Last week was a tough one. The computer’s record overall was just fine at 8-7, but it missed its biggest bet of the year on a Dallas squad that normally waits until December to underachieve on such an epic level. In my midseason summary last week I mentioned last week that the flip model was due for a major correction, and it accomplished that in one very expensive fell swoop. The total losses for the week were $159 on a weighted win percentage of 31.3%, which means that without the Dallas loss, it actually would have been a profitable week (see a summary sheet here). Much like Bill Belichick, Gamblor picked a spot where it thought the odds were in its favor, gambled, and came up short.
Most of the talk of the football world this week has been about the New England Patriots coach’s decision to send his offense back onto the field on fourth-and-two from his own thirty yard line instead of punting. And you’d think that as someone who relies on cold hard statistics to make his gambling decisions, I would join the ranks of those who have defended Belichick’s decision as a wise percentage play that unfortunately didn’t pay off. But I’m actually firmly in the camp of those who view Belichick’s decision as a the worst coaching mistake of his career.
(To watch this video, right-click and hit play)
I don’t buy all that crap about how the odds (based on previous attempts) of making the first down on 4th and 2 were better than the odds of stopping Manning from 70 (or 30) yards out. In going for it on fourth down, Belichick made two huge mistakes. The first was that he provided the wrong motivation to his offense. Normally, in a fourth-down situation, the psychological motivation for the players is the prospect of succeeding. That’s why there’s a reasonably high rate of success. Whether they’re deep in enemy territory and gambling or they’re behind and chasing a lead, failing doesn’t really change their situation much – there’s nothing to lose. In the Colts game, the Patriots offense’s primary motivation was a fear of failure. And as with any sport, when you start worrying about blowing it, you usually do. (more…)
UPDATE 2: The half-point movement in the Monday night game has convinced Gamblor to put down a small ($5.12) hedge bet on the Cleveland Browns.
UPDATE: The biggest news is that the line in the San Diego game has slid all the way down from -2.5 to -1, which means Gamblor is slightly more enthusiastic about Philadelphia and makes it feel like this game is a trap – the majority of money was already on San Diego, so why would the books move the line down and entice more? The Tennessee and Carolina lines have each moved a half point, but it hasn’t affected things much or made any major impression on me. I was spot-on in my assessment of last night’s game – and so was Gamblor, actually (who thought the spread was just about perfect) but unfortunately it came out on the wrong side of the coin toss this time. It’s a lot easier to relax about comparatively minor losses like this, of course, when you’ve got such a huge bet to worry about later on in the week. I’ll be keeping my fingers crossed that Dallas comes up big this week. An updated summary sheet is here.
Gamblor went huge in Week 9, hitting its top two picks (including its biggest bet of the year thus far) and finishing with a record of 10-3, a weighted win percentage of 71.6%, and a profit of $120. And it managed all this despite suffering two of the worst bad beats it has endured all year. The first was courtesy of Jacksonville’s defense, who gave up two touchdowns to the Kansas City Chiefs in the final three minutes. The second was delivered by Matt Stafford, who tossed a pick-six with twenty seconds left to blow the Lions cover of a 10 point spread after they opened the game with a lead of 17-0. Of course, complaining about a pair of losses during such a great week is like complaining that you don’t like the way your maid Carlotta folds your undershirts after she irons them.
My own picks were merely adequate, going 7-6, which is precisely why Gamblor gets to risk real money and I don’t. Vegas certainly enjoyed their weekend, as Tampa Bay delivered a stunning upset over the Green Bay Packers (one which I’m very proud to have predicted last week – though I certainly didn’t envision them winning outright) and underdogs carried the day with a dazzling record of 10-3. Which brings me to the week’s feature…
(To watch this video, right-click and hit play)
To celebrate Tampa Bay’s stunning upset of the Packers last week, I thought I’d put together a countdown of Gamblor’s top 5 upsets (so far) of 2009. You’d think that Oakland’s surprising defeat of Philadelphia in what was called a “lock of the century” by Colin Cowherd and enthusiastically endorsed by many others would qualify, but Gamblor didn’t actually call this one as an upset – it thought the +14 spread was just about perfect and put down a sizable hedge bet on the host. But the following games featured spreads that Gamblor thought were far too low – thus indicating a good potential for the underdog to prevail.
The Top 5 Gamblor-Predicted Upsets of 2009:
5. Cincinnati Bengals 17, Baltimore Ravens 14. Baltimore was favored by 8.5 points in this Week 5 game, as most bettors failed to give the Bengals proper credit for their offseason improvements (that had led to a 3-1 start) and got burned as a result. A late touchdown with just 0:22 on the clock from Carson Palmer to Andre Caldwell put Cincinnati over the top in this game that cracked Gamblor’s 90% threshold, netting a gain of $26.30 for the computer.
4. Houston Texans 34, Tennesse Titans 31. Tennessee had lost their first game of the season in a tough overtime loss to the defending Superbowl champions, but the following week Gamblor thought the 6.5 points the Titans were laying against the upstart Texans was too few – it was a trap. Houston scored the last 10 points in the game, helping the Titans to accelerate downwards during the initial phase of their disastrous 2009 season and delivering $29.37 to Gamblor’s coffers in the process.
3. Arizona Cardinals 27, Seattle Seahawks 3. The Seahawks had been given far too much credit by far too many people prior to the 2009 season, and by Week 6 their problems had become apparent. Gamblor believed that their strength at home should have engendered a much larger spread than the 3 points they were giving to the Cardinals, and thought it spotted a trap here. It did. The Cardinals demolished the Seahawks, proving their dominance and providing Gamblor with $27.19 as a reward for its faithfulness.
2. Green Bay Packers 28, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 38. Tampa Bay ended a streak of eleven straight losses by coming back from an 11 point deficit in the fourth quarter to beat the Packers and potentially put a dent in their playoff hopes. Gamblor felt that the spread of 9.5 wasn’t nearly high enough to compensate for the Buccaneers’ ineptitude against Green Bay’s offensive machine, and consequently loaded up heavily on the underdog. This was one of the highest points of the season for Gamblor as it risked $42.08 and took back $40.08 in what wasn’t even its largest bet of the week.
1. Tennessee Titans 34, San Francisco 49ers 27. In this delightfully exciting Week 9 game, the winless Titans headed to the bay to face a tough San Francisco team that was laying only 4 points. This was actualy quite a fashionable pick amongst football handicappers, and Gamblor smartly fell into line, risking $70.44 to win $69.07 in what was its largest bet – and victory – of the 2009 season so far.
Gamblor doesn’t have any major upsets predicted for the coming week. Instead, it is wagering almost exactly 1/5 of its current bankroll on the Cowboys to cover a 3 point spread against the Packers. A printable summary sheet is here and my thoughts on the games are as follows:
CHICAGO BEARS at SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
Gamblor’s Pick: Chicago (+3)
Bet Amount: $22.58 (Hedge)
WHY IT’S WRONG: Both Chicago and San Francisco have followed a similar pattern – after a very encouraging start to their season, they have both started to slide substantially. They’re both despearate for a dominant performance from their offense, but neither will find it against the other’s defense in this game. I’m expecting a tight game here, with the home field advantage being all that puts San Francisco over the top – but by just more than the requisite 3 points.
BUFFALO BILLS at TENNESSEE TITANS
Gamblor’s Pick: Buffalo (+7)
Bet Amount: $0.95 (Hedge)
WHY IT’S WRONG: The Titans effort against the 49ers showed that they’re not ready to give up on their season just yet. Buffalo won’t have made any major improvements over the bye week; their woes stem from a lack of talent rather than any major organizational issues. Terrell Owens might be able to have a decent day against the Titans’ depleted secondary, but the Bills have to figure out a way to get the ball to him first. Chris Johnson will pick up where Houston’s Ryan Moats left off, and Tennessee’s faithful fans will be rewarded for their perseverence.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS at SAINT LOUIS RAMS
Gamblor’s Pick: St. Louis (+13.5)
Bet Amount: $3.98 (Hedge and Flip)
WHY I AGREE: I wish I could stay away from this game. St. Louis knows very well that they have no chance to win this game, while New Orleans has no incentive to put forth any serious effort either. I’d expect Sean Payton to use this (and the following week’s) contest to work out the kinks in his running game and defense. I think the Rams will probably cover here, but only because the spread isn’t nearly as large as it ought to be and feels a bit like a trap. The Eagles were giving 14 points when they went into Oakland a few weeks ago; are the books telling us that the Eagles are better than the Saints? Or is it that the Raiders are worse than the Rams? Or maybe it’s that the fans at the Edward Jones Dome will provide more of a lift to the Rams than the ones in Oakland’s black hole did for the Raiders? None of these is remotely true. I’m glad I don’t have any more than the minimum on the line here, but I’ll take my chances and round this one up.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS at MIAMI DOLPHINS
Gamblor’s Pick: Tampa Bay (+10)
Bet Amount: $15.56 (Hedge)
WHY IT’S WRONG: There’s really no point in playing this game. Miami has suffered some tough losses and has a worse record than they deserve, so they won’t let an easy victory like this over a geographical rival slip away. They’ll be scoring at will, and their defense will stop Tampa Bay with relative ease. Freeman did a nice job against Green Bay in leading the Buccaneers to their first victory of the season, but he won’t get nearly as much help from his defense and special teams this time.
