Rebirth of Gamblor: Week 4 NFL Picks

Written by Football, Sports

Last week was a fantastic, if not quite perfect week for the computer.  It nailed its big bet on Buffalo, winning over $1300 in a single swoop.  Unfortunately, it gave a lot of that back when it lost bets with Denver and Washington, and pushed with its bet on the Jets.  Overall, Gamblor was 9-5-1 with a weighted win percentage of 73.7%, and Son of Gamblor was not nearly as strong, going 3-6-1 for 55.5%.  The total take for the week was $623, which brings the computer’s profit this season up to $937.  I have to blow my own horn a little bit here too – I called the Minnesota game correctly, and accurately forecast a push on the Jets-Miami game.  My other calls…not too great.  But that’s why I let the computer do the heavy lifting.

This week’s Game of Thrones comparison is the Oakland Raiders as the Brave Companions, aka The Bloody Mummers.  As described in A Wiki of Ice and Fire, the Bloody Mummers are “are a sellsword company of considerably ill repute. It comprises criminals and outcasts from many nations.”  There’s really no better way to describe the Raiders of old, who gained a reputation under Al Davis of being willing to take in just about anyone with football skills, regardless of how checkered a past they might have.  And similar to the Brave Companions, for years the Raiders operated without a fixed home, transferring between Oakland and Los Angeles and threatening numerous other moves.

This week, the computer is loading up big (but not nearly as big as last week, fortunately) on a pair of terrible teams – the St. Louis Rams and the Philadelphia Eagles.  Jeff Lebowski said it best: Fuckin’ Eagles, man.  I hate the fuckin’ Eagles.

Away Home Spread Gamblor’s Pick Bet Amount Son of Gamblor’s Pick Bet Amount Overall Pick Overall Bet
CLE at BAL -13 CLE $1.71 CLE
NEP at BUF 4 BUF $1.48 BUF $3.62 BUF $5.10
MIN at DET -5 MIN $0.15 MIN
CAR at ATL -7.5 CAR $2.67 CAR $17.87 CAR $20.54
SNF at NYJ 4 NYJ $7.50 NYJ $47.68 NYJ $55.18
SND at KAN 0 SND $2.00 KAN $6.36 KAN
TEN at HOU -12.5 TEN $13.21 TEN $13.21
SEA at STL 2.5 STL $8.91 STL $98.98 STL $107.88
MIA at ARI -6 MIA $0.52 ARI $2.16 ARI
OAK at DEN -6.5 DEN DEN $7.72 DEN $7.72
CIN at JAC 2.5 CIN $36.81 CIN $28.42 CIN $65.24
NOS at GNB -7.5 NOS $4.30 NOS
WAS at TAM -3 TAM $7.12 TAM $31.47 TAM $38.59
NYG at PHI -2 PHI $139.23 PHI $146.92 PHI $286.15
CHI at DAL -4 CHI $20.04 CHI $20.04

