Posts Tagged ‘NFL’

NFL Picks: Superbowl XLIV

Gamblor was correct in both of the games last week, going 2-0, but unfortunately it wasn’t confident enough in either pick to wager any money, so it’s take for the week was absolutely nothing.  Of course, as I keep mentioning, Gamblor’s picks are only theoretical during the postseason.  Which is rather unfortunate because it has done quite well, having put together a record of 7-3 so far for a weighted win percentage of 84.1% and a theoretical profit of $456. However, considering its performance last year during the playoffs (I don’t have the numbers in front of me, but trust me, it was bad) I’m not quite ready to let it off the leash in January just yet.

The only true guarantee in sports gambling is that there’s no such thing as a sure thing.  Time and time again this has been proven to us by the casinos, as teams that seem like guaranteed locks somehow find a way to shit the bed and fail to cover – or lose outright.  Unfortunately, that’s the way the system works – or there wouldn’t be a system at all.  If you’re like most gamblers out there, including me, you’ve ended the season down a few chips thanks to all those sure things that turned out to be duds.  I’m convinced that this year’s Superbowl will turn out to be yet another cautionary tale of how the house always finds a way to win.  We’ll probably see Peyton Manning deliver a stellar performance but get handcuffed by shady officiating, and the Saints will score a late touchdown to cut the Colts’ margin of victory to just less than the spread.  That kind of shit happens all the time when Vegas is involved.  But occasionally, every once in a blue moon, the tables turn, and the casinos are the ones who watch in horror as a single freak bounce of the football costs them millions and millions of dollars in the span of a few horrifying seconds.  Which brings me to my feature for the week: (more…)

NFL Picks: Conference Championships

Gamblor had a quiet week last week, going 2-2 for a small loss of $31.  The computer, like many bettors, anticipated that Arizona would put up a much bigger fight against the Saints.  As I’ve said before, Gamblor’s gambling season is over – the playoff losses and gains are completely theoretical.  I haven’t filled in any historical data so I have no idea whether the process actually works once the regular season is over.  And with fewer games each week, Gamblor has less to say anyhow.

Hopefully some of the readers this week include folks who have found their way over from walterfootball.com courtesy of the Punch-Out video I passed on.  It was submitted by a group called Team Awesome as an entry in the Nintendo Short Cuts Showcase contest, and didn’t even receive so much as an honorable mention.  And now it’s got more than twice as many views as all of the ten original finalists combined.  So in honor of Team Awesome, I thought I’d use their fine work as an inspiration for this week’s feature.

(To watch this video, right-click and hit play)

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Given how violent of a game football is, fistfights are actually relatively rare.  With all the protective pads the players are wearing, there’s not all that much point.  These days, when looking to cause serious damage, most players have learned to lead with their head.  But there have still been a number of cases of fisticuffs that have, for one reason or another, made it into the legends and lore of the NFL.  (more…)

NFL Picks: Divisional Playoffs

Gamblor finally scored a big victory against Green Bay last week and had an incredible week overall, going 3-1 with a truly amazing weighted win percentage of 97.0%.  Sadly, its profit of $487 was completely theoretical – as I mentioned last week, Gamblor isn’t designed to run during the playoffs.  It’s just as well; I lost my voice cheering at the end of the Cardinals game – if I’d actually put down the $470 that Gamblor was angling for I probably would have had a heart attack – especially when Rackers missed that 34-yard field goal at the end of regulation. He didn’t even have the courtesy to at least hit the post!

(To watch this video, right-click and hit play)

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I’m very excited about my feature this week because it’s inspired by one of the playoff games we’ll be watching.  I’ve actually been saving this countdown all season in hopes that we’d see this matchup, and soon enough you’ll understand why I consider our number one entry in today’s feature to be the greatest athletic accomplishment in the history of organized sports. (more…)

NFL Picks: Wild Card Weekend

Gamblor finished its season in style, making the second-largest number of weighted picks in its entire 14-year (theoretical) history and finishing with a weighted win percentage of 57.5% and a profit of $153.  Its overall record was actually terrible at 5-11, but it hit its number 1, 3, and 4 picks, including its biggest bet of the season of $524 on the Buffalo Bills, who closed their season by routing a completely disinterested Colts team.  I am now a permanent enemy of the Green Bay Packers, who beat Gamblor yet again by putting in 110% effort against the Arizona Cardinals in a completely meaningless game they’ll be playing again this weekend.  As it turns out, I didn’t have the stones to let Gamblor bet as much money as it wanted to risk ($1200 total) so my take from the week wasn’t quite so high.  But it was a nice end to an otherwise disappointing season.

Gamblor is all done gambling for the year.  The spreads during the playoffs are completely different from the regular season – the sportsbooks don’t seem comfortable trying to set traps the way they normally do.  All of the spreads during the wild card week will open at about -3 in favor of the host, all of the spreads during the divisional playoffs will open at about -5 in favor of the host (who are off a bye week’s worth of rest), and both of the spreads during the conference championships will open at about -3 in favor of the host.  They’ll move a bit according to the action on the game, but there’s really no major edge to be found in the spread itself.  I’m including Gamblor’s picks below just for the purpose of giving me something to agree or disagree with, but as the disclaimer below clearly states, this is for amusement purposes only.  I made my own picks during the season ostensibly to prove that Gamblor’s judgment is better than my own, and seeing as its record of 122-130 beat my own record of 119-133, I don’t think either one of us has sufficient credibility to advise anyone on how these playoff games are going to turn out.

With that said, Gamblor is once again in love with the Arizona Cardinals – for even more than it bet last week.  I’ll explain below.

NEW YORK JETS
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CINCINNATI BENGALS
Gamblor’s Pick: New York (+2.5)
Bet Amount: $72.50 (Hedge)
WHY IT’S WRONG: Gamblor thinks this spread is perfect.  Literally perfect.  All 360 models see this spread resulting no side dominating in more than 55% of the permutations.  And I can’t disagree.

The game we saw last week really doesn’t have all that much to do with game we’ll see this week.  The last time the Bengals made the playoffs was in 2005, and the last time before that was in 1990.  That was also the last time they hosted a playoff game, which they won (against the Houston Oilers).  Their fans will not let this opportunity to affect the game pass them by.

All of the relentless talk about Mark Sanchez’s “poise” pretty much fell off after he threw four interceptions while losing to the New England Patriots in an important game during Week 11.  On the road.  Sanchez hasn’t had much success away from Giants Stadium – in his three toughest away games (New England, Miami, and New Orleans) he’s thrown just two touchdowns to seven interceptions.  And this will be his toughest road game yet.

Many of the weaknesses that the Bengals showed against the Jets will have been addressed.  They were wise not to use a vanilla game plan in the final game of the season.  Needing the win, the Jets showed all their cards.  The Bengals will have a more interesting – and more effective – game plan of their own this week.  Injured defensive linemen Domata Peko and Robert Geathers will be back, Cedric Benson will play, and Chad Ochocinco will be 100% again.  It’s not hard to imagine this being a very tough game (that even has the potential to go to overtime), but in the end the Bengals will end up on top.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
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DALLAS COWBOYS
Gamblor’s Pick: Philadelphia (+4)
Bet Amount: $16.92 (Hedge)
WHY I AGREE: Losing to the Dallas Cowboys last week was a tremendous letdown for the Eagles.  They looked terrible, they blew a chance at having a bye (and home field advantage the following week), and they let their fans down in the final game of their season.  But as strange as it sounds,

I think it might end up being a good thing for them.  The Eagles had put together a six game winning streak, but during those games the toughest opponent they faced was the Atlanta Falcons.  The loss to the Cowboys was an important wake-up call for them.

Dallas has beaten Philadelphia in both games they played this year, taking the earlier contest at Cowboy Stadium by a score of 20-16.  They seem to have conquered their December curse, but there’s still plenty of bad mojo left regarding their record in the playoffs in recent history.  There are times when teams try too hard, and I think they have the potential to fall into this trap.  Philadelphia can bait them with a few trick plays and double moves that exploit their hunger – look for DeSean Jackson to pull in at least one long touchdown before this game is over.

Like the earlier game, I see this one as being a tight contest.  There will be a lot of lead changes, and it should be an exciting game to watch.  But I think the spread has drifted just a little bit too high, and will factor in in Philadelphia’s favor.

BALTIMORE RAVENS
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NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Gamblor’s Pick: Baltimore (+3)
Bet Amount: $10.27 (Hedge)
WHY I AGREE: This is New England’s last gasp.  They managed to beat Baltimore earlier this season on the road, but that was primarily due to a dropped ball by Mark Clayton that cost the Ravens a first

down inside New England’s ten yard line with under a minute left.  Joe Flacco learned then that he’s capable of beating the Patriots – and he won’t have forgotten it.  The Patriots certainly have plenty of playoff experience – but so do the Ravens.  And it’s more recent experience – they made it to teh conference championship last year, while the Patriots were stuck at home moaning about the inequities of the playoff structure.

New England’s secondary is weak.  Against the three most prolific passing teams they’ve faced (Indianapolis, New Orleans, and Houston), they’ve given up an average of 35.7 points per game and lost all three contests.  While Baltimore isn’t capable of those kinds of numbers, John Harbaugh is smart enough to recognize the Patriots’ weakness in this area and make the most of it.  With Ray Rice and Willis McGahee helping to force the defense to focus on stopping the running game, the Ravens will have a chance to throw the ball downfield often.  And Flacco will be capable of executing the game plan solidly.

The Patriots offense, on the other hand, is leaking oil in a major way.  Randy Moss seems to wither at the slightest sign of adversity, and with Welker gone the Ravens will be able to smother him with at least two defensive backs on every single play.  Edelman has the physical tools to fill in for him, but doesn’t have the same rapport with Tom Brady that made Welker so dangerous as an outlet for Brady on blitzes and in other tight spots.  It’s not hard to see Baltimore winning this game outright, and I hope they do.

GREEN BAY PACKERS
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ARIZONA CARDINALS
Gamblor’s Pick: Arizona (-1)
Bet Amount: $471.25 (Flip)
WHY IT’S WRONG: Yet again, Gamblor sees this spread as being far too high in favor of the Cardinals.  Last week I mentioned that Green Bay has been costing the sportsbooks a ton of money

thus far this season because they haven’t set the lines properly, and I finally figured out why Gamblor always thinks the spreads in Green Bay games are always off.  It’s all about turnovers.

Gamblor factors in the turnover ratio pretty heavily – because it’s one of the most important indicators of how strong a team actually is.  This year, the Packers finished with a ratio of +22.  They only turned the ball over 15 times (7 interceptions and 8 fumbles) while taking it away 37 times.  Nobody else in the league is anywhere close to that – and even the worst teams in the NFL (Detroit) is only at -16.  It’s the highest ratio the NFC has seen in the last ten years or so.

The Packers are red-hot right now.  Their offense seems unstoppable, and their defense is completely shutting everyone else down.  They’ve won seven of their last eight, and haven’t lost against the spread during that time, and they just trounced Arizona in what they’re hoping was a preview of Sunday’s game.  This seems to be the one game where Vegas is taking a bit of a chance but they’re already starting to panic.  The line, which opened at -2.5, has already slipped all the way to -1.  And at the moment, 88% of the money is on the underdog Packers.  I’m not sure they meant to, but the books are relying pretty heavily on an Arizona win.

In the end, I simply can’t be objective about this one.  I hate the goddamed Packers because they’ve cost me so much money this season – $940 in total.  I hope the Cardinals stomp them into a fine yellow and green paste.

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WeekZackGamblorWeighted WinsWeighted PicksWeighted Win %Profit
WinLosePushWinLosePush
179-97-1339172777.5%$155.71
297-115-970129275.1%$98.97
397-610-607155239.1%-$61.75
486-59-28896329.9%-$70.33
568-68-655121753.8%$15.46
677-86-625123150.8%-$10.53
7841391246116121.2%-$127.43
8310-97-709154845.8%-$34.43
976-103-1152160971.6%$119.67
1078-87-660211031.3%-$159.21
1188-88-745161446.2%-$29.81
12781691496123040.3%-$59.66
13412-79-482103746.5%-$20.55
1488-79-581157336.9%-$92.19
15871961555258221.5%-$302.82
16871871744108968.3%$70.58
17511-511-3714645757.5%$70.58
Total11913341221304145682999248.6%-$353.41

For legality purposes, this website does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.

NFL Picks: Week 17 (updated)

The spread for the Buffalo game is -8.5.  Yeah.  A 5-10 team is an 8.5 point favorite over a 14-1 one.  So of course Gamblor thinks this spread is about the most ridiculous thing it’s ever seen and wants to bet the farm on the Bills.  Due to all the strange spreads, Week 17 is usually Gamblor’s most active week of the season, and this year is no exception.  Between this game, the Arizona game, and the Jets game, this is the second-most weighted picks Gamblor has ever made.  And I’m afraid to say it, but I don’t have the guts to follow through.  All told, Gamblor wants to put over $1200 on the line this week, and that’s a bit too rich for my blood.  I’ve scaled things down so the total money I’ve actually got on the line is just under $800.  But the bets below reflect what Gamblor would do if it had an unlimited budget.  I’ll be adding things up at the end of the week as though I had the stones, though I may have to put this week into the record books with an asterisk next to it.

Gamblor finally got things back together, prioritizing its bets very well and cracking its losing streak with a solid performance of 8-7-1 (going 7-4 in games where it had money on the line).  It turned a tidy profit of $70.88 on a weighted win percentage of 68.3%, which helped put a dent in the beating it’s been taking recently.  It’s a shame I didn’t get to recalculate the bets with updated spreads, because it would have managed to win a little bit more, as the bets on San Diego and Kansas City would have increased a bit.

