Rebirth of Gamblor: Week 11 NFL Picks

Written by Football, Sports

Last week was as close to perfect as I’ve ever seen the computer get. It came at a great time, too, because it had a lot of money on the line, with huge bets on the Colts and Bills both paying off and shooting the computer into the black again for the season.  Of course, that’s all on the line (and more) this week, so we’ll see what happens.  Gamblor hit 97.8% of its picks last week, with an overall record of 10-3, and Son of Gamblor was right on 3038 of its 3039 simulations, which rounds up to 100.0%.  That’s good stuff.  Coincidentally, both of the computer’s best performances this year have come after weeks when I didn’t have time to write up my thoughts on the games.  But I’m going to tempt fate and keep sharing my (typically wrong) opinions.

This week’s Game of Thrones representative is the Indianapolis Colts as House Manderly.  As explained in A Wiki of Ice and Fire, “A thousand years before the conquest the Manderlys lived at the banks of the mighty river Mander, but they were driven away…”  In the case of the Colts, we’ll interpret that to mean that they were driven away on a snowy night in Mayflower moving trucks.  They became the lords of White Harbor, which corresponds nicely to the white uniforms typically sported by the Colts.  And of course, given the reputation of residents of Indiana for having great…carriage, the noble Wyman Manderly seems to be a good representative.

This week, Gamblor goes huge on the Cowboys.  Again.

Away Home Spread Gamblor’s Pick Bet Amount Son of Gamblor’s Pick Bet Amount Overall Pick Overall Bet
MIA at BUF -2 MIA $4.14 BUF $0.03 MIA
PHI at WAS -3.5 PHI $26.98 PHI $25.93 PHI $52.91
GNB at DET 3.5 DET $11.30 DET $11.30
ARI at ATL -9.5 ARI $4.38 ARI
TAM at CAR 1.5 CAR $4.22 CAR $9.22 CAR $13.43
CLE at DAL -8 DAL $313.20 DAL $354.70 DAL $667.90
NYJ at STL -3.5 NYJ $19.89 NYJ $19.89
JAC at HOU -15 JAC $2.86 HOU $2.43 JAC
CIN at KAN 3.5 KAN $31.83 KAN $72.34 KAN $104.17
NOS at OAK 4.5 OAK $16.63 OAK $16.63
IND at NEP -9 IND $98.59 IND $81.10 IND $179.69
SND at DEN -7.5 SND $3.58 DEN $6.95 DEN
BAL at PIT 3.5 PIT BAL $22.08 BAL $22.08
CHI at SNF -4 SNF $82.83 SNF $153.38 SNF $236.22

