Posts Tagged ‘Gross domestic product’

Spending Our Way Into, and Out of, This Mess

83585834One of my friends had a complaint about the personal financial press: why is it, she wondered, that they are telling people now about raising emergency funds and living below your means. Where were these columnists when her business was good and she had the money to set aside?

Suze Orman always talks about emergency funds, but most of the rest were writing about how to get the most value from your second house or how to buy stocks when things were going well.

Because I’ve been self-employed for ten years now, I’ve been forced to learn how to deal with irregular income. When things are good, I save. That way, I can spend at a steady rate when the work isn’t coming in and the customers are late with payment. Most people work for someone else and receive a steady paycheck, so they are more attuned to the mood of the times, and that is often reflected by advertising. When the economy is hot, advertisers have money to spend to entice you to buy what they offer. When the economy is not so good, the ads disappear, and then people writing about the economy become especially conservative.

Spending got us into this financial mess: spending money that people didn’t have on assets that weren’t as valuable as they thought, whether it was a condo in a new Las Vegas subdivision or a pair of Jimmy Choo shoes. But consumer spending is the engine of the economy. Personal consumption makes up about 70% of the gross domestic product, so when regular folks cut back, it hurts.

Now is a great time to be spending money, assuming you have money to spend. And you know what? A lot of people do. Most people have jobs, and some are getting raises. Bankruptcy lawyers are busier than they have ever been, and the good executives at AIG are collecting fine bonuses. The government’s stimulus package will give taxpayers an extra $8.00 a week to spend. Meanwhile, prices are falling because stores are desperate to attract customers. There are plenty of bargains to be had! (more…)

John Maynard Keynes, Back in Fashion

keynes1Because I’m geeky that way, I’ve been working through Robert Skidelsky’s biography of John Maynard Keynes. In some circles, Keynes is just as bad as Darwin, a godless heathen taking away the divinely ordained tax cuts on the rich. It probably doesn’t help that he was gay, married to a Russian (a woman, but we all know what Russians symbolize in economics), and a member of the Bloomsbury Group.

Keynes has become shorthand for “spend more than you make in the hopes of improving the economy.” But that’s not what he stood for at all. He made his mark after the first World War with The Economic Consequences of the Peace , a discussion of the problems with the Treaty of Versailles. The treaty required Germany to pay reparations to England, France, and the U.S., and Keynes pointed out that Germany did not have the money, would print money to meet the demand, and would sacrifice its domestic economy and political stability to give money to nations that did not need it. And Keynes was right: the German government spent money it did not have on reparations. It printed money, leading to hyperinflation, and created a climate that allowed a madman to come to power in an attempt to assert Germany superiority over those it was forced to pay.

It’s not that Keynesian theory recommends deficit spending. Instead, it recommends government spending during those times when consumer spending and private-sector investing would not be enough to support economic growth.

The basic equation is C + I + G = GDP, where C is consumer spending, I is business investment, and G is government spending. Added together, they equal gross domestic product. If the government taxes people in order to spend money, it could crowd out consumer spending and business investment. But if consumer spending and business investment are falling, then government spending is the way to force GDP back up.

In other words, there are times when it makes sense for the government to spend money, and times when it does not. Because I don’t see consumers and businesses rushing to pick up the slack right now, it would seem that the responsibility falls to our duly elected and appointed leaders. On the other hand, if consumers and businesses were throwing cash around, it would be all right for the government to cut back. (more…)

Pop Politico: “Obama’s Neo Pragmatism”

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“Wow, these grapes are sour!”  A fitting epitaph for Republicans as they try to grab the spotlight to bitch and moan about Obama, the Democrats, and spending while really only offering one policy prescription for the economic dire straits we’re in:  tax cuts.  And tax cuts they got! Even a casual glance at both bills reveals that when it comes to spending, both houses of congress aren’t too far apart. The Senate bill is the one where you wonder what happened to the party that advocates for states.  The sizable tax cuts, the lack of local spending for states’ local governments, and the glaring gap between the House’s bill on infrastructure spending makes me question some Republican’s love for the states and localities that comprise these United States.  Yeah, we’ve heard the old saw about this stimulus bill being the proverbial “Democratic Christmas Tree” when it comes to spending, but c’mon! The idea is to get people back to work so they have money to spend on products and services that come from private businesses — and that won’t come from tax cuts alone.

It doesn’t take much effort to realize that every day private industry is shedding jobs, that unemployment rolls are growing, and consumption is falling.  In short, people are not spending money, and private industries are doing the same.  Credit is tight, people are saving their dollars, businesses are cutting and slashing budgets to weather this storm.  It’s batten down the hatches time, folks. It’s a natural response when times are tough.  But what force turns fear into optimism?  What entity has the kind of power and resources to “prime the pump,” shock the system out of the current doldrums and restore large scale trust?  Government.  In fairness, tax cuts do have a stimulative effect at times, but they take a long time to work. What’s needed are spending programs (yes, spending) that will increase GDP.

Government spending on programs and projects will lead the way to create stable jobs that will allow individuals to feel optimistic about buying products and services that private businesses provide.  However, unbridled consumption is something that comes with consequences to our environment and even to our psyche. I have long been critical of society’s fixation on “things,” and I am in no way saying that we need to go back to a yuppie ideology. Rather, since we’ve already tried variations of the kind of Reagan-inspired economic policies hardcore Republicans have embraced for over a generation — and those polices have clearly shown their limits and their failures — it’s time to see if the democratic pragmatism Obama embodies works. (more…)