As I mentioned at the beginning of the season, Gamblor is set up to profit the same way that the sportsbooks do.  I’m certainly dismayed at how it has done this season (though the total of its losses can be traced to just two games – both large flip bets against Green Bay), but I’m comforted by the fact that Vegas had a pretty lousy year as well.  Week 7 was regarded as one of the worst weeks for the sportsbooks in NFL history, and Week 14 also featured a series of lopsided bets that mostly went against the books.  There’s really no contest as to what was the worst bad beat of the year for Vegas, though – the incredible comeback of Drew Brees and the Saints over the Dolphins in Week 7.  This game was more significant than just a tough loss for the books on a heavily-backed favorite.  It capped off a week when favorites went 10-2-1 against the spread and an incredible number of parlays and teasers paid off.  But even though the Saints covered the spread in the first six games of the season, their 8-7 overall record against the spread and failure to cover on some very lopsided games has saved them from being the bane of the books’ existence this season.  That honor is shared almost equally between two teams: the Green Bay Packers and the Seattle Seahawks.

(To watch this video, right-click and hit play)

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One of the things that Vegas greatly depends on the fallacy of groupthink.  When everyone agrees that something is virtually guaranteed to happen, that’s when the universe will decide to throw out a wild card and the opposite occurs.  The sportbooks normally profit very handsomely off of this.  But Green Bay and Seattle have been consistently spitting in the face of this trend all season long.  With their incredibly well-tuned offense, Green Bay has faced a number of large spreads and has managed to cover at an incredible rate of 10-4-1.  And more importantly, in games where the action was shaded towards a particular side, Green Bay has really hammered the books – the more heavily backed side has prevailed in 11 of 14 contests.  For Seattle it’s been even worse – the more heavily backed team has covered the spread in 11 of the 15 games the Seahawks have played thus far – and the action has been even more lopsided.

To explain how expensive it’s been for the books to take bets on or against these teams, imagine a pool of 100 bettors, each wagering $10 on each Green Bay and Seattle game.  In week 3, for example, 93% of bettors favored Green Bay in their game against St. Louis, and just 4% of bettors favored the Seahawks (who were missing Hasselbeck due to an injury) in their game against Chicago.  At these rates, bettors would have invested $930 on Green Bay, $70 on St. Louis, $40 on Seattle, and $960 on Chicago.  Green Bay and Chicago both covered the spreads, which meant that after factoring in the juice, the books would have lost $833 on the Green Bay game ($873 paid out minus $40 kept) and $775 on the Seattle game ($845 paid out vs. $70 kept).  Extending this system through the entire season, Vegas would have ultimately lost almost $3700 over the course of the season due to the Packers, and an incredible $4800 due to the Seahawks.

These teams have also crippled Gamblor as well.  The computer has gone just 3-9 when it has bet money in Green Bay’s games, losing $548 at the hands of the Packers (primarily due to a pair of devastating losses on flip bets).  And against Seattle it has performed at an even more dismal rate of 2-10, losing $163 in the process.  Who has been good to poor Gamblor?  The Atlanta Falcons and the Miami Dolphins.  Between the two of them, they have performed at a rate of 18-9 when Gamblor has bet in their games, winning $193 for the computer over the course of the season. But who has been Gamblor’s biggest savior?  The Arizona Cardinals.  In the 10 games where Gamblor has wagered money on them, they’ve won 9 times – for total winnings of $123.  Which is why the big bet this weekend is so much more interesting.

This week, like some idiot fratboy that’s hitting up the ATM for the third time because he’s “pissed” at some indifferent blackjack dealer and wants to “get revenge,” Gamblor is ready to sink more money into yet another dubious bet against its nemesis, the Green Bay Packers.  Fortunately, it’s backing its strongest supporter thus far this season – the Arizona Cardinals.  I’m hoping that the computer saved the best for last, because it’s the second 95% bet of the season and the largest one I’ve ever placed using this system.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
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BUFFALO BILLS
Gamblor’s Pick: Buffalo (-8.5)
Bet Amount: $523.77 (Flip)
WHY IT’S WRONG: The Colts are smarting from the backlash their fans leveled at them after they laid down against the Jets last week.  They’ll probably only play the starters for the first half once again, but they won’t phone it in this time.  Indianapolis shouldn’t have any trouble racking up a big lead in the first half and sitting on it in the second.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
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CLEVELAND BROWNS
Gamblor’s Pick: Jacksonville (+1)
Bet Amount: $31.73 (Hedge)
WHY I AGREE: I’m glad that the books have Jacksonville down as an underdog here.  Honestly, what are the odds that Cleveland is going to win three games in a row?  They’ll play hard, but they are very firmly in the lower tier of the NFL, and they’re not at the same level as the Jaguars, who will be looking to prove this emphatically.
CHICAGO BEARS
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DETROIT LIONS
Gamblor’s Pick: Detroit (+3)
Bet Amount: $19.73 (Hedge)
WHY IT’S WRONG: Everyone think that Chicago is going to keep rolling after their thrilling victory over the Vikings last week, and I can’t disagree.  Cutler will have been given the boost of confidence he needs, and Stafford is out.  My only concern is that the line is a trap.  This is one of those games that Vegas generally drools over, but in this case they (and Gamblor) can trust the Lions if they want.  I certainly don’t.
ATLANTA FALCONS
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TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
Gamblor’s Pick: Tampa Bay (+2.5)
Bet Amount: $15.26 (Flip)
WHY IT’S WRONG: Gamblor sees this spread as too low, and I see its point.  But Atlanta is going to want to end their season on a high note, even though the playoffs are out of reach.  Even though Freeman was solid against the Saints last week, he’s due to come back to earth once more.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
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CAROLINA PANTHERS
Gamblor’s Pick: Carolina (+6)
Bet Amount: $8.14 (Hedge)
WHY I AGREE: This spread is just an estimate – I’ll post my thoughts later in the week when a line has been posted.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
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HOUSTON TEXANS
Gamblor’s Pick: Houston (-8)
Bet Amount: None (Flip)
WHY I AGREE: Gamblor thinks this spread is just a little bit too big in favor of the Texans.  I agree wholeheartedly.  The last time New England was an underdog of 8 points or more was in 2001.  Yes.  Almost ten years ago.  Vegas is begging you to bet on the Patriots.  I wonder why?
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
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SAINT LOUIS RAMS
Gamblor’s Pick: St. Louis (+7)
Bet Amount: $6.51 (Hedge)
WHY I AGREE: Standard issue hedge bet on the Rams, who have been pretty solid against the spread.  I’m fine with it, though I’m glad it’s on the low side.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS
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MIAMI DOLPHINS
Gamblor’s Pick: Miami (+1.5)
Bet Amount: $19.53 (Hedge)
WHY I AGREE: It’s hard to imagine Pittsburgh throwing away their own playoff chances, especially after their comeback against Green Bay.  But Miami has a theoretical chance of making the playoffs too.  They won’t, but they won’t lie down either.  It’s hard for me to imagine how they’ll pull it off, but Week 17 is usually full of surprises and I think this will be the biggest one.
NEW YORK GIANTS
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MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Gamblor’s Pick: New York Giants (+9)
Bet Amount: $26.04 (Hedge)
WHY I AGREE: It’s the last weekend, so I’m going to go balls-out and call for the shocker.  The Giants are going to win this game straight up.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
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DENVER BRONCOS
Gamblor’s Pick: Denver (-13)
Bet Amount: $15.26 (Flip)
WHY IT’S WRONG: Denver won’t lose this game, but they’re not good enough to cover a spread this large.  They failed against the Raiders, and they’ll fail here, too.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
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DALLAS COWBOYS
Gamblor’s Pick: Philadelphia (+3)
Bet Amount: $23.39 (Hedge)
WHY I AGREE: Philadelphia thrives as an underdog, and just because the Cowboys have had a pair of strong games in December this year doesn’t mean they’ve solved all their problems.  The Eagles have a great chance to steal the bye away from the Vikings, and they’ll make the most of their opportunity.
GREEN BAY PACKERS
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ARIZONA CARDINALS
Gamblor’s Pick: Arizona (-3.5)
Bet Amount: $392.16 (Flip)
WHY I AGREE: This is more of a bet on the Giants than it is on the Cardinals.  If the Giants beat the Vikings in their early game, the Cardinals will play their starters.  If not, Leinart will get the nod.  It’s unlikely that the Packers will expend any sort of effort in this game; there’s a good chance they’ll be playing the Cardinals again next week so they won’t want to risk their star players or give away any of their strategy.  I’m not thrilled about laying down this bet, but the spread is actually what’s convincing me – if Vegas though Green Bay had a good shot at winning this game, they’d put the spread a lot lower.   I just hope Gamblor is finally right this time.
WASHINGTON REDSKINS
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SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
Gamblor’s Pick: Washington (+4)
Bet Amount: $4.27 (Flip)
WHY IT’S WRONG: It’s a bad idea to pick against the Chargers.  It’s taken me a while, but I’m finally on board.  These guys are good.
TENNESSEE TITANS
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SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
Gamblor’s Pick: Tennessee (-4.5)
Bet Amount: $6.92 (Flip Conflict)
WHY I AGREE: I’ve been consistently picking against Gamblor when it comes to Seattle, but this week I agree with the computer.  Seattle’s got nothing left to play for, while Tennessee can salvage a .500 season after one of the most disastrous starts in franchise history.  Chris Johnson will get the ball enough times to get to 2000 yards, and on the way he’ll drag the Titans along to victory.
BALTIMORE RAVENS
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OAKLAND RAIDERS
Gamblor’s Pick: Oakland (+10.5)
Bet Amount: $19.12 (Hedge)
WHY IT’S WRONG: This game will turn out exactly like the Jets game did – with the Raiders getting blown out in an empty Coliseum.
CINCINNATI BENGALS
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NEW YORK JETS
Gamblor’s Pick: New York Jets (-10)
Bet Amount: $126.11 (Flip)
WHY I AGREE: This spread is ridiculous.  Once again, the books are begging bettors to put money on the Bengals.  I’m not sure why, but they’ve got their reasons.

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WeekZackGamblorWeighted WinsWeighted PicksWeighted Win %Profit
WinLosePushWinLosePush
179-97-1339172777.5%$155.71
297-115-970129275.1%$98.97
397-610-607155239.1%-$61.75
486-59-28896329.9%-$70.33
568-68-655121753.8%$15.46
677-86-625123150.8%-$10.53
7841391246116121.2%-$127.43
8310-97-709154845.8%-$34.43
976-103-1152160971.6%$119.67
1078-87-660211031.3%-$159.21
1188-88-745161446.2%-$29.81
12781691496123040.3%-$59.66
13412-79-482103746.5%-$20.55
1488-79-581157336.9%-$92.19
15871961555258221.5%-$302.82
16871871744108968.3%$70.58
Total11412241171194108542353546.1%-$507.32

For legality purposes, this website does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.

NFL Picks: Week 16

The computer had a nice week last week, going 9-6-1 against the spread.  Well, it was almost nice.  If I hadn’t dropped $340 on Pittsburgh, I’d have been up $40.  Yeah, Gamblor’s biggest bet of the year missed.  It was pretty brutal to watch the end of that game and see Pittsburgh pull out victory by a single point – one point too few to cover the two point spread.  It’s tough because I can’t even complain too much about the decisions that were made – Green Bay’s two point conversion was the right thing to do (a six point lead is infinitesimally more valuable than a five point lead) and Tomlin’s decision to go for an onsides kick to make sure his team had enough time for a drive of their own turned out to be right as well.  Overall, the week ended with a weighted win percentage of 21.5% and a loss of $301.  And I don’t even mind so much.  I’m in this for the long haul, and if the program works the way it’s expected to, I’ll be losing one out of every three of these 95% bets.  This just happened to be one of the losses. 

