Rebirth of Gamblor: Week 9 NFL Picks

Written by Football, Sports

Last week was an absolute disaster for the computer.  Although I wasn’t as nervous about it as I usually am, the Eagles continued to suck, and Vegas continued to overvalue them (seriously, making them three point favorites against an undefeated team?  What the hell is up with that?).  And then, to make matters worse, the computer’s second-biggest bet was ruined by Dez Bryant’s instinct to put a hand down first.  Tough break.  All told, Gamblor’s weighted win percentage was just 7.1%, and Son of Gamblor’s was even worse at 2.6%.  Total losses for the week: $952.

This week’s Game of Thrones representative is the Cincinnati Bengals as the Night’s Watch.  Both are composed primarily of criminals and outcasts, both reside in a frozen wasteland with nothing but savages to the north, and both are generally divorced from the power struggles that takes place throughout the rest of the kingdom/league.

A hot week by Gamblor could get it back to the breakeven point this season – I’ll be keeping my fingers crossed.

Away Home Spread Gamblor’s Pick Bet Amount Son of Gamblor’s Pick Bet Amount Overall Pick Overall Bet
KAN at SND -7.5 KAN $50.55 KAN $15.29 KAN $65.83
DEN at CIN 3.5 CIN $1.48 CIN
ARI at GNB -11 ARI $5.07 ARI $5.07
MIA at IND 2.5 IND $6.32 IND $6.32
BAL at CLE 3.5 BAL $97.04 BAL $110.76 BAL $207.80
BUF at HOU -10.5 BUF $0.23 BUF $1.20 BUF
CAR at WAS -3 CAR $6.63 CAR $6.63
DET at JAC 3.5 JAC $5.07 JAC $5.07
CHI at TEN 3.5 TEN $1.87 TEN $45.52 TEN $47.39
MIN at SEA -5 MIN $5.62 MIN $5.62
TAM at OAK -1 TAM $5.15 TAM $5.15
PIT at NYG -3 PIT $9.44 PIT $10.52 PIT $19.96
DAL at ATL -4 DAL $118.88 DAL $85.31 DAL $204.19
PHI at NOS 3 PHI PHI $67.68

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KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
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SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
Computer’s Pick: Kansas City (+7.5)
Bet Amount: $65.83 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: This spread is wrong for both teams.  Kansas City should be bigger underdogs, and San Diego shouldn’t be favored by more than a touchdown with the way they’re playing now.  That said, I’ll take the Chargers.  At least they have potential.
DENVER BRONCOS
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CINCINNATI BENGALS
Computer’s Pick: Cincinnati (+3.5)
Bet Amount: $1.48 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: Peyton Manning is looking really good.  I think this is one of those games where he wins casually.
ARIZONA CARDINALS
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GREEN BAY PACKERS
Computer’s Pick: Arizona (+11)
Bet Amount: $5.07 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: Arizona is going to be deflated by that loss to San Francisco, they’ll be tired, and they won’t have the moxie to get up for the Packers.  With an extra week to work with his replacement receivers, Rodgers will be sharper than he was last weekend.  And if he actually gets Jordy Nelson back, look out.
MIAMI DOLPHINS
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INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Computer’s Pick: Indianapolis (+2.5)
Bet Amount: $6.32 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: I can’t help liking the Colts here – I feel like Luck will find a way to win this game.
BALTIMORE RAVENS
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CLEVELAND BROWNS
Computer’s Pick: Baltimore (-3.5)
Bet Amount: $207.80 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: Baltimore should come back nicely from their bye week, but they won’t be particularly excited about playing the Browns, and they’ll still be concerned about the state of their homes and families on the East Coast.  I think they’ll mail this one in and Cleveland will cover.
BUFFALO BILLS
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HOUSTON TEXANS
Computer’s Pick: Buffalo (+10.5)
Bet Amount: $1.44 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: Everyone is expecting Arian Foster to romp against Buffalo’s weak defense, and they’re right.  We’ll see the same Texans we were seeing at the beginning of the season.
CAROLINA PANTHERS
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WASHINGTON REDSKINS
Computer’s Pick: Carolina (+3)
Bet Amount: $6.63 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: I’d like a shorter line here; I think the Redskins will win, but only by a field goal.  This one looks like a push to me, but I’m going with the Redskins on the off-chance that they manage to put up some kind of insurance points.
DETROIT LIONS
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JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
Computer’s Pick: Jacksonville (+3.5)
Bet Amount: $5.07 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: At some point, Detroit’s got to get their offense moving again…right?  Right?
CHICAGO BEARS
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TENNESSEE TITANS
Computer’s Pick: Tennessee (+3.5)
Bet Amount: $47.39 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: The Bears are doing a fine job of winning games this season, and I see no reason why they wouldn’t continue this trend here.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS
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SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
Computer’s Pick: Minnesota (+5)
Bet Amount: $5.62 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: Minnesota can score in a hurry; I have the feeling that a few big plays will keep them in this game, enough so to cover the spread.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
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OAKLAND RAIDERS
Computer’s Pick: Tampa Bay (+1)
Bet Amount: $5.15 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: This is probably the only time all year that I’m going to pick Oakland as a favorite.  I just like the way they’ve looked lately – instead of finding ways to lose, they’re finding ways to win.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS
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NEW YORK GIANTS
Computer’s Pick: Pittsburgh (+3)
Bet Amount: $19.96 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: The Steelers looked good last week, but I think the Giants will expose them.
DALLAS COWBOYS
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ATLANTA FALCONS
Computer’s Pick: Dallas (+4)
Bet Amount: $204.19 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: Great.  Another $200 thrown away on the Cowboys.  Fucking hell.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
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NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
Computer’s Pick: Philadelphia (+3)
Bet Amount: $0.00 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: Gamblor’s right to stay away from this one.  New Orleans has the kind of defense that just might get Philadelphia’s offense jump-started again.  Then again, Vick might just go ahead and turn it over five times.  You really can’t know.

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Week GAMBLOR SON OF GAMBLOR Profit
W L P Weighted Wins Weighted Picks Weighted Win % W L P Weighted Wins Weighted Picks Weighted Win %
1 7 9 717 1023 70.2% 6 5 2415 3023 79.9% $255.02
2 7 6 330 496 72.5% 4 4 269 428 62.7% $58.39
3 9 5 1 3065 4160 73.7% 3 6 1 4140 7459 55.5% $623.53
4 9 4 1 260 359 72.5% 4 5 1 1031 1646 62.6% $98.79
5 6 6 117 1920 6.1% 1 4 24 3816 0.6% -$1070.94
6 9 3 934 1028 90.9% 6 1 1286 1314 97.9% $420.23
7 3 9 1 120 324 37.2% 4 1 373 962 38.8% -$70.48
8 6 6 117 1653 7.1% 3 7 92 3503 2.6% -$951.93
Total 56 48 3 5660 10961 51.6% 31 33 2 9630 22150 43.5% -$637.39