Posts Tagged ‘depression’

Numberscruncher: Trickling Down and Crowding Out

Shrewd Investor and Nasty Man

Shrewd Investor and Nasty Man

Given the massive Federal deficit, it’s a sure bet that taxes are going up sooner rather than later. Before the Teabaggaz start posting, I think we can all agree that cutting taxes while starting a war is a bad idea. Stuff costs money, whether we’re talking about body armor for our warfighters in Afghanistan or Under Armour shirts. But the problem is what to do about it, because we have to fund our deficit somehow. However, we also have a really fragile economy. If the government raises taxes, will it crowd out the investment and spending needed to create jobs?

The idea behind cutting taxes in the Reagan era was that if less money went to taxes, more would be used for private sector investing, and that the private-sector investing would generate so much economic growth that the loss in revenue from the tax cut would be short-lived. Eventually the economy would expand so much that more taxes would come in at the lower rate because of the larger base. Private-sector investing did increase; the U.S. remains the strongest capital market in the world. It didn’t increase by enough to offset the tax cuts, and part of Reagan’s economic legacy was an increased Federal deficit.

Money can be spent on taxes, consumption, savings, and investment. (Paying down debt is a form of savings.) Money that goes to one purpose cannot be used for another.  Money that the government takes in from taxes can also be used for consumption, savings, or investment. War and Medicare are examples of government consumption spending (which may be on behalf of citizens). Paying down debt is a form of savings, and goodness knows that the government at all levels has plenty of debt to pay off. The government invests when it spends money on bridges, schools, airports, and the like. For accounting purposes, this is handled like consumption. (more…)

Numberscruncher: Rational Regulation

The health-care crisis and the financial crisis have a problem in common, which is how the government can regulate those markets to make things better, not worse.

Regulatory theory forms an interesting intersection of business, law, political science, and philosophy.  Do you give people incentives to do the right thing or punishments for doing the wrong thing? And what is the right thing, anyway? In health care, is our priority access to basic care or access to high technology? Do we care more about cost or about quality?

The libertarian argument is that the market will take of allocating resources. If there is an opportunity, a product will arise to meet it; if there is inefficiency, competition will eliminate it. If everyone acts in his or her own best interest, eventually the interests of society will be served as well. It’s a lovely theory, and it sometimes works in practice. But not always. At an extreme, the libertarian argument would say that doctors do not need to be regulated because once everyone knows who the bad doctors are, they won’t go to them anymore. Unfortunately, a few people may die needlessly before that happens. (more…)

Numberscruncher: What Goes Around

For the month of May, the unemployment rate clocked in at 9.4%, the highest level since the early 1980s. It felt like old times.

I grew up in Youngstown, Ohio, a town on the Pennsylvania border that used to be the home of some of the world’s largest steel makers. My mother’s father was an organizer for the United Steelworkers and eventually was promoted into a sales job: hence, management. My father had wanted to go to college, but his family could not afford it. A white guy with an Irish name, he did the next-best thing and joined the plumbing apprenticeship program, and then became involved in union politics. He lost an election and took a job representing commercial construction companies in political and labor negotiations. Although he took an enormous pay cut when I was in high school, he not only had a job, but it was a one where he wore a coat and tie and had the use of a late-model Oldsmobile.

When I was a senior in high school, the unemployment rate in Youngstown was over 20%. Not everyone in my class had a father who dropped them off on his way to work in his spiffy company car. In Youngstown in 1982, my family was elite. Well, okay, I wasn’t the child of a doctor or a Mafioso (in which case, I would have had my own Camaro to drive to school), but I was better off than so many of my classmates. I showed up at Northwestern thinking that I was a rich kid and was stunned to find out that rich kids do not have student loans and work-study jobs. (more…)