Rebirth of Gamblor: Week 8 NFL Picks

Written by Football, Sports

Last week featured a disappointing, if unsurprising, performance for the computer.  With its biggest bet coming in on Oakland to cover as four point favorites, the computer was starting out in a hole, and a surprisingly tough game from the Jets wasn’t enough for it to claw its way out.  Overall, Gamblor went 3-9 with a weighted win percentage of 37.2%, and Son of Gamblor went 4-1 which sounds a lot better than it actually was, because the weighted win percentage was just 38.8%.  Overall, the computer only lost a total of $70, which leaves it with a profit of $314 so far this season.

This week’s Game of Thrones comparison?  The Philadelphia Eagles as House Tyrell.  Much like the Tyrell family, the Eagles are a venerable franchise, tracing their lineage back to the early days of the NFL, and having occupied the same city for their entire history.  Historically, the Tyrell family has been powerful, but has never ascended to the throne of Westeros, and similarly, the Philadelphia Eagles have been a strong franchise, having reached the playoffs 19 times since 1978, but have yet to win a single Superbowl.  The current patriarch, Mace Tyrell, is described as “…a once powerful looking man…since turned to fat…lacking in political savvy.”  Similarly, Andy Reid had a respectable athletic career before he became a full-time coach, and has been notorious for his horrible time-management skills.  Like the Tyrells, the Reid family has been associated with deaths that have come at the hand of toxic substances, and of course, the dominant color in both of their color schemes is green.

Fittingly, this week the computer is anticipating some great act of treachery on the part of the Eagles, and is making yet another tremendous investment in the franchise.

Away Home Spread Gamblor’s Pick Bet Amount Son of Gamblor’s Pick Bet Amount Overall Pick Overall Bet
TAM at MIN -6.5 MIN TAM $0.01 TAM
NEP at STL 6.5 STL $2.06 STL $23.42 STL $25.48
IND at TEN -3.5 IND $1.68 IND $0.10 IND
JAC at GNB -13.5 JAC $3.36 GNB $2.28 JAC
SND at CLE 2.5 CLE $0.23 CLE
ATL at PHI -2.5 PHI $259.99 PHI $299.74 PHI $559.73
SEA at DET -2.5 SEA $4.13 DET $1.24 SEA
MIA at NYJ -2.5 MIA $14.83 MIA $14.83
CAR at CHI -8 CAR $14.30 CAR $9.92 CAR $24.22
WAS at PIT -5 WAS $14.38 WAS $14.38
OAK at KAN -2 OAK $4.21 KAN $7.14 KAN
NYG at DAL 1 DAL $172.66 DAL $186.48 DAL $359.14
NOS at DEN -6 DEN DEN $2.40 DEN
SNF at ARI 7 ARI $5.89 ARI $0.21 ARI $6.10