I have to apologize for the lack of a Simpsons clip or a feature this week – I’m in Virginia for the holiday and there’s no way I’d have time to write a feature AND burn my name onto Dan Snyder’s lawn.  So I’m listening to my heart.  Here’s your picks for the week.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
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TENNESSEE TITANS
Gamblor’s Pick: San Diego (+3)
Bet Amount: $4.83 (Hedge)
WHY IT’S WRONG: Last week I mentioned that San Diego has to take a game off sooner or later, and against Cincinnati they did.  Sort of.  They didn’t cover the spread, but they did lock up a bye.  With this in mind, and considering that there’s no possibility they can catch the Colts, it will be very tough for them to get motivated to play on Christmas.  On the flip side, this game means the world to the Titans.  They’re playing for their playoff lives, and although Gamblor sees nothing wrong with this spread, for most bettors it feels high.  It seems like Tennessee should be favored by less – if at all.  Most of the money is chasing San Diego, which is the way Vegas wants it.
BUFFALO BILLS
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ATLANTA FALCONS
Gamblor’s Pick: Atlanta (-9)
Bet Amount: $60.82
WHY I AGREE: This is Gamblor’s largest bet of the week, and with good cause.  It’s hard to judge whether Matt Ryan is truly healthy again, but Buffalo have nobody to play quarterback for them.  This game will unfold much the Patriots game did last week, except Buffalo will have less offense and the home field advantage will mean a few extra points for the Falcons.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
at
CINCINNATI BENGALS
Gamblor’s Pick: Kansas City (+14)
Bet Amount: $1.81 (Hedge)
WHY I AGREE: Kansas City has one of the worst defenses the NFL has seen in a long time.  The only teams they’ve held to 10 points or less have been Washington and Oakland (and they would have given up another touchdown to the Raiders if not for Darius Heyward-Bey’s ineptitude.  I wouldn’t trust that oaf to catch a cold.  Maybe the Rams should take a look at him…) and they just surrendered the second-highest total of rushing yards in NFL history to the previously anonymous Jerome Harrisson.  It’s hard to imagine how they could possibly keep up with Cincinnati – which is undoubtely how the Bengals feel.  But the Bengals haven’t secured anything yet, so they won’t take this contest too lightly.  If they had a more potent offense, I’d trust them to run up the score.  But they don’t, so instead I think they’ll play conservatively and leave themselves open to a backdoor cover.
OAKLAND RAIDERS
at
CLEVELAND BROWNS
Gamblor’s Pick: Oakland (+3)
Bet Amount: $11.68 (Hedge)
WHY I AGREE: The Browns are nowhere near good enough to be favorites, no matter who they’re playing against.  Even the Raiders.  In many of these garbage games this year, it’s been worthwhile to take the points – and this game is no exception.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
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GREEN BAY PACKERS
Gamblor’s Pick: Seattle (+14)
Bet Amount: $0.81 (Flip and Hedge)
WHY IT’S WRONG: This spread is straddling the line between being too small and just right, which is why neither of Gamblor’s scheme is particularly interested in this bet.  It’s hard for me to stay objective about either one of these teams.  My hatred of the Seahawks is well-documented – Seattle has lost more bets for me than any other team this season.  But in one fell swoop (really, with one single two-point conversion) Green Bay ruined my largest bet of the season.  I’m a bit in awe of the Packers right now, so that’s who I’m picking in this one.  They’ve got a good reason to play hard (locking up a playoff spot) and Seattle is simply beyond helpless when playing against better teams.
BALTIMORE RAVENS
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PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Gamblor’s Pick: Pittsburgh (-2.5)
Bet Amount: $0.60 (Flip)
WHY I AGREE: I really don’t see that much of an edge in this game.  Both teams have quite a buit of momentum, both teams need this win badly, and both teams are missing important players at the safety position.  The Ravens’ secondary didn’t have any more success stopping Green Bay’s aerial attack than Pittsburgh did, so it’s possible that this game will be a shootout.  Green Bay beat Baltimore, and Pittsburgh beat Green Bay, so I guess I’ll trust Gamblor’s judgment on this one and stick with Pittsburgh.
HOUSTON TEXANS
at
MIAMI DOLPHINS
Gamblor’s Pick: Houston (+3)
Bet Amount: $24.37 (Hedge)
WHY IT’S WRONG: These teams are both pretty unpredictable.  Wild cards, if you will.  But Houston has seemed flat lately, almost dropping an important game to the lowly Rams last week.  I think the home field advantage is what this game comes down to.  Since the game’s being played in Miami, I think they’re the right side in this one.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
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NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Gamblor’s Pick: Jacksonville (+8)
Bet Amount: $29.81 (Hedge and Flip)
WHY IT’S WRONG: I don’t trust Jacksonville.  It seems like every time they have a chance to take control of their season, they blow it.  New England is going to care an awful lot about winning this game, and Belichick is going to want to carry some momentum into the playoffs.  The Patriots are capable of putting up bing points at any time, and given that Jacksonville is susceptible to being blown out, I think that eight points isn’t nearly enough.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
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NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
Gamblor’s Pick: Tampa Bay (+14)
Bet Amount: $25.17 (Hedge)
WHY I AGREE: New Orleans didn’t pull off their undefeated season.  They’ve already got home field advantage throughout the playoffs locked up.  They’re at home for the second week in a row and undoubtedly got good and stuffed at Christmas dinner with their families.  They’ll be phoning this one in.
CAROLINA PANTHERS
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NEW YORK GIANTS
Gamblor’s Pick: New York Giants (-7)
Bet Amount: $9.06 (Flip)
WHY I AGREE: I’m glad Gamblor likes the Giants here – I do too.  As with the Patriots, they’ll be looking to build momentum for the postseason.  Carolina, who threw the kitchen sink and Minnesota last week (and prevailed!) won’t be able to keep up.  Remember how I mentioned that lots of rookie quarterbacks get a honeymoon period in the NFL?  Matt Moore was great against Minnesota, but now the rest of the league has had a chance to study his play.  The Giants will send him home with a solid pounding.
DENVER BRONCOS
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PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Gamblor’s Pick: Denver (+7)
Bet Amount: $9.06 (Hedge)
WHY IT’S WRONG: Philadelphia has been incredibly dominant.  And despite Andy Reid’s incompetence, they’ve managed to hold it together this far into the season and lock up a playoff berth.  They’re due for a stinker like they put together against the Raiders, but it won’t strike here.  Denver just lost to the Raiders.  At home.  On a last minute drive by Jamarcus Russell.  It’s doesn’t get much worse than that.  Even though the Broncos still control their own destiny with regards to the postseason, I expect they’ll get beat deep, commit lots of stupid penalties, and ultimately get drilled by the Eagles.
SAINT LOUIS RAMS
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ARIZONA CARDINALS
Gamblor’s Pick: St. Louis (+14)
Bet Amount: $0.81 (Hedge Conflict)
WHY IT’S WRONG: Gamblor seems to think that fourteen points is somewhere between just right and too many, but I sure don’t.  St. Louis can’t do a single thing at even an “adequate” level, and while Arizona doesn’t have all that much to play for (coming up short of a bye but having only a very slim chance of pulling off a first-round bye), there’s nothing for the Rams to play for either.  Keith Null is an absoulte disaster at quarterback, Stephen Jackson is far from 100%, and the Rams will have big problems moving the ball.  And the only thing that’s going to slow Arizona’s offense down is having to wait for their offensive linemen to catch up to the line of scrimmage.
DETROIT LIONS
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SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
Gamblor’s Pick: Detroit (+12)
Bet Amount: $0.40 (Hedge)
WHY I AGREE: Hey, we all know how awful Detroit is.  But who in their right mind thinks San Francisco can cover a twelve point spread?  They’ve only won three games since Week 4!
NEW YORK JETS
at
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Gamblor’s Pick: New York Jets (+5.5)
Bet Amount: $18.53 (Hedge)
WHY I AGREE: Better teams than the Jets have been underdogs of more than just 5.5 points against the Colts.  But Indianapolis’ philosophy regarding their last few games is well-known, and Caldwell certainly hasn’t given off the impression that he’s planning to risk his stars in pursuit of a perfect regular season record.  He’ll start his first team, but as soon as someone is a little slow getting up, he’ll start pulling them.  And Rex?  Rex really wants this game.  He’ll do everything he can (i.e. blitz) to keep Caldwell pulse rate nice and high.
DALLAS COWBOYS
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WASHINGTON REDSKINS
Gamblor’s Pick: Washington (+7)
Bet Amount: $16.92 (Hedge)
WHY IT’S WRONG: Where did the Redskins go agains the New York Giants?  An emerging theory is that Jim Zorn’s ridiculous “swinging gate” play call at the end of the first half was a big “fuck you” to Dan Snyder.  Let me echo that sentiment.  I’m picking the Cowboys here, but for purely sentimental reasons.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS
at
CHICAGO BEARS
Gamblor’s Pick: Chicago (+7)
Bet Amount: $5.84 (Hedge)
WHY IT’S WRONG: How could anyone bet on Chicago at this point?  The Vikings are lucky they’re facing a tomato can like the Bears because it’s the perfect opportunity for Farve and Childress to bury the hatchet with a big win instead of letting this thing fester and blossom into a first-round exit from the playoffs.  A better opponent would make good use of the schism – changing defensive schemes and forcing Farve to audible against his coach’s wishes – but Chicago will have their hands full just trying to keep Minnesota under 40 points.

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WeekZackGamblorWeighted WinsWeighted PicksWeighted Win %Profit
WinLosePushWinLosePush
179-97-1339172777.5%$155.71
297-115-970129275.1%$98.97
397-610-607155239.1%-$61.75
486-59-28896329.9%-$70.33
568-68-655121753.8%$15.46
677-86-625123150.8%-$10.53
7841391246116121.2%-$127.43
8310-97-709154845.8%-$34.43
976-103-1152160971.6%$119.67
1078-87-660211031.3%-$159.21
1188-88-745161446.2%-$29.81
1278169-496123040.3%-$59.66
13412-79-482103746.5%-$20.55
1488-79-581157336.9%-$92.19
15871961555258221.5%-$302.82
Total10611531091123101102244645.0%-$577.90

For legality purposes, this website does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.

NFL Picks: Week 15

Fucking hell.  I need to keep reminding myself that in the long run this program has actually still made money for me.  But another weekend like the last one and that won’t be true anymore.  Gamblor went 7-9 and dropped $90, missing its biggest bet on Oakland and suffering its fifth losing week in a row.  It’s not the worst stretch in the computer’s history, but it certainly is disheartening.  I was in Vegas last weekend, so I put down a $10 “disaster parlay” against three of my biggest bets last week (Oakland, Seattle, and Kansas City) and it obviously paid off, so ultimately my losses for the week were actually only $30 – though the parlay won’t be reflected in the summary table below.  But that trend of small bleeding is guaranteed to change in a big way this week, as Gamblor finally is ready to put a 95% bet on the line.

It’s been a rough year second half of the year for Gamblor.  Just five weeks ago, back when Gamblor was still in the black for the year, I did a countdown of the five biggest upsets it had predicted so far.  Since then, the computer has had a weighted win percentage of just 39.2% and has lost a total of $361.  So this week, in hopes of reversing this trend, I thought I’d do the opposite and take a look at its five biggest mistakes so far this year – in hopes that it doesn’t make a bigger one this week.

(To watch this video, right-click and hit play)

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5. Tennessee Titans 31, Jacksonville Jaguars 13. In Week 8 the Titans returned to action after a bye having lost seven games in a row.  Nobody was interested in betting on them as favorites, least of all Gamblor, who thought the three point spread was right where it should have been and took the Jaguars as a large hedge bet.  But Vince Young was practically perfect in his return to the starting role, connecting on 15 of 18 passes and Chris Johnson ran wild on the Jaguars defense, racking up 228 yards and scoring a pair of touchdowns as the winless Titans delivered an unexpected blowout.

4. New Orleans Saints 48, New York Giants 27. In Week 6 the Saints were being recognized as a fierce offensive threat and had pummeled everyone they had faced so far during the young season – they had won by margins of 22, 26, 20, and 14 points in their first four games. Fresh off a bye, they were facing the similarly undefeated New York Giants, who were already a game ahead of them at 5-0. Gamblor liked the spread of 3 points – this seemed like it would be a tough contest, with New Orleans having a slight advantage for being the host, but otherwise a coin flip in terms of team strength. 204 of the 360 models chose the Giants. But New Orleans put this game away early, racing off to a 20-3 lead shortly after the end of the first quarter and a 34-17 lead at halftime. The loss precipitated a four game skid by the Giants, who have had a record of just 2-5 since being humiliated by their supposed equals.

3.  New York Jets 38, Oakland Raiders 0. In Week 6 the Raiders had shocked the world – as 14 point underdogs at home they actually won against the Philadelphia Eagles.  The following week, hosting the Jets, the spread has shrunk to only 6 points.  Most bettors weren’t tricked, but Gamblor had built up quite a bit of trust in the Raiders at that point in the season.  The Jets ended up demolishing the Raiders, gaining 316 yards on the ground and taking advantage of four turnovers (three by Jamarcus Russell) to shut them out at home.

2.  Jacksonville Jaguars 18, Buffalo Bills 15. The Bills had just fired their head coach Dick Jauron and appointed defensive coordinator Perry Fewell to manage the team.  Gamblor saw a spread that was much larger than it should have been (-8.5) and thought that Vegas was trying to scare money away from the Jaguars.  Everyone expected the Bills to show up to Jacksonville Municipal Stadium in complete disarray and be easily beaten by the relatively competent Jaguars.  Fewell responded by putting together a game plan with a defensive scheme that shut down Maurice Jones-Drew and an offense that featured a heavy dose of Terrell Owens, who caught 9 passes for 197 yards, including a 98 yard touchdown.  The Jaguars managed to score a late touchdown to win the game, but it wasn’t enough to cover the spread.

1.  Green Bay 17, Dallas Cowboys 7. This was Gamblor’s biggest bet of the year (so far) and it seemed like a great spot for the Cowboys.  Green Bay had just suffered a pair of demoralizing defeats – including a loss to the previously winless Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and injuries had decimated their offensive line.  Dallas, at 6-2, was expected to walk into Green Bay and easily walk away with a victory.  But the Packers defense really stepped up, sacking Tony Romo five times and forcing three turnovers.  A pair of scores in the fourth quarter was enough to secure the victory for them, and push Gamblor off the edge of its recent downslope.

As I’ve mentioned above, Gamblor has finally seen a few models crack the 95% barrier, and is going to make a huge bet on the Pittsburgh Steelers.  In fact, pretty much the entire bankroll is on the line this week.  The oddsmakers have decided to stop fucking around with their boring hedge spreads and are finally pushing the lines around a bit – which means that Gamblor is investing in a pair of favorites this week (finally!).

