Rebirth of Gamblor: Week 2 NFL Picks

Gamblor started out quite well last week, laying out $704 and winning it all back, plus a tidy profit of $255.  Both models had Houston as their biggest bet of the week, and it paid off nicely.  Overall, Gamblor went 7-9 with a weighted win percentage of 71.6%, and Son of Gamblor was even better, going 6-5 with a weighted win percentage of 72.6%.  The computer isn’t nearly as aggressive this week, with less than $200 on the line and its biggest bet on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

This week’s football/Game of Thrones pairing is the New England Patriots and House Lannister.  For years, the Patriots were one of the laughingstocks of the league, much like House Lannister when it was led by the weak-willed Tytos Lannister.  Upon the ascendancy of the humorless and driven Bill Belichick – whose demeanor and undeniable effectiveness likens him to Tywin, the Patriots have made a return to glory.  Taking the place of Jamie Lanniester at Belichick’s side, Tom Brady has become known for his phenomenal prowess on the field, his good looks, and his relationship with one of the most beautiful women on the planet.  Aided by the undersized but sarcastic Wes Welker, the Patriots have effectively become the “evil empire” of the NFL, winning Superbowls in 2001, 2003, and 2004.  But their bit for complete and total dominance has been thwarted by another great team, who we’ll be introduced to next week.

Things are much quieter for the computer this week, with only one bet of greater than $30.   Last week, I liked a lot of the computer’s picks.  This week, not so much.

CHICAGO BEARS at GREEN BAY PACKERS Computer’s Pick: Chicago (+6) Bet Amount: None (Conflict)

COMMENTS: I have to assume that Green Bay is going to pick themselves back up after last week’s surprise from the 49ers.  But they’ll be missing Greg Jennings, they have no running attack to speak of, and Chicago is familiar with them.  I can’t see Green Bay running away with this one.  Chicago looks quite strong this year, and this should be a statement game for them.  I’d be surprised if they were able to steal one from the Packers at Lambeau, but they should be able to keep it close.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS at NEW YORK GIANTS Computer’s Pick: Tampa Bay (+7.5) Bet Amount: $78.86 (Consensus)

COMMENTS: The Giants looks lazy and sloppy in their first game back, but that loss will have served as a wake-up call for them.  Tampa Bay only managed sixteen points against Carolina – a team that gave up the 6th most points in the NFL last year.  I have a hard time imagining that Tampa will be able to score, and the Giants ought to score pretty easily against Tampa’s young defense.  So I don’t really like the computer’s bet here.  I guess I’ll just have to hope for a late backdoor cover.

ARIZONA CARDINALS at NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS Computer’s Pick: Arizona (+14) Bet Amount: $27.32 (Consensus)

COMMENTS: I think Arizona is better than this spread gives them credit for – but Gamblor doesn’t.  It actually thinks the spread should be bigger.  It’s actually quite rare that the computer bets on the Patriots – it always expects a bigger spread – and this week is no exception.  Personally, I’m expecting a relatively easy Patriots win, but not a total blowout, and for the Cardinals to cover the spread.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS Computer’s Pick: Indianapolis (+1.5) Bet Amount: $14.48 (Gamblor only)

COMMENTS: I don’t see how the Colts stay in this game.  It should be a walkover for the Vikings, with a surprisingly healthy Adrian Peterson running wild all over the Colts defense.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS at CAROLINA PANTHERS Computer’s Pick: Carolina (+3) Bet Amount: $2.76 (Gamblor only)

COMMENTS: New Orleans looks lousy last week, but I don’t believe that is going to last.  They’ve got far too much pride to surrender to a lowly squad like the Panthers, and it’s a familiar team.  They got surprised by the Redskins last week, but they see the Panthers twice every year, and know exactly what they need to do against them.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS at BUFFALO BILLS Computer’s Pick: Kansas City (+3) Bet Amount: $8.66 (Gamblor only)

COMMENTS: Both teams were blown out last week, and will see this as a chance for redemption.  Normally I’d take the points here, but I like Buffalo to perform well in front of their home crowd and just barely cover the spread.