DETROIT LIONS at MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Gamblor’s Pick: Detroit (+16.5)
Bet Amount: $29.22 (Hedge)
WHY I AGREE: This should be an easy victory for the Vikings, but I’m not so sure it will be. Divisional games are always closer, and this Detroit team sees this Vikings team twice a year – they know them well. A healthy Stafford and Calvin Johnson will enable Detroit to move the ball offensively, and their defense may actually manage to stop Farve if Childress isn’t smart enough to leave the ball in Adrian Peterson’s hands for the majority of their offensive plays. Although Jared Allen will wreak havoc in the Lions backfield, this is just too many points to pass up for a divisional rivalry.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS at NEW YORK JETS
Gamblor’s Pick: Jacksonville (+7)
Bet Amount: $1.33 (Hedge)
WHY IT’S WRONG: Despite losing to the Dolphins, the Jets completely dominated their last game before the bye week, as well as demolishing the Raiders the week before. And they did it all on the ground. Jacksonville is susceptible to a strong ground attack, and Sanchez will be able to supplement the rushing game with a few well-timed play-action passes. But will Jacksonville be able to strike back? It’s not likely. Rex Ryan will have plugged the holes in his special teams. The Jets will be a bit distracted by their upcoming rematch with the Patriots – in New England, but they’ll be able to handle the Jaguars. If they had beaten Miami I’d be concerned about them showing up complacent, but they’re coming off a loss so they should be focused.
CINCINNATI BENGALS at PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Gamblor’s Pick: Cincinnati (+7)
Bet Amount: $21.25 (Hedge Conflict)
WHY IT’S WRONG: The Bengals pulled off a surprising upset of the Steelers when they met earlier this season, but don’t expect them to repeat that at Heinz Field. Pittsburgh won’t take them so lightly this time, and will prepare with proper respect for the improvements Cincinnati has made since last season’s disaster circus. After a short week, the Steelers will be a little light on gas, but with a free win against Kansas City lined up for next week, they won’t be afraid to let it all hang out here. I think that Cincinnati will stay in this game for a while, but ultimately Pittsburgh is the better team and they’ll be able to pull away during the second half.
DENVER BRONCOS at WASHINGTON REDSKINS
Gamblor’s Pick: Washington (+3.5)
Bet Amount: $24.09 (Hedge)
WHY IT’S WRONG: After last week’s loss to Pittsburgh, Denver is looking for someone to kick around. Enter the Washington Redskins. The Broncos will want to build some momentum going into next week’s rematch against the surging Chargers, and Washinton is in complete disarray. The fans HATE Snyder and won’t offer much support to a team that got ruined in Atlanta the previous week. Furthermore, and I know it was ages ago, but Denver would love to avenge one of their Superbowl defeats, so they won’t let up once they get ahead. The margin of Washington’s losses has been getting progressively bigger each of the last four weeks (3, 8, 10, 14) and I fully expect that trend to continue here.
ATLANTA FALCONS at CAROLINA PANTHERS
Gamblor’s Pick: Carolina (+1.5)
Bet Amount: $25.23 (Hedge)
WHY IT’S WRONG: Atlanta had a pretty easy time with Washington while Carolina completely shit the bed against New Orleans. I think Matt Ryan will look very sharp in this game against a Carolina secondary that had their spirits crushed in the second half against the Saints. With Michael Turner also running rampant, Carolina will find themselves in big trouble here, much like the 49ers did a few weeks back.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS at OAKLAND RAIDERS
Gamblor’s Pick: Oakland (-2)
Bet Amount: $21.06 (Flip)
WHY IT’S WRONG: Sadly enough for the Raiders, one of the only teams they’re good enough to beat is also one won’t they won’t take seriously. Kansas City is engaged in a major rebuilding project, but they’re still able to get motivated against comparable opponents, as they showed against Washington. Look for lazy play, lots of penalties, and major frustration as the Raiders lose to a team who – in their own deluded minds – they’re vastly superior to.
DALLAS COWBOYS at GREEN BAY PACKERS
Gamblor’s Pick: Dallas (-3)
Bet Amount: $175.49 (Flip – 92%)
WHY I AGREE: Since this is Gamblor’s biggest pick of the season, and this bet has the potential to consume one fifth of my entire bankroll, I’m going to devote a few more words to this contest than usual. Gamblor sees this spread as horribly tilted – given Green Bay’s strength at home and their complete dominance in their games against St. Louis, Detroit, and Cleveland this year, and the disparity between Dallas’ performance at home and on the road, it doesn’t believe that Dallas should be favored in this game at all. Fully 347 of the 360 different models believe that if past performance predicted future results, Green Bay would cover the spread 80% of the time – or more. Twenty-three of the models see Green Bay covering this spread greater than 90% of the time – with a high value of 91.3%. Which means, from Gamblor’s perspective, this line is an epic trap – Vegas knows that Dallas is going to completely dominate this game and is trying to scare money away from Dallas and onto Green Bay by offering them such a favorable line.
From a human perspective, this line doesn’t seem so far off. Dallas has been very strong this season, and many of us had the chance to watch Green Bay provide the pathetic Buccaneers with their first victory of the season after the networks cut away from an incredibly boring Arizona-Chicago game. Not only was it Tampa’s first win, but they won using a rookie quarterback who had never started a game in the NFL before. Green Bay’s problems with their offensive line have been very obvious to anyone who has seen this team play over the last several weeks – Aaron Rodgers has been under constant pressure and Dallas certainly has the personnel to keep this up. The Dallas offense is very strong in every facet of the game. They were able to get the job done against Philadelphia, and have been held to less than 20 points just once this season. And the better teams that Green Bay has faced (Minnesota – both times, and Cincinnati) were able to put up more than 30 against Green Bay’s weak defense. So things seem to be lined up well for the Cowboys, and in normal circumstances I’d feel very comfortable picking them to win this contest easily.
But of course with a bet of this size it’s impossible to avoid second-guessing yourself. The 90% model has been so hot this season that (even though I know my statistics well enough to know better) it feels like it’s due for a letdown. Green Bay has lost two in a row to fall to 4-4 and will be playing with a lot of desperation – their playoff chances are very much at stake here. And given how dominant Dallas has been lately, you’d almost expect them to be laying more points – especially since bettors aren’t fazed by the line and are flocking to bet on the Cowboys in droves. It’s never easy to play in Green Bay when it starts getting cold, and the Packers fans can provide the team with an incredible boost at times.
But there are some other signs to help me relax. The weather in Green Bay on Sunday is forecast to be 45 degrees and sunny – perfect football weather. And Vegas has already moved the spread as far as they’re going to – it opened at 1.5 and currently sits at 3. It won’t budge from here – the sportsbooks are not going to leave themselves open to getting middled by the most common final score differential in football.
I’m glad I don’t have to make my own decision whether to pull the trigger on this one – my sportsbook was offering a line with zero juice (yet another source of worry, of course) so I’ve already gotten my bet in. The die has been cast. I’ll be watching breathlessly on Sunday to see how this one turns out, but I’m happy to say that I believe in Gamblor’s judgment on this one.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS at ARIZONA CARDINALS
Gamblor’s Pick: Arizona (-9)
Bet Amount: None (Flip)
WHY I AGREE: Seattle was the beneficially of five Matt Stafford interceptions, and still only barely beat the lowly Lions. Arizona should dispatch them with ease
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES at SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
Gamblor’s Pick: Philadelphia (+1)
Bet Amount: $20.68 (Hedge)
WHY I AGREE: Last week while watching Dallas beat Philadelphia, I referred to Andy Reid as a “fat idiot.” I stand by my statement. I’m sure you’ve already heard enough about his poor play selection and ham-fisted clock management skills. But he’s not the only reason that Philadelphia is a vastly overrated team. Their problems go all the way to the top. Any team that offers $1.6 million to a tainted quarterback of questionable ability who could be bought for far less needs to take a serious look at its general management staff. San Diego is surging in a big way, and once they figure out how to deal with LT’s diminished production they’ll be practially unstoppable. So why do I like Philadelphia to cover the spread? Simple – because San Diego won’t be thinking about anything else other than their upcoming rematch with Denver, and because the Eagles thrive as underdogs.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Gamblor’s Pick: New England (+3)
Bet Amount: $33.77 (Hedge)
WHY I AGREE: Very tough to make a call on this one – it’s the game of the year for both of these teams, so it’s fair to expect some fireworks. Peyton Manning has never looked better in his career than he has this season, but his head coach has never faced these Patriots before. Bill Belichick knows the Colts well. They would love to be the ones who end the Colts’ threat of duplicating New England’s perfect regular season record, so I’m giving the Patriots the edge here. Plus, it can’t hurt to have those points.
BALTIMORE RAVENS at CLEVELAND BROWNS
Gamblor’s Pick: Cleveland (+11)
Bet Amount: $5.12 (Hedge)
WHY IT’S WRONG: Gamblor thinks Cleveland should be getting more points here, and I fully agree. What we don’t agree on is whether this one is a trap. Cleveland is awful, and this game really has no business being shown on Monday night.
Week
Zack
Gamblor
Weighted Wins
Weighted Picks
Weighted Win %
Profit
Win
Lose
Push
Win
Lose
Push
1
7
9
-
9
7
-
1339
1727
77.5%
$155.71
2
9
7
-
11
5
-
970
1292
75.1%
$98.97
3
9
7
-
6
10
-
607
1552
39.1%
-$61.75
4
8
6
-
5
9
-
288
963
29.9%
-$70.33
5
6
8
-
6
8
-
655
1217
53.8%
$15.46
6
7
7
-
8
6
-
625
1231
50.8%
-$10.53
7
8
4
1
3
9
1
246
1161
21.2%
-$127.43
8
3
10
-
9
7
-
709
1548
45.8%
-$34.43
9
7
6
-
10
3
-
1152
1609
71.6%
$119.67
Total
64
64
1
64
64
1
6591
12300
53.6%
$85.34
For legality purposes, this website does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.