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
at
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
Gamblor’s Pick: Jacksonville (-3)
Bet Amount: None (Flip)
WHY IT’S WRONG: It’s a bad idea to pick against the Colts – they’re 9-4 against the spread this year.  But there’s no guarantee that they’ll put much effort into this game.  They’ve locked up the division, they’ve locked up a bye, and they’ve locked up home field advantage throughout the playoffs.  They have never been shy about sitting their star players prior to the playoffs, but since it’s never worked in the past, that all might change this year.  And even if the starters sit, the Colts roster is filled with players that are desperate to show off their skills – they won’t want to be responsible for the Colts losing their first game of the season, so they’ll put in 100% effort.  As far as the Jaguars go, they hate the Colts with a passion, but they’re really not in the same class – even against the second-stringers.
DALLAS COWBOYS
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NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
Gamblor’s Pick: Dallas (+7)
Bet Amount: $4.79 (Hedge)
WHY IT’S WRONG: I hate playing to trends, but Dallas’ woes in December have been incredibly consistent, and Wade Phillips is too stupid to figure out any way to keep up with the Saints.  Sean Payton will have the Cowboys defenders spinning around in circles, and even though Dallas has some offensive threats, they won’t be able to utilize them properly against New Orleans’ overachieving defense.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
at
BUFFALO BILLS
Gamblor’s Pick: Buffalo (+7)
Bet Amount: $30.31 (Hedge)
WHY I AGREE: I was originally picking in New England in this game, but their problems have grown too numerous to ignore.  Tom Brady isn’t healthy and Randy Moss is starting to revert to his childish tantrums, so their offense won’t be firing on all cylinders.  And ever since their loss to Indianapolis, the defense doesn’t feel like their coach believes in them.  I don’t believe Buffalo will be able to defeat the Patriots, even at home, but this game will turn out to be close enough that seven points should be enough.
ARIZONA CARDINALS
at
DETROIT LIONS
Gamblor’s Pick: Detroit (+12)
Bet Amount: $15.35 (Hedge)
WHY I AGREE: Arizona doesn’t have much to play for here.  Although they’ll be feeling a little bit of pressure from San Francisco, they’ll be in the playoffs either way.  And they’ve got an easy victory lined up at home against St. Louis next week, so they won’t overexert themselves to defeat Detroit.  It’s likely that Detroit will be able to keep this reasonably close, and the potential for a backdoor cover is wide open.
MIAMI DOLPHINS
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TENNESSEE TITANS
Gamblor’s Pick: Miami (+3)
Bet Amount: $9.57 (Hedge)
WHY I AGREE: Miami has been looking pretty tough lately, and Vince Young won’t be 100%, if he plays at all.  There are five teams ahead of Tennessee in the playoff hunt, but the loss against Indianapolis two weeks ago will have taken away a lot of the steam they’ve built up.
CLEVELAND BROWNS
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KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Gamblor’s Pick: Cleveland (+1.5)
Bet Amount: $10.77 (Hedge)
WHY I AGREE: Kansas City is beyond terrible.  Cleveland has been playing with heart recently, and although Brady Quinn doesn’t really bring much to the team, he’s got a lot more going on than Matt Cassel.  And Cleveland’s recently rediscovered ground game should be able to pound holes in the Chiefs’ defense, while it’s hard to imagine Kansas City will manage the same against Cleveland’s proud defenders.
HOUSTON TEXANS
at
SAINT LOUIS RAMS
Gamblor’s Pick: Houston (-6)
Bet Amount: None (Flip)
WHY IT’S WRONG: There’s no way I could possibly believe in St. Louis.  The one asset – Steven Jackson – is hurting, and they have no offense otherwise.  This line seems a bit short to me (and Gamblor agrees) so I’m worried that something is up with this one, but it falls into the gray area between hedge and flip bets and I’m glad – I wouldn’t be comfortable having money on either side in this game.
ATLANTA FALCONS
at
NEW YORK JETS
Gamblor’s Pick: Atlanta (+6)
Bet Amount: $3.99 (Hedge)
WHY IT’S WRONG: Atlanta has got some serious problems.  Normally a single running back doesn’t make that much of a difference (the offensive line is more important), but the lack of Michael Turner has really hurt the Falcons.  And without Matt Ryan, the Falcons will be completely shut down on offense.  Their defense is weak, and the Jets should be able to control the ball very well in this game.  I think they should be able to cover without too much trouble, though a backdoor cover is definitely something I’d be concerned about.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
at
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Gamblor’s Pick: San Francisco (+8)
Bet Amount: $15.75 (Hedge)
WHY I AGREE: I know the trip across the country is a long one, and the time change is a headache, but this entire season, San Francisco has only been beaten by more than seven points just once this season.  That game was against Atlanta – who boasts a similar offensive attack as the Eagles – but I don’t see San Francisco showing up flat to this game.  They’ve got a slim chance at making the playoffs, and they won’t squander the opportunity.
CHICAGO BEARS
at
BALTIMORE RAVENS
Gamblor’s Pick: Chicago (+11)
Bet Amount: $4.79 (Flip)
WHY IT’S WRONG: It’s impossible to pick Chicago at this point.  Their season is finished.
GREEN BAY PACKERS
at
PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Gamblor’s Pick: Pittsburgh (-2)
Bet Amount: $340.17 (Flip – 95%)
WHY IT’S WRONG: It kills me to pick against Gamblor on a bet of this magnitude – though agreeing didn’t do me much good in the Dallas game earlier this season.  Gamblor sees this spread as absolutely ridiculous – there’s no way Pittsburgh should be favored in this game.  The Steelers have lost five straight – including losses to Kansas City, Oakland, and Cleveland.  The Packers have been on fire lately, winning their last five games.  But they very easily could have lost to Chicago if not for Cutler’s horrible interception in the fourth quarter.  And although the  Packers are 4-2 on the road this season, look at who they’ve beaten:  St. Louis (1-12), Cleveland (2-11), Detroit (2-11), and Chicago (5-8).  But that’s not enough to convince me – without Polamalu, the Steelers have been unable to close out games.  I’m worried that I’m going to lose, and lose huge, with this one.
CINCINNATI BENGALS
at
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
Gamblor’s Pick: Cincinnati (+6.5)
Bet Amount: $33.90 (Hedge)
WHY I AGREE: The Chargers have been hot lately, but they’ve got to take a game off sooner or later.  The Bengals can’t afford to.  They’ll throw everything they’ve got at the Chargers, and their secondary might be the first to actually contain Vincent Jackson and Antonio Gates.
OAKLAND RAIDERS
at
DENVER BRONCOS
Gamblor’s Pick: Denver (-14)
Bet Amount: $37.49 (Flip Conflict – 90%)
WHY I AGREE: I’d never expect to say that Bruce Gradkowski is the heart and soul of any team, but as soon as I saw Jamarcus Russell’s name appear on the Gamecast last week (I was watching from inside the car), I knew my disaster parlay would be paying off.  The Raiders have no chance to win with him in the game, and they won’t bother to bring any effort to this contest.  They’ll probably sandbag the rest of their games just to ensure they’ve got a shot at getting a new quarterback in the draft.  Denver has a lot to play for here.  They won’t phone this one in.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
at
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
Gamblor’s Pick: Tampa Bay (+6.5)
Bet Amount: $2.79 (Hedge)
WHY IT’S WRONG: Standard procedure in Seattle games – take the favorite.  It’s only failed once so far this season.  I’ll be rounding this one down.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS
at
CAROLINA PANTHERS
Gamblor’s Pick: Carolina (+9)
Bet Amount: $6.58 (Hedge Conflict)
WHY I AGREE: The Vikings aren’t going anywhere.  With a two game lead on the Packers and an edge in the tiebreaker, they’ve got the division taken care of.  They won’t be able to catch New Orleans, so there’s really nothing left for them to play for.  Carolina might not even start Jake Delhomme, which should help them control the ball a lot better, though I’m not really sure how they’ll manage to catch Minnesota in this one – but my gut tells me they will.
NEW YORK GIANTS
at
WASHINGTON REDSKINS
Gamblor’s Pick: Washington (+3)
Bet Amount: $7.78 (Hedge Conflict)
WHY I AGREE: The Giants seem overrated at this point.  The Redskins would really, really, really love to knock them out of the playoff picture, and might actually have the chops to do it at this point.  Their victory over the Raiders will have given them momentum, while the Giants are still licking their wounds from their loss to Philadelphia.  Don’t be too shocked in the Redskins pull off the upset here.

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Week

Zack

Gamblor

Weighted Wins

Weighted Picks

Weighted Win %

Profit

Win

Lose

Push

Win

Lose

Push

1

7

9

-

9

7

-

1339

1727

77.5%

$155.71

2

9

7

-

11

5

-

970

1292

75.1%

$98.97

3

9

7

-

6

10

-

607

1552

39.1%

-$61.75

4

8

6

-

5

9

-

288

963

29.9%

-$70.33

5

6

8

-

6

8

-

655

1217

53.8%

$15.46

6

7

7

-

8

6

-

625

1231

50.8%

-$10.53

7

8

4

1

3

9

1

246

1161

21.2%

-$127.43

8

3

10

-

9

7

-

709

1548

45.8%

-$34.43

9

7

6

-

10

3

-

1152

1609

71.6%

$119.67

10

7

8

-

8

7

-

660

2110

31.3%

-$159.21

11

8

8

-

8

8

-

745

1614

46.2%

-$29.81

12

7

8

1

6

9

-

496

1230

40.3%

-$59.66

13

4

12

-

7

9

-

482

1037

46.5%

-$20.55

14

8

8

-

7

9

-

581

1573

36.9%

-$92.19

Total

98

108

2

100

106

2

9555

19864

48.1%

-$276.08

For legality purposes, this website does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.

NFL Picks: Week 14 (updated)

UPDATE:  Hooray!  Gamblor got off to a great start this week, nailing its second-largest bet as Cleveland dropped Pittsburgh last night.  The 10.5 points that Atlanta is getting against the Saints has tempted it into a moderate hedge bet on the Falcons, and the drift in the spread in the Kansas City game means it has flipped its bet to Kansas City – for a pretty sizeable amount.  It no longer has any interest in Detroit, and the extra half-point has convinced it to throw away a little more money on the Seahawks.  Son of Gamblor, which will be getting an off-book test run in Vegas this week, likes Dallas, Chicago, Tampa, Detroit, and Jacksonville in that order.  Good luck to everyone this week!

Sigh.  For the fourth week in a row, and the sixth out of seven, Gamblor lost money.  It only dropped $21 on a weighted win percentage of 46.5%, but this losing streak is seriously getting old.  What’s worse is that Gamblor hasn’t bet money on a single favorite since Jacksonville in Week 11, and hasn’t seen a 90% flip bet since Dallas in Week 10.  And to really pile it on, it was a fantastic weekend for the sportsbooks, as Detroit, Miami, Cleveland, and Washington all covered as underdogs and Oakland, Jacksonville, and Arizona pulled off surprise victories.  Gamblor is designed (in theory) to profit alongside the books, which makes it doubly disappointing to have lost money last week.  I hadn’t planned on pulling the trigger on Son of Gamblor until the beginning of next year, but I’m tempted to do so just to keep from having to throw money at underdogs every week.  I guess I shouldn’t complain too much because despite it’s troubles lately the computer is still in the black over its lifetime, but what’s the fun in taking the points in every single game and spending every Sunday agonizing over mistakes by guys like Josh Freeman and Ryan Fitzpatrick?

I’ve made no secret about my hatred of the Seahawks, which is driven entirely by my gambling losses on them this year.  It’s funny how spiteful I can get.  In particular, when it becomes clear that a favorite I’ve bet on isn’t going to cover the spread, I’ll start rooting for them to lose the game outright.  Why?  Because fuck them, that’s why.  And that attitude extends towards the stock market as well.  Once I’ve sold a stock, I want to see it take a dive into the toilet – just so I don’t feel like I missed out on a good thing.  It’s petty and childish, but I can’t seem to stop myself.  A few years ago I bought stock in a Canadian gold mining company called Rubicon (RBY) on a tip from a mining lawyer friend in Johannesburg.  It’s done very well for me (even spinning off a pair of adorable little baby corporations – of which I received a chunk of stock; kind of like getting a free prop bet from the house) and in November I sold it all off in two phases – at an average share price of $4.22.  Shortly after I sold out, it climbed all the way up to $4.50.  It has since sunk back down to $4.09.  Neither of these facts should matter to me in the least, but of course they do.  Instead of worrying about how much money I might have made if I’d held on, or how much money I saved by walking away from the table, I should be thinking about how I’m going to reinvest the money I did make.  Which brings me to my feature for the week:

(To watch this video, right-click and hit play)

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When I originally programmed Gamblor, I was using three-letter abbreviations for each team.  I’ve learned how to code things a bit better now, so this isn’t really necessary anymore, but I still use the abbreviations for bookkeeping purposes.  The scheme is pretty simple.  For teams where the home city (or state) consists of a single word (such as Atlanta, Buffalo, or Cleveland), I simply use the first three letters (ATL, BUF, CLE).  For teams where the first word of the home city is “New” (New England Patriots, New Orleans Saints), I use the first letter of each word (NEP, NOS).  For teams where the first word of the city is “Saint” or “San” (San Francisco, Saint Louis) I use the first and last letter of the first word and the first letter of the second word (SNF, STL).  The only irregular forms are Tampa Bay (TAM)  and Green Bay (GNB).  Since I’m looking for new places to invest the profits from my sale of Rubicon, I thought it would be a fun diversion to take a look at all the stocks that share the same ticker symbol as the team abbreviations that I use, and choose five to invest in.

ATL:  Atlantia Spa.  No information available.  Might be out of business.

ARI:  Apollo Commercial Real Estate.  Over the last three months, this real estate investment trust has drifted downwards by a single point from $18.50 to $17.62, but you’d have to be crazy to invest in commercial real estate with the imminent crash that’s on its way.  No thank you.

BAL:  IPath DJ-AIG Cotton.  I’m not even sure what this is, or what exchange it’s on.  Is it a commodity?  Baled cotton?  Beats the hell out of me, and with 29 more teams to go, I’m not going to take the time to find out.

BUF:  Minrad International, Inc.  Again, I’m not really sure what this company is – though it is listed on the American Stock Exchange and has a share price of $0.19, and there’s no trading taking place.

CAR:  Avis Budget Group.  Aha!  These guys rent cars.  But it’s not a traditional stock as far as I can tell, the data only goes back five days, which is bizarre for something that supposedly has a market capitalization of $1.2 billion and a volume of almost 2.5 million.

CHI:  Calamos Convertible Opportunities & Income Fund.   Ugh.  A junk bond fund, and a very poorly performing one at that.  I’ve never been a fan of letting other people gamble my money away.

CIN: Cintra Conc. Infra. De Transpo.  Given the direction the stimulus funds are flowing, I’ve thought that transportation and infrastructure companies might be a good investment in the next couple of years, but this stock isn’t domestic.  Nor is it tradeable for a mere mortal like me.

CLE:  No exact matches.  There’s a couple of Carlisle stocks and a China Prosperous Clean Energy Corporation, but nothing that’s listed on the American exchanges.

DAL:  Delta Air Lines.  I actually looked at this stock a while back and gave it some thought.  It’s a big stock, it has been drifting slowly upwards over the last sixth months, and if I can think of reason why it might do well over the next year, it will be a serious contender.

DEN:  No exact matches.  A few foreign stocks, and nothing enticing.

DET:  Same as Denver.

GNB:  GNB Financial Services.  No history, no reported trade volume, and sold on the over-the-counter bulletin board market.  Very mysterious.

HOU:  No exact match.  Looks like a few energy stocks traded on foreign exchanges.

IND:  ING Groep Perpetual Debt.  Sounds about as profitable as giving your money to “Black Hole Investments, LLC.”  Looks like it, too.

