Oscar Nominations: Who Surprised You? Who Got Screwed?

Good for Michael Shannon for “Revolutionary Road.” I haven't seen the movie, but I've seen him in a bar in Chicago, so I'm already a winner!

The producer nominees for Best Picture for “The Reader” are “to be announced” or “determined” or whatever, but I can't imagine that two of the three nominees won't be Sydney Pollack and Anthony Minghella, since both passed away before the movie made it to theaters. If they do end up being two of the “determined” producers, that'll be three posthumous nominations in the big categories, right alongside Heath Ledger's.

Is Robert Downey Jr.'s Oscar clip going to be the “full retard” speech from “Tropic Thunder”? I hope so, though I didn't find his performance as hilarious as other people did. And not because of the blackface aspect — I just thought it ran out of steam, like the rest of the movie, after a while.

See, I thought “Tropic Thunder” was a model of restraint, at least compared with recent overlong comedies like “Wedding Crashers.” Many films I see these days could stand to have a good half hour taken out, but even though “Thunder” wasn't as funny as it could have been, I still thought it got in and out before it ran out of gas.

I'm not too pleased with this list. But then again, it is the Oscars.

First off, Button is not very deserving of the major awards. Fincher did a fine job directing, and the technical side is impressive. However, as a lead performance, Pitt doesn't do anything all that special. He was more memorable in “Burn After Reading,” though I don't care much for that film either. The adapted script nomination is a joke, as Roth essentially did a re-write on his Gump script.

I also think Clint Eastwood should have received a nomination for Best Actor. He could take Pitt's spot. It's a much more interesting performance, and doesn't rely on visual effects.

I like “Slumdog Millionaire” a lot. This year, I actually agree with the “little film that could” mantra, whereas in recent years I didn't (see “Little Miss Sunshine” and “Juno”).

And, I think “The Dark Knight” is a really good film. It is very deserving of the accolades it received, and actually demands repeat viewing. That is one of my criteria for a great movie. The doubters be damned, it should have gotten some of the major nominations.

Random thoughts:

BEST PICTURE

“The Reader”? A triumph for Harvey Weinstein's Academy Awards
strong-arming, I'd say. “Keep my fucking company alive!” I can hear
him shouting at any Oscar voter within earshot, as he threatens to
make his fire burn half of Hollywood, Saddam Hussein-style. I wouldn't
rule out a sentiment factor, either: well-respected, Oscar-laureled co-
producers Sydney Pollack and Anthony Minghella died last year. Or, you
know, it could be a good movie; I haven't seen it, nor “Frost/
Nixon.” (Both of which have had lackluster releases to date.)

(A friend writes: “I guess the Holocaust (mixed with a little teenager/
older woman soft porn) gets them every time. Proceed at your own
peril.”

Blanked: “Doubt,” “The Dark Knight,” “Gran Torino” (sort-of
fascinating, kind-of terrible), “Revolutionary Road,” other Nazi
movies.

Forecast: It's “Slumdog”'s to lose.

BEST ACTRESS

Nice to see Leo slip in here. Winslet was dropped off along
“Revolutionary Road” and ascended here. She has a lot of love built up
over the years and this may be a sign that the Academy doesn't want to
fob her off, so to speak, with Supporting Actress. I'm just not
sensing a lot of heat anywhere else; maybe Streep to win? Sally
Hawkins not so happy-go-lucky this morning, but you can only carry the
indie goddess of the year thing so far.

BEST ACTOR

Nice to see Jenkins slip in here, etc. I'd like to see Rourke get
it, but I think this one bears the presidential seal. Pitt is a
curious case, though I did like the movie. “Best Digitized Actor”?
Snubbed Eastwood (“Get off my awards show!”) has four Oscars and a
Thalberg, and doesn't want any tears on his behalf. Langella's win would make him the 10th actor to win a Tony and a Emmy for the same part.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

The “Doubt”-ers cancel each other out.

Forecast: Cruz, this year's winner of the Woody Allen Supporting
Actress Award (Dianne Wiest, Mira Sorvino) and the beneficiary of the
Winslet bump, gets it.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

A white man playing a black man is nominated. No black men are
nominated. Discuss.
Forecast: Ledger. Dark Knght fans will turn off their TVs immediately
after the teary we-lost-a-unique-actor-and-great-human-being speech
given by the designated Oscar picker-upper.

BEST DIRECTOR

DGA nominee Christopher Nolan plans a terrible vengeance on Oscar
upstart Stephen Daldry as Nazis trump Batman.

Forecast: The winner will be another Brit, Boyle.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

The otherwise ignored “Happy-Go-Lucky” and “In Bruges” get a
chance to shine, though “In Bruges,” while peppier than the run of
screenplays, is so much weaker than McDonagh's plays.

Forecast: The vitamin-enriched “Milk” is probably the film's best shot
at Oscar gold.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The playwrights did the hard work some time ago. How easy it must
be to dust off the stage script, add a few notations (“Close-up:
Nixon”) and be done with it.

Forecast: “Slumdog.” A lot of it is in a foreign language. Now that's
impressive!

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

Usually I've seen one or two of these by now. Not this year. “The
Class,” from the excellent Laurent Cantet (“Time Out”), has pedigree, but
“Waltz with Bashir” the blue-ribbon, hot-button subject (Israel, the
1982 Lebanon War)–and it's animated.