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MIAMI DOLPHINS
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BUFFALO BILLS
Computer’s Pick: Miami (+2)
Bet Amount: $4.10 (Conflict)
COMMENTS: It’s always hard to tell when Buffalo is going to put together a good game, but Miami looked absolutely dreadful last week.  I like Buffalo to win and cover at home here.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
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WASHINGTON REDSKINS
Computer’s Pick: Philadelphia (+3.5)
Bet Amount: $52.91 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: It was tough to decide between Philadelphia and Washington as the NFL’s representative of House Martell.  This game is a typical tough NFC East matchup, but with the Eagles playing for Andy Reid’s job, I think you’ll see them pull it off.  They always seem to play well in these situations.
GREEN BAY PACKERS
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DETROIT LIONS
Computer’s Pick: Detroit (+3.5)
Bet Amount: $11.30 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: I don’t see Detroit stopping Green Bay here, regardless of the Packers’ offensive line issues.  All it will take is a few mistakes for Detroit to fall behind in a shootout, and they haven’t matured this season the way I thought they would.
ARIZONA CARDINALS
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ATLANTA FALCONS
Computer’s Pick: Arizona (+9.5)
Bet Amount: $4.38 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: I’m going to stick to my guns and continue to insist that Arizona is better than people are giving them credit for, not to mention that Atlanta is going to be deflated after last week’s loss.  I think the Cardinals will cover here.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
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CAROLINA PANTHERS
Computer’s Pick: Carolina (+1.5)
Bet Amount: $13.43 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: Look out, Carolina.  Tampa Bay is on a roll and it won’t stop here.
CLEVELAND BROWNS
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DALLAS COWBOYS
Computer’s Pick: Dallas (-8)
Bet Amount: $667.90 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: The computer thinks it’s crazy that Dallas is favored by this much, and given how many close games Cleveland has managed, it’s kind of a toss-up.  I might as well give my endorsement to Gamblor, though, and hope that Dallas finally gets its shit together.
NEW YORK JETS
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SAINT LOUIS RAMS
Computer’s Pick: New York Jets (+3.5)
Bet Amount: $19.89 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: This is Sanchez’s last stand – his Alamo, if you will.  And it will end the same way.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
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HOUSTON TEXANS
Computer’s Pick: Jacksonville (+15)
Bet Amount: $0.44 (Conflict)
COMMENTS: Jacksonville is truly terrible, but it’s never a good idea to bet against a spread this big.  I see Houston taking its foot off the gas late in the game and Jacksonville managing a backdoor cover.
CINCINNATI BENGALS
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KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Computer’s Pick: Kansas City (+3.5)
Bet Amount: $104.17 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: After yet another loss last week, is Kansas City even going to bother showing up for this game?  I doubt it, and Cincinnati generally thrives against weak opponents.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
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OAKLAND RAIDERS
Computer’s Pick: Oakland (+4.5)
Bet Amount: $16.63 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: This is one of those games where everyone expects a shootout…and it ends up being a shootout.  There’s no way the Raiders can keep up with the Saints, though; expect a repeat of their game last week against the Ravens, except they’ll score 10 more points this time and only lose by 25.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
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NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Computer’s Pick: Indianapolis (+9)
Bet Amount: $179.69 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: Will Andrew Luck channel the spirit of Peyton Manning and keep this one close?  I think he actually will.  He’ll demonstrate one of the qualities that’s needed in a great quarterback – the capacity to play great in big games.  I don’t think he’ll win – the Patriots are too strong – but Luck will use some of that good old Manderly treachery to keep things close.
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
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DENVER BRONCOS
Computer’s Pick: Denver (-7.5)
Bet Amount: $3.37 (Conflict)
COMMENTS: For some reason I really don’t like Denver in this game.  Maybe because it’s a divisional matchup, and it’s not like the Chargers are unfamiliar with Manning.  I think San Diego will cover.
BALTIMORE RAVENS
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PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Computer’s Pick: Baltimore (-3.5)
Bet Amount: $22.08 (Son of Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: Without Roethlisberger, the Steelers are doomed in this game.  Their defense isn’t what it used to be, Baltimore offense is a lot sharper, and Pittsburgh won’t be able to keep up with the Lef-Handed Whopper in charge.
CHICAGO BEARS
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SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
Computer’s Pick: San Francisco (-4)
Bet Amount: $236.22 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: This ought to be a great game, but I think the 49ers are going to steamroll the Bears.

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Week GAMBLOR SON OF GAMBLOR Profit
W L P Weighted Wins Weighted Picks Weighted Win % W L P Weighted Wins Weighted Picks Weighted Win %
1 7 9 717 1023 70.2% 6 5 2415 3023 79.9% $255.02
2 7 6 330 496 72.5% 4 4 269 428 62.7% $58.39
3 9 5 1 3065 4160 73.7% 3 6 1 4140 7459 55.5% $623.53
4 9 4 1 260 359 72.5% 4 5 1 1031 1646 62.6% $98.79
5 6 6 117 1920 6.1% 1 4 24 3816 0.6% -$1070.94
6 9 3 934 1028 90.9% 6 1 1286 1314 97.9% $420.23
7 3 9 1 120 324 37.2% 4 1 373 962 38.8% -$70.48
8 6 6 117 1653 7.1% 3 7 92 3503 2.6% -$951.93
9 5 8 399 1004 39.8% 2 4 778 1722 45.2% -$99.02
10 10 3 2046 2092 97.8% 9 1 3038 3039 100.0% $1057.28
Total 71 59 3 8105 14057 57.7% 42 38 2 13445 26911 50.0% $320.87