JAC: Jap. Acc. Rtn. II Red SHS.  I’m not even sure what all those prefixes mean, and Yahoo can’t seem to tell me.  Japanese Accelerated Return?  This is a lot like IND and CHI, in that it takes a huge dive in October of 2008 and bottoms out in March of 2009.  Do these have something to do with the mortgage crisis?

KAN:  Medca Japan.  Another foreign stock that won’t come to play in the U.S. markets.

MIA:  No exact matches.

MIN:  MFS Intermediate Income Trust.  Like those other investment groups, except without bottoming out in March.  Looks like they mostly buy mortgage-backed securities, which makes me wonder how they escaped the beating the other guys took.  There’s no way in hell I’d buy one of these things, though – I’d make more (or lose less) money gambling on football, and have more fun doing it.

NEP:  China North East Petroleum.  Ah, finally, a real company.  This one is a serious contender.  I don’t ever feel like oil is a bad investment because the world is definitely going to run out of  oil someday, so the price will eventually go up in the long term no matter what.  It’s got a great Price/Earnings ratio (7.70), and even though it’s pretty small (total capitalization of $150 million) it’s trading at a pretty brisk rate.  The downside is that it’s already gone up 300% this year, so I might be arriving late to the party on this one.

NOS:  No exact matches.

NYG:  Nayarit Gold, Incorporated.  A gold and silver mining company.  If I hadn’t just finished having so much fun with Rubicon, I’d give it some thought.  But I’m done with gold for the time being.

NYJ:  Mercury Recycling Group.  Few details.  Traded on the Berlin exchange.  Is this one of those stocks that’s “poised to explode” that Alicia and Rachel keep sending me spam about?

OAK:  Oak Ridge Financial Services.  By now you know my thoughts on these sorts of guys.

PHI:  Philippine Long Distance Telephone Company.  Despite its name, this actually seems like it might be a pretty solid company.  It’s big ($10.5 billion) and its shares have more or less steadily increased from $22 to $56 in the last five years.  It looks like they’ve kept up relatively well with technology, so they’re definitely on the shortlist.

PIT:  Pittler Maschinen.  Looks like a German tool company. No dice.

SND:  Morgan Stanley Plus.  Ha ha ha ha ha.  I’d sooner leave my money in a room with Ronald Bartel, two quarts of gasoline, and a lighter than I’d trust it in the hands of these guys.

SNF:  Spain Fund, Incorporated.  Same as all the other useless investment funds.

SEA:  Claymore Delta Global Shipping.  Now here’s an interesting question.  Do I believe that the economy is going to start picking up anytime soon?  This fund tracks the Delta Global Shipping index and is sitting right at a nice value – $13 per share.  It’s got a decent P/E of 10.19, and as bizarre as it sounds (and as dirty as it would make me feel), it might be one of the few ways to capitalize on global warming. Plus, it’s a nice calm stock, which might be nice after the adventures I’ve had in the last few years.

STL:  Sterling Bancorp.  Too many banks gambled too heavily on shitty mortgages and mortgate-backed securities, and they’re on their way out as an institution.  Just look at this company’s performance over the last five years.  I’d like to invest in a company that’s run by competent businessmen who manufacture products or perform services of actual value, instead of a bunch of arrogant jackasses who think they can create more money buy simply moving other money around in circles.

TAM:  TAM S.A.  A Brazilian air carrier.  They’re okay, I guess, but I’d be more likely to invest in Delta just because it’s more familiar.

TEN:  Tenneco, Incorporated.  Interesting.  These fellows manufacture auto parts, but their stock follows the same exact profile as the shitty investment groups from above.  They’ve started off well this year but have since gone flat, and it looks like they’re losing money, so it’s hard to envision a particularly bright future for them.

WAS:  No exact matches.

Wow, that wasn’t nearly as much fun as I thought it would be.  I can’t say there’s anything here that really catches my fancy.  I think it’s most likely that I’ll invest in the Global Shipping Index for a modest amount, because I think the world economy will pick up modestly in the near future, and I don’t think there’s too much potential for it to collapse.

Here are the computer’s picks for the week.  Once again, it’s enamored of underdogs, which is a bit tiresome.  When I update later on this week, I’ll pass on Son of Gambor’s favorites as well.  Oh, by the way, don’t listen to my own opinion on these things – I was 4-12 last week.  You’d do better tossing a coin.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS
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CLEVELAND BROWNS
Gamblor’s Pick: Cleveland (+10)
Bet Amount: $44.22 (Hedge)
WHY IT’S WRONG: Last week I expected Pittsburgh to toy with the Raiders, and they did – so much so that they ended up losing the game.  Their playoff hopes are in jeopardy, and when they come into Cleveland they’re not going to take any chances – especially after seeing the Browns almost sneak back into their game against the Chargers.  Pittsburgh won’t let up in this one.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
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ATLANTA FALCONS
Gamblor’s Pick: Atlanta (+6)
Bet Amount: $15.40 (Hedge)
WHY IT’S WRONG: New Orleans has done a very poor job covering the spread lately.  They’re just 2-4 in their last six games.  But Atlanta’s defense is terrible, and it won’t matter whether Ryan plays or not.  New Orleans is just too strong to pick against.
GREEN BAY PACKERS
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CHICAGO BEARS
Gamblor’s Pick: Chicago (+3)
Bet Amount: $11.45 (Flip and Hedge)
WHY IT’S WRONG: My only hope for Gamblor on this one is that this line is a trap.  Green Bay has looked unbeatable since they beat Dallas four weeks ago, and I don’t expect that to change against a disintegrating Chicago team.
CAROLINA PANTHERS
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NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Gamblor’s Pick: Carolina (+13.5)
Bet Amount: $20.93 (Hedge)
WHY I AGREE: Tom Brady ain’t right.  He just had a baby boy and his finger hurts.  I doubt that New England is going to lose this game, but they won’t be able to blow Carolina out.
DENVER BRONCOS
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INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Gamblor’s Pick: Denver (+7)
Bet Amount: $14.41 (Hedge)
WHY I AGREE: Indianapolis doesn’t care about winning these last few games.  They probably will, but chances are it won’t be by a huge score.  All they care about right now is going into the playoffs with a healthy squad.
BUFFALO BILLS
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KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Gamblor’s Pick: Kansas City (+1)
Bet Amount: $30.60 (Hedge)
WHY IT’S WRONG: In these situations, Gamblor defaults to the away team with its hedge bets.  I’m glad that’s how it’s programmed – Kansas City is one of the worst teams in the league this year, while at least Buffalo has some potential.  There’s no home field advantage for the Chiefs in this one – who’s going to head out into an empty, freezing stadium to watch a 3-9 team play against a 4-8 one?
NEW YORK JETS
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TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
Gamblor’s Pick: Tampa Bay (+3)
Bet Amount: None (Flip)
WHY IT’S WRONG: The Jets have a lot to play for – the Buccaneers don’t.  I certainly don’t expect that Tampa will lie down for them, but they won’t have any reason to get charged up for this game.
MIAMI DOLPHINS
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JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
Gamblor’s Pick: Miami (+3)
Bet Amount: $22.51 (Hedge)
WHY I AGREE: I can’t get behind Jacksonville this season.  I’ve been wrong about them a lot, but even now, I just don’t believe in them.
DETROIT LIONS
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BALTIMORE RAVENS
Gamblor’s Pick: Detroit (+13.5)
Bet Amount: $2.57
WHY I AGREE: Baltimore isn’t what they used to be.  It’s impossible to see them losing this game, but they’ll be conservative enough on offense that they won’t be able to cover a spread this large.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
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HOUSTON TEXANS
Gamblor’s Pick: Seattle (+6.5)
Bet Amount: $32.97 (Hedge)
WHY IT’S WRONG: In every single game this year when they’ve been underdogs, the Seahawks have lost and failed to cover the spread.  In every single game (except for against Arizona in Week 6) when they’ve been favorites, they’ve won and covered the spread.  In layman’s terms, that means that if you’d always bet on the favorite in Seahawks games this season, you’d be 11-1 right now.  Guess what I expect to happen yet again this week?
CINCINNATI BENGALS
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MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Gamblor’s Pick: Cincinnati (+6.5)
Bet Amount: $41.26 (Hedge)
WHY I AGREE: Minnesota had some problems against Arizona, and I think they’ll still be reeling.  There’s not much for them to play for – Arizona, Philadelphia and Dallas won’t catch them and they won’t catch New Orleans.  So their playoff position is pretty much settled.  Cincinnati, on the other hand, will be attempting to make a statement.  I’m happy with Gamblor’s choice on this one.
SAINT LOUIS RAMS
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TENNESSEE TITANS
Gamblor’s Pick: St. Louis (+13)
Bet Amount: $11.45 (Hedge)
WHY IT’S WRONG: It’s a lot of points to cover.  And Tennessee doesn’t have such a high-powered offense.  Late last season, Tennessee managed to pile the points on against Cleveland in a cover that surprised a lot of people.  I’m expecting the same result here.
WASHINGTON REDSKINS
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OAKLAND RAIDERS
Gamblor’s Pick: Oakland (+1)
Bet Amount: $51.13 (Hedge)
WHY I AGREE: Washington just had their hearts broken last week in a game they really should have won.  Oakland pulled off an amazing victory against the Superbowl champs.  As hard as it is to believe in the Raiders, they should be in good shape to win this game against a Redskins team that has got to travel across the entire country.
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
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DALLAS COWBOYS
Gamblor’s Pick: San Diego (+3)
Bet Amount: $0.59
WHY IT’S WRONG: Gamblor rarely has any interest in betting on San Diego, but the one time it does, I don’t agree.  And it’s simply based on pure contrariness.  Everyone in the country sees a San Diego team that’s on fire walking into Dallas and beating up on a Cowboys team that regularly chokes in December.  And yet Vegas treats this game like it’s a toss-up, with only the home field advantage as the difference in this game.  Remind me – where did they get the money to pay for those hotel foundations again?
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
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NEW YORK GIANTS
Gamblor’s Pick: Philadelphia (+1)
Bet Amount: $2.37 (Hedge)
WHY IT’S WRONG: Andy Reid will fuck this one up.
ARIZONA CARDINALS
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SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
Gamblor’s Pick: San Francisco (+3.5)
Bet Amount: $8.69 (Hedge)
WHY I AGREE: Arizona managed to lock down the division with their huge win against Minnesota last week.  They won’t worry too much about San Francisco.  The 49ers don’t have much shot at making the playoffs – but they won’t give up until it’s final.

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Week

Zack

Gamblor

Weighted Wins

Weighted Picks

Weighted Win %

Profit

Win

Lose

Push

Win

Lose

Push

1

7

9

-

9

7

-

1339

1727

77.5%

$155.71

2

9

7

-

11

5

-

970

1292

75.1%

$98.97

3

9

7

-

6

10

-

607

1552

39.1%

-$61.75

4

8

6

-

5

9

-

288

963

29.9%

-$70.33

5

6

8

-

6

8

-

655

1217

53.8%

$15.46

6

7

7

-

8

6

-

625

1231

50.8%

-$10.53

7

8

4

1

3

9

1

246

1161

21.2%

-$127.43

8

3

10

-

9

7

-

709

1548

45.8%

-$34.43

9

7

6

-

10

3

-

1152

1609

71.6%

$119.67

10

7

8

-

8

7

-

660

2110

31.3%

-$159.21

11

8

8

-

8

8

-

745

1614

46.2%

-$29.81

12

7

8

1

6

9

-

496

1230

40.3%

-$59.66

13

4

12

-

7

9

-

482

1037

46.5%

-$20.55

Total

86

88

2

86

88

2

8492

17254

49.1%

-$183.89

For legality purposes, this website does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.

NFL Picks: Week 13 (updated)

UPDATE:  The line in the Arizona game finally got posted – the Vikings are favorites by 3 points.  Whisenhunt says that who’s starting at quarterback will be a game-time decision, but it seems pretty clear from this line that Vegas doesn’t believe Warner will be playing.  I don’t either, frankly – it would be a very hard game to win even with him, and it’s certainly not one that they need.  The computer has become a big fan of Miami now that the line moved down, so that’s now it’s biggest bet of the week (gulp).  But overall it’s a pretty quiet week, with just $200 on the line and almost exclusively underdogs (yet again).  For what it’s worth, the new model (I call him SON OF GAMBLOR!) is finished and while I won’t be making any bets on it this year, its favorite plays this week are Tennessee, Arizona (even with the new spread), Cleveland, Jacksonville, and Detroit.

Last week started off pretty well, as the computer won money on Thanksgiving and in the morning games on Sunday.  But in the afternoon things turned sour in a hurry.  Gamblor missed its top bet of the week with Chicago, Vince Young’s spectacular game-ending drive for Tennessee forced a push on its third-largest bet, and on Monday night the Patriots got pounded by the Saints for yet another loss on its second-largest bet.  The overall results for the week were a weighted win percentage of 40.3% and a loss of $60.  Gamblor is now in the red for a total of $163 for the season, which is pretty disappointing.  I’ll elaborate further once we hit the playoffs, but the biggest problem it is suffering is that the distribution of hedge bets to flip bets is way, way off from where it should be.  Faithful readers may have noticed a serious lack of bets on favorites this year, which is a symptom of this.  The flip bets are performing perfectly well (even including the catastrophic Dallas loss to Green Bay a few weeks ago, they’re running at about 57%, which is right on target).  Unfortunately, the hedge bets, which were supposed to be an entertaining diversion and a way of smoothing out some of the peaks and valleys of the flip bets, are dominating in a way they’re not supposed to.  As I said before I’ll explain further at the end of the season.  All I can do now is cross my fingers and hope the computer manages to turn things around before it pisses all its previous season’s winnings away.

