Rebirth of Gamblor: Week 7 NFL Picks

Written by Football, Sports

After having its worst week of the season two weeks ago, Gamblor fought back admirably and had, statistically, its best week of the season last week.  Driven primarily by Denver’s incredible comeback (or Philip Rivers’ incredible meltdown, depending on how you want to look at it), the computer managed a total proft of $420.  Both models performed brilliantly, with Gamblor making the right call in 9 of the 12 games it picked and hitting a weighted win percentage of 90.9%, and Son of Gamblor doing even better with a 6-1 record and a weighted win percentage of 97.9%.  The computer is spreading its money around a little bit more this week.

This weeks Game of Thrones/NFL crossover is the Baltimore Ravens and House Greyjoy.  As those of us who watched The Wire learned, the ports of Baltimore are known much more for their corruption and thievery than as a bustling center of commerce, and the same holds true for the Iron Islands of Pyke – there is no safe harbor to be found in the islands, and House Greyjoy has been desperate to return to raiding ever since their rebellion was put down by Robert Baratheon.  Both are truly depressing places, and stabbing is the most common fate that awaits visitors.  Joe Flacco provides a nice parallel to Theon Greyjoy; both have insisted upon their own claims to greatness, but have thus far failed to deliver.

This week, the computer is high on both the Jets and the Raiders.  I have a bad feeling its going to give back most of what it managed to win last week.

 

Away Home Spread Gamblor’s Pick Bet Amount Son of Gamblor’s Pick Bet Amount Overall Pick Overall Bet
SEA at SNF -7 SEA $9.25 SEA $9.25
TEN at BUF -3 TEN $1.68 TEN $2.22 TEN
ARI at MIN -6 ARI $5.05 ARI $5.05
CLE at IND -3 CLE $3.06 IND $6.67 IND
BAL at HOU -6.5 BAL $9.94 BAL $9.94
GNB at STL 5 STL $7.72 STL $7.72
DAL at CAR 2 CAR $0.08 DAL $0.86 DAL
WAS at NYG -6.5 WAS $7.57 WAS $7.57
NOS at TAM 2.5 TAM $10.09 TAM $10.09
NYJ at NEP -10.5 NYJ $27.53 NYJ $47.30 NYJ $74.83
JAC at OAK -4 OAK $20.19 OAK $90.08 OAK $110.26
PIT at CIN 2.5 CIN $0.15 CIN
DET at CHI -5.5 DET $5.89 DET $5.89

