All posts tagged: Football

jan

An Open Letter to Manti Te’o, from Jan Brady

Hi, Manti Te’o. It’s me, Jan Brady! I’m a sophomore at Westdale High School in California. I live with my three brothers, two sisters, and parents. Oh, and Alice! Don’t forget Alice! (She’s our maid, but she’s more like one of the family.) We’re a real bunch. A “Brady bunch!” Ha-ha-ha-ha! I think it’s really neato that you play sports. My favorite sports people are Don Drysdale and Joe Namath, and it’s too bad that you didn’t win the big championship game, but I bet you’ll still be the Big Man on Campus until you graduate. But that doesn’t mean that you can go around and tell people that you have a girlfriend who isn’t real, and that she died. Lying is wrong, Manti. And you shouldn’t lie to people to try to get them to like you. If you have to pretend for them, do you really want them to be your friends? But we Bradys don’t judge, Manti. Also, I understand. Even me, the great Jan Brady, lied about having a boyfriend! I …

sharkboy

Gamblor Raids Again: Week 17 NFL Picks

Sorry, folks.  Gamblor actually had a profitable week last week, but I’m on vacation this week so I don’t have access to the software I need to run a simulation for this week.  I’ll update this post next week with Gamblor’s picks, for those who might be interested for academic purposes, but otherwise we’re flying blind this week.  My thoughts on the games are below: WAS @ PHI -8.5: This spread seems out of control to me for a divisional matchup between two teams who aren’t going anywhere.  The Eagles did a nice job of keeping themselves in the hunt with victories in their last three games, but the jig is finally up.  I don’t think they’ll bother to bring their A game to this one, which will give the Redskins a good chance to remain competitive. SNF @ STL +10.5: St. Louis has a pretty good reason to put forth zero effort in this game (draft standing) while San Francisco has a very reason to put forth 100% effort (home-field advantages in the playoffs). …

homer-running

Gamblor Raids Again: Week 16 NFL Picks

Gamblor was actually looking pretty sharp last weekend, having put together a tidy profit of about $200 by the end of the weekend.  Unfortunately, it lost all its profits and much, much more on Monday night as the Steelers got completely dominated by the 49ers in a game that Gamblor thought was a huge trap.  The stats for the week were 8-7 with a weighted win percentage of 25.1% for Gamblor and 8-3 and 31.6% for Son of Gamblor.  The total (theoretical, cause Gamblor is out of money) loss for the week was another $617.82.  It’s really been unbelievable how bad the computer has been this season – it has managed just two winning weeks out of 15 so far.  Odds are you’d do much, much better just flipping a coin. Here’s the computer’s picks for Week 16, for what it’s worth. Away Home Spread Gamblor’s Pick Bet Amount Son of Gamblor’s Pick Bet Amount Overall Pick Overall Bet HOU at IND 6 IND $1.77 IND $0.04 IND — OAK at KAN -2.5 OAK $8.69 …

homerpalooza4

Gamblor Raids Again: Week 14 NFL Picks

Away Home Spread Gamblor’s Pick Bet Amount Son of Gamblor’s Pick Bet Amount Overall Pick Overall Bet CLE at PIT -14 CLE $3.46 PIT $1.32 CLE — IND at BAL -16.5 IND $4.50 — — IND — HOU at CIN -3 CIN $155.89 CIN $285.48 CIN $441.37 KAN at NYJ -9 KAN $10.94 NYJ $29.98 NYJ $19.04 MIN at DET -7 MIN $9.00 — — MIN $9.00 NOS at TEN 3.5 TEN — NOS $0.33 NOS — PHI at MIA -3 PHI $24.02 PHI $10.17 PHI $34.19 NEP at WAS 8 WAS $179.43 WAS $196.69 WAS $376.12 ATL at CAR 3 CAR $10.87 — — CAR $10.87 TAM at JAC 0 TAM $11.01 — — TAM $11.01 SNF at ARI 4 ARI $3.74 ARI $3.91 ARI $7.64 CHI at DEN -3.5 DEN — DEN $13.77 DEN $13.77 OAK at GNB -11 OAK $3.88 — — OAK — BUF at SND -7 BUF $13.91 SND $4.73 BUF $9.19 NYG at DAL -3 NYG $38.21 NYG $35.28 NYG $73.49 STL at SEA -6 STL $3.12 STL $0.19 …