Football players are some of the finest physical specimens that humanity has to offer.  They might not be the brightest bulbs, but as the fastest, the strongest, and the fittest members of our society, they are the kings of the jungle.  As such, they usually have their first choice of the women.  Joe Namath was famous for his conquests (and possibly even more famous for one particular failure), Travis Henry has had children with eleven different women, the character Wooderson in Dazed and Confused could have easily been based on Chris Collinsworth*, and Tom Brady’s romance with supermodel Gisele Bundschen was so aggressively documented by the paparazzi that a pair of photographers ended up accusing the couple’s bodyguards of shooting at them during their second wedding ceremony in Costa Rica.  But players have better things to do than to hang out at fashion shows chasing models, and the nightclub scene is fraught with perils of its own, as so many players have discovered.  Are there any nice, fun, safe places that a lusty athlete can visit to find beautiful and libertine women in an atmosphere of relative safety, security, and privacy?

(To watch this video, right-click and hit play)

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This last week, the sports world has been on fire with speculation about the circumstances of Tiger Woods’ accident and whether or not his wife, Swedish model Elin Nordegren, followed up her accusations of infidelity by smashing the back window of his SUV with a golf club.  There’s no defense for Tiger’s behavior (which seems to have been an open secret that a sympathetic press cheerfully guarded until the story became just too salacious to willfully overlook), but chasing after someone with a four-iron is not an adult way to settle an argument when a quiet phone call to a divorce lawyer would suffice quite nicely.**  It’s an unfortunate feature of the world these women inhabit, but sadly, building an entire facade of self-worth based around fleeting physical attractiveness is very damaging to the psyche.  Models are rarely healthy mentally.  The calm, collected, cerebral nature of Cindy Crawford and Heidi Klum is far less common than the cellphone-throwing assaults of Naomi Campbell or the cocaine-fueled antics of Kate Moss.  Amidst the daddy issues, body issues, and insecurities that often come as a curse to accompany great beauty is a simple paradox.  As the old saying goes: smart, beautiful, sane.  Pick two.  You can’t have all three. Which brings me to my feature for the week. 

The Top 5 Psycho Playboy Models Who Are Dating NFL Players

Warning: Do not click on the images unless you’d like to visit some seriously NSFW galleries.  You’re not AT work?  Lucky you!  And remember, these are ranked according to the level of crazy, not attractiveness.

kendra5.  Kendra Wilkinson. Based on her sunny disposition and willing accessibility to fans, Kendra Wilkinson seems like a genuine sweetheart.  The San Diego native made her first appearance at the Playboy mansion as one of the “painted girls” at Hefner’s birthday party, lived in the mansion as one of Hefner’s girlfriends and charmed viewers of the reality show The Girls Next Door well enough to earn her own spinoff show, Kendra.  Kendra is a faithful Chargers fan who married NFL receiver Hank Baskett in June and is due to give birth to her first child in December.  Baskett was best-known as an Eagles receiver but has recently been engaged by the Indianapolis Colts to help fill a void in their roster caused by an injury to Anthony Gonzalez.  Unfortunately, sweetness aside, Kendra also seems incredibly dim – so much so that she makes Kelly Bundy seem like a Rhodes scholar by comparison.  Hugh Hefner described Kendra as having a “distinctly unintellectual charm” and possessing a “dazed personality and a limited vocabulary.”  When confronted with any situation more mentally challenging than, say, making dinner reservations at the Olive Garden, Kendra’s laudable response is to get drunk and cheerfully take her top off.

jennifer4.  Jennifer Walcott. There has got to be something seriously wrong with this girl.  I mean, there has to be, right? Nobody could possibly be so perfect physically without having some terrible psychological issues lurking below the surface.  But if there are, she’s hiding them incredibly well.  Walcott was a cheerleader and a dancer while growing up in Ohio, and started modeling in 2000, eventually being selected as Playmate of the Month in August of 2001.  She writes poetry (good poetry, apparently, since she won a Readers Digest contest), volunteers at the Ronald McDonald house,  and is the spokesmodel for a wide array of products.  She’s married to former Chicago Bears safety Adam Archuleta.  So where does the crazy come in?  It’s a stretch, but first off, the pair have chosen to live in Scottdale, Arizona.  For those unfamiliar with this “city” (it’s an edgecity of Phoenix that gets snippy about its identity the same way Anaheim does about its relationship to LA), the best description of it I’ve heard is that if you spend too long living there, you turn into Cindy McCain.  And second, Jennifer is a health nut, so much so that she chose to deliver her first child organically – i.e. without the use of drugs or painkillers.  I’ve never personally experienced the pain of childbirth, but I hear it’s pretty bad.  She’s taken this organic approach even further by making her own formula with all-natural ingredients.  That’s not necessarily crazy, but when you deprive your child of his legitimate access to such a perfect pair of “birthrights” and feed him a mixture of whey, lactose, protobiotics, and cod liver oil instead, I think it definitely qualifies as cruel.

heather3.  Heather Kozar. Ah, now we’re onto much more solid ground.  Heather Kozar was the Playmate of the Month in January of 1998, the cover girl in June of 1999, and was later that year voted as the Playmate of the Year.  She’s an Ohio native, which might explain how she ended up getting involved with Heisman hopeful quarterback Tim Couch, who was drafted first in the 1999 NFL draft by the Cleveland Browns.  The two were together until the unwelcome arrival of UCLA prospect Cade McNown in the Midwest, as a draft pick of the Chicago Bears.  McNown, in a pretty major violation of the most basic tenets of the guy code, made a concerted effort steal her away.  He showered her with attention in the form of phone calls and flowers, and even had a Porsche delivered to her as a gift.  Sadly for Heather, she fell prey to McNown’s charms and ran off with him for a while, before he lost interest in her and started chasing another Playmate of the Year, this time 2001’s Brande Roderick, who happened to be Hefner’s girlfriend at the time.  McNown carted his new prospect off to Mexico for a getaway and was subsequently banned from the Playboy Mansion forever, while Kozar was forced to crawl back to Couch on hands and knees (which turned out to be a surprisingly good strategy for ensuring she’d be received).  Kozar’s indiscretions can be chalked up to naivety, and eventually she and Tim Couch were married and have a pair of children, which is two more than the number of football careers shared between Couch and McNown.

playmate carmela decesare2.  Carmela DeCesare. While the blondes on this list have done an admirable job of perpetuating their stereotype as airheaded bimbos, no other Playmate has done a better job of bostering the reputation of Latinas as feisty and hot-tempered.  DeCesare is actually a mix of Puerto Rican and Italian, and began her modeling career as a Playboy Cyber Girl before graduating to a full pictoral as Playmate of the Month in April of 2002.  In 2004 she began dating Jeff Garcia, who played his best seasons for the San Francisco 49ers but also spent time in Cleveland, Detroit, Philadelphia, and Tampa Bay, as well as a short stint in Oakland (given that Garcia’s career competion percentage is 61.5% and has thrown 161 touchdowns to 83 interceptions, WHY THE FUCK DID THEY CUT THIS GUY???).  That fall, she was hauled into court on misdemeanor charges of assault against a girl names Kristen Hine, a side dish for Garcia to DeCesare’s main course, in a Cleveland bar. The compaint alleged that DeCesare was dancing on a table in a nightclub called…wait for it…Tramp before she unleashed a karate kick at Hine’s head .  Honestly, I can’t do this story justice, you have to go here and here to read some of the hilarious details of the testimony in which the judge characterized both sides as “losers.”  Though DeCesare was acquitted of the assault charges, she was found guilty of an even more awesome misdemeanor in the realm of psycho ex-girlfriend stalking – violating a restraining order.  Garcia and DeCesare are currently married and have a pair of children, so it sounds like her wild days are behind her.

playmate tila tequila1.  Tila Tequila. Sheesh.  Where to begin?  No other woman on this list could possibly compete with Tila Tequila when it comes to straight-up histrionic personality disorder – she clearly stands out as a result of her relentless, desperate, and shameless pleas for attention.  Tila Tequila first appeared as a Playboy Cyber Girl of the Week in April of 2002, and became the first Asian Cyber Girl of the Month.  She attained fame via Myspace for obtaining more “friends” than anyone else on the network – a total currently standing at 3.9 million connections.  Her burgeoning fame and blossoming music career led to further pictorals in the magazine, as well as her own reality dating show (A Shot at Love) where she proclaimed herself to be bisexual and proceded to choose a potential mate from a selection of both men and women.  As far as her NFL connection, it was hard to ignore the incident this fall with San Diego Chargers defensive lineman Shawne Merriman where he allegedly choked and restrained her.  Shortly thereafter, she described herself as “suicidal,”  and after filing a $1.5 million lawsuit against Merriman, engaged in a rambling, drunken rant that pretty much defies description but included her stripping and describing herself as an “angel” who will “save the world.”  Then, of course, a sextape clip emerged.  Her own lawyer even described her as having “gone over the edge.”   Hopefully she’s getting the help she needs, because honestly, it seems like a pretty big job, and our economy could use the boost.

Gamblor’s picks this week…well, what can I say?  It’s the same hedge-heavy garbage it’s been spitting out all season.  I’m very optimistic about the new geography-adjusted model, which I won’t actually launch until next season.  In any event, if Kurt Warner plays and Arizona is favored, that will easily be Gamblor’s biggest pick of the week.

*For what it’s worth, I think Collinsworth is doing a terrific job with his commentary on Sunday nights.  I wish Chris would flay Joe Buck alive, wear his skin for a costume, and take over the Fox broadcasts on Sundays.  The brainless drones that run the Fox Network would probably be too stupid to notice the difference except for the sudden increase in ratings.

**To imagine what this telephone conversation would have looked like in real life, just picture a guy in a suit sitting at a desk surrounded by a bunch of law books.  He answers a phone, listens for a few seconds, and then his eyes start spinning around in his head like the wheels in a slot machine before landing on a pair of triple $$$’s.

