NFL Picks: Week 13 (updated)

UPDATE:  The line in the Arizona game finally got posted – the Vikings are favorites by 3 points.  Whisenhunt says that who’s starting at quarterback will be a game-time decision, but it seems pretty clear from this line that Vegas doesn’t believe Warner will be playing.  I don’t either, frankly – it would be a very hard game to win even with him, and it’s certainly not one that they need.  The computer has become a big fan of Miami now that the line moved down, so that’s now it’s biggest bet of the week (gulp).  But overall it’s a pretty quiet week, with just $200 on the line and almost exclusively underdogs (yet again).  For what it’s worth, the new model (I call him SON OF GAMBLOR!) is finished and while I won’t be making any bets on it this year, its favorite plays this week are Tennessee, Arizona (even with the new spread), Cleveland, Jacksonville, and Detroit.

Last week started off pretty well, as the computer won money on Thanksgiving and in the morning games on Sunday.  But in the afternoon things turned sour in a hurry.  Gamblor missed its top bet of the week with Chicago, Vince Young’s spectacular game-ending drive for Tennessee forced a push on its third-largest bet, and on Monday night the Patriots got pounded by the Saints for yet another loss on its second-largest bet.  The overall results for the week were a weighted win percentage of 40.3% and a loss of $60.  Gamblor is now in the red for a total of $163 for the season, which is pretty disappointing.  I’ll elaborate further once we hit the playoffs, but the biggest problem it is suffering is that the distribution of hedge bets to flip bets is way, way off from where it should be.  Faithful readers may have noticed a serious lack of bets on favorites this year, which is a symptom of this.  The flip bets are performing perfectly well (even including the catastrophic Dallas loss to Green Bay a few weeks ago, they’re running at about 57%, which is right on target).  Unfortunately, the hedge bets, which were supposed to be an entertaining diversion and a way of smoothing out some of the peaks and valleys of the flip bets, are dominating in a way they’re not supposed to.  As I said before I’ll explain further at the end of the season.  All I can do now is cross my fingers and hope the computer manages to turn things around before it pisses all its previous season’s winnings away.

Football players are some of the finest physical specimens that humanity has to offer.  They might not be the brightest bulbs, but as the fastest, the strongest, and the fittest members of our society, they are the kings of the jungle.  As such, they usually have their first choice of the women.  Joe Namath was famous for his conquests (and possibly even more famous for one particular failure), Travis Henry has had children with eleven different women, the character Wooderson in Dazed and Confused could have easily been based on Chris Collinsworth*, and Tom Brady’s romance with supermodel Gisele Bundschen was so aggressively documented by the paparazzi that a pair of photographers ended up accusing the couple’s bodyguards of shooting at them during their second wedding ceremony in Costa Rica.  But players have better things to do than to hang out at fashion shows chasing models, and the nightclub scene is fraught with perils of its own, as so many players have discovered.  Are there any nice, fun, safe places that a lusty athlete can visit to find beautiful and libertine women in an atmosphere of relative safety, security, and privacy?

(To watch this video, right-click and hit play)

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This last week, the sports world has been on fire with speculation about the circumstances of Tiger Woods’ accident and whether or not his wife, Swedish model Elin Nordegren, followed up her accusations of infidelity by smashing the back window of his SUV with a golf club.  There’s no defense for Tiger’s behavior (which seems to have been an open secret that a sympathetic press cheerfully guarded until the story became just too salacious to willfully overlook), but chasing after someone with a four-iron is not an adult way to settle an argument when a quiet phone call to a divorce lawyer would suffice quite nicely.**  It’s an unfortunate feature of the world these women inhabit, but sadly, building an entire facade of self-worth based around fleeting physical attractiveness is very damaging to the psyche.  Models are rarely healthy mentally.  The calm, collected, cerebral nature of Cindy Crawford and Heidi Klum is far less common than the cellphone-throwing assaults of Naomi Campbell or the cocaine-fueled antics of Kate Moss.  Amidst the daddy issues, body issues, and insecurities that often come as a curse to accompany great beauty is a simple paradox.  As the old saying goes: smart, beautiful, sane.  Pick two.  You can’t have all three. Which brings me to my feature for the week. 

The Top 5 Psycho Playboy Models Who Are Dating NFL Players

Warning: Do not click on the images unless you’d like to visit some seriously NSFW galleries.  You’re not AT work?  Lucky you!  And remember, these are ranked according to the level of crazy, not attractiveness.

