Gamblor Raids Again: Week 16 NFL Picks

Gamblor was actually looking pretty sharp last weekend, having put together a tidy profit of about $200 by the end of the weekend.  Unfortunately, it lost all its profits and much, much more on Monday night as the Steelers got completely dominated by the 49ers in a game that Gamblor thought was a huge trap.  The stats for the week were 8-7 with a weighted win percentage of 25.1% for Gamblor and 8-3 and 31.6% for Son of Gamblor.  The total (theoretical, cause Gamblor is out of money) loss for the week was another $617.82.  It’s really been unbelievable how bad the computer has been this season – it has managed just two winning weeks out of 15 so far.  Odds are you’d do much, much better just flipping a coin.

Here’s the computer’s picks for Week 16, for what it’s worth.

HOUSTON TEXANS at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS Computer’s Pick: Indianapolis (+6) Bet Amount: $1.80 (Consensus)

COMMENTS: Teams that break epic losing streaks often get inspired and win two in a row.  I think that will happen here.  Houston is seriously running out of gas and won’t be able to match the Colts’ intensity.

OAKLAND RAIDERS at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS Computer’s Pick: Kansas City (-2.5) Bet Amount: $17.82 (Conflict)

COMMENTS: The Raiders are engaged in a pretty epic late-season collapse, and will get their asses handed to them by a Kansas City team that is undoubtedly riding high after taking down undefeated Green Bay last week.

DENVER BRONCOS at BUFFALO BILLS Computer’s Pick: Buffalo (+3) Bet Amount: $5.23 (Consensus)

COMMENTS: I think the magic is over for Denver.  I think Buffalo will eke out a win as a home dog.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS at TENNESSEE TITANS Computer’s Pick: Jacksonville (+7) Bet Amount: $6.14 (Conflict)

COMMENTS: Both these teams won’t bother to show up for this game, so I think Jacksonville will be able to lock down the win against the spread after the game ends with a final score of 6-3.  I don’t really know or care who is going to actually win.

ARIZONA CARDINALS at CINCINNATI BENGALS Computer’s Pick: Arizona (+4) Bet Amount: $0.35 (Gamblor only)

COMMENTS: The Cardinals are looking pretty hot, but this is a tough game for them to play.  I think Cincinnati will be able to win at home by more than a single scores, so that’s who I’d take here.

MIAMI DOLPHINS at NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS Computer’s Pick: Miami (+10) Bet Amount: $83.16 (Consensus)

COMMENTS: As it did at the beginning of the year, the computer is stupidly loading up on Miami against the Patriots.  Since the computer’s big bets have been reliably awful this year, I’d go the other way and ride the Patriots.

CLEVELAND BROWNS at BALTIMORE RAVENS Computer’s Pick: Cleveland (+13) Bet Amount: $5.84 (Conflict)

COMMENTS: Can Baltimore actually cover this spread?  Yes.  Yes.  A hundred times yes.  Cleveland is going to get murdered in this game.

NEW YORK GIANTS at NEW YORK JETS Computer’s Pick: New York Giants (+3) Bet Amount: $6.57 (Gamblor only)

COMMENTS: I don’t see a clear winner here.  I like that the Giants are essentially getting a free home game here, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they make the most of it against the slumping Jets.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS at WASHINGTON REDSKINS Computer’s Pick: Washington (-6.5) Bet Amount: $20.99 (Consensus)

COMMENTS: I can’t conceive of the Redskins beating anybody by more than a field goal, so I like the Vikings here, despite their issues.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS at CAROLINA PANTHERS Computer’s Pick: Tampa Bay (+7.5) Bet Amount: $6.36 (Gamblor only)

COMMENTS: Tampa Bay is completely mailing it in.  They won’t bother putting up much of a fight against a Carolina team that is playing for pride and actually has the ability to light up the scoreboard at times.

SAINT LOUIS RAMS at PITTSBURGH STEELERS Computer’s Pick: Pittsburgh (-16) Bet Amount: $102.04 (Consensus)

COMMENTS: I’m not sure if this spread will hold (it’s predicated on the idea that Roethlisberger will play) but even if he does, it’s way too much.  I’ll stick with my insistence that Pittsburgh simply cannot be trusted to cover large spreads, regardless of who they’re playing against.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS at DETROIT LIONS Computer’s Pick: San Diego (+2.5) Bet Amount: $58.81 (Consensus)

COMMENTS: San Diego is muy caliente, and they’re going to be pushing really hard to claim the AFC West.  I like them a lot here.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS at SEATTLE SEAHAWKS Computer’s Pick: Seattle (+2) Bet Amount: $6.52 (Consensus)

COMMENTS: I don’t see why this spread isn’t larger.  Seattle’s greatest strength (Marshawn Lynch) is going to be completely neutralized by San Francisco’s greatest strength (their run defense).  And all other factors point to San Francisco winning easily.  Sounds fishy to me.  I’ll be a contrarian here and take the Seahawks.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES at DALLAS COWBOYS Computer’s Pick: Philadelphia (+1.5) Bet Amount: $7.54 (Son of Gamblor only)

COMMENTS: This game should mean a lot to both teams, but it’s pretty much the heart of choking season for the Cowboys, so I expect them to find some way to throw this game away.  I wouldn’t be surprised if the Eagles actually blow them out.

CHICAGO BEARS at GREEN BAY PACKERS Computer’s Pick: Chicago (+13) Bet Amount: $5.58 (Gamblor only)

COMMENTS: Teams that have long winning streaks snapped also often lose two games in a row, and with the pressure off I think Green Bay will probably phone this one in – particularly if San Francisco loses and the Packers are assured home field advantage throughout the playoffs.  I think we might see a surprise victory for the Bears here, and at the very least a cover.

ATLANTA FALCONS at NEW ORLEANS SAINTS Computer’s Pick: Atlanta (+7) Bet Amount: $1.29 (Conflict)

COMMENTS: Everyone will be hoping for a shootout to decide their fantasy football championships, and I think these teams will deliver.  Both are looking sharp and hungry for the postseason, and while it’s very unlikely that Atlanta can catch New Orleans for the division, both teams will be eager to get a win here.  It’s fully possible that the game goes down to the wire, or at least the spread portion of the game, but I still like Atlanta getting the seven points.