I Call Him SON OF GAMBLOR! Week 14 NFL Picks

What can I say? The computer went 10-3 on its bets last weekend, including a staggering 10-1 on Sunday. Unfortunately, the one bet it missed on Sunday was more than all the other ten bets combined. Looks like Gamblor was right – five points was way too much for Miami to be laying at home. So the computer ended up losing about $450 (which really isn’t so bad considering it lost a $900 bet) and its season’s winnings are back down below $1000. Special thanks to the readers who kicked my butt into gear to get things posted this week – and special apologies to everyone who bet on Indianapolis and got screwed by what was probably the nastiest backdoor cover of the year we’ve seen thus far. I’m sorry to get this posted so late – I’m in Washington D.C. for work. Gamblor’s picks are below; I’ll fill in my own thoughts as I have the opportunity during my travel day tomorrow.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS at TENNESSEE TITANS Computer’s Pick: Tennessee (+4) Bet Amount: $8.94 (Gamblor only)

COMMENTS: You might have noticed that I haven’t been keeping track of how well my *own* picks have performed this year. It’s not because I’m hiding anything – I expect my own picks to do poorly – that’s why I hired the computer to make bets for me. I’ll tally them up at the end of the year and see how I did. After the fact, it’s hard for me to claim that I would have seen this one coming – I think I would have jumped on the wagon that most unfortunate gamblers did and get jobbed by the most vicious backdoor cover of the year (thus far). Fortunately for my bank balance, Gamblor saw this one coming (and yes, I did get my bet in on time).

OAKLAND RAIDERS at JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS Computer’s Pick: Jacksonville (-4) Bet Amount: $208.95 (Consensus)

COMMENTS: This game is absolutely brimming with potential to be the most depressing game of the year for me. Not only do I have to bet against my Raiders, but they’re getting more than three points, which leaves the door wide open for them to lose by a late field goal or in overtime and both break my heart and break my piggy bank. Do I like this bet? Considering how pathetically they performed against the Miami Dolphins two weeks ago, I love it. Considering how competent they looked against the San Diego Chargers last week, I’m worried. But Jacksonville is a solid, if unspectacular, squad, and they’ll be playing at home with a chance at making the playoffs – there’s no chance they won’t show up. With the Raiders you never know. I think this one will turn out fine for the computer.

CINCINNATI BENGALS at PITTSBURGH STEELERS Computer’s Pick: Cincinnati (+8.5) Bet Amount: $0.58 (Gamblor only)

COMMENTS: Games that feature the Steelers often end up having the shadiest finishes that affect the point spread and typically screw over the majority of the public. But every once in a while the team throws the public a bone and delivers a blowout win that restores the public’s faith. I believe this will be that game.

CLEVELAND BROWNS at BUFFALO BILLS Computer’s Pick: Buffalo (-1) Bet Amount: $17.06 (Consensus)

COMMENTS: Cleveland has got to be feeling pretty good about themselves after last week’s victory in Miami. I was happy to see them win – once I realized that Miami wasn’t going to cover the four-point spread. My attitude is that if a team is going to lose me money, they might as well lose the damned game as well.  Why?  Because screw them, that’s why.

NEW YORK GIANTS at MINNESOTA VIKINGS Computer’s Pick: Minnesota (+3) Bet Amount: $2.44 (Consensus)

COMMENTS: This game was first delayed due to travel issues caused by a huge snowstorm, and now is delayed even further due to a partial collapse of the Metrodome’s roof.  I’m not even sure whether the spread here will remain the same in the wake of the incident, or if Vegas will pull the line off the board, or what.  Since it’s a pretty basic three-point spread, which is standard issue home field advantage, you might see nothing at all happen.  I’m not sure either team will respond well; expect both offenses to be out of rhythm and play a sloppy game.  As such, it’s probably defense that will win it, and I think the Giants will do slightly better – they’ll get to the quarterback a few times and force some turnovers, and that will be the difference.

GREEN BAY PACKERS at DETROIT LIONS Computer’s Pick: Detroit (+7) Bet Amount: $3.26 (Consensus)

COMMENTS: I rarely actually issue guarantees of blowouts, but I guarantee that the Packers will blow out the Lions.  I expect a final score of about 42-3 or so, only because the Packers let up in the third quarter.