I promised a review of the year so far, and I’m happy to see that this last week’s performance has restored Gamblor to profitability for the season. And even though the model is slightly underperforming its target so far this year (winning at a rate of 53.6% compared to a goal of 55.0%), it has been behaving exactly the way it was designed to.
I summarized the two major models at the beginning of the season (in parts one and two), but to refresh your memory on how Gamblor works, when it feels the spread has been set accurately, it defaults to the underdog – these picks are referred to as “hedge” bets. Last week’s surge by the underdogs took them over the top for the season (to 64-63 for a percentage of 50.4%) but they’re still just a shade below the 51.1% that can be expected over the long haul. And so far this season the hedge bets have been a weak spot for Gamblor, as they have delivered a winning percentage of just 44.4%. Fortunately, this has been more than compensated for by the “flip” bets, where Gamblor thinks the spread is significantly skewed from where the statistics say it ought to be and thus presumes that Vegas is setting a trap – leading to a bet in the opposite direction. The flip bets haven’t been very active this season, but when they have, they’ve been delivering at an unbelievable (and certainly unsustainable) rate. Flip bets where the confidence level is above 85% have been correct 78.6% of the time. And where the confidence level is above 90%, the flip bets have performed at been a truly ridiculous rate of 95.8%.
It’s important to remember that confidence level does not equate with expected win percentage – the 85% confidence level corresponds to an expected win percentage of 54.9% (based on historical data) and the 90% confidence level corresponds to an expected win percentage of 58.0%. It’s hard to say whether its overachievement this year this is just a statistical fluctuation, or whether the sportsbooks have become a bit more conservative in attempting to set traps – waiting until they feel like they’ve got a sure thing before pulling the trigger. There hasn’t been a single model that’s delivered a confidence level of greater than 95% this season (which anticipates a win percentage of 70.1%), and it seems like the 95% bets have become more and more rare over the last several years (only ten games in the last three and a half years compared to 55 in the eight seasons prior). It could be that 90% is the new 95%, or it could have no significance whatsoever. It’s too soon to tell.
The following graph shows Gamblor’s performance over the entire time it’s been active. I didn’t finalize the model and start betting until about halfway through the season in 2008, which is actually quite fortunate because it would have suffered a huge setback in Week 3 if I had. There was a cripping loss on a 95% flip bet that would have seriously shaken my faith in the program – but fortunately I picked a very good time to get started. In the graph below, the blue line represents the hedge bets, and the red line represents the flip bets, each based on a starting bankroll of $500. The columns represent the overall performance once you combine the two. It doesn’t seem like all that much has happened so far in 2009 – the overall growth of my bankroll has been just 10% since the start of this season – but that all has the potential to change this week…
Week
Zack
Gamblor
Weighted Wins
Weighted Picks
Weighted Win %
Profit
Win
Lose
Push
Win
Lose
Push
1
7
9
-
9
7
-
1339
1727
77.5%
$155.71
2
9
7
-
11
5
-
970
1292
75.1%
$98.97
3
9
7
-
6
10
-
607
1552
39.1%
-$61.75
4
8
6
-
5
9
-
288
963
29.9%
-$70.33
5
6
8
-
6
8
-
655
1217
53.8%
$15.46
6
7
7
-
8
6
-
625
1231
50.8%
-$10.53
7
8
4
1
3
9
1
246
1161
21.2%
-$127.43
8
3
10
-
9
7
-
709
1548
45.8%
-$34.43
9
7
6
-
10
3
-
1152
1609
71.6%
$119.67
Total
64
64
1
64
64
1
6591
12300
53.6%
$85.34
For legality purposes, this website does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.
Gamblor had another lackluster performance last week, going 6-7 and dropping $34 in the process, which means it has now fallen just below fifty-one percent for the season (weighted win percentage of 50.9%) and is now dipping into last season’s winnings to support its incorrigible habit of betting on underdogs, who are thus far 54-60-1 for the year. My own picks were terrible, going 3-10. The most thrilling part of my football weekend wasn’t actually until Tuesday, when I learned the results of Monday night’s game – I had changed the channel with a minute and a half remaining expecting that New Orleans would be able to kill the clock with ease. What a pleasant surprise!
I saw it suggested (plausibly) last week that New Orleans’ kicker John Carney was shaving points at the behest of the books against Miami (he missed a key extra point near the end of the game, and booted the ball out of bounds on their final kickoff to give the Dolphins terrific field position), but I certainly don’t believe that anymore. Carney nailed an otherwise meaningless extra point with just three minutes left in the game, putting the Saints up by 11 against a spread that originally opened at -10. This would be bad news for the books, of course, because most of the money early in the week went towards the Saints. The action was getting so lopsided that by Monday afternoon they had moved the spread all the way to -11.5 and even -12 in some places. Which meant that the sportsbooks, already suffering quite badly this year, were in very realistic peril of getting middled. Fortunately, Mike Bell came to their rescue in a huge way, fumbling the ball away on third down and giving Atlanta the opportunity to cover the spread with a late field goal.
(To watch this video, right-click and hit play)
This is the first year I've paid attention to line movement, so I've overlooked the prospect of hitting a middle until now. I've mentioned before that the sportsbooks don't like to move the lines very much - but this year, facing an unprecedented number of blowouts, an expanded salary cap, and several of the worst NFL teams in decades, they're in full-on panic mode and will be moving the lines a lot more than usual. The prospect of a middle actually seems like a pretty good investment, especially now that the two-point conversion has made score differentials like 5 and 2 much more common. For those who are unfamiliar with how a middle works, it's pretty simple. Imagine the spread opens at -6.5 on Monday, and you put a $11 bet down on the favorite, standing to win $10. Everyone else does too, so the book gets spooked and moves the line to -7.5 by Thursday in hopes of getting more people to bet on the underdog. If you then put in another $11 bet on the underdog, it won't matter what the final score is - the most you can possibly lose is $1 (if you lose one bet, you'll win the other - laying down $22 and getting $21 back). But on the slim chance that the game is decided by a single touchdown, your favorite bet (-6.5) will win $10, and your underdog bet (+7.5) will also win $10, for a total of $20. So basically you're taking a 20 to 1 shot that the spread is going to be exactly right.
The question then becomes one of how often the "middle" actually pays off. According to my database, the spread is exactly right only about once per 30 games. Of course, since a good portion of the time the spread includes a half-point to prevent pushes, and if you're playing for a middle you're most likely going to have a half-point on each side (bets of, let's say, -3.5 on the favorite and +4.5 on the underdog), it's important to include games where the spread is correct to within half a point. Games which (with the spread factored in) are decided by a half point or less are much more common - they occur once every 16 games. So in principle if it's possible to get a middle, it's probably worth taking a shot at it. Of course, since I don't normally put my bets in until Friday, it's not something I expect to be attempting this year - but in the future if I see a lot of line movement late in the week like we did with the New Orleans game, I might give it a shot.
Anyhow, I hope you enjoyed my digression here. I'll be back with another top 5 feature next week - and if you haven't watched it yet, and you like to watch hot chicks talk about Dungeons and Dragons, you should go watch the video that Shi Ne (aka The Sports Report Girl) put together for last week's Halloween post. Here are the week's picks, along with a nifty printable summary sheet so you can follow both Gamblor's and my own predictions at home, if you happen to be so inclined.
WASHINGTON REDSKINS at ATLANTA FALCONS
Gamblor's Pick: Washington (+10)
Bet Amount: $31.18 (Hedge)
WHY I AGREE: Washington's defense put forward a spectacular effort against Philadelphia, but it wasn't nearly enough to compensate for their lack of offense. And they'll be able to keep Matt Ryan and Michael Turner in check much the same way. Atlanta is going to be suffering a tremendous letdown after such a fierce effort against the Saints. This game will mean a lot more to the Redskins, who will be able to actually put forward a competitive effort this time around. It's hard to have faith in such a poorly-managed squad, but if Vegas thought this game was going to be a blowout, they'd have made the spread a lot bigger.
ARIZONA CARDINALS at CHICAGO BEARS
Gamblor's Pick: Arizona (+3)
Bet Amount: $0.56 (Hedge)
WHY IT'S WRONG: Chicago looks to be getting together after a healthy dose of Cleveland's Miracle Rejuvenation Tonic, while the weaknesses that Arizona has successfully concealed for much of the season were on full display against Carolina last week. My feelings on this game aren't all that strong, but I do think Old Man Warner's arthritic hip will act up in the cold and Sulky Jay will be looking forward to the upcoming winter of discontent enough to deliver a solid outing. My only concern is that the line feels a little trappy - with Chicago's strong day against Cleveland and Arizona's woes against Carolina, expect lots of money on Chicago.
BALTIMORE RAVENS at CINCINNATI BENGALS
Gamblor's Pick: Cincinnati (+3)
Bet Amount: $8.26 (Hedge)
WHY I AGREE: Baltimore certainly looked like a complete team against Denver, but they won't be able to run the ball nearly as well against Cincinnati's ground defense forces. Chicago couldn't. Houston couldn't. And oh yeah, Baltimore couldn't either when these teams met in Week 5. I'm not sure why Vegas is giving Baltimore the edge here. Sure, revenge is a factor, but enough to flip the home-field advantage for two divisional rivals who sport a similar record? Gamblor actually thinks this line isn't too far off from where it belongs, but it irks me (and the Bengals, no doubt) to see Cincinnati coming off a 45-10 thumping of a solid Chicago team and a week of rest to be viewed as underdogs at home against a team they have already beaten.
HOUSTON TEXANS at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Gamblor's Pick: Houston (+9)
Bet Amount: $30.81 (Hedge)
WHY IT'S WRONG: Sure, I know I said I'd keep picking Indianapolis until someone proved me wrong, but that didn't mean that I'd stop picking them for good once it happened. Houston's defense is way too soft to contain Peyton Manning - he'll torch them and Schaub won't be able to keep up - and might even end up getting hurt trying.