NEW YORK JETS
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BUFFALO BILLS
Gamblor’s Pick: Buffalo (+3)
Bet Amount: $16.42 (Hedge)
WHY IT’S WRONG: For two weeks in a row, interim coach Perry Fewell has managed to coax a few heartbeats out of what everyone assumed was a headless corpse.  But aside from their win over Miami, the Bills surrendered a late loss to Jacksonville (!) and dropped games to Tennessee and Houston since they last won.  The Bills pulled off a surprise upset of the Jets in Week 6, but that won’t happen again here.  Last week’s win over Carolina gave new life to Rex Ryan’s Jets, and this game is being played in Toronto, which negates any home field advantage that the Bills would have had.  The short spread makes me a little nervous, but the Jets will be hungry for revenge and should have little trouble dealing with the Bills.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
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ATLANTA FALCONS
Gamblor’s Pick: Atlanta (+5.5)
Bet Amount: $11.92 (Hedge)
WHY I AGREE: Without Matt Ryan, it’s hard to believe that Atlanta can compete with Philadelphia.  But I also feel like this line is overcompensating for his absence.  Philadelphia nearly got beat by the Redskins last week, and that game will have taken more out of them than they would have liked.  Plus, they’ve got to travel to New York next week for an important divisional game against the Giants on Sunday night.  They’ll be distracted here.  Atlanta, on the other hand, will be stepping up their play to compensate for Ryan’s absence.  They have absolutely refused to go down without a fight in the last several weeks, and they should give the Eagles a tough game here.
SAINT LOUIS RAMS
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CHICAGO BEARS
Gamblor’s Pick: St. Louis (+9.5)
Bet Amount: $18.96 (Hedge)
WHY I AGREE: Gamblor thinks this line is about right, but it looks way too big to me.  Certainly the Rams are terrible, but the Bears are falling to pieces.  They’re just 1-5 against the spread in their last six games, so why would anyone trust them to cover nine points against a team that is 4-2 against the spread in the same stretch?  The Bears will try to run the ball with Forte, just as the Rams will try to do with Steven Jackson.  Neither will have a tremendous amount of success.  Not too many points will be scored in this one – certainly not enough to justify a spread of greater than a touchdown.
DETROIT LIONS
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CINCINNATI BENGALS
Gamblor’s Pick: Detroit (+13)
Bet Amount: $12.12 (Hedge and Flip)
WHY IT’S WRONG: Cleveland’s defense proved themselves far too stout to let a middling offense like the Bengals’ run away with things.  As we saw so vividly on Thanksgiving, Detroit’s isn’t.  Carson Palmer should have an easy time distributing the ball amongst his receivers and backs, as Detroits secondary provides no more coverage than the lovely Mrs. Walcott’s bikini does here.  And Cincinnati will be able to pick off Stafford at least once, so the Bengals’ offense will have some short fields to work with.  13 points is a lot fo cover, but I think Cincinnati will pull it off.
TENNESSEE TITANS
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INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Gamblor’s Pick: Tennessee (+6.5)
Bet Amount: $15.83 (Flip)
WHY I AGREE: Indianapolis has nothing to play for in this game.  They’ve got their division locked up, they’ve got a three game edge for homefield advantage throughout the playoffs, and all they really care about right now is avoiding any catastrophic injuries to any of their star players.  They’ll come out for the first few series’, but if Tennessee ever manages to take a lead, the Colts won’t bother to chase them.  And if the Colts jump ahead, they won’t overexert themselves to keep Tennessee from climbing back into the game.  Conversely, Tennessee is one game away from getting back to .500 and erasing the disastrous start to their season.  Last week’s amazing comeback will have energized the team.  They’re starting to think playoffs, and the Colts don’t have any particular reason to deny them their dream.
DENVER BRONCOS
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KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Gamblor’s Pick: Kansas City (+5)
Bet Amount: $14.86 (Hedge)
WHY I AGREE: Denver will really want to win this game.  They’re chasing San Diego and need to win out in their divisional games to get to the next level of the tiebreaker (most victories in common games).  But unfortunately for the Broncos, Kansas City has got a style of play that will match up well against them.  The teams will trade short drives and occasional field goals, and this will turn into a quarterback duel (of sorts) that won’t be decided until the very end.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
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WASHINGTON REDSKINS
Gamblor’s Pick: Washington (+9.5)
Bet Amount: $7.62 (Hedge)
WHY IT’S WRONG: The Saints seem completely unstoppable at this point.  If the Patriots can’t hang with them, how the hell can the Redskins?  As good as they are, the Saints have struggled a bit on the road.  And the Redskins can play pass defense – after all, they held down the Cowboys just fine.  But I think ultimately the Saints have just too many weapons.  The spread is a half point too small, and the Saints are just too hot to pick against.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
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CAROLINA PANTHERS
Gamblor’s Pick: Tampa Bay (+5.5)
Bet Amount: $27.55 (Hedge)
WHY I AGREE: The Panthers really put in a great effort to salvage their season, but coming up so short against the Jets will have taken all of the wind right out of their sails.  Tampa, on the other hand, seems like they’re actually having fun again.  They know they’ll be picking up some help in the draft, they’ve got nothing to lose by taking chances on big plays, and they’re nice and relaxed.  With the pressure off, they should be able to do well against the frustrated Panthers.
HOUSTON TEXANS
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JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
Gamblor’s Pick: Houston (Pk)
Bet Amount: $0.78 (Hedge)
WHY I AGREE: Why on earth is this spread so low?  I know that Jacksonville has a better record, but I feel like Houston is a far superior team.  I’ll be rounding this down, of course, but I don’t see Jacksonville being able to compete with Houston on any level.  Yes, I know they’ve already beaten the Texans – in Houston.  I just don’t see it happening again.
OAKLAND RAIDERS
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PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Gamblor’s Pick: Oakland (+14.5)
Bet Amount: $23.65 (Hedge)
WHY IT’S WRONG: This is a tough one to call.  Pittsburgh has an ancient rivalry with the Raiders and loves to beat them, but the Steelers have done a terrible job of covering large spreads this season.  The Steelers will beat Oakland easily, but at what point will they let up?  They’re not going to want to expose Big Ben or any of their other key players to injury, so once they have the game in hand (probably by the end of the first quarter, depending on whether they win the opening toss) they’ll put Dixon in and let him practice handing the ball off to his running backs.  That won’t accomplish too much, but if he’s given a chance to throw the ball, he’ll kill the Raiders with his scrambling.  John Harbaugh was smart enough to account for this.  Tom Cable isn’t.  I think Pittsburgh gets the edge here, just because they’ll want to show off a little for their fans, some of whom are old enough to actually have reasons to hate the Raiders.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
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MIAMI DOLPHINS
Gamblor’s Pick: Miami (+4)
Bet Amount: $23.65 (Hedge)
WHY IT’S WRONG: The Dolphins are going to be the unhappy recipients of Bill Belichick’s wrath following the humiliation his Patriots suffered on Monday night.  This one is going to get ugly, and the Patriots won’t hesitate to run up the score.
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
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CLEVELAND BROWNS
Gamblor’s Pick: Cleveland (+13)
Bet Amount: None (Flip)
WHY IT’S WRONG: I underestimated San Diego.  It seems like unless their opponents have defensive backs that are 7 feet tall or equipped with ladders or are standing on stilts, there’s no way to stop the Chargers’ passing game.  Rivers waits a few seconds, floats it downfield, and one of his gargantuan receivers reaches up and hauls it in.  Mix it in with a few carries for Ladanian Tomlinson so he won’t whine, and they’re absolutely murdering their opponents.  It’s not a fancy strategy, but it works.  Cleveland will be lucky to score even a single field goal in this game, so all San Diego needs is three touchdowns to cover this spread.  They’ll get more than that.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
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SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
Gamblor’s Pick: San Francisco (0)
Bet Amount: $4.10 (Hedge)
WHY IT’S WRONG: Because when it comes to the Seahawks, Gamblor is always wrong.  I’m just glad the Seahawks’ tax is so low this week.  I don’t see any particular reason why the Seahawks should win this game, but Gamblor is just 3-8 when for its picks in games that involve Seattle, so it’s pretty reliable to pick against in when those damned birds are involved.
DALLAS COWBOYS
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NEW YORK GIANTS
Gamblor’s Pick: Dallas (-2.5)
Bet Amount: None (Flip)
WHY IT’S WRONG: Tony Romo’s troubles in December are well-documented, and at this point one has to wonder whether it’s becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy.  It’s hard to believe that the Giants would falter in front of their home crowd in such an important game against such a familiar foe.  If the Giants can get under Romo’s skin early by throwing a few blitzes at him (with some cover provided by the deafening noise their fans will unleash), they’ll be able to take control of this game.  I’m happy taking the Giants as a home dog here.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS
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ARIZONA CARDINALS
Gamblor’s Pick: Arizona (3)
Bet Amount: $1.76 (Flip)
WHY IT’S WRONG: There’s no spread yet for this game, this is an estimate assuming that Warner plays.  Gamblor is with the Cardinals either way; it’s pick won’t change unless the spread is moves all the way down to +7 or so (which it won’t).  Without Warner, you’d have to be crazy to take Arizona here, and even with him it’s a risky proposition (regardless of how much Gamblor loves the Cardinals).  It’s a different field surface, but the Vikings will feel very much at home in the dome, and a quick score or sack will quiet the crowd very quickly.  The Cardinals are in firm control of their division and won’t be able to pick up a bye or homefield advantage, so there’s not too much motivation for them to go wild in this contest.  Plus, Ken Whisenhunt won’t reach too far into his bag of tricks lest he tip his hand on the very solid possibility that these teams will face each other again in the playoffs.
BALTIMORE RAVENS
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GREEN BAY PACKERS
Gamblor’s Pick: Baltimore (+3)
Bet Amount: $15.64 (Hedge)
WHY I AGREE: Green Bay did a surprisingly good job of patching their offensive line problems, but there are still a few residual cracks.  The Ravens will exploit these to an astonishing degree.  Flacco has definitely suffered from a sophomore slump, and Green Bay’s secondary won’t do him any favors to help him get over it.  Fortunately, though, he’ll have Ray Rice and Willis MaGahee to turn to.  I’m a little surprised to see the Packers only giving up three points; I’d expect that they’d be favored a little more for a late-season game at home.

flashfiller

Week

Zack

Gamblor

Weighted Wins

Weighted Picks

Weighted Win %

Profit

Win

Lose

Push

Win

Lose

Push

1

7

9

-

9

7

-

1339

1727

77.5%

$155.71

2

9

7

-

11

5

-

970

1292

75.1%

$98.97

3

9

7

-

6

10

-

607

1552

39.1%

-$61.75

4

8

6

-

5

9

-

288

963

29.9%

-$70.33

5

6

8

-

6

8

-

655

1217

53.8%

$15.46

6

7

7

-

8

6

-

625

1231

50.8%

-$10.53

7

8

4

1

3

9

1

246

1161

21.2%

-$127.43

8

3

10

-

9

7

-

709

1548

45.8%

-$34.43

9

7

6

-

10

3

-

1152

1609

71.6%

$119.67

10

7

8

-

8

7

-

660

2110

31.3%

-$159.21

11

8

8

-

8

8

-

745

1614

46.2%

-$29.81

12

7

8

1

6

9

-

496

1230

40.3%

-$59.66

Total

86

88

2

86

88

2

8492

17254

49.2%

-$163.34

For legality purposes, this website does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.

NFL Picks: Week 12 (updated x2)

UPDATE:  Both Gamblor and I are off to a good start this week, as my own picks are 2-1 and Gamblor hit the bigger of its two bets (on Denver).  I was way off on my prediction for the line of the Tennessee game (I had it at +1.5, when it’s actually -3), so Gamblor now has a hefty bet of $32 on the Cardinals.  The Patriots line also moved quite a bit, from +1.5 to +3, so Gamblor has essentially doubled down with a bet of $32.  Very minor line movement elsewhere.  And finally, my book still hasn’t posted a line in the Pittsburgh game and there are conflicting reports as to whether Roethlisberger will play, but I’m expecting the line to be a bit bigger than the +3 I had forecast so it’s likely that Gamblor won’t be quite so gung-ho about betting on the Steelers once a line finally does get posted.  Oh, and I did end up seeing The Blind Side this week and it was everything I expected it to be.

UPDATE 2: The line in the Pittsburgh game was finally posted, and moved like crazy even as I was trying to put my bet in.  It went from +9 to +7.5 and finally finished (from my perspective) at +8.  Getting that many points with Pittsburgh’s defense is pretty sweet, but it’s only a small bet of $8.32.

Gamblor suffered through another mildly disappointing week, dropping $29 on a weighted win percentage of 46.2%. For the second week in a row, the hedge bets served their purpose admirably, helping to mitigate the occasional havoc caused by wayward flip bets, but the computer’s big bet on a favorite went sour and dragged everything else down. The computer was 8-8 for the week, and my own picks were the same, but we were actually both extremely lucky, as Atlanta, San Francisco, and St. Louis all managed to put together late drives to cover their respective spreads by very tight margins. And since they didn’t post a spread in the Denver game until early Sunday morning, I wasn’t able to run a simulation so I didn’t get a bet in and saved myself $13. I’m still counting the loss towards Gamblor’s season total, but it’s nice not to have lost the actual money. I also took a shot on a middle by betting on the Houston Texans when the spread moved down to 3.5 (hoping for a Houston victory of exactly 4 points, which I almost got), and even though it didn’t pan out, the whole ordeal ultimately cost me only twenty-five cents to try.

The Michael Oher biopic The Blind Side came out this past weekend, and it performed spectacularly at the box office. It came in second to the absurdly successful (and critically savaged) second installation in the Twilight saga, New Moon, but managed to set a record for the “highest grossing sports drama opening” in history by earning $34.5 million in its first three days. And with the Thanksgiving weekend still looming, it’s fair to expect that the film will earn a good deal more. I haven’t seen it or read the book it’s based on (The Blind Side: Evolution of a Game by Michael Lewis), but it’s easy to anticipate that like most sports movies, it will engage it a fair share of emotional manipulation and dramatic enhancement of real events to successfully deliver a feel-good product. So far Oher has lived up to his draft potential for the Ravens, and it is a heartwarming story as long as you don’t look too deep, so I’m happy to see the film succeed.

(To watch this video, right-click and hit play)

flashfiller

flashfiller

Over the course of their careers, most NFL Players are learn to be very comfortable in front of the camera. Some of them, like Peyton Manning and Chad Ochocinco, seek it out so relentlessly that it seems like they wouldn’t be able to survive without the attention. It’s a lot of fun for football players to take some time off from the high-impact world of the gridiron warrior for long enough to appear on television in cameos or as hosts for Saturday Night Life (which has included such NFL notables as Joe Montana, Frank Tarkenton, and Walter Payton). Many retired players return to work for the networks as analysts after their playing days are over. And it’s not uncommon for them to turn up as themselves in films, like Brett Favre did in There’s Something About Mary and Lawrence Taylor did in The Waterboy. But a number of players have discovered that the lure of Hollywood is too hard to resist, that the pampered lifestyle of a silver screen celebrity satisfies their need for attention without demanding the same physical sacrifice as the NFL calls for. And some actually have a genuine talent for acting – sometimes even greater than their talent for football. Which brings me to my feature for the week:

The Top 5 Most Memorable Acting Performances by NFL Players

hightower5. Bubba Smith as Moses Hightower in Police Academy (1984): In his short-lived career in the NFL, the massive Bubba Smith was an incredibly dominant player. After a distinguished college career at Michigan State University where he helped the Spartans win a pair of co-national championships and recorded a pair of sacks in what is referred to in the Big 10 annals as the “game of the century” against Notre Dame, “Kill Bubba Kill” was the number one overall pick in the 1967 NFL draft for the Baltimore Colts. He won a ring with them in their sloppy victory over the Cowboys in Superbowl V, but his NFL career was cut short after he injured his knee tripping over a fourth-down chain in 1972. After he spent the disappointing twilight of his football career in Oakland and Houston, Bubba ventured into acting, appearing in small roles in television during the late seventies. His most memorable performance, though, was as (first Cadet, then Officer, then Sergeant, and eventually Lieutenant) Moses Hightower in the Police Academy series. As Hightower, Bubba Smith was soft-spoken and was mainly cast to take advantage of his huge size, but was a hugely popular character that returned for the every one of the movie’s sequels except the last. Bubba’s most memorable moment came during the first movie, when he flipped over a police car with his bare hands after a fellow cadet tossed off a racial slur at Hightower’s fellow black cadet at the Academy.

jefferson4. Jim Brown as Robert T Jefferson in The Dirty Dozen (1967): Jim Brown is considered by many to have been the finest football player in the history of the NFL. He played exclusively for the Cleveland Browns, and averaged 5.2 yards per carry and over 100 yards per game, amassing 12,312 yards in just nine seasons of play, during which he never missed a single game. In 1966 he was cast to play Robert T Jefferson, a militant black soldier who had been imprisoned for killing a white soldier in self-defense. Jefferson was inducted into “The Dirty Dozen,” a crew of convicted soldiers who were trained and sent on a suicidal mission into Nazi-occupied France. The film featured an all-star cast, including Lee Marvin, George Kennedy, Ernest Borgnine, Charles Bronson, Telly Savalas, and even Donald Sutherland. And Jim Brown was perfectly adequate in his role, but it was the film’s effect on his career that made his performance so memorable. Production during the summer of 1966 ran behind schedule, and Browns owner Art Modell insisted that Brown report to training camp or risk suspension. Jim Brown responded to the ultimatum by announcing his retirement from professional football. The fiercely violent film was released in 1967 and enjoyed massive success at the box office, earning a net profit of $18 million (the year’s highest take) and establishing Brown’s place in movie history.

mongo3. Alex Karras as Mongo in Blazing Saddles (1974): Alex Karras might have eventually destroyed all of his credibility as a tough guy by playing a sitcom dad for years in TV’s Webster, but in his youth he was a phenomenal athlete, playing on both sides of the ball at the University of Iowa and finishing second in the balloting for the 1957 Heisman trophy – as a defensive lineman!  He played for 12 seasons for the Detroit Lions, and was named to the pro bowl four times before retiring in 1971 and devoting his full energy to acting.  In 1974 he was cast in the classic western comedy “Blazing Saddles” as the dimwitted henchman Mongo.  Mongo was initially in service of the film’s antagonists, having been sent to harrass the town’s newly appointed black sherriff, but ultimately befriends the man (Cleavon Little) after he is bested by the clever sheriff.  Karras had few words to speak as Mongo (example: “Mongo like candy…”) but made the most of his physical attributes, staging several entertaining fight scenes and in one of the most famous sequences of the film punching out a horse.

sloth2. John Matuszak as Sloth in Goonies (1985): Like Bubba Smith, John Matuszak was also a #1 pick in the NFL draft. “The Tooz” spent much of his football career as the most notoriously degenerate member of the the most notoriously degenerate team in football, the Oakland Raiders. Although he appeared on the silver screen a few times (in North Dallas Forty and Caveman) before his retirement from football after winning his second Superbowl ring in 1981, Matuszak was best remembered for his portayal of the grotesquely deformed Sloth in Goonies (1985). Although the extensive makeup and prosthetics (which took five hours to apply) rendered Matuszak unrecognizable, his massive physique, his booming voice, and the simplicity of his character’s motivations charmed viewers of the adventure movie. Sloth used his massive strength to pull chains out of walls, singlehandedly conquered a pirate ship, and supported a boulder over an escape passage long enough for the gang to escape. A victim of his own excesses, Matuszak died of drug-induced heart failure in 1989 at the young age of 38, but Sloth’s catchphrase of “Baby…Ruth?” will live on in movie memory forever.