ATLANTA FALCONS at CAROLINA PANTHERS Computer’s Pick: Carolina (+7.5) Bet Amount: $4.24 (Consensus)

COMMENTS: I like Carolina to cover here.  They’ve been playing much better lately, and seem to actually have a little bit of pride.  There is no chance they’ll win this game, but keeping it within seven points seems reasonable, especially considering that Atlanta will play it safe and keep the ball on the ground.  There won’t be much in the way of fireworks in this game, just a low-scoring affair that the Falcons win by a touchdown or less.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS at WASHINGTON REDSKINS Computer’s Pick: Washington (+2) Bet Amount: $71.34 (Consensus)

COMMENTS: It’s not a lot of fun investing so much into the Washington Redskins, and it’s not hard to see why Gamblor is so enthusiastic about the underdog here – this line seems like a pretty ferocious trap.  The Redskins seem to be in a downward spiral, while the Buccaneers are trying to fight their way into a wild-card spot.  But last week’s loss will have deflated the Buccaneers quite a bit – they’ll show up flat to this game, which is what the books are counting on.

SAINT LOUIS RAMS at NEW ORLEANS SAINTS Computer’s Pick: New Orleans (-9) Bet Amount: $80.00 (Consensus)

COMMENTS: I’m not thrilled with this pick – nine points seems like an awful lot to be giving to a surprisingly competent Rams team.  The Saints are well-coached, so they’ll take this game seriously, but their offense has been finicky enough this year that it’s hard to know in advance whether they’ll be functioning at peak efficiency.  This one strikes me as a coin toss, but I think ultimately I’d be seduced by the nine points and take the Rams.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS at SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS Computer’s Pick: Seattle (+5.5) Bet Amount: $2.86 (Gamblor only)

COMMENTS: I can’t care about this game.  The spread seems far too large, considering their skill levels aren’t that far apart.  Brian Mitchell will see plenty of action, and it seems likely that the game will be close enough for the spread to factor in – giving the edge to Seattle.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS at CHICAGO BEARS Computer’s Pick: Chicago (+3) Bet Amount: $12.10 (Gamblor only)

COMMENTS: Given the obscene amount of money that will be flowing in on the Patriots after they completely dismantled the Jets on Monday night, this line seems like a trap.  Nobody believes in the Bears, and I’m sure they’re plenty upset about being a home dog here.  But the thing is, I don’t believe in the Bears either.  Gamblor is doing exactly what it’s designed to do in this situation, but I don’t agree – I think the Patriots are just too good to be stopped at this point..

MIAMI DOLPHINS at NEW YORK JETS Computer’s Pick: Miami (+5) Bet Amount: $4.18 (Gamblor only)

COMMENTS: Revenge game for the Jets – in particular, the Jets defense.  Against Chad Henne, who threw three awful interceptions last week.  If you’ve got the Jets defense in fantasy football, prepare to be happy.  If you’re playing against them, as I am, look for your playoff hopes to go down the drain.

DENVER BRONCOS at ARIZONA CARDINALS Computer’s Pick: Arizona (+4.5) Bet Amount: $20.22 (Gamblor only)

COMMENTS: This is even worse than the Seattle-San Francisco game.  But unlike that other meaningless game, I’ll pass on the points here – Arizona is terrible and getting worse, while Denver has the weapons to put up plenty of points against the Cardinals.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS at SAN DIEGO CHARGERS Computer’s Pick: San Diego (-10) Bet Amount: $111.77 (Consensus)

COMMENTS: Was last week’s loss to the Raiders a fluke?  I sure hope it was.  And I actually believe that it was – San Diego will pick up where they left off two weeks ago, and the Chiefs will crumble under the pressure.  They’re just not used to being frontrunners, while the Chargers are well-acquainted with coming from being in a divisional race to the playoffs.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES at DALLAS COWBOYS Computer’s Pick: Dallas (+3.5) Bet Amount: $5.78 (Consensus)

COMMENTS: Has Vegas forgotten about Michael Vick and the Philadelphia offense?  No, they haven’t.  This line is a trap.  Don’t ask me how or why, but Dallas will actually manage to be in this game.  Overtime? Maybe.  Late-game heroics by Michael Vick to pull out the win?  Perhaps.  But count on Dallas being close in this one, and lots of enthusiastic Eagles bettors getting screwed.

BALTIMORE RAVENS at HOUSTON TEXANS Computer’s Pick: Houston (+3) Bet Amount: $8.07 (Gamblor only)

COMMENTS: This has the potential to be a great, great game.  I hope.  It’s been a pretty disappointing season for Monday Night Football, so we can keep our fingers crossed that things turn around during the last few games.  I’m hoping both teams trade scores throughout the night, stopped only by spectacular defensive plays, and eventually Baltimore wins in overtime with a push.  What will probably actually happen, though, is that Baltimore will win this game handily after a few turnovers by the Houston offense.  Ah well.