BALTIMORE RAVENS at PHILADELPHIA EAGLES Computer’s Pick: Philadelphia (-2.5) Bet Amount: $18.71 (Consensus)

COMMENTS: Once again, Gamblor feels like the Eagles are overrated in terms of the spread, and I agree wholeheartedly.  Philadelphia should not be favored in any game this season until they win.  They’re not going to start here.

OAKLAND RAIDERS at MIAMI DOLPHINS Computer’s Pick: Miami (+2.5) Bet Amount: $5.08 (Consensus)

COMMENTS: The Raiders <i>should</i> win this game, which means they won’t.  Miami is terrible, but I am confident they’ll find a way to shock an overconfident Raiders squad who are one of the absolute worst teams in the NFL to bet as a favorite.

CLEVELAND BROWNS at CINCINNATI BENGALS Computer’s Pick: Cleveland (+7) Bet Amount: None (Conflict)

COMMENTS: These teams are both bad, so it seems like the seven points is a nice incentive to take Cleveland.  Brandon Weeden couldn’t possibly be worse, to be sure.  I’m expecting a low-scoring affair, and with that the seven points in a godsend.

HOUSTON TEXANS at JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS Computer’s Pick: Houston (-7.5) Bet Amount: $5.09 (Consensus)

COMMENTS: For me, this is a really tough one to call.  It’s a divisional game, so there’s a decent chance it will be close.  But the Jaguars don’t really have much to bring to the table this year (much like every other year).  With a gun to my head, I’ll take Houston, but I certainly don’t have a strong feeling about this one.

DALLAS COWBOYS at SEATTLE SEAHAWKS Computer’s Pick: Seattle (+3) Bet Amount: $1.60 (Gamblor only)

COMMENTS: Everyone makes such a big deal out of how good Seattle is at home, but all the hype about Russel Wilson went out the window last week as he was easily contained by a mediocre Arizona secondary.  Dallas is going to be riding high after their victory over the Giants, and should slice up the Seahawks in short order.

WASHINGTON REDSKINS at SAINT LOUIS RAMS Computer’s Pick: Washington (-3) Bet Amount: $6.67 (Consensus)

COMMENTS: This is a fantastic second game for Robert Griffin.  The Rams won’t have the same enthusiasm they did during their first surprisingly close contest against the Lions, and Griffin will be able to play more casually, dispatching them with ease.

NEW YORK JETS at PITTSBURGH STEELERS Computer’s Pick: New York Jets (+6) Bet Amount: $18.84 (Gamblor only)

COMMENTS: I don’t like the Jets chances to win this game, but I do like their chances to cover.  I’m on board with the computer’s bet here.

TENNESSEE TITANS at SAN DIEGO CHARGERS Computer’s Pick: Tennessee (+6) Bet Amount: $13.31 (Gamblor only)

COMMENTS: Despite winning last week, San Diego didn’t look particularly threatening.  Even after they were gifted with astonishingly good field position last week after the Raiders long snapper got hurt, they still only managed a single touchdown.  Tennessee should be able to compete with them, and cover what is an inordinately large spread here.

DETROIT LIONS at SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS Computer’s Pick: Detroit (+6.5) Bet Amount: $1.61 (Consensus)

COMMENTS: I’m ready to drink the kool-aid and take the acid test.  San Francisco really looks to be the real deal.  As excited as I am about Detroit’s offensive attack, I don’t see them performing any better against the 49ers than the Packers did.  That said, this spread is too large in my opinion.  I think there’s better value with the Lions, who are more than capable of keeping this close or delivering a backdoor cover in garbage time.

DENVER BRONCOS at ATLANTA FALCONS Computer’s Pick: Denver (+3) Bet Amount: $3.63 (Son of Gamblor only)

COMMENTS: Denver looked pretty good against the Steelers, but they’re not ready to face an attack like the Falcons have.  Atlanta should win this one in a blowout.