost against the spread during that time, and they just trounced Arizona in what they’re hoping was a preview of Sunday’s game.  This seems to be the one game where Vegas is taking a bit of a chance but they’re already starting to panic.  The line, which opened at -2.5, has already slipped all the way to -1.  And at the moment, 88% of the money is on the underdog Packers.  I’m not sure they meant to, but the books are relying pretty heavily on an Arizona win.

In the end, I simply can’t be objective about this one.  I hate the goddamed Packers because they’ve cost me so much money this season – $940 in total.  I hope the Cardinals stomp them into a fine yellow and green paste.