MIAMI DOLPHINS at NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Gamblor's Pick: Miami (+10.5)
Bet Amount: $3.38 (Hedge)
WHY IT'S WRONG: New England has looked great lately - even in London, where I thought they'd show up flat. Miami managed to beat the Jets, but I doubt they'd have pulled that off without three huge plays from their defense and special teams (a fumble returned for a touchdown by Jason Taylor and the two kickoff returns by Ted Ginn). Bill Belichick will have watched the tape of the Saints game enough times during his week off to recite each play from memory, and he's got the personnel to imitate Sean Payton's game plan exactly. Should be a very easy win for the Patriots.
GREEN BAY PACKERS at TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
Gamblor's Pick: Tampa Bay (+9.5)
Bet Amount: $42.08 (Hedge and Flip - 92%)
WHY I AGREE: Tampa is going to win a game sooner or later this season. And of course it won't be here. But Gamblor sees this line as an out-and-out trap and I can't disagree - especially since I've seen the line move down from its original value of +10. This is the only great (okay...decent) vs. horrible machup this week, and lots of bettors will be dumping money into Green Bay as a result. I don't have any genuine answers for how Tampa will manage to stay close with the Packers (um...let's say desperation?) but I firmly believe the result of this game will surprise a lot of people.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS at JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
Gamblor's Pick: Jacksonville (-6.5)
Bet Amount: $22.92 (Flip - 90%)
WHY IT'S WRONG: Jacksonville has shown that they're capable of being competitive in games against tough teams - let's not forget that nobody has come closer to beating the Colts this season. Then again, they got pummelled 41-0 in Seattle and only just barely beat St. Louis before losing to the winless Titans. Kansas City hasn't proven a damned thing. But they haven't really had a chance to - their schedule has included Baltimore, Philadelphia, the New York Giants, Dallas, and San Diego - and they beat Washington and should have beaten the Raiders, too. Jacksonville is nowhere near good enough to lay these kinds of points, even at home. Which, incidentally, is exactly how Gamblor sees it - but I'm personally envisioning a different outcome and a much closer game.
DETROIT LIONS at SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
Gamblor's Pick: Detroit (+10)
Bet Amount: $31.75 (Hedge)
WHY I AGREE: I'm not even entirely sure Seattle can beat Detroit, let along rout them as this line suggests. I know Seattle is supposed to be great at home, but a home crowd only really helps a good team - it doesn't do much for a lousy one (just ask Kansas City or the Lions). The public consistently underestimates Oakland's ability to keep games close (myself included), and I think Seattle is their mirror image in this regard. Everyone expects the Seahawks to serve up a magnificent offensive performance and blow away their opponents whenever Hasselbeck is healthy, and sometimes they do, but more often they serve up a generous helping of disappointment. Seattle has got a good track record against weak teams so far this year (beating Jacksonville 41-0 and rolling over St. Louis 28-0) but Detroit's offense should keep them in this game. There's no way I'm laying 10 points with a 2-5 team - even when they're playing against a 1-6 one.
CAROLINA PANTHERS at NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
Gamblor's Pick: Carolina (+13)
Bet Amount: $26.30 (Hedge)
WHY IT'S WRONG: Who or what on earth can stop Drew Brees? A Robotech warrior made of out kryptonite piloted by Chuck Yeager? A defense that includes six down linemen, nine linebackers, and a secondary featuring fourteen steroid-enhanced hybrid clones of Ronnie Lott and Darrell Green? I think it would be kind of funny if Thomas Morestead (the Saints' punter) waited until halftime to show up for one of their games, just to see if anyone would notice. I'm not happy taking anything less than 14.5 points against the Saints, so I'm picking them yet again here.
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS at NEW YORK GIANTS
Gamblor's Pick: San Diego (+4.5)
Bet Amount: $10.33 (Hedge)
WHY I AGREE: It all seems to be coming together for San Diego right now, and it seems an awful lot like they're stealing it from the New York Giants. Shawne Merriman has finally emerged bright-eyed and bushy-tailed from his tequila-induced slumber, Rivers is remembering that as long as he puts enough air under the ball one of his behemoth receivers will pull it down, and Darren Sproles will be getting more and more carries as Ladanian Tomlinson's age continues to show. By contrast, Eli Manning and the Giants can't seem to anything right lately and I swear Tom Coughlin is getting more senile by the hour. Curiously, the line for this game opened at 3.5 and has moved to 4.5 in response to the public's enthusiasm for the Giants, so this would have been one of those "middle" opportunities I was discussing earlier, with the target being a 4 point Giants victory. That's a very real possibility here.
TENNESSEE TITANS at SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
Gamblor's Pick: Tennessee (+4)
Bet Amount: $70.44 (Hedge and Flip - 92%)
WHY I AGREE: By a curious coincidence, this game also featured another middle opportunity - the spread opened at -5.5, meaning that a bet on Tennessee followed by a similar bet on San Francisco with the new spread of -4 would pay off double if the Niners won by 5 points. But I actually don't think that's likely to happen - I think there's a very strong possibility that Tennessee is going to win this game. It's certainly true that they're only just starting to dig out from the colossal hole they have found themselves in since the beginning of the season, but they have to be feeling quite fine about their 30-13 rout of Jacksonville last week. Having Vince Young under center is going to give them as sense of "New Directions" style glee, and they'll be facing a San Francisco team that just had their heart broken by Indianapolis. The Titans couldn't stop Maurice Jones-Drew, but the 49ers don't have anyone who is healthy or good enough to duplicate that feat, so they'll have to depend on Alex Smith to get their offense moving. He won't lose the game for him, but he won't win it either. And Vince Young is primed to become the next coming of Steve McNair - win quietly, win close, win ugly...but just win.
DALLAS COWBOYS at PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Gamblor's Pick: Dallas (+3)
Bet Amount: $9.02 (Flip - 86%)
WHY I AGREE: I'm still not convinced about the Eagles. They always seem to surprise everyone when the odds are stacked against them, but suffer a huge letdown when expectations are high. Factoring in the home field advantage, the spread tells me that this game should be a toss-up. Dallas has a lot of offensive talent, but didn't hold up well against the Giants. And considering how thoroughly the Eagles dominated the Giants last week, it's easy to envision a solid win for the Eagles. But I don't see that happening here - Andy Reid will find some way to blow it. Hopefully the Cowboys are smart enough to actually send someone with DeSean Jackson goes deep (there is NO excuse for the Giants failing to shut him down after seeing him burn the Redskins), and they'll be able to pull out an exciting win.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS at DENVER BRONCOS
Gamblor's Pick: Pittsburgh (-3)
Bet Amount: $15.22 (Flip Conflict - 90%)
WHY I AGREE: Denver has come back to earth with a resounding thud. Pittsburgh knows how to beat the Ravens, and they also know how to imitate them. Denver's weaknesses were very much on display last week. The Stellers will blitz Kyle Orton relentlessly, and he's too methodical to be able to take advantage of the man coverage. They'll get to him a lot. Ben Roethlesberger will helm a characteristically chaotic game, and the Steelers might only win by a few points, but they'll definitely win.
Week
Zack
Gamblor
Weighted Wins
Weighted Picks
Weighted Win %
Profit
Win
Lose
Push
Win
Lose
Push
1
7
9
-
9
7
-
1339
1727
77.5%
$155.71
2
9
7
-
11
5
-
970
1292
75.1%
$98.97
3
9
7
-
6
10
-
607
1552
39.1%
-$61.75
4
8
6
-
5
9
-
288
963
29.9%
-$70.33
5
6
8
-
6
8
-
655
1217
53.8%
$15.46
6
7
7
-
8
6
-
625
1231
50.8%
-$10.53
7
8
4
1
3
9
1
246
1161
21.2%
-$127.43
8
3
10
-
9
7
-
709
1548
45.8%
-$34.43
Total
57
58
1
54
61
1
5439
10691
50.9%
-$34.33
For legality purposes, this website does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.
UPDATE: The Giants line continues to see wild movement – it has shifted all the way to +1 and now the Eagles are considered underdogs. Gamblor now likes the Giants well enough to bet above the $5.00 minimum on them. I’d have rounded up anyhow, but somehow this makes me feel vindicated. The juice on the Buffalo game was very heavy (-120) so Gamblor doesn’t stand to win all that much on its second-largest bet of the week. Apologies to those who have seen their comments disappear – the old post was giving me formatting issues so I put it on waivers – DON’T THINK YOU WON’T GET CUT FROM THIS TEAM, WORDPRESS! An updated summary sheet is here for those who want to follow along at home.
Last week was an absolute nightmare for the computer, as favorites covered the spread in all but two instances (plus a push) and my season’s winnings so far went up in smoke. It was particularly heartbreaking to see Miami blow a lead of 21 points (especially considering they were getting an extra 6.5 points from the spread) and then get my hopes up by holding tough on their goal line to preserve the cover, only to toss up a completely meaningless pick-six at the end of the game. I was the beneficiary of an identical finish in Pittsburgh in my second-biggest bet of the week, so I suppose I ought to be grateful the week wasn’t even worse, but it’s hard to find much joy when your bets go 3-9-1 and your top bet loses by a score of 38-0. My own picks were pretty good, going 8-4-1, but that’s scant consolation for such an awful, awful week.