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TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
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MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Computer’s Pick: Tampa Bay (+6.5)
Bet Amount: $0.01 (Son of Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: The Vikings have been looking pretty solid lately, but are they good enough to cover this kind of spread?  Tampa has only lost one game by more than 6 points this season, and they came back from their bye and beat the snot out of Kansas City.  I don’t think the Vikings will have an easy time putting them away.  I like the points.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
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SAINT LOUIS RAMS
Computer’s Pick: St. Louis (+6.5)
Bet Amount: $25.48 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: If it were a bigger bet, I’d actually call this one off (for Gamblor’s purposes) because travel distance is a factor; so this isn’t actually a home game for the Rams.  I don’t think that would have mattered, though, I still like the Patriots to handle the Rams easily.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
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TENNESSEE TITANS
Computer’s Pick: Indianapolis (+3.5)
Bet Amount: $1.79 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: Much like the Raiders game last week, in no universe should Tennessee be a favorite of more than a field goal.  The Titans defense can’t stop anyone, and even though the Colts have no running game, they’ll still be able to move up and down the field with relative ease.  They’ve shown they can beat bad teams – they’ll keep it up here.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
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GREEN BAY PACKERS
Computer’s Pick: Jacksonville (+13.5)
Bet Amount: $1.08 (Conflict)
COMMENTS: Green Bay is catching fire.  This one would have been a blowout even without Jacksonville having to recover from a long trip and a devastating loss of both personnel and momentum with their collapse against the Raiders last week.  At some point they’ll probably have to invoke the mercy rule.
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
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CLEVELAND BROWNS
Computer’s Pick: Cleveland (+2.5)
Bet Amount: $0.23 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: The Chargers will rebound just fine from their collapse against Denver two weeks ago.  They’ve had plenty of time to lick their wounds and get angry, and Cleveland isn’t the kind of franchise that will be able to absorb that kind of fury.
ATLANTA FALCONS
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PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Computer’s Pick: Philadelphia (-2.5)
Bet Amount: $559.73 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: A lot of times I’m infuriated by the computer’s insistence on picking the Eagles (and Vegas’ tendency to set ridiculous lines with them).  Honestly, shouldn’t the Falcons be favorites until someone actually manages to, you know, beat them?  But strangely enough, this is actually a pick I feel good about.  Vegas is baiting the public with this one, and I’m counting on LeSean McCoy to have a huge day and the Eagles to hand the Falcons their first loss.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
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DETROIT LIONS
Computer’s Pick: Seattle (+2.5)
Bet Amount: $2.89 (Conflict)
COMMENTS: I desperately wanted to get Matt Stafford in both of my fantasy drafts this year, got him in neither, and am feeling very fortunate for it.  It’s sad to see Detroit crumble as they’ve done this year, but Seattle undoubtedly will smell blood in the water and will pull off an upset.
MIAMI DOLPHINS
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NEW YORK JETS
Computer’s Pick: Miami (+2.5)
Bet Amount: $14.83 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: The Jets are going to be exhausted after throwing the kitchen sink at the Patriots and coming up just short.  They won’t show up for this game.  Miami seems like the safe bet here.
CAROLINA PANTHERS
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CHICAGO BEARS
Computer’s Pick: Carolina (+8)
Bet Amount: $24.22 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: As a franchise, Carolina is ready to completely implode.  It depends a bit on how healthy Cutler feels, but the Bears really haven’t shown any signs of slowing down, and their defense looks absolutely impenetrable at this point.
WASHINGTON REDSKINS
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PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Computer’s Pick: Washington (+5)
Bet Amount: $14.38 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: The Steelers are overrated and are running on fumes.  Washington is going to surprise some folks, as long as Griffin manages to avoid getting caught by any dirty hits.
OAKLAND RAIDERS
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KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Computer’s Pick: Kansas City (-2)
Bet Amount: $2.94 (Conflict)
COMMENTS: Neither team is going to show up to this game, but the Raiders will probably win this battle of underachievers by considering Kansas City as “beneath” them and failing to prepare properly.
NEW YORK GIANTS
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DALLAS COWBOYS
Computer’s Pick: Dallas (+1)
Bet Amount: $367.17 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: It’s hard to support Dallas with how badly they’ve been playing, and the Giants seems to be peaking a lot earlier than usual this year.  So you can imagine how comfortable I am about throwing almost four hundred dollars at the Cowboys.  I’ll just keep my fingers crossed, but I won’t be expecting much out of them.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
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DENVER BRONCOS
Computer’s Pick: Denver (-6)
Bet Amount: $2.40 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: Denver’s looking good, but New Orleans’ offense is simply too good to overlook.  Even if they get beat, they’ll still be good for a garbage touchdown or two late in the game to make things close enough for the spread to factor in.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
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ARIZONA CARDINALS
Computer’s Pick: Arizona (+7)
Bet Amount: $6.10 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: San Francisco has no business being such a huge favorite on the road, especially against the Cardinals.  Why won’t anyone give Arizona credit?

flashfiller

Week GAMBLOR SON OF GAMBLOR Profit
W L P Weighted Wins Weighted Picks Weighted Win % W L P Weighted Wins Weighted Picks Weighted Win %
1 7 9 717 1023 70.2% 6 5 2415 3023 79.9% $255.02
2 7 6 330 496 72.5% 4 4 269 428 62.7% $58.39
3 9 5 1 3065 4160 73.7% 3 6 1 4140 7459 55.5% $623.53
4 9 4 1 260 359 72.5% 4 5 1 1031 1646 62.6% $98.79
5 6 6 117 1920 6.1% 1 4 24 3816 0.6% -$1070.94
6 9 3 934 1028 90.9% 6 1 1286 1314 97.9% $420.23
7 3 9 1 120 324 37.2% 4 1 373 962 38.8% -$70.48
Total 50 42 3 5543 9308 59.6% 28 26 2 9537 18648 51.1% $314.54