Sloth – “Baby Ruth”

apollo1. Carl Weathers as Apollo Creed in Rocky (1976): Carl Weathers had a short career in the NFL – he played under coach John Madden for the Oakland Raiders in seven games in 1970 and just one in 1971. But his career as an actor has been much more successful, as he’s played major (and hugely popular) roles in Predator and Happy Gilmore, and portrayed a hilarious version of himself on TV’s Arrested Development. But by far his most memorable role was also one of his first, as Apollo Creed in the 1976 film Rocky.  Weathers played the brash and cocky nemesis to Sylvester Stallone’s Italian Stallion, bringing an incredible amount of charisma to the character.  As the current heavyweight boxing champion whose legitimate opponent had been sidelined due to injury, Apollo Creed selected the amateur Rocky to take his place in what he considered to be little more than an exhibition match.  The story, of course, was a prototype for true underdog stories as Rocky rose above himself and proved that he was capable of competing at the same level as the champion.  Apollo Creed fought Rocky again in the second movie, returned in the third as Rocky’s trainer, and was finally killed in the ring by Ivan Drago in Rocky IV.

It’s another week of hot, hot, hot underdog action for Gamblor.  I’m experimenting with the model to add the distance traveled and a penalty for time zone changes, and it’s actually looking really good.  Assuming the spread in the Pittsburgh game opens up at +3, the computer will be putting down its second-largest bet of the season on the Steelers.  Here’s a summary sheet of the picks, and have a Happy Thanksgiving!

GREEN BAY PACKERS
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DETROIT LIONS
Gamblor’s Pick: Detroit (+10.5)
Bet Amount: None (Flip)
WHY I AGREE: Gamblor thinks this line looks like a trap, and I do too.  After all, Detroit’s defense just gave up 37 points to an offense that had previously scored only four (FOUR!) offensive touchdowns this whole season.  How on earth are they going to contain Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay?  I know that Green Bay is still suffering from offensive line problems, but they’ve adjusted well in their last two games and it’s hard to see how they’ll fail to put up huge numbers against a Detroit team that hasn’t won a Thanksgiving day game since 2003 and has been beaten by scores of 41-9, 27-7, 27-10, 37-26, and 47-10 since then.  So how on earth can I explain how Detroit will cover this spread?  First off, they’re a much, much better team than they were last year.  They know the entire country will be watching them play, and they’ll be out to prove that they’re not going to be the laughingstock of the league anymore (having gloriously passed that mantle on to Cleveland).  Second, with a 26-0 victory over the Lions already in their pocket, Green Bay isn’t going to take them seriously at all.  With a tough contest against the Ravens on the horizon, the Packers will sleepwalk through this game in anticipation of stuffing their faces with their families afterwards.  I’m REALLY glad that Gamblor doesn’t want to risk any money here, but I feel strangely confident that Detroit is going to shock the world on Thursday and only lose by a field goal or so.
OAKLAND RAIDERS
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DALLAS COWBOYS
Gamblor’s Pick: Oakland (+13.5)
Bet Amount: $17.80 (Hedge)
WHY IT’S WRONG: You’d think that most teams, when faced with a gutsy performance by the backup quarterback, who replaced a perfectly healthy but underperforming starter and led his team to victory in the final minute, would reward the backup by letting him start the following game.  Will the Raiders?  God only knows.  Al Davis will probably decide that Jamarcus has learned his lesson and hand him the ball again, only to watch him misunderstand the meaning of Thanksgiving and repeatedly serve up heaping platters of turnovers to the Dallas defense.  This is a tough game to begin with for the Raiders, traveling to Dallas on just three days rest.  Dallas has been looking pretty lousy lately, but it’s safe to assume they’ll get things together before playing in front of their largest television audience of the year.  I think the Raiders will be taking over Detroit’s normal Thanksgiving Day blowout duties this year, and Dallas should enjoy an easy victory much like the Giants did when they faced Oakland back in Week 5.
NEW YORK GIANTS
at
DENVER BRONCOS
Gamblor’s Pick: Denver (+7)
Bet Amount: $21.87 (Hedge)
WHY I AGREE: People are once again high on the Giants, and Denver appears to be crashing without even enough fuel left to burn.  But the Broncos’ defeat to San Diego came courtesy of two costly fumbles, and without either one it would have been a very different football game.  For Denver to be 6.5 point underdogs at home seems completely crazy to me, but according to Gamblor this spread is more or less right about where it belongs.  I just can’t bring myself to agree with that.  The Giants have to travel more than halfway across the country on a short week, and despite their reputation of being tough on the road, they haven’t been all that great this year.  They’ve lost their last two road games pretty badly, and while I don’t think they’ll lose to the Broncos, I do expect a reasonably close game.  I do worry that McDaniels made a mistake in failing to sit Kyle Orton when it looked like the game was out of hand, but I’m satisfied that this one should be tight enough for Denver to cover the spread.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
at
ATLANTA FALCONS
Gamblor’s Pick: Tampa Bay (+12)
Bet Amount: $24.00 (Hedge)
WHY IT’S WRONG: It’s not uncommon for a rookie quarterback to have a strong performance in his first game.  It’s possible to study film from their college careers, but it’s very hard for defensive coordinators to predict how the quarterback will behave and what tendencies they’ll exhibit until they’ve had a chance to see them play in the NFL.  Remember Todd Marinovich and Ryan Leaf?  Once rookie quarterbacks have had a chance to play a little bit, smart coaches and smart defenders can watch their past games and learn a great deal about how to shut them down.  It’s exactly what has happened to Mark Sanchez this year – evidenced by his declining performance in his last three games.  And it’s in the process of happening to poor Josh Freeman.  Sadly for Freeman, he doesn’t have much of a team surrounding him to help disguise his weaknesses and fix his mistakes, so he’s going to be in lots of trouble against Atlanta.  Atlanta is going to be desperate for a win, and they’re not going to let up on the Buccaneers in this one.  I’m expecting a total blowout here.
MIAMI DOLPHINS
at
BUFFALO BILLS
Gamblor’s Pick: Buffalo (+3)
Bet Amount: $6.39 (Hedge)
WHY IT’S WRONG: This will be the overdue Buffalo meltdown that everyone (including me, and especially Gamblor) anticipated last week.  You need a good defensive scheme to stop the hurricane of chaos that is Miami’s offense, and with just over a week at the helm, Bills interim coach Perry Fewell won’t have one.
CLEVELAND BROWNS
at
CINCINNATI BENGALS
Gamblor’s Pick: Cleveland (+14)
Bet Amount: $13.16 (Hedge)
WHY IT’S WRONG: Cleveland scored 37 points against the Lions and gave up 38.  Can anyone tell me what the difference is between the Lions and the Bengals?  Hint: it has something to do with defense.  Frankly, I’d like the Browns’ chances against a team of actual bengals a lot better.  The players aren’t going to be putting forth a single ounce of effort for Mangini anymore, and Cincinnati should be able to blow them out completely.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
at
HOUSTON TEXANS
Gamblor’s Pick: Houston (+3.5)
Bet Amount: $3.48 (Flip)
WHY IT’S WRONG: I’m rounding this one down.  Houston put way too much into their loss to Tennessee to be able to hang with the Colts, who are overdue for a big victory.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
at
SAINT LOUIS RAMS
Gamblor’s Pick: St. Louis (+3)
Bet Amount: $22.64 (Hedge)
WHY I HATE SEATTLE SO MUCH: They keep costing me money.  They can be held responsible for ALL of my total losses this season.  If it weren’t for the Seahawks consistently covering spreads against weaker teams and getting blown out against better ones, Gamblor would be breaking even for the season.  Although the Rams played great against New Orleans and pulled off a magnificent backdoor cover against Arizona last week, I don’t trust them to cover the spread three weeks in a row.  Plus, the Seahawks just LOVE screwing over the computer, and I don’t see any reason why they’ll break stride here.
WASHINGTON REDSKINS
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PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Gamblor’s Pick: Washington (+9)
Bet Amount: $21.68 (Hedge and Flip)
WHY I AGREE: Sure, the Eagles are surging again, but they’re terrible as large favorites, and the Redskins will actually be happy to get away from their own depressing stadium for a game.  Andy Reid will stay in character, making idiotic decision after idiotic decision until the Eagles are lucky to come out of this one with a win.
CAROLINA PANTHERS
at
NEW YORK JETS
Gamblor’s Pick: Carolina (+3)
Bet Amount: $15.87 (Hedge)
WHY I AGREE: The Jets are collapsing.  The Panthers aren’t anything special, but the Jets have fallen into despair and will have given up on their season by now, while Carolina will still be playing for pride.
CHICAGO BEARS
at
MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Gamblor’s Pick: Chicago (+11)
Bet Amount: $40.25 (Hedge)
WHY I AGREE: This is the computer’s largest hedge bet of the season so far, which means that in Gamblor’s eyes, the spread couldn’t be any more perfect.  Four of Chicago’s next six games are within the division, so this will be a chance for the Bears to prove they can compete with the other teams in the NFC North.  I (stupidly) keep thinking that Cutler will be able to turn things around, but maybe now that the Bears are effectively out of the playoffs and the pressure is off, he’ll actually come through.  I have a funny feeling that the half point is going to come into play in this one.
ARIZONA CARDINALS
at
TENNESSEE TITANS
Gamblor’s Pick: Arizona (+3)
Bet Amount: $31.55 (Hedge)
WHY IT’S WRONG: Vince Young has done an admirable job of rescuing the Titans’ season, but this winning streak can’t last forever.  Arizona has been quietly locking up the NFC West and probably doesn’t have much to play for here, which could lead them to show up flat and phone this one in, but they’ve just been too good lately to expect them to give a game like this away.  I’ll be rounding this one down happily, since I don’t feel like I have a very good read on what’s going to happen.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
at
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
Gamblor’s Pick: Kansas City (+13.5)
Bet Amount: $8.90 (Hedge)
WHY I AGREE: I’m with Gamblor on this one.  San Diego has been incredibly hot lately, but after a run of three emotional victories (over the Giants, Eagles, and Denver) they’ll be looking to relax a little bit.  I doubt they’ll score more points than they absolutely need to, and Kansas City will be feeling emboldened by their recent victory over the Superbowl champions.  I don’t expect this one to be particularly close, but 13.5 points is too many for a fat and happy Chargers squad to cover two days after their Thanksgiving meal.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
at
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
Gamblor’s Pick: Jacksonville (+3)
Bet Amount: None (Flip)
WHY IT’S WRONG: San Francisco will finally find their footing at home.  Jacksonville doesn’t have any offense to speak of, and this game will probably be reasonably tight, but San Francisco should eventually dominate courtesy of the fact that they’re defending their home territory.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS
at
BALTIMORE RAVENS
Gamblor’s Pick: Pittsburgh (+3)
Bet Amount: $103.73 (Flip)
WHY I AGREE: Pittburgh has delivered two lackluster losses in a row, and they’re only 3-7 against the spread so far this year.  Most bettors won’t have any confidence in them and will blithely lay the points with Baltimore.  But Pittsburgh is still good – and I have the feeling this will be the game where they really kick their season into gear in preparation for the playoffs.  I’m not going to waste as much breath as I did on the Dallas game when Gamblor had so much money on the line; I’m just happy it’s with a team I believe can deliver a solid win on the road when they’re called upon to do so.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
at
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
Gamblor’s Pick: New England (+3)
Bet Amount: $32.32 (Hedge)
WHY I AGREE: It’s always nice to get points with the Patriots.  Belichick will be going absolutely crazy in his efforts to stop anyone else from having a perfect season, and New Orleans doesn’t have the defense to contend with New England’s talent on offense.  It’s funny to say that an undefeated team is going to get beat easily, but the Saints have been leaking oil for a while now and it’s just a matter of time before they get beat.

flashfiller

Week

Zack

Gamblor

Weighted Wins

Weighted Picks

Weighted Win %

Profit

Win

Lose

Push

Win

Lose

Push

1

7

9

-

9

7

-

1339

1727

77.5%

$155.71

2

9

7

-

11

5

-

970

1292

75.1%

$98.97

3

9

7

-

6

10

-

607

1552

39.1%

-$61.75

4

8

6

-

5

9

-

288

963

29.9%

-$70.33

5

6

8

-

6

8

-

655

1217

53.8%

$15.46

6

7

7

-

8

6

-

625

1231

50.8%

-$10.53

7

8

4

1

3

9

1

246

1161

21.2%

-$127.43

8

3

10

-

9

7

-

709

1548

45.8%

-$34.43

9

7

6

-

10

3

-

1152

1609

71.6%

$119.67

10

7

8

-

8

7

-

660

2110

31.3%

-$159.21

11

8

8

-

8

8

-

745

1614

46.2%

-$29.81

Total

79

80

1

80

79

1

7996

16024

49.9%

-$103.68

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