I wasn’t alone in my anguish last week – last week practically bankrupted a number of sportsbooks. Most of the games that featured lopsided betting on the favorites – New England (87%), Green Bay (91%), San Diego (91%), Indianapolis (95%), the New York Jets (76%), New Orleans (90%), and Philadelphia (89%) – ended up being blowouts and a lot of parlays paid off. In terms of competitive football, it was actually the most uninteresting weekend we’ve seen all year. The disparity in talent between NFL teams this year is pretty amazing; if the NFL were run like the Premier League in England you could expect a few teams to be relegated at the end of the season in favor of some of the more competitive college squads. From a fantasy perspective, though, it was an exciting week, as a number of players had spectacular offensive performances and lots of matchups turned into shootouts that weren’t decided until Monday night.
(To watch this video, right-click and hit play)
Fantasy football has sometimes been described as "dungeons and dragons for jocks". There are certainly a few parallels - each player (owner) develops a character (team) whose abilities are determined by a roll of the dice (random draft order). Players develop a deep affinity for their creation, and can spend inordinate amounts of time selecting a name and drawing sketches (designing logos) of their alter-ego. The campaign (season) is overseen by a dungeon master (commissioner) who manages the adventure and adjudicates disputes, but ultimately the success or failure of the players is left up to how well they allocate their resources such as weapons, spells, and magic items (quarterbacks, running backs, and wide receivers) with an element of random chance (injuries and turnovers) thrown in. Not to mention that participants can display a level of obsession that is terrifying to those unfamiliar with the game.
Proponents of fantasy football argue that since the games take place in the real world with flesh and blood players, and since real treasure is often awarded to the winner of the league, the two aren't all that similar. And although fantasy football has enjoyed a huge surge in popularity in recent years due to the accessibility of the internet, the game itself actually predates Dungeons and Dragons. The concept of fantasy football originated amongst a group of team employees and sportswriters in Oakland, who created the first league in 1962, just a few years after the invention of fantasy baseball. Dungeons and Dragons didn't surface until 1971, when Gary Gygax and Jeff Perren published Chainmail, a set of rules for warfare with miniature figurines (a pastime that lives on in such tabletop games as Warhammer 40K and the currently endangered Heroclix) that ultimately evolved into Dungeons and Dragons, the first box set of which was published by TSR in 1974.
Now of course most jocks wouldn't hesitate to stuff your head in a toilet if you accused them of playing with figurines of elven warriors and twelve-sided dice, but for Halloween, I thought it would be fun to count down 5 of the monsters from the AD&D's Monster Manual along with their 5 counterparts from the NFL. Taking over from here is the lovely Shi Ne of The Sports Report Girl.com.
Gamblor is doubling down this week, taking yet another broad selection of underdogs - but this time for even higher stakes. And as queasy as it makes me feel, I'm glad. It's not possible for the sportsbooks to take another beating like they did last week - it just won't happen. There's simply no way, or sports gambling as we know it will come to an end. Here's the picks.
HOUSTON TEXANS at BUFFALO BILLS
Gamblor's Pick: Buffalo (+3.5)
Bet Amount: $38.50 (Hedge)
WHY I AGREE: There's a general sense that on a good day, the Houston Texans can beat just about anybody. While this is certainly true of an offense that can put up so many points so fast, Houston's defense hasn't shown that they can stop anybody (except for Oakland, who doesn't count). Although Buffalo's fans are dying to get rid of Dick Jauron, they haven't yet given up on the team and are likely to show up in full force. Buffalo's got a bye week coming while Houston is looking ahead to their matchup with the heretofore invincible Colts next week, so as uneasy as it makes me feel to pick against the Houston points machine, I'm taking Buffalo here.
CLEVELAND BROWNS at CHICAGO BEARS
Gamblor's Pick: Cleveland (+13)
Bet Amount: $21.20 (Hedge)
WHY I AGREE: The Bears will certainly be stinging after last week's humiliating loss to Cincinnati. But it took Cincinnati until the very last seconds of overtime to beat Cleveland. So why such a large spread? Hint: it's because Cleveland sucks. Cutler hasn't turned out so great yet, but he won't be called on to do all that much here - expect the Bears to keep the ball on the ground against Cleveland's truly pathetic run defense - much as Green Bay did last week. The only problem is that this won't lead to blowout-level points. I just don't see Chicago putting enough points on the board to cover a spread this large, and I see this one turning out as Vegas' revenge on gamblers who saw all the big spreads last week get covered easily and are getting a bit too greedy.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS at DALLAS COWBOYS
Gamblor's Pick: Seattle (+9.5)
Bet Amount: $29.76 (Hedge)
WHY IT'S WRONG: I really have no idea what to expect from Seattle during any given week. I'm still convinced that they're terrible, but every time I put that in print they burn me. Then again, Dallas looked spectacular last week and Miles Austin looks like Calvin Johnson decided to dress up in a Cowboys uniform for Halloween just to experience what it's like to play for a winning team. Dallas is a very public team and their lines tend to get inflated, though Gamblor doesn't see that being the case here. A victory of greater than 9 points is a lot for this unreliable offense to deliver. I think they will probably succeed, but I'm no more confident of that than I am of the outcome of a coin toss.
SAINT LOUIS RAMS at DETROIT LIONS
Gamblor's Pick: St. Louis (+4)
Bet Amount: $35.52 (Hedge)
WHY IT'S WRONG: There's no line yet for this game. And I don't really care what it is. Detroit is a terrible team that can't stop anyone, but they actually can put of a few points of their own. St. Louis can do neither. It feels strange to describe any game as a routine blowout for the Lions, but that's what I see happening here.
NEW YORK GIANTS at PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Gamblor's Pick: New York Giants (-1)
Bet Amount: $7.81 (Flip)
WHY I AGREE: The books have been sliding this line towards Philadelphia all week long. Would you believe that this one opened up at -3? It's a pretty classic example of what Gamblor looks for - Vegas not giving the New York Giants the points they ought to be getting. Although looking at the score last week would convince you that Philadelphia won pretty convincingly, they actually looked terrible. They couldn't move the ball at all, and really only were able to build a big lead based on Jason Campbell's turnovers. I don't see them standing a chance against a Giants team that is looking to lash out against anyone - particularly a divisional rival. Tom Coughlin will have no trouble motivating his men for this contest, and I think they'll be able to win this one with ease.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Gamblor's Pick: San Francisco (+13)
Bet Amount: $14.69 (Hedge)
WHY IT'S WRONG: As I said before and intend to keep saying until someone makes me eat my words, I'm with the Colts all the way.
MIAMI DOLPHINS at NEW YORK JETS
Gamblor's Pick: New York Jets (-3.5)
Bet Amount: $2.79 (Flip)
WHY I AGREE: Nothing can help a team get their mojo back more than playing the Raiders. The Jets rushed for over three hundred yards against the Raiders, which is even more impressive when you consider the amazingly short fields that Jamarcus Russel was giving them to work with. Like all the other suckers who bet against New Orleans last week, I'm furious with Miami for blowing a 27.5 point (spread-adjusted) lead. After such a spectacular meltdown, I wouldn't trust them to carry my bag, let alone try to take control of a team like the Jets.
DENVER BRONCOS at BALTIMORE RAVENS
Gamblor's Pick: Denver (+3)
Bet Amount: $17.30 (Flip)
WHY I AGREE: Once again, Denver is being treated as equal to or inferior to a team with a far worse record than their own. They can only summon the energy for these contests so many times before they run out of gas, but this is a seriously disrespectful line. The only decent opponent Baltimore has beaten has been San Diego, and they would have been beaten there as well if it weren't for Ray Lewis' late-game heroics. Gamblor sees this line as a trap because Baltimore was so tough at home last season; it expects Denver to be getting more points. I think a more appropriate line would be +1.5 or so, but right now the money is pretty much split between the two teams. I like Denver here, pulling off one more win before their winning streak finally comes to an end next week against Pittsburgh.
OAKLAND RAIDERS at SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
Gamblor's Pick: Oakland (+16.5)
Bet Amount: $18.60 (Hedge)
WHY IT'S WRONG: I'm amazed that during the season so far, Gamblor has actually made money betting on the Raiders - even including last week's disaster, the computer has earned $9.84 from their victories against the spread - but I think this week is where that dives back down into negative territory. It's amazing to think that the Raiders practically beat San Diego in their opening game this year. The team hasn't gained or lost any signifincant personnel, but that doesn't matter to the oddmakers in the slightest - they're telling us loud and clear to expect Oakland to be blown out. But is that really how things are going to turn out? Home field advantage shouldn't matter too much; the annual Raiders-Chargers game in San Diego is famous for how many Raiders fans turn up in the stands. But I think what this game will come down to is coaching - Norv Turner is smart enough to make adjustments to his game plan based on what he saw in Week 1, while Tom Cable is still puzzling over the "shoelace matrix."
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS at TENNESSEE TITANS
Gamblor's Pick: Jacksonville (+3)
Bet Amount: $38.68 (Hedge)
WHY IT'S WRONG: Every week during the early part of the season, everyone expected the Titans to turn things around. This week, we said, is the week they finally get their first win. Well, it's been seven weeks so far, and literally every week the margin has gotten worse. Just look at the progression: -3 (OT), -3, -7, -20, -22, -59...and now they're favored? Vince Young is great at winning games, and I think if he starts here he'll be inspired to play his best football in ages. But Jacksonville already put up 37 points against the broken secondary of the Titans - they won't score as many this time around, but they'll score enough that the spread will factor in and put them over the top (if they don't win outright).
MINNESOTA VIKINGS at GREEN BAY PACKERS
Gamblor's Pick: Minnesota (+3)
Bet Amount: $23.62 (Hedge)
WHY I AGREE: A lot is being made out of Brett Farve's return to Green Bay this weekend, but I'm not actually all that concerned about it as a factor in this game. I think it's a lot simpler than that - Minnesota is the better team. They proved it when they beat the Packers at home - it was a very solid victory before Green Bay scored 10 points in the final 5 minutes to pull within a touchdown. The only decent team that Green Bay has beat this season was Chicago - and it took a late game drive to pull that one off. The points are a gift here - take 'em.
