I Call Him SON OF GAMBLOR! Week 6 NFL Picks

UPDATE: The books have done it to me yet again with Green Bay, posting a line of just -3 despite the fact that Aaron Rodgers is likely to play.  If I hadn’t seen this same thing happen about ten times last year, I’d think this line was bait for a huge trap.  Which is of course what Gamblor and Son of Gamblor think about it.  Bettors will be flocking to bet on Green Bay (the line has been posted for all of 10 minutes and the juice is already at -120 for the Packers), so it will be a nice payoff if the bet wins, but it probably won’t.  I don’t know why the hell the sportsbooks keep doing this to me, and to themselves.

I’ll be the first to admit that I got very, very, very lucky in winning my $300 bet on the Bears last weekend.  How often does a team’s quarterback throw four interceptions and no touchdowns, yet still manage to win the game by seventeen points?  Although that’s nice padding for my gambling account, which is in the black for almost $1600 so far this season, it actually doesn’t count as a big win for the computer – with the revised spread, Gamblor and Son of Gamblor would have only put down about $30 on the Bears between them.  Even so, both systems performed profitably yet again, with Gamblor hitting a weighted win percentage of 70.5% (with a record of 6-5) and Son of Gamblor coming in at 66.0% (with a record of 9-3).  It’s time to step back, take a deep breath, and relax a little.

This week, it appears that Gamblor and Son of Gamblor have both decided to treat themselves to a bye – between the two of them there are only four bets, with a total of just $30 on the line.  Tampa Bay is currently the computer’s largest play, but it’s likely that if Aaron Rodgers sits and a relatively low line is posted for the Miami-Green Bay game, the computer will weigh in heavily on the side of the Dolphins.  Given how lazy and quiet the computer is being this week, I think I’ll be treating myself to a bit of a bye week as well – I apologize for the lack of a feature.  I’ll be back next week with the Top 5 On-Air Gaffes by NFL Announcers, and hopefully there will be a few more interesting bets taking place, so stay tuned!

MIAMI DOLPHINS at GREEN BAY PACKERS Computer’s Pick: Miami (+3) Bet Amount: $151.26 (Consensus)

COMMENTS: Still waiting for the spread on this one.  If Rodgers plays, expect Green Bay to be favored by 7 or more and a negligible hedge bet from the computer.  If Rodgers is out and the line is relatively low, both Gamblor and Son of Gamblor will have sizable bets on the Dolphins.  UPDATE – so…Rodgers is IN and Green Bay is favored by just 3 points.  In a similar matchup involving any other team than the Packers, this would look like a huge trap.  But it’s not.  It’s just Vegas inexplicably giving away free money.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS at CHICAGO BEARS Computer’s Pick: Seattle (+6.5) Bet Amount: $0.11 (Conflict)

COMMENTS: Cutler has officially been named as the starter for this game.  I think the spread makes a lot of sense here.  Seattle has played very poorly away from home, while the Bears have looked pretty strong for the most part, but nobody believes they’re as good as their record would suggest.  Despite Todd Collins’ efforts to throw away my three hundred dollar bet last week, the Bears defense held firm.  I’m expecting them to play down a little bit here, but it’s hard to imagine Chicago losing a home game to a team as bad as Seattle.  I guess I’ll take Seattle to cover the spread but lose the game here.

ATLANTA FALCONS at PHILADELPHIA EAGLES Computer’s Pick: Atlanta (+3) Bet Amount: $6.64 (Gamblor only)

COMMENTS: The Eagles have gone coast-to-coast in the last two weeks – they’ll be too worn out from their trip (albeit successful) to San Francisco to summon much energy for this non-divisional game against a solid Atlanta team.  The points are a pretty tidy present here, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Atlanta win this game outright.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS at SAINT LOUIS RAMS Computer’s Pick: St. Louis (+8.5) Bet Amount: $4.43 (Gamblor only)

COMMENTS: I’m not sure what San Diego has done to deserve this kind of favoritism, especially since they’ve lost all three of their games on the road thus far (including last week’s loss to the dreadful Raiders — who managed to beat the Rams in Week 2), but it’s not hard to see where it comes from on the other side — St. Louis is fresh off a rout by the previously winless Detroit Lions and also lost their top receiver to injury.  Gamblor doesn’t have much to say on the subject, except that it thinks the spread is pretty much right where it’s supposed to be.  I think seven points is more appropriate, but I also think that San Diego will finally snap it road woes and win this game without too much trouble.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS at HOUSTON TEXANS Computer’s Pick: Houston (-4.5) Bet Amount: $0.70 (Son of Gamblor only)

COMMENTS: Last week’s loss to the Colts exposed some of Kansas City’s weaknesses, although apparently defense isn’t one of them.  Houston’s defense, on the other hand, was its usual porous self, as the Texans gave up 34 points to the Giants.  I get the feeling that if Houston wins this game, they’ll win big – they’ve only had one game this year decided by less than a touchdown.  And I get the feeling that they’ll win.  Which means I’m in agreement with Son of Gamblor – I think they’ll cover the spread here.

