Posts Tagged ‘economic meltdown’

Numberscruncher: FedEx and Economic Recovery

Ben Bernanke said that the recession is over, but what he thinks isn’t important. The more important arbiter of the business cycle, Federal Express, reported its earnings last week. Profits were down 53% from the year prior. Profits were expected to be down, but they did not fall as much as expected. That’s because FedEx is seeing improvement in its freight and ground-shipping divisions. That means that the economy seems to be turning around, because FedEx’s performance is a leading economic indicator.

People ship items because they have received orders for them. The freight business in particular represents shipments between suppliers and manufacturers and then between manufacturers and retailers. The primary measure of economic growth, gross domestic product, measures the total amount of goods and services in the economy at the consumer level. That avoids double-counting, but it also means that producer activity will show changes before the GDP does.  That’s why the FedEx news is so exciting. If manufacturers are starting to order materials, then they must be seeing demand. If so, the recession that officially began in December of 2007 may finally be ending.

FedEx’s financial results will be a measure of economic performance as the business cycle unwinds. Overnight shipping via a private carrier is a luxury. The United States Postal Service has cheaper rates; it costs just 44 cents to send a first-class letter from Maine to Guam, although it probably won’t arrive the next day.  An increase in spending on FedEx indicates not only an improvement in the economy, but also a willingness to spend more for better service. (more…)

Political Culture: The Final Days

Doesn’t it seem like just a decade since the protagonists of our current national melodrama began taking the stage? John McCain announced his candidacy on David Letterman – only to discover that what Dave giveth, Dave can definitely take away. Hillary Clinton thought she’d prove herself futuristic by announcing from her sofa, via an Internet video message; little did she know how the Internet would eventually help overwhelm her once-inevitable rise. Only Barack Obama chose to do things the old-fashioned way, with a grand speech from a statehouse lawn; it was the first of many occasions when Obama, alone among his rivals, recognized that momentous times call for Big Gestures.

And so here we are, five days before the election and less than 24 hours after the last flurry of those gestures. Thirty-five thousand Floridians gathered at midnight for the Kiss-Up in Kissimmee, watching Bill Clinton — in a manic attempt to restore the bona fides he sullied during his wife’s misbegotten run – make his best full-throated argument for Obama. (I say “full-throated” because Clinton seems to have calculated that if he spoke unbelievably loudly – and in a mad dash of words – we wouldn’t notice that he could have been talking about any Democratic candidate, not just the one perched on a stool next to him.) Obama even managed the video-era feat of being two places at the same time, sitting down with Jon Stewart on The Daily Show even as he and Bubba were simultaneously bounding (if not bonding) on stage outside Orlando.

And then there was the small matter of the 30-minute infomercial with which the Obama campaign commandeered seven broadcast networks and cable channels last evening. In case you haven’t seen it, and have a half hour to kill, here it is:

Whatever else last night’s Obamapalooza accomplished, it achieved the same thing his announcement speech in January 2007 did: It made his opponent’s efforts appear small and petty by comparison. McCain spent the day, as he spends every day, on the attack, playing to the narrow-mindedness and bloodlust of his rally crowds rather than to the concerns and hopes of those couple million voters who may not have made up their minds, yet don’t view the world through a conservative ideological prism. Having turned his back on “honor” and “integrity” and all that crap that had never really worked for him anyway (see South Carolina, 2000), McCain and his Bush-leftover advisors now aim to replicate W.’s 50-plus-one strategy by getting ugly and staying ugly right through Tuesday. (more…)