homerdead

Gamblor Raids Again: Week 13 NFL Picks

I have to say, at this point the only positive thing I can find to say is that I’m glad I didn’t have much money left to lose last week.  After starting off with a solid Thanksgiving by hitting both its bets, the computer proceeded to lose in an epic fashion on Sunday, going just 2-5 and whiffing on its biggest pick of the week, the Eagles – again.  Here’s the thing.  Something very strange is happening with the sportsbooks this year.  Back in Week 1, I complained about the line on the New England-Miami game, which opened with the Patriots favored by a ridiculously low margin of 3 points.  The line shot all the way up to 7, but then slipped back down to 6.5.  Essentially, the books were begging people to bet on the Patriots.  It was such a terrible line that I refused to make the bet, even though Gamblor was screaming that it was a trap.  Well, it wasn’ t a trap, and the books lost a boatload of money as …

homerpoor

Gamblor Raids Again: Week 12 NFL Picks

I don’t even know what to say anymore.  Gamblor has effectively gone bankrupt.  After hitting a peak of +$1,910 after Week 9 last season, Gamblor has proceeded to lose $2752 since.  During this stretch, it has lost money 13 weeks, won money just three times, and effectively broken even twice.  It’s been pretty unbearable, but the side effect is that I no longer get particularly frustrated when things go against me.  When Philip Rivers looks like he might drive the Chargers down the field for a miracle backdoor cover and throws an interception on a ball he meant to throw away, I don’t scream anymore.  When the Eagles blow lead after lead in the second half, I don’t throw whiskey bottles through windows.  I just shrug, write down that the computer was wrong again, and check on  my fantasy team.  I suppose years of rooting for the Raiders have prepared me for this; I think my brain is synthesizing its own version of Prozac to keep me from getting too upset about these things anymore. …

punchhomer2

Gamblor Raids Again: Week 10 NFL Picks

Two weeks ago, the computer had its best week of the season, winning $264 primarily due to a big win by the Eagles.  Last week, the computer turned around and had its worst week of the season, dropping a total of $484 on weighed win percentages of 21.0% for Gamblor and a hugely disappointing 1.9% for Son of Gamblor.  I can’t complain too much about last week’s loss; the Eagles just got outplayed by Chicago.  DeSean Jackson’s fumble right before the half was heartbreaking, but the Eagles could have won and covered if their defense had simply been able to mount any kind of pass rush against Cutler. This is the computer’s biggest betting week of the year so far, with three bets of $80 or more and almost $900 total on the line.  Once again, the computer is putting a tremendous amount of trust in the Eagles, so this season’s fortunes will pretty much depend on Andy Reid’s ability to manage his incredibly talented squad.  Yikes. Away Home Spread Gamblor’s Pick Bet Amount Son …

vlcsnap-1842307

Gamblor Raids Again: Week 9 NFL Picks

Last week the computer looked brilliant thanks to only one team: the Philadelphia Eagles.  The computer nailed its second-biggest bet of the season ($335) and collecting positive juice to boot (+105, for a return of $352).  I spent the weekend agonizing over the spread; I had placed my bet on Friday at -3.5, and the books had dropped it to -3 on Saturday, which would have been a smaller – and safer – bet.  Fortunately, the Eagles delivered in a big way, serving up a dominant performance that has led to an inflated line this week against the Bears, which means that Gambor likes them even more this week.  Overall, most of the computer’s bets performed poorly, as the father went 3-9 and the son went 3-5 with their picks, but both totals were vastly inflated by the Philadelphia bet, leading to weighted win percentages of 66.1% and 90.8%, and a total profit of $264, which helps alleviate some of this season’s losses. Before I get to this week’s bets, I wanted to share something. …