flashfiller

CLEVELAND BROWNS
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BALTIMORE RAVENS
Computer’s Pick: Cleveland (+13)
Bet Amount: $1.71 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: Baltimore is going to have to dig deep to summon the energy or enthusiasm to put forth much of an effort against this dreadful Cleveland team.  Fortunately for them, Cleveland is traveling on a short week and will be similarly flat.  I think Baltimore’s newfound offensive capabilities will overwhelm the Browns, the Ravens defense will score a pair of defensive touchdowns, and this game will be nowhere near close.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
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BUFFALO BILLS
Computer’s Pick: Buffalo (+4)
Bet Amount: $5.10 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: Normally, I’d love Buffalo here, but given how they seem to need a new running back every week, I have a hard time imagining how they’ll be able to generate much offense against an improved Patriots defense.  And the Patriots are due for an offensive explosion.  I think it finally happens here.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS
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DETROIT LIONS
Computer’s Pick: Minnesota (+5)
Bet Amount: $0.15 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: Where did Minnesota come from all of a sudden?  They looked terrific in taking down the 49ers last week, playing fiercely on both sides of the ball.  I think it’s doubtful that they’ll be able to sustain it, but they should be able to at least keep up with an underachieving Detroit squad that may be missing their starting quarterback.
CAROLINA PANTHERS
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ATLANTA FALCONS
Computer’s Pick: Carolina (+7.5)
Bet Amount: $20.54 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: Carolina got blown out at home by the Giants, and they’re expected to stay within a touchdown of a better team on the road?  I don’t think so.  This one’s over by halftime.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
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NEW YORK JETS
Computer’s Pick: New York Jets (+4)
Bet Amount: $55.18 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: It’s a long trip for the 49ers, and it’s their second week in a row on the road.  Without Revis, the Jets will be much weaker defensively, but I don’t believe that they won’t be able to at least keep up with the 49ers for most of the game.  I think the Jets can cover here.
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
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KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Computer’s Pick: Kansas City (0)
Bet Amount: $4.36 (Conflict)
COMMENTS: San Diego looked great its first two weeks, playing against inferior competition, and terrible last week, playing against a quality team.  Kansas City is not a quality team.  I think the Chargers will win here.
TENNESSEE TITANS
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HOUSTON TEXANS
Computer’s Pick: Tennessee (+12.5)
Bet Amount: $13.21 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: Are the Texans really as good as they look?  I’m having a hard time saying no.  While Tennessee did manage to put up 44 points against the Lions last week, they did so courtesy of a few special teams touchdowns and a few other wacky plays.  Not to mention that they gave up 41.  They’ll come back to earth against Houston, who should be able to close this one out early, the same way they’ve been doing it all year thus far.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
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SAINT LOUIS RAMS
Computer’s Pick: St. Louis (+2.5)
Bet Amount: $107.88 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: I predict that the Seahawks players are going to come into this game on a mission to prove to the world that their win in Green Bay wasn’t just a gift from the officials.  It was, but their defense has to be feeling rather disrepected, and their offense is certainly going to have something to prove.  I absolutely hate the computer’s pick here; there’s only one pick I hate more this week.
MIAMI DOLPHINS
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ARIZONA CARDINALS
Computer’s Pick: Arizona (-6)
Bet Amount: $1.64 (Conflict)
COMMENTS: Arizona has had three very solid victories this season, including a stunner on the road against New England, and they’re STILL not getting any respect playing at home against a 1-2 team with a hobbled star player and no other weapons.  I guess the books don’t think anyone believes in them, though at this moment the majority of money is coming in on the Cardinals.  I like them to continue their run here – though if the line were 7 I’d think twice about betting on them.
OAKLAND RAIDERS
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DENVER BRONCOS
Computer’s Pick: Denver (-6.5)
Bet Amount: $7.72 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: Manning hasn’t had too much trouble against the Raiders, having beaten them both times he’s played against them recently.  The Raiders are suffering from a rash of injuries in their secondary, so unfortunately for them it won’t take long for Manning to diagnose their simplified coverages and dissect the secondary.  I think another embarrassment is on tap for the Raiders.
CINCINNATI BENGALS
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JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
Computer’s Pick: Cincinnati (-2.5)
Bet Amount: $65.24 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: The computer is surprisingly interested in this game, and I think I like its pick – the Bengals seem to perform pretty well against bad teams, and Jacksonville fits the bill.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
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GREEN BAY PACKERS
Computer’s Pick: New Orleans (+7.5)
Bet Amount: $4.30 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: Can Brees keep up with Rodgers?  I doubt it.  But 7.5 points is too much.  I think the Saints are able to cover here, especially playing out of desperation to avoid going 0-4.
WASHINGTON REDSKINS
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TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
Computer’s Pick: Tampa Bay (-3)
Bet Amount: $38.59 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: I’m not sure I understand how Tampa Bay is favored in this game – especially by so much – but the computer agrees that this line is too big.  It thinks the books are up to something here, so I’ll trust its judgment and stick with Tampa.
NEW YORK GIANTS
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PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Computer’s Pick: Philadelphia (-2)
Bet Amount: $286.15 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: Ugh.  Yet another awful, awful spread against the massively overrated Eagles.  The public’s not buying into these absurd lines any more, so why is Vegas still pegging the Eagles as favorites?  As always, the computer thinks it’s because they’re trying to trick everyone.  Of course, that didn’t help Gamblor much as it dropped hundreds of dollars chasing this theory, but maybe this time Vegas’ Lucy will finally let Gamblor’s Charlie Brown kick the football.
CHICAGO BEARS
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DALLAS COWBOYS
Computer’s Pick: Chicago (+4)
Bet Amount: $20.04 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: I’m not sure what Dallas has shown to justify this spread – they can’t protect Romo, and their defense is pretty unremarkable.  It’s nice to get the points here; take them and don’t look back.