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SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
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SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
Computer’s Pick: Seattle (+7)
Bet Amount: $9.25 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: San Francisco finally looked mortal last week, but I don’t believe that it will last.  Playing against Seattle at home gives them a great chance to reassert themselves.  Unfortunately, Seattle’s defense is playing at the top of their game right now, and I don’t expect either team to accomplish much offensively.  Seven points is a lot – I’m looking for Seattle to cover here.
TENNESSEE TITANS
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BUFFALO BILLS
Computer’s Pick: Tennessee (+3)
Bet Amount: $3.90 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: Tossup for me.  I guess I like Buffalo because (in theory) they have many more weapons, but this game really could go either way.  Hence the vanilla spread.
ARIZONA CARDINALS
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MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Computer’s Pick: Arizona (+6)
Bet Amount: $5.05 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: Arizona is consistently better than people are giving them credit for, quarterback troubles aside.  It doesn’t seem to matter who throws to Larry Fitzgerald; he’s getting the job done.  I think Minnesota outperformed at the beginning of the year, and they’re ready to regress to the mean, especially against Arizona’s solid defense.  I like the Cardinals to cover here.
CLEVELAND BROWNS
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INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Computer’s Pick: Indianapolis (-3)
Bet Amount: $3.61 (Conflict)
COMMENTS: Playing the Browns is a great tonic for everyone, and it will be for Andrew Luck as well.  This is a good opportunity for him to show that he’s capable of beating bad teams, and he will.
BALTIMORE RAVENS
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HOUSTON TEXANS
Computer’s Pick: Baltimore (+6.5)
Bet Amount: $9.94 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: Houston was completely dismantled by Green Bay last week, but is Baltimore good enough to do the same to them?  Probably not – but by the same token, there’s no was a 5-1 team should be a 6.5 point underdog, no matter who they’re playing against.  Something actually seems kind of fishy about this spread; apparently Vegas thinks that Baltimore will fall apart in the wake of the injuries they suffered last week.  I don’t.  I think they actually benefit from the loss of Ray Lewis – he was turning into a liability – and will rally to at the very least keep this one close.
GREEN BAY PACKERS
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SAINT LOUIS RAMS
Computer’s Pick: St. Louis (+5)
Bet Amount: $7.72 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: I’m amazed that the computer doesn’t think this line is a huge trap – it certainly feels like one on the heels of Aaron Rodgers performance last week that single-handedly won fantasy games for those fortunate enough to have drafted him.  But apparently the numbers aren’t there.  Personally, I think Green Bay’s offense is going to pick right up where it left off, and put another 35 points on the board or so, and easily cover.  And with how pathetic the St. Louis crowds are, this game might as well be played on a neutral field.
DALLAS COWBOYS
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CAROLINA PANTHERS
Computer’s Pick: Dallas (-2)
Bet Amount: $0.78 (Conflict)
COMMENTS: This is going to be a contest to see which quarterback implodes worse – Romo or Newton. I predict Romo – his offensive line isn’t giving him enough protection, and unlike Newton, he can’t just run away from the pressure.  I’m expecting Dallas to commit a lot of turnovers here.
WASHINGTON REDSKINS
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NEW YORK GIANTS
Computer’s Pick: Washington (+6.5)
Bet Amount: $7.57 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: This actually ought to be an exciting game, with control of the NFC East on the line.  I do think the Giants will be able to win, especially after gaining so much momentum with their win in San Francisco last week, but I also think the travel will have worn them out a bit and they won’t be able to light the Redskins up enough that the spread won’t factor in.  I like the Redskins to cover.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
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TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
Computer’s Pick: Tampa Bay (+2.5)
Bet Amount: $10.09 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: After a horrific start to their season, New Orleans is ready for a winning streak.  They’ll run away with this one.
NEW YORK JETS
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NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Computer’s Pick: New York Jets (+10.5)
Bet Amount: $74.83 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: The Patriots have had the Jets’ number lately, and this week will be no exception.  That’s a lot of points, but it’s not enough.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
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OAKLAND RAIDERS
Computer’s Pick: Oakland (-4)
Bet Amount: $110.26 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: Oakland is 4-16 as a favorite in the last few years.  I normally think that trends are idiotic, but in this case, I don’t need to tell you which way I’m leaning here.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS
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CINCINNATI BENGALS
Computer’s Pick: Cincinnati (+2.5)
Bet Amount: $0.15 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: This one is actually a toss-up for me.  Pittsburgh has shown themselves capable of losing games to lousy teams.  I like that Cincinnati is getting points at home, so I’ll stick with them, though I’m not particularly enthusiastic about it.
DETROIT LIONS
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CHICAGO BEARS
Computer’s Pick: Detroit (+5.5)
Bet Amount: $5.89 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: The Bears continue to look good this season, as Jay Cutler finally has a receiver he likes and trusts in Brandon Marshall.  And the Bears defense is looking as good as ever.  But there’s too many points being given away for a divisional matchup between teams that are very familiar with each other; I like the underdog Detroit to keep this one close.

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Week GAMBLOR SON OF GAMBLOR Profit
W L P Weighted Wins Weighted Picks Weighted Win % W L P Weighted Wins Weighted Picks Weighted Win %
1 7 9 717 1023 70.2% 6 5 2415 3023 79.9% $255.02
2 7 6 330 496 72.5% 4 4 269 428 62.7% $58.39
3 9 5 1 3065 4160 73.7% 3 6 1 4140 7459 55.5% $623.53
4 9 4 1 260 359 72.5% 4 5 1 1031 1646 62.6% $98.79
5 6 6 117 1920 6.1% 1 4 24 3816 0.6% -$1070.94
6 9 3 934 1028 90.9% 6 1 1286 1314 97.9% $420.23
Total 47 33 2 5423 8985 60.4% 24 25 2 9164 17686 51.8% $385.02