BEST ANIMATED FILM

“Wall-E” runs out of batteries toward the end, but just-good Pixar
is still better than most animated fare. I sense more love in some
quarters for “Kung Fu Panda,” but it doesn't have the “message” to
win.

BEST ART DIRECTION

The usual run of mostly period pieces. I tend to pick the one set
in the oldest historical period, and that would be “The Duchess.” I
got no sense of art direction on “Dark Knight” at all, which I don't
mean as a diss–it's “Chicago”, Hong Kong, a warehouse, a hospital,
etc., true to the anti-comic book aesthetic of the piece, but not much
to savor for voters.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

In this case, no one will argue over the groundbreaking on-the-fly
HD shooting of Slumdog. Benjamin Button is pretty impressive, too,
with all that digital work to properly light and accommodate.
Changeling, a non-ASC nominee, somehow slipped in there.

BEST FILM EDITING

The cuts-riddled Dark Knight action scenes gave me a headache,
though the nomination confirms that there was an editor.

Forecast: Slumdog is flash, though I prefer the more seamless,
invisible style of Milk or Benjamin Button.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

See Art Direction. Revolutionary Road does have a beautiful sense
of its period.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

A gratifying nod to Werner Herzog, possibly the year's best
nomination. Trouble the Water has the subject (Katrina) but Man on
Wire, my personal pick, should successfully negotiate the tightrope.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

A troubled category has another crap year. When “Enchanted” got a
ridiculous three nominations last year the rules were amended to two-
per-customer only…which doesn't mean you automatically go to two as
soon as the new policy is instituted. “Down to Earth” is pretty meh as
the third, and inexplicably only other, choice: Where's the Boss? Or,
Eastwood aside, “Gran Torino,” a nice Jamie Cullum tune? (Then again,
Eastwood's rain-gurgling-down-rusty-drainpipe voice is a lot to put
aside.)

Forecast: The Slumdog Bollywood number. “Jai Ho,” right?

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

I really like Benjamin Button, and Desplat's scores in general
(Casanova and The Painted Veil are favorites). The much-nominated
Newman will probably be the bridesmaid yet again as Slumdog fever
sweeps; then again, he was honored for the wrong movie, not that his
score for Wall-E is lacking. (His score for Revolutionary Road, which
springs organically from the characters and situations, is incredibly
rich, making a film I think perceived as arid and emotionally
constipated less so.)

BEST MAKEUP
“Benjamin Button's” first award.

BEST SOUND EDITING

Four-time Oscar winner Burtt (of the Star Wars films) is
formidable competition for the Slumdog express, plus he did the lead
vocals. I like the name “Wylie Statesman.” (“Wanted” just seemed LOUD to
me.)

BEST SOUND MIXING

Burtt, Slumdog–I'm not sure where I stand on this. This is where
I lose points in my annual Oscar pool.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

On the Button. Its second win (I just don't see it happening
anywhere else.)

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM

See Sound Mixing. Friends attend the screenings, then tell me what to
think. I'm easily led. (Some may turn up online, too, and
Entertainment Weekly has done helpful wrap-ups in the past.)

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM

See Live Action Short Film.

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT FILM
“The Conscience of Nhem En”: Cambodia 30 years after the Khmer Rouge
“The Final Inch” : Beating back polio
“Smile Pinki”: Girl Slumdog with cleft lip
“The Witness – From the Balcony of Room 306″ : MLK assassination

BC: The “Slumdog” effect may help Pinki, but I think the Obama factor
will let “Room 306″ overcome.

Nah. It's just an on-the-ropes Harvey Weinstein bear-hugging/strong-arming the industry with his one prestige picture, the one he flogged into an end-of-the-year release. His shamelessness at huckstering votes is admirable and appalling in equal measure; he could be a Chicago politician. I'm not sure how much it'll help “The Reader,” which is barely hanging on here in NY, but it's getting a renewed release next week. (So, I think, is the similarly viewer-challenged “Frost/Nixon.”)

Of course, I really should see “The Reader” before pontificating further…

“Cold Mountain” was another bridge he somehow managed to sell.

I feel somehow obliged to see it. Like with “North Country”–remember that one, that managed to snag acting noms? And not even a Weinstein picture.

First of all this is all set up. Clint Eastwood blows them all out of water for Best Actor and Best Picture if they put his movie in. And then they give it to the bleeding heart liberal Penn over Mickey Rourke, and trying to beef up Bollywood…give me a break! That's as bad as when Halley Berry won an Oscar and Kim Basinger….how can the Academy know nothing about movies and actors…go figure.

First of all this is all set up. Clint Eastwood blows them all out of water for Best Actor and Best Picture if they put his movie in. And then they give it to the bleeding heart liberal Penn over Mickey Rourke, and trying to beef up Bollywood…give me a break! That's as bad as when Halley Berry won an Oscar and Kim Basinger….how can the Academy know nothing about movies and actors…go figure.

The only reason Ann Hathaway is getting any roles or nominatios is because she is servicing that fat, revolting pig Weinstein. She is unattractive and untalented. Give me a break!!!!

The only reason Ann Hathaway is getting any roles or nominatios is because she is servicing that fat, revolting pig Weinstein. She is unattractive and untalented. Give me a break!!!!