5.  Kendra Wilkinson. Based on her sunny disposition and willing accessibility to fans, Kendra Wilkinson seems like a genuine sweetheart.  The San Diego native made her first appearance at the Playboy mansion as one of the “painted girls” at Hefner’s birthday party, lived in the mansion as one of Hefner’s girlfriends and charmed viewers of the reality show The Girls Next Door well enough to earn her own spinoff show, Kendra.  Kendra is a faithful Chargers fan who married NFL receiver Hank Baskett in June and is due to give birth to her first child in December.  Baskett was best-known as an Eagles receiver but has recently been engaged by the Indianapolis Colts to help fill a void in their roster caused by an injury to Anthony Gonzalez.  Unfortunately, sweetness aside, Kendra also seems incredibly dim – so much so that she makes Kelly Bundy seem like a Rhodes scholar by comparison.  Hugh Hefner described Kendra as having a “distinctly unintellectual charm” and possessing a “dazed personality and a limited vocabulary.”  When confronted with any situation more mentally challenging than, say, making dinner reservations at the Olive Garden, Kendra’s laudable response is to get drunk and cheerfully take her top off.

4.  Jennifer Walcott. There has got to be something seriously wrong with this girl.  I mean, there has to be, right? Nobody could possibly be so perfect physically without having some terrible psychological issues lurking below the surface.  But if there are, she’s hiding them incredibly well.  Walcott was a cheerleader and a dancer while growing up in Ohio, and started modeling in 2000, eventually being selected as Playmate of the Month in August of 2001.  She writes poetry (good poetry, apparently, since she won a Readers Digest contest), volunteers at the Ronald McDonald house,  and is the spokesmodel for a wide array of products.  She’s married to former Chicago Bears safety Adam Archuleta.  So where does the crazy come in?  It’s a stretch, but first off, the pair have chosen to live in Scottdale, Arizona.  For those unfamiliar with this “city” (it’s an edgecity of Phoenix that gets snippy about its identity the same way Anaheim does about its relationship to LA), the best description of it I’ve heard is that if you spend too long living there, you turn into Cindy McCain.  And second, Jennifer is a health nut, so much so that she chose to deliver her first child organically – i.e. without the use of drugs or painkillers.  I’ve never personally experienced the pain of childbirth, but I hear it’s pretty bad.  She’s taken this organic approach even further by making her own formula with all-natural ingredients.  That’s not necessarily crazy, but when you deprive your child of his legitimate access to such a perfect pair of “birthrights” and feed him a mixture of whey, lactose, protobiotics, and cod liver oil instead, I think it definitely qualifies as cruel.

3.  Heather Kozar. Ah, now we’re onto much more solid ground.  Heather Kozar was the Playmate of the Month in January of 1998, the cover girl in June of 1999, and was later that year voted as the Playmate of the Year.  She’s an Ohio native, which might explain how she ended up getting involved with Heisman hopeful quarterback Tim Couch, who was drafted first in the 1999 NFL draft by the Cleveland Browns.  The two were together until the unwelcome arrival of UCLA prospect Cade McNown in the Midwest, as a draft pick of the Chicago Bears.  McNown, in a pretty major violation of the most basic tenets of the guy code, made a concerted effort steal her away.  He showered her with attention in the form of phone calls and flowers, and even had a Porsche delivered to her as a gift.  Sadly for Heather, she fell prey to McNown’s charms and ran off with him for a while, before he lost interest in her and started chasing another Playmate of the Year, this time 2001’s Brande Roderick, who happened to be Hefner’s girlfriend at the time.  McNown carted his new prospect off to Mexico for a getaway and was subsequently banned from the Playboy Mansion forever, while Kozar was forced to crawl back to Couch on hands and knees (which turned out to be a surprisingly good strategy for ensuring she’d be received).  Kozar’s indiscretions can be chalked up to naivety, and eventually she and Tim Couch were married and have a pair of children, which is two more than the number of football careers shared between Couch and McNown.