CAROLINA PANTHERS at ARIZONA CARDINALS
Gamblor's Pick: Carolina (+10)
Bet Amount: $17.85 (Hedge)
WHY I AGREE: Arizona's defense has been looking unbelievably fierce lately. And I'd expect them to eat Jake Delhomme for lunch. Arizona's offense has also been looking really tough, and should have an easy time working with the short fields they'll get after Delhomme inevitably turns it over two or three times. But something here makes me uneasy. Arizona isn't going to take Carolina seriously, and with San Francisco expected to lose to Indianapolis, they won't feel any pressure to win to hang onto their division lead. I doubt that the Cardinals will lose to the lowly Panthers (especially in front of their home crowd), but I do think that 10 points is too many for them to cover.
ATLANTA FALCONS at NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
Gamblor's Pick: Atlanta (+10)
Bet Amount: $21.57 (Hedge)
WHY IT'S WRONG: I'm not picking against New Orleans. I could talk myself into seeing reasons for Atlanta to keep this one close, but after last week it's going to take more than just 10 points for me to pick against the Saints.
Week
Zack
Gamblor
Weighted Wins
Weighted Picks
Weighted Win %
Profit
Win
Lose
Push
Win
Lose
Push
1
7
9
-
9
7
-
1339
1727
77.5%
$155.71
2
9
7
-
11
5
-
970
1292
75.1%
$98.97
3
9
7
-
6
10
-
607
1552
39.1%
-$61.75
4
8
6
-
5
9
-
288
963
29.9%
-$70.33
5
6
8
-
6
8
-
655
1217
53.8%
$15.46
6
7
7
-
8
6
-
625
1231
50.8%
-$10.53
7
8
4
1
3
9
1
246
1161
21.2%
-$127.43
Total
54
48
1
48
54
1
4730
9143
51.7%
$0.10
For legality purposes, this website does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.
Last week was an absolute nightmare for the computer, as favorites covered the spread in all but two instances (plus a push) and my season’s winnings so far went up in smoke. It was particularly heartbreaking to see Miami blow a lead of 21 points (especially considering they were getting an extra 6.5 points from the spread) and then get my hopes up by holding tough on their goal line to preserve the cover, only to toss up a completely meaningless pick-six at the end of the game. I was the beneficiary of an identical finish in Pittsburgh in my second-biggest bet of the week, so I suppose I ought to be grateful the week wasn’t even worse, but it’s hard to find much joy when your bets go 3-9-1 and your top bet loses by a score of 38-0. My own picks were pretty good, going 8-4-1, but that’s scant consolation for such an awful, awful week.
I wasn’t alone in my anguish last week – last week practically bankrupted a number of sportsbooks. Most of the games that featured lopsided betting on the favorites – New England (87%), Green Bay (91%), San Diego (91%), Indianapolis (95%), the New York Jets (76%), New Orleans (90%), and Philadelphia (89%) – ended up being blowouts and a lot of parlays paid off. In terms of competitive football, it was actually the most uninteresting weekend we’ve seen all year. The disparity in talent between NFL teams this year is pretty amazing; if the NFL were run like the Premier League in England you could expect a few teams to be relegated at the end of the season in favor of some of the more competitive college squads. From a fantasy perspective, though, it was an exciting week, as a number of players had spectacular offensive performances and lots of matchups turned into shootouts that weren’t decided until Monday night.
(To watch this video, right-click and hit play)
Fantasy football has sometimes been described as "dungeons and dragons for jocks". There are certainly a few parallels - each player (owner) develops a character (team) whose abilities are determined by a roll of the dice (random draft order). Players develop a deep affinity for their creation, and can spend inordinate amounts of time selecting a name and drawing sketches (designing logos) of their alter-ego. The campaign (season) is overseen by a dungeon master (commissioner) who manages the adventure and adjudicates disputes, but ultimately the success or failure of the players is left up to how well they allocate their resources such as weapons, spells, and magic items (quarterbacks, running backs, and wide receivers) with an element of random chance (injuries and turnovers) thrown in. Not to mention that participants can display a level of obsession that is terrifying to those unfamiliar with the game.
Proponents of fantasy football argue that since the games take place in the real world with flesh and blood players, and since real treasure is often awarded to the winner of the league, the two aren't all that similar. And although fantasy football has enjoyed a huge surge in popularity in recent years due to the accessibility of the internet, the game itself actually predates Dungeons and Dragons. The concept of fantasy football originated amongst a group of team employees and sportswriters in Oakland, who created the first league in 1962, just a few years after the invention of fantasy baseball. Dungeons and Dragons didn't surface until 1971, when Gary Gygax and Jeff Perren published Chainmail, a set of rules for warfare with miniature figurines (a pastime that lives on in such tabletop games as Warhammer 40K and the currently endangered Heroclix) that ultimately evolved into Dungeons and Dragons, the first box set of which was published by TSR in 1974.
Now of course most jocks wouldn't hesitate to stuff your head in a toilet if you accused them of playing with figurines of elven warriors and twelve-sided dice, but for Halloween, I thought it would be fun to count down 5 of the monsters from the AD&D's Monster Manual along with their 5 counterparts from the NFL. Taking over from here is the lovely Shi Ne of The Sports Report Girl.com.
Gamblor is doubling down this week, taking yet another broad selection of underdogs - but this time for even higher stakes. And as queasy as it makes me feel, I'm glad. It's not possible for the sportsbooks to take another beating like they did last week - it just won't happen. There's simply no way, or sports gambling as we know it will come to an end. Here's the picks.
HOUSTON TEXANS
at
BUFFALO BILLS
Gamblor's Pick: Buffalo (+3.5)
Bet Amount: $39.06 (Hedge)
WHY I AGREE: There's a general sense that on a good day, the Houston Texans can beat just about anybody. While this is certainly true of an offense that can put up so many points so fast, Houston's defense hasn't shown that they can stop anybody (except for Oakland, who doesn't count). Although Buffalo's fans are dying to get rid of Dick Jauron, they haven't yet given up on the team and are likely to show up in full force. Buffalo's got a bye week coming while Houston is looking ahead to their matchup with the heretofore invincible Colts next week, so as uneasy as it makes me feel to pick against the Houston points machine, I'm taking Buffalo here.
CLEVELAND BROWNS
at
CHICAGO BEARS
Gamblor's Pick: Cleveland (+13.5)
Bet Amount: $23.43 (Hedge)
WHY I AGREE: The Bears will certainly be stinging after last week's humiliating loss to Cincinnati. But it took Cincinnati until the very last seconds of overtime to beat Cleveland. So why such a large spread? Hint: it's because Cleveland sucks. Cutler hasn't turned out so great yet, but he won't be called on to do all that much here - expect the Bears to keep the ball on the ground against Cleveland's truly pathetic run defense - much as Green Bay did last week. The only problem is that this won't lead to blowout-level points. I just don't see Chicago putting enough points on the board to cover a spread this large, and I see this one turning out as Vegas' revenge on gamblers who saw all the big spreads last week get covered easily and are getting a bit too greedy.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
at
DALLAS COWBOYS
Gamblor's Pick: Seattle (+9.5)
Bet Amount: $31.99 (Hedge)
WHY IT'S WRONG: I really have no idea what to expect from Seattle during any given week. I'm still convinced that they're terrible, but every time I put that in print they burn me. Then again, Dallas looked spectacular last week and Miles Austin looks like Calvin Johnson decided to dress up in a Cowboys uniform for Halloween just to experience what it's like to play for a winning team. Dallas is a very public team and their lines tend to get inflated, though Gamblor doesn't see that being the case here. A victory of greater than 9 points is a lot for this unreliable offense to deliver. I think they will probably succeed, but I'm no more confident of that than I am of the outcome of a coin toss.
SAINT LOUIS RAMS
at
DETROIT LIONS
Gamblor's Pick: St. Louis (+4.5)
Bet Amount: $39.06 (Hedge)
WHY IT'S WRONG: There's no line yet for this game. And I don't really care what it is. Detroit is a terrible team that can't stop anyone, but they actually can put of a few points of their own. St. Louis can do neither. It feels strange to describe any game as a routine blowout for the Lions, but that's what I see happening here.
NEW YORK GIANTS
at
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Gamblor's Pick: New York Giants (Pk)
Bet Amount: $2.23 (Flip)
WHY I AGREE: The books have been sliding this line towards Philadelphia all week long. Would you believe that this one opened up at -3? It's a pretty classic example of what Gamblor looks for - Vegas not giving the New York Giants the points they ought to be getting. Although looking at the score last week would convince you that Philadelphia won pretty convincingly, they actually looked terrible. They couldn't move the ball at all, and really only were able to build a big lead based on Jason Campbell's turnovers. I don't see them standing a chance against a Giants team that is looking to lash out against anyone - particularly a divisional rival. Tom Coughlin will have no trouble motivating his men for this contest, and I think they'll be able to win this one with ease.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
at
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Gamblor's Pick: San Francisco (+13)
Bet Amount: $15.06 (Hedge)
WHY IT'S WRONG: As I said before and intend to keep saying until someone makes me eat my words, I'm with the Colts all the way.
MIAMI DOLPHINS
at
NEW YORK JETS
Gamblor's Pick: New York Jets (-3.5)
Bet Amount: $2.79 (Flip)
WHY I AGREE: Nothing can help a team get their mojo back more than playing the Raiders. The Jets rushed for over three hundred yards against the Raiders, which is even more impressive when you consider the amazingly short fields that Jamarcus Russel was giving them to work with. Like all the other suckers who bet against New Orleans last week, I'm furious with Miami for blowing a 27.5 point (spread-adjusted) lead. After such a spectacular meltdown, I wouldn't trust them to carry my bag, let alone try to take control of a team like the Jets.