BALTIMORE RAVENS at NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS Computer’s Pick: Baltimore (+3) Bet Amount: $0.26 (Son of Gamblor only)

COMMENTS: The Ravens beat the Jets, and the Jets beat the Patriots, hence the Ravens should beat the Patriots, right?  Yeah, pretty much.  New England lost a LOT when Randy Moss skipped town, because it completely changed the character of their entire offense.  Corners who previously had to play five yards off the line will now be right up on it, and those bubble screens and underneath passes won’t be quite so lucrative anymore.  The only thing keeping this spread so high is New England’s record, so I actually feel really good to be getting these points with Baltimore.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS at TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS Computer’s Pick: Tampa Bay (+4.5) Bet Amount: $9.69 (Consensus)

COMMENTS: It’s a minuscule hedge bet for Gamblor and a small bet for Son of Gamblor on yet another spread that’s pretty much appropriate for the situation.  New Orleans still has lots of offensive weapons, but they all seem to be misfiring, while Tampa Bay has been ramping up their own performance just in time to peak (or plateau) against the defending Superbowl champions.  All three of Tampa’s wins have come against soft opponents, but the same has been true of New Orleans (whose 3 wins – by a total of ten points – came against opponents with a combined record of 1-13).  Tampa Bay has been gunning up for this game for a while, and should play with some serious intensity.  The home field advantage should be enough to push them into a close game against a familiar opponent.

CLEVELAND BROWNS at PITTSBURGH STEELERS Computer’s Pick: Pittsburgh (-14) Bet Amount: $4.90 (Conflict)

COMMENTS: I’m surprised that this spread is so high – but according to Gamblor, it’s only slightly higher than it ought to be.  I’ll be feeling a bit of pity for poor Colt McCoy if he gets to make his first NFL start – the Pittsburgh defense will behave like a pack of rabid dogs who have just been reunited with their alpha male.  With that said, I have a hard time believing that the Steelers will cover this spread.  It’s just too much for a divisional game.

DETROIT LIONS at NEW YORK GIANTS Computer’s Pick: Detroit (+10) Bet Amount: $4.05 (Gamblor only)

COMMENTS: Detroit has been a machine when it comes to covering spreads this year (4-1 with a near-miss at Minnesota), but I think that trend comes to an end here.  The Giants should be able to score at will, and with Detroit’s primary weapon (Calvin Johnson) limited due to a shoulder injury, it seems likely that the Lions won’t be able to respond.

NEW YORK JETS at DENVER BRONCOS Computer’s Pick: Denver (+3) Bet Amount: $0.05 (Gamblor only)

COMMENTS: The Jets are on a roll, and simply match up perfectly with the Broncos.  Revis’ absence won’t make much of a difference – without having to worry about stopping the Broncos from rushing, the Jets should be able to concentrate on slowing down Kyle Orton and their offense will be able to move the ball just fine against the Broncos defense.  It’s likely to be a disappointing day for the Mile High faithful.

OAKLAND RAIDERS at SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS Computer’s Pick: Oakland (+6.5) Bet Amount: $5.78 (Conflict)

COMMENTS: Everyone else I’ve read agrees that this spread is downright ridiculous.  It’s effectively a home game for the Oakland Raiders, who are one missed field goal away from a 3-2 record, against a San Francisco team that’s absolutely falling to pieces.  I think this is probably the first time I’ve ever predicted an easy Raiders victory on this website (and I’m sure the Raiders will make a fool out of me in short order), but there’s simply no way the 49ers should be able to cover this spread.

DALLAS COWBOYS at MINNESOTA VIKINGS Computer’s Pick: Dallas (+1.5) Bet Amount: $3.08 (Gamblor only)

COMMENTS: I don’t think the distractions are over for the Vikings – and last week’s loss will have left them feeling pretty demoralized.  Dallas will be looking to avenge last year’s embarrassing playoff loss, and I think they’ll bring their A game into the Metrodome this time around.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS at WASHINGTON REDSKINS Computer’s Pick: Washington (+3) Bet Amount: $1.30 (Gamblor only)

COMMENTS: Indianapolis should win this game in a blowout.  Washington has been playing some tough football, but I think they’ll take this week off against a non-conference opponent.

TENNESSEE TITANS at JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS Computer’s Pick: Jacksonville (+3) Bet Amount: $7.88 (Gamblor only)

COMMENTS: As I mentioned a few weeks ago, I have absolutely no idea what to make of Jacksonville.  I think they’ll play tough in a divisional rivalry game, but I don’t think they’ll win.  I’d predict a push if I could, but since I can’t, I’ll go with the Titans.