2.  Carmela DeCesare. While the blondes on this list have done an admirable job of perpetuating their stereotype as airheaded bimbos, no other Playmate has done a better job of bostering the reputation of Latinas as feisty and hot-tempered.  DeCesare is actually a mix of Puerto Rican and Italian, and began her modeling career as a Playboy Cyber Girl before graduating to a full pictoral as Playmate of the Month in April of 2002.  In 2004 she began dating Jeff Garcia, who played his best seasons for the San Francisco 49ers but also spent time in Cleveland, Detroit, Philadelphia, and Tampa Bay, as well as a short stint in Oakland (given that Garcia’s career competion percentage is 61.5% and has thrown 161 touchdowns to 83 interceptions, WHY THE FUCK DID THEY CUT THIS GUY???).  That fall, she was hauled into court on misdemeanor charges of assault against a girl names Kristen Hine, a side dish for Garcia to DeCesare’s main course, in a Cleveland bar. The compaint alleged that DeCesare was dancing on a table in a nightclub called…wait for it…Tramp before she unleashed a karate kick at Hine’s head .  Honestly, I can’t do this story justice, you have to go here and here to read some of the hilarious details of the testimony in which the judge characterized both sides as “losers.”  Though DeCesare was acquitted of the assault charges, she was found guilty of an even more awesome misdemeanor in the realm of psycho ex-girlfriend stalking – violating a restraining order.  Garcia and DeCesare are currently married and have a pair of children, so it sounds like her wild days are behind her.

1.  Tila Tequila. Sheesh.  Where to begin?  No other woman on this list could possibly compete with Tila Tequila when it comes to straight-up histrionic personality disorder – she clearly stands out as a result of her relentless, desperate, and shameless pleas for attention.  Tila Tequila first appeared as a Playboy Cyber Girl of the Week in April of 2002, and became the first Asian Cyber Girl of the Month.  She attained fame via Myspace for obtaining more “friends” than anyone else on the network – a total currently standing at 3.9 million connections.  Her burgeoning fame and blossoming music career led to further pictorals in the magazine, as well as her own reality dating show (A Shot at Love) where she proclaimed herself to be bisexual and proceded to choose a potential mate from a selection of both men and women.  As far as her NFL connection, it was hard to ignore the incident this fall with San Diego Chargers defensive lineman Shawne Merriman where he allegedly choked and restrained her.  Shortly thereafter, she described herself as “suicidal,”  and after filing a $1.5 million lawsuit against Merriman, engaged in a rambling, drunken rant that pretty much defies description but included her stripping and describing herself as an “angel” who will “save the world.”  Then, of course, a sextape clip emerged.  Her own lawyer even described her as having “gone over the edge.”   Hopefully she’s getting the help she needs, because honestly, it seems like a pretty big job, and our economy could use the boost.

Gamblor’s picks this week…well, what can I say?  It’s the same hedge-heavy garbage it’s been spitting out all season.  I’m very optimistic about the new geography-adjusted model, which I won’t actually launch until next season.  In any event, if Kurt Warner plays and Arizona is favored, that will easily be Gamblor’s biggest pick of the week.

*For what it’s worth, I think Collinsworth is doing a terrific job with his commentary on Sunday nights.  I wish Chris would flay Joe Buck alive, wear his skin for a costume, and take over the Fox broadcasts on Sundays.  The brainless drones that run the Fox Network would probably be too stupid to notice the difference except for the sudden increase in ratings.

**To imagine what this telephone conversation would have looked like in real life, just picture a guy in a suit sitting at a desk surrounded by a bunch of law books.  He answers a phone, listens for a few seconds, and then his eyes start spinning around in his head like the wheels in a slot machine before landing on a pair of triple $$$’s.

NEW YORK JETS at BUFFALO BILLS Gamblor’s Pick: Buffalo (+3) Bet Amount: $16.42 (Hedge)

WHY IT’S WRONG: For two weeks in a row, interim coach Perry Fewell has managed to coax a few heartbeats out of what everyone assumed was a headless corpse.  But aside from their win over Miami, the Bills surrendered a late loss to Jacksonville (!) and dropped games to Tennessee and Houston since they last won.  The Bills pulled off a surprise upset of the Jets in Week 6, but that won’t happen again here.  Last week’s win over Carolina gave new life to Rex Ryan’s Jets, and this game is being played in Toronto, which negates any home field advantage that the Bills would have had.  The short spread makes me a little nervous, but the Jets will be hungry for revenge and should have little trouble dealing with the Bills.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES at ATLANTA FALCONS Gamblor’s Pick: Atlanta (+5.5) Bet Amount: $11.92 (Hedge)

WHY I AGREE: Without Matt Ryan, it’s hard to believe that Atlanta can compete with Philadelphia.  But I also feel like this line is overcompensating for his absence.  Philadelphia nearly got beat by the Redskins last week, and that game will have taken more out of them than they would have liked.  Plus, they’ve got to travel to New York next week for an important divisional game against the Giants on Sunday night.  They’ll be distracted here.  Atlanta, on the other hand, will be stepping up their play to compensate for Ryan’s absence.  They have absolutely refused to go down without a fight in the last several weeks, and they should give the Eagles a tough game here.