DENVER BRONCOS
at
BALTIMORE RAVENS
Gamblor's Pick: Denver (+3)
Bet Amount: $16.18 (Flip)
WHY I AGREE: Once again, Denver is being treated as equal to or inferior to a team with a far worse record than their own. They can only summon the energy for these contests so many times before they run out of gas, but this is a seriously disrespectful line. The only decent opponent Baltimore has beaten has been San Diego, and they would have been beaten there as well if it weren't for Ray Lewis' late-game heroics. Gamblor sees this line as a trap because Baltimore was so tough at home last season; it expects Denver to be getting more points. I think a more appropriate line would be +1.5 or so, but right now the money is pretty much split between the two teams. I like Denver here, pulling off one more win before their winning streak finally comes to an end next week against Pittsburgh.
OAKLAND RAIDERS
at
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
Gamblor's Pick: Oakland (+16.5)
Bet Amount: $18.41 (Hedge)
WHY IT'S WRONG: I'm amazed that during the season so far, Gamblor has actually made money betting on the Raiders - even including last week's disaster, the computer has earned $9.84 from their victories against the spread - but I think this week is where that dives back down into negative territory. It's amazing to think that the Raiders practically beat San Diego in their opening game this year. The team hasn't gained or lost any signifincant personnel, but that doesn't matter to the oddmakers in the slightest - they're telling us loud and clear to expect Oakland to be blown out. But is that really how things are going to turn out? Home field advantage shouldn't matter too much; the annual Raiders-Chargers game in San Diego is famous for how many Raiders fans turn up in the stands. But I think what this game will come down to is coaching - Norv Turner is smart enough to make adjustments to his game plan based on what he saw in Week 1, while Tom Cable is still puzzling over the "shoelace matrix."
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
at
TENNESSEE TITANS
Gamblor's Pick: Jacksonville (+3)
Bet Amount: $39.61 (Hedge)
WHY IT'S WRONG: Every week during the early part of the season, everyone expected the Titans to turn things around. This week, we said, is the week they finally get their first win. Well, it's been seven weeks so far, and literally every week the margin has gotten worse. Just look at the progression: -3 (OT), -3, -7, -20, -22, -59...and now they're favored? Vince Young is great at winning games, and I think if he starts here he'll be inspired to play his best football in ages. But Jacksonville already put up 37 points against the broken secondary of the Titans - they won't score as many this time around, but they'll score enough that the spread will factor in and put them over the top (if they don't win outright).
MINNESOTA VIKINGS
at
GREEN BAY PACKERS
Gamblor's Pick: Minnesota (+3)
Bet Amount: $24.18 (Hedge)
WHY I AGREE: A lot is being made out of Brett Farve's return to Green Bay this weekend, but I'm not actually all that concerned about it as a factor in this game. I think it's a lot simpler than that - Minnesota is the better team. They proved it when they beat the Packers at home - it was a very solid victory before Green Bay scored 10 points in the final 5 minutes to pull within a touchdown. The only decent team that Green Bay has beat this season was Chicago - and it took a late game drive to pull that one off. The points are a gift here - take 'em.
CAROLINA PANTHERS
at
ARIZONA CARDINALS
Gamblor's Pick: Carolina (+10)
Bet Amount: $17.11 (Hedge)
WHY I AGREE: Arizona's defense has been looking unbelievably fierce lately. And I'd expect them to eat Jake Delhomme for lunch. Arizona's offense has also been looking really tough, and should have an easy time working with the short fields they'll get after Delhomme inevitably turns it over two or three times. But something here makes me uneasy. Arizona isn't going to take Carolina seriously, and with San Francisco expected to lose to Indianapolis, they won't feel any pressure to win to hang onto their division lead. I doubt that the Cardinals will lose to the lowly Panthers (especially in front of their home crowd), but I do think that 10 points is too many for them to cover.
ATLANTA FALCONS
at
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
Gamblor's Pick: Atlanta (+10)
Bet Amount: $21.20 (Hedge)
WHY IT'S WRONG: I'm not picking against New Orleans. I could talk myself into seeing reasons for Atlanta to keep this one close, but after last week it's going to take more than just 10 points for me to pick against the Saints.
Week
Zack
Gamblor
Weighted Wins
Weighted Picks
Weighted Win %
Profit
Win
Lose
Push
Win
Lose
Push
1
7
9
-
9
7
-
1339
1727
77.5%
$155.71
2
9
7
-
11
5
-
970
1292
75.1%
$98.97
3
9
7
-
6
10
-
607
1552
39.1%
-$61.75
4
8
6
-
5
9
-
288
963
29.9%
-$70.33
5
6
8
-
6
8
-
655
1217
53.8%
$15.46
6
7
7
-
8
6
-
625
1231
50.8%
-$10.53
7
8
4
1
3
9
1
246
1161
21.2%
-$127.43
Total
54
48
1
48
54
1
4730
9143
51.7%
$0.10
For legality purposes, this website does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.
UPDATE: There were two major moves in the lines since Wednesday. Pittsburgh surrendered another 1.5 points to Minnesota, closing at -5.5. Which means Gamblor really adores Pittsburgh now, even more than it already did. And (in my sportsbook at least) they took Green Bay at Cleveland off the board for a while and when it came back it has moved a full 2 points – from +7 to +9. While that’s not very encouraging (it reeks of panic) on a gut level, Gamblor sees this spread as being a little closer to where it belongs, and thus it upped its bet a little bit. Here’s a revised, printable summary sheet in pdf form. Good luck this week!
UPDATE 2: I’ve got something special lined up for my Halloween feature next week, including an appearance by a very sexy special guest, so be sure to stop by!
Last week turned out to be a mirror image of Week 5, in that the computer put together a winning set of picks (8-6) but prioritized its bets poorly so it lost a little money. Three of its correct picks came in games where it didn’t have any actual money on the line, and it missed its top pick (Giants). The morning session was a disaster, as Minnesota managed to piss away a seventeen point lead in the fourth quarter and I got cheated out of a push on yet another failed goal line stand – this time by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. But the afternoon featured a very nice turnaround, as Gamblor hit on its #2, #3, and #4 bets – including a huge upset in Oakland that nobody in their right mind would have predicted. Effectively the computer broke even, coming in with a weighted win percentage of 50.8% and losing $10 due to the effect of the juice. A summary of last week’s performance is here.
Last week, if Tom Brady had injured himself on the first series of the second half, I’d have injured myself from laughing so hard about it. And I wouldn’t have felt ashamed for it, either. Aside for the pain, Tom Brady would have been fine – he’d have to suffer another miserable winter convalescing in Brazil with his supermodel wife, but that’s about it. I’ve got nothing against Tom Brady. No, I’d be laughing because it would be a very fine comeuppance for Bill Belichick, who courted disaster by sending his star player back onto a snowy field to risk injury in a game that the Patriots were leading 45-0. Apologists for Belichick have zeroed in on the fact that the Patriots haven’t really been in sync as a team and suggested that playing more minutes together would help their offense develop a rhythm they haven’t had since 2007. That’s horseshit. With the way Tennessee’s secondary had completely given up, there’s nothing the Patriots could have accomplished at Foxboro Stadium that they couldn’t have accomplished on a practice field running seven-on-seven drills against their second-team defense. It was an incredibly arrogant and stupid coaching move to send Brady back out to pile up points against a defense that had already been thoroughly humiliated and would be looking to lash out. And lash out they did – defensive lineman Tony Brown got flagged for roughing the passer on the very first play of the second half.
UPDATE: Some minor changes, but nothing worth writing about. Updated summary of wagers is here.
After two disappointing weeks in a row, the computer found its footing again and had a decent week. Although Gamblor’s picks were 6-8, it prioritized very well – hitting its #1, #3, and #4 picks. This was strong enough to finish with a weighted win percentage of 53.8% and turn a small profit of $15 (a summary sheet is here). If either of the two games that ended with goal-line stands (one that succeeded by the Arizona Cardinals and one that failed by the New York Jets) had turned out the other way, it would have been much better. Having Detroit cover through the back door against Pittsburgh was a nice treat, and instead of regretting the fact that I managed to sneak in a bet in on Jacksonville just in time to lose it, I’ll share the joy of other gamblers and laugh at how much money Vegas threw away by setting an insane line in an Indianapolis game that contained no surprises whatsoever. Although those goddamned Seahawks continued to make me look like an ass, the trends I outlined last week did a good job of proving my point that trends shouldn’t be trusted. If you’d bet on all five of the trends that I discussed (including the ones that overlapped each other), you’d have gone 4-6.
Despite my passion for the subject of politics, I figured I’d make a conscious effort to refrain from preaching in this column. Of course, with Rush Limbaugh having been considered to take part in a bid to buy the St. Louis Rams, that might have ended up being pretty difficult. But Jon Cummings has already got that subject covered for Popdose, so instead I’ll share my thoughts about the Nobel Peace Prize. Last week, when a clearly astonished Barack Obama was announced as the winner, many conservative Americans felt the same way that Vikings fans would feel if Brett Farve had been awarded the MVP before the season had even begun. The president is like America’s quarterback – he doesn’t call the plays (Congress does that – which shows you how dysfunctional a team would be if the plays were called by a committee), but he executes them and ultimately gets credit or blame for the team’s performance during the season. For those who thought the U.S. should have signed the veteran McCain to the starting job, seeing Obama receive the Nobel prize causes all kinds of conflicted loyalties. (more…)
UPDATE: The only line that changed was the Raiders line – which moved down to +14.5 from +16, which means the computer thankfully wants to risk just a little less on the Raiders. Some of Gamblor’s bet amounts changed due to fluctuations in the models, but nothing more than a few cents either way. There’s STILL no line for the Seattle game, but the computer sees these teams as pretty evenly matched so it will be taking the points in this one regardless of who’s getting them. A final summary sheet is here.