SAINT LOUIS RAMS at CHICAGO BEARS Gamblor’s Pick: St. Louis (+9.5) Bet Amount: $18.96 (Hedge)

WHY I AGREE: Gamblor thinks this line is about right, but it looks way too big to me.  Certainly the Rams are terrible, but the Bears are falling to pieces.  They’re just 1-5 against the spread in their last six games, so why would anyone trust them to cover nine points against a team that is 4-2 against the spread in the same stretch?  The Bears will try to run the ball with Forte, just as the Rams will try to do with Steven Jackson.  Neither will have a tremendous amount of success.  Not too many points will be scored in this one – certainly not enough to justify a spread of greater than a touchdown.

DETROIT LIONS at CINCINNATI BENGALS Gamblor’s Pick: Detroit (+13) Bet Amount: $12.12 (Hedge and Flip)

WHY IT’S WRONG: Cleveland’s defense proved themselves far too stout to let a middling offense like the Bengals’ run away with things.  As we saw so vividly on Thanksgiving, Detroit’s isn’t.  Carson Palmer should have an easy time distributing the ball amongst his receivers and backs, as Detroits secondary provides no more coverage than the lovely Mrs. Walcott’s bikini does here.  And Cincinnati will be able to pick off Stafford at least once, so the Bengals’ offense will have some short fields to work with.  13 points is a lot fo cover, but I think Cincinnati will pull it off.

TENNESSEE TITANS at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS Gamblor’s Pick: Tennessee (+6.5) Bet Amount: $15.83 (Flip)

WHY I AGREE: Indianapolis has nothing to play for in this game.  They’ve got their division locked up, they’ve got a three game edge for homefield advantage throughout the playoffs, and all they really care about right now is avoiding any catastrophic injuries to any of their star players.  They’ll come out for the first few series’, but if Tennessee ever manages to take a lead, the Colts won’t bother to chase them.  And if the Colts jump ahead, they won’t overexert themselves to keep Tennessee from climbing back into the game.  Conversely, Tennessee is one game away from getting back to .500 and erasing the disastrous start to their season.  Last week’s amazing comeback will have energized the team.  They’re starting to think playoffs, and the Colts don’t have any particular reason to deny them their dream.

DENVER BRONCOS at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS Gamblor’s Pick: Kansas City (+5) Bet Amount: $14.86 (Hedge)

WHY I AGREE: Denver will really want to win this game.  They’re chasing San Diego and need to win out in their divisional games to get to the next level of the tiebreaker (most victories in common games).  But unfortunately for the Broncos, Kansas City has got a style of play that will match up well against them.  The teams will trade short drives and occasional field goals, and this will turn into a quarterback duel (of sorts) that won’t be decided until the very end.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS at WASHINGTON REDSKINS Gamblor’s Pick: Washington (+9.5) Bet Amount: $7.62 (Hedge)

WHY IT’S WRONG: The Saints seem completely unstoppable at this point.  If the Patriots can’t hang with them, how the hell can the Redskins?  As good as they are, the Saints have struggled a bit on the road.  And the Redskins can play pass defense – after all, they held down the Cowboys just fine.  But I think ultimately the Saints have just too many weapons.  The spread is a half point too small, and the Saints are just too hot to pick against.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS at CAROLINA PANTHERS Gamblor’s Pick: Tampa Bay (+5.5) Bet Amount: $27.55 (Hedge)

WHY I AGREE: The Panthers really put in a great effort to salvage their season, but coming up so short against the Jets will have taken all of the wind right out of their sails.  Tampa, on the other hand, seems like they’re actually having fun again.  They know they’ll be picking up some help in the draft, they’ve got nothing to lose by taking chances on big plays, and they’re nice and relaxed.  With the pressure off, they should be able to do well against the frustrated Panthers.

HOUSTON TEXANS at JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS Gamblor’s Pick: Houston (Pk) Bet Amount: $0.78 (Hedge)

WHY I AGREE: Why on earth is this spread so low?  I know that Jacksonville has a better record, but I feel like Houston is a far superior team.  I’ll be rounding this down, of course, but I don’t see Jacksonville being able to compete with Houston on any level.  Yes, I know they’ve already beaten the Texans – in Houston.  I just don’t see it happening again.

OAKLAND RAIDERS at PITTSBURGH STEELERS Gamblor’s Pick: Oakland (+14.5) Bet Amount: $23.65 (Hedge)

WHY IT’S WRONG: This is a tough one to call.  Pittsburgh has an ancient rivalry with the Raiders and loves to beat them, but the Steelers have done a terrible job of covering large spreads this season.  The Steelers will beat Oakland easily, but at what point will they let up?  They’re not going to want to expose Big Ben or any of their other key players to injury, so once they have the game in hand (probably by the end of the first quarter, depending on whether they win the opening toss) they’ll put Dixon in and let him practice handing the ball off to his running backs.  That won’t accomplish too much, but if he’s given a chance to throw the ball, he’ll kill the Raiders with his scrambling.  John Harbaugh was smart enough to account for this.  Tom Cable isn’t.  I think Pittsburgh gets the edge here, just because they’ll want to show off a little for their fans, some of whom are old enough to actually have reasons to hate the Raiders.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS at MIAMI DOLPHINS Gamblor’s Pick: Miami (+4) Bet Amount: $23.65 (Hedge)

WHY IT’S WRONG: The Dolphins are going to be the unhappy recipients of Bill Belichick’s wrath following the humiliation his Patriots suffered on Monday night.  This one is going to get ugly, and the Patriots won’t hesitate to run up the score.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS at CLEVELAND BROWNS Gamblor’s Pick: Cleveland (+13) Bet Amount: None (Flip)

WHY IT’S WRONG: I underestimated San Diego.  It seems like unless their opponents have defensive backs that are 7 feet tall or equipped with ladders or are standing on stilts, there’s no way to stop the Chargers’ passing game.  Rivers waits a few seconds, floats it downfield, and one of his gargantuan receivers reaches up and hauls it in.  Mix it in with a few carries for Ladanian Tomlinson so he won’t whine, and they’re absolutely murdering their opponents.  It’s not a fancy strategy, but it works.  Cleveland will be lucky to score even a single field goal in this game, so all San Diego needs is three touchdowns to cover this spread.  They’ll get more than that.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS at SEATTLE SEAHAWKS Gamblor’s Pick: San Francisco (0) Bet Amount: $4.10 (Hedge)

WHY IT’S WRONG: Because when it comes to the Seahawks, Gamblor is always wrong.  I’m just glad the Seahawks’ tax is so low this week.  I don’t see any particular reason why the Seahawks should win this game, but Gamblor is just 3-8 when for its picks in games that involve Seattle, so it’s pretty reliable to pick against in when those damned birds are involved.

DALLAS COWBOYS at NEW YORK GIANTS Gamblor’s Pick: Dallas (-2.5) Bet Amount: None (Flip)

WHY IT’S WRONG: Tony Romo’s troubles in December are well-documented, and at this point one has to wonder whether it’s becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy.  It’s hard to believe that the Giants would falter in front of their home crowd in such an important game against such a familiar foe.  If the Giants can get under Romo’s skin early by throwing a few blitzes at him (with some cover provided by the deafening noise their fans will unleash), they’ll be able to take control of this game.  I’m happy taking the Giants as a home dog here.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS at ARIZONA CARDINALS Gamblor’s Pick: Arizona (3) Bet Amount: $1.76 (Flip)

WHY IT’S WRONG: There’s no spread yet for this game, this is an estimate assuming that Warner plays.  Gamblor is with the Cardinals either way; it’s pick won’t change unless the spread is moves all the way down to +7 or so (which it won’t).  Without Warner, you’d have to be crazy to take Arizona here, and even with him it’s a risky proposition (regardless of how much Gamblor loves the Cardinals).  It’s a different field surface, but the Vikings will feel very much at home in the dome, and a quick score or sack will quiet the crowd very quickly.  The Cardinals are in firm control of their division and won’t be able to pick up a bye or homefield advantage, so there’s not too much motivation for them to go wild in this contest.  Plus, Ken Whisenhunt won’t reach too far into his bag of tricks lest he tip his hand on the very solid possibility that these teams will face each other again in the playoffs.

BALTIMORE RAVENS at GREEN BAY PACKERS Gamblor’s Pick: Baltimore (+3) Bet Amount: $15.64 (Hedge)

WHY I AGREE: Green Bay did a surprisingly good job of patching their offensive line problems, but there are still a few residual cracks.  The Ravens will exploit these to an astonishing degree.  Flacco has definitely suffered from a sophomore slump, and Green Bay’s secondary won’t do him any favors to help him get over it.  Fortunately, though, he’ll have Ray Rice and Willis MaGahee to turn to.  I’m a little surprised to see the Packers only giving up three points; I’d expect that they’d be favored a little more for a late-season game at home.

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