Last week was the worst in Gamblor’s season so far, both in terms of weighted win percentage (29.9%) and money lost (-$70.33). My own picks were fine, going 8-6, but the computer’s finished at 5-9. Surprisingly, I don’t feel all that bad about it. The computer is going to have some bad weeks, and I’d prefer that they happen when there’s not all that much money on the line. Plus, its biggest pick (Detroit) was looking pretty damned good up through halftime and until about 4 seconds into the third quarter. I’m still up $120 for the season so far, and the season’s weighted win percentage is still at a perfectly healthy 57.9%, so I’ll shrug off last week and move on.
About once a week, the predictions of the Hedge model and the Flip model coincide and both models agree on an underdog in one of the games. This means that the outcomes from the various simulation schemes range from less than 55% to sometimes as high as 90% in favor of one team. But this isn’t an indication of supreme confidence, all that it’s actually showing is that the statistics for one (or both) of the teams are pretty volatile. So far this has turned up four times this year, and it’s gone 2-2. Nothing special. But the weighted win percentage is out of this world at 78.5% (both of the winners were big bets and both of the losers were little ones). If we look back through all of last season, the weighted win percentage was still pretty incredible — 71.1% over all seventeen weeks. This week, unless the spread moves quite a bit, both models will be agreeing on Atlanta as an underdog of 2.5 points at San Francisco. So with these kinds of percentages, why don’t I consider this to be a special situation and put down a huge bet on Atlanta?
Simple. The “Agree” bet doesn’t provide any real advantage. Sure, in 2008 it came in at 71.1% – but in 2007, it performed at a simply awful rate of 37.4%. In 2006 it was strong again, at 65.3%, but in 2005 it was a bottomless pit of despair at 36.2%. Throughout the lifetime of the data back to 1998, this particular situation performs at a weighted win percentage of 55.0%, almost exactly identical to the Gamblor’s overall performance with the weighing scheme I’ve chosen to use. The fallacy of betting based on — or against — trends is what I’ll be talking about in this week’s feature.
(To watch this video, right-click and hit €œplay€)
Top 5 NFL Betting Trends You Should Be Wary Of:
Trends are a very dangerous temptation in sports betting. In my opinion, paying attention to trends against the spread in the NFL makes about sense as looking for trends at a roulette table. They don’t exist. If the ball has landed on black nine times out the last ten, the likelihood that it will land on red (or black) on the next spin is not altered in the slightest. For every arcane trend you can find that virtually guarantees a victory for one side, you can find another equally cromulent trend that will tell you the exact opposite. You should no more trust an ongoing trend to continue than you should bet against it under the assumption that Vegas has spotted the trend and is taking measures to reverse it. With that in mind, here are five NFL trends you should know about — and then proceed to completely ignore:
5. Playing Surface. I haven’t programmed Gamblor to make predictions about the over/under, but everything it needs is there. I’m just not sure whether it’s possible to gain any kind of edge. A lot of gamblers believe that paying attention to field conditions can be pretty lucrative, particularly when concerned with the over/under. The 3-0 disaster between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Miami Dolphins at a sodden Heinz Field in 2007 was a classic example of how a messy field can shut down scoring in a football game. Since the Arizona Cardinals moved into their new stadium in 2006, the games have been played on a grass field that grows outside in the perfect Arizona sun and then gets moved inside the dome for the games. It’s a unique situation which has led to a 19-7 record for gamblers who bet on the over. This week, the Cardinals are hosting the Houston Texans. The Cardinals defense is remarkably porous, having only held opponents to less than 17 points just eight times in their last 67 games (from 2005 to present). Houston has a potentially explosive offense and a similar philosophy of indifference when it comes to stopping their opponents. The over/under on this contest is at 48 points, which is on the upper end of the range — but still rather appealing considering the way these teams match up.
4. Teams Coming Off a Bye. When I first programmed Gamblor, I tried to give a lot of consideration to teams that were coming off a bye week. I thought that these teams would play better as a result of the rest, or that bettors would overcompensate for this and there would be an advantage in the opposite direction. I was wrong on both counts – statistically, the bye week had no impact whatsoever on teams that were playing, or the teams they were playing against. This week Atlanta, Philadelphia, Arizona, and Carolina all had the previous week off. Of these, Philadelphia has been red-hot in their return to action, going 11-0 straight up and 9-2 against the spread. Philadelphia has been looking great so far this season, but this trend is running headfirst into two other trends as the Eagles host the winless Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
3. Big Time Underdogs. There are only three or four games every year where the spread exceeds two touchdowns — so the fact that we’ll see two such games this week (Oakland at New York, Tampa Bay at Philadelphia) is quite an unusual occurrence. Shocking upsets are very rare in this situation, but a lucky play at the beginning of the game can be all it takes for the underdog to keep things close enough for the spread to factor in, and laying so many points as a favorite leaves a lot of room for a backdoor cover after the starters have finished playing. It’s always very stressful to bet the underdog in what’s expected to be such a lopsided game, but underdogs playing on the road that are benefiting from a spread of more than 14 points are 14-4 since 2005. Tampa Bay is getting a 15 point boost in Philadelphia, and the Raiders are getting 16 points against the Giants. I’ll be nervous if the spread drifts any higher for either game because I’ll interpret that to mean the books are trying to scare money off of the favorite — but for spreads of 16 or more, the underdog has covered the last seven times in a row.
2. Winless Teams. There’s a philosophy that teams who have made it four or more games into their season without winning yet tend to get great value against the spread, because nobody wants to bet against such a worthless crew of losers. Plus, the winless team will be playing their hearts out against an opponent that is most likely phoning it in. The philosophy behind this makes sense — and the numbers back it up quite well. Since 2000, teams with records of 0-4 or worse are 52-28 against the spread. With a win percentage of 65.0%, that’s a pretty seductive trend. This week Tampa Bay, St. Louis, Kansas City, Tennessee, and Cleveland will all be striving to lock down their first win. I wouldn’t really say that any of them have a realistic chance of winning outright, but everyone except Tennessee is facing a spread of 9 or more (and the Titans line, which is only 3.5 against the Colts, looks an awful lot like a trap!).
1. Hello, Good-Bye. The incomparable Walter alerted me to this one, and it’s pretty hard to ignore. It’s been 2-0 so far this season, and it’s been 33-6 since 2000. So what’s this magnificent trend? It’s to bet on favorites of 6.5 or more points in their last week before a bye. A spread of 6.5 or more points indicates that the favorite is expected to fully dominate the game. And with nothing on the immediate horizon to distract them, players can focus entirely on the game at hand. Furthermore, the players know that if their coaches see them dog it against a clearly inferior opponent, they’ll be doing nothing but running drills for the next five days. This week, the Cowboys are headed to Kansas City to face the winless Chiefs and although the Cowboys’ season has been pretty disappointing thus far, they can avoid a lot of punishment in practice the following week by putting together a solid win over the Chiefs.
Gamblor is loving underdogs again this week, and frankly, I’m glad. Favorites have been ruling the season so far (34-27 against the spread). It’s very unlikely that we’ll ever see a repeat of 2005, known as the “year of the favorite,” when favorites covered the spread at an astonishing rate of 55% and many sportsbooks flirted with bankruptcy. So you can expect the underdogs to bounce back with a vengeance as the season wears on. Here’s the summary of bets for Week 5. Good luck! (more…)
As the financial divide between fan and athlete grows with each year, our superstitions are becoming all that we have to identify with our favorite teams. We rarely get to the stadium these days, because we can’t afford tickets. And when we do, too often we find ourselves sitting next to some polo shirt-wearing bozo who arrives late, yaps on his cell phone, and leaves early to avoid traffic.
So we hold fast to our lucky jerseys, rally caps, and gameday superstitions, because we know that the slightest deviation from the rituals will, through a macabre act of synchronicity, cause our team to lose, crush our dreams and bring shame upon our community. We want – no, need – to think that, in some way, we have a positive impact on their team’s performance.
But what happens when an average fan’s actions genuinely hurt the team? This is the heart of Big Fan, the new dark film by Robert Siegel (The Wrestler). It stars comedian Patton Oswalt (Ratatouille) as Paul Aufiero, a 36-year old parking attendant who still lives with his mother – his childhood bedroom decked out with New York Giants memorabilia (the late-80s vintage “SIMMS 11” New York license plate was a great touch). (more…)
CHICAGO BEARS
BUFFALO BILLS
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
DETROIT LIONS
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
CINCINNATI BENGALS
DENVER BRONCOS
ATLANTA FALCONS
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
DALLAS COWBOYS
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
BALTIMORE RAVENS
WASHINGTON REDSKINS
ARIZONA CARDINALS
BALTIMORE RAVENS
MIAMI DOLPHINS
GREEN BAY PACKERS
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
DETROIT LIONS
CAROLINA PANTHERS
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
DALLAS COWBOYS
PITTSBURGH STEELERS
HOUSTON TEXANS
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
SAINT LOUIS RAMS
DENVER BRONCOS
![big_fan_377x566[1]](http://popdose.com/wp-content/uploads/big_fan_377x5661.jpg "big_fan_377x566[1]")
As the financial divide between fan and athlete grows with each year, our superstitions are becoming all that we have to identify with our favorite teams. We rarely get to the stadium these days, because we can’t afford tickets. And when we do, too often we find ourselves sitting next to some polo shirt-wearing bozo who arrives late, yaps on his cell phone, and leaves early to avoid traffic.
