Rebirth of Gamblor: Week 3 NFL Picks

Last week was another very fine week for the computer, with both models delivering solid performances.  Gamblor was 7-6 with a weighted win percentage of 66.6%, and Son of Gamblor was 4-4 with a weighted win percentage of 62.7%.  Given the low bet total, the computer’s profit was relatively slim at $58, but this week it sees a few games it has strong feelings about and is going to be more aggressive.  A lot more aggressive.

This week’s Game of Thrones pairing is the New York Jets and the House Baratheon.  It’s a very easy parallel to make; House Baratheon was led by its eldest son, a loud, brash, overbearing bear of a man who eventually was undone by his love of feasts, wine, and wenches.  The Jets, of course, have been under the stewardship of a similar character, the larger-than-life Rex Ryan.  The youngest Baratheon son, Renly, had substantial support to ascend to the throne upon Robert’s death, but this was primarily due to his skill at socializing, rather than any particular talent for leading.   His distaste for battle would have eventually led to his defeat.  Mark Sanchez had displayed similar tendencies; despite his popularity he was carried to victory by his surrounding cast, and it’s not clear he will ever ascend to be seen as the true leader of the team – especially not with the arrival of Stannis Baratheon’s counterpart, Tim Tebow.  While Tebow is much more amiable than the rigid, jaw-clenching Stannis, both are driven by an unbending faith in God and duty.  It’s too early in the season to decide whether the Jets are still in revolution mode, or that their time has already passed and their family will descend into discord, but it should be dramatic either way.

This week, the computer is going absolutely hog wild for the Bills and the Broncos.  While it’s easy to support the computer’s bet on the Bills, who are playing the pathetic Browns, the Texans dominance thus far has been enough to give me some serious concerns about betting on the Broncos.

NEW YORK GIANTS at CAROLINA PANTHERS Computer’s Pick: Carolina (+1.5) Bet Amount: $11.46 (Gamblor only)

COMMENTS: It’s going to take quite a bit for me to have faith in Carolina – they’re still one of the worst teams in football in my eyes – but they do seem to be getting better by the week, as long as Cam Newton stays healthy.  While I think the Giants will be patting themselves on the back for their incredible comeback against Tampa Bay, the comedown from that, plus traveling, plus playing on a short week, plus playing against a very hungry Panthers squad will all contribute to them losing this game.

SAINT LOUIS RAMS at CHICAGO BEARS Computer’s Pick: St. Louis (+8) Bet Amount: $0.23 (Son of Gamblor only)

COMMENTS: This spread is tilted way too far in favor of the Bears.  I like the Bears to win here, but without their primary running back (Forte), and considerable discord between Jay Cutler and his offensive line, they’re not in a good place to deliver a blowout win, as the spread seems to suggest.  I think Chicago wins this game, but the spread factors in and St. Louis covers.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS at DALLAS COWBOYS Computer’s Pick: Tampa Bay (+7) Bet Amount: $76.31 (Consensus)

COMMENTS: I can’t help but expect Tampa Bay to be completely deflated after blowing a fourth-quarter lead against the Superbowl champions, while Dallas should be energized by playing a weak opponent at home.  I like the Cowboys to win big here.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS at MINNESOTA VIKINGS Computer’s Pick: Minnesota (+7.5) Bet Amount: $19.60 (Consensus)

COMMENTS: Call me crazy, but I think Minnesota is going to shock the world here.  Despite the fact that last week I acknowledged that San Francisco looks to be the best team in the league, I still can’t see them piling up points on the Vikings, especially in Minnesota.  I like the Vikings to cover, and maybe even win this game.

DETROIT LIONS at TENNESSEE TITANS Computer’s Pick: Tennessee (+3) Bet Amount: $3.31 (Gamblor only)

COMMENTS: Sooner or later, Matt Stafford and Calvin Johnson are going to start connecting in a big way. I think it happens here.  It’s not like Tennessee is going to be able to generate any offense, so the Lions offense will have plenty of chances, and they’ll connect on some of them.  I didn’t realize how bad Tennessee was, but they got completely manhandled by a San Diego squad that had a tough time with a Raiders team that got blown out by Miami.  They’re terrible.

CINCINNATI BENGALS at WASHINGTON REDSKINS Computer’s Pick: Washington (-3.5) Bet Amount: $150.47 (Consensus)

COMMENTS: On an average week, this would be a pretty big bet for the computer.  This week, it’s only the fourth-largest.  The computer is all over Washington, and I can’t blame it.  I like the way the Redskins have looked on both sides of the ball, and assuming they cut the idiot who cost them the game last week, they should be able to overpower the Bengals in front of a rabid home crowd.

NEW YORK JETS at MIAMI DOLPHINS Computer’s Pick: New York Jets (-3) Bet Amount: $196.08 (Consensus)

COMMENTS: The Dolphins looked great against the Raiders, but don’t buy into it.  They’re still a lousy team with a rookie quarterback and a single offensive weapon (Reggie Bush) who has actually had very little impact since he arrived in the NFL.  The Jets will easily be able to shut Bush down.  Will they be able to put up points of their own?  That’s a tougher question.  I think if Rex Ryan turns Tebow loose and throws a lot of different looks at the Dolphins, the Jets should have enough success to win.  The line looks just about perfect to me, so I’m expecting a push, but I’m hoping the Jets will get lucky enough to eke out a few more points and cover.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS at NEW ORLEANS SAINTS Computer’s Pick: Kansas City (+9) Bet Amount: $1.25 (Gamblor only)

COMMENTS: The Chiefs are an abomination this year.  Bet the house on New Orleans to reorient their season beginning with this game.

BUFFALO BILLS at CLEVELAND BROWNS Computer’s Pick: Buffalo (-3) Bet Amount: $1372.93 (Consensus)

COMMENTS: Oh my.  The computer is absolutely in love with the Bills this week.  Like Miami, the Browns have only one weapon, and while Richardson definitely looks like a quality player, it’s not like the Bills are going to have to worry about anyone else.  In the meantime, the Bills ought to be able to recapture some of last season’s offensive magic in at least a few games this year.  I think this will be one of them.  I know I’m simply talking myself into it, but I actually like the computer’s bet here.  Good luck, Gamblor.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS Computer’s Pick: Indianapolis (-3) Bet Amount: $54.35 (Consensus)

COMMENTS: Andrew Luck is a smart guy, and he’s only going to get better the more he plays – in other words, he’s going to figure out defenses faster than they figure him out.  And Jacksonville won’t be hard to figure out.  I don’t see the Colts winning this one in a blowout, but I do see them winning, by at least a touchdown.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES at ARIZONA CARDINALS Computer’s Pick: Arizona (+4) Bet Amount: $16.09 (Gamblor only)

COMMENTS: Once again, the Eagles are vastly overrated.  I wish the computer were sinking $1300 into this game, but I guess I’ll have to settle for a relatively small hedge bet here.  It’s too bad – this one should be a lock.

ATLANTA FALCONS at SAN DIEGO CHARGERS Computer’s Pick: San Diego (-3) Bet Amount: $10.19 (Conflict)

COMMENTS: I’m not convinced that San Diego is as good as they’ve looked these first two weeks.  The only reason they blew out the Raiders was because Oakland couldn’t get a punt off, and Tennessee is absolutely terrible.  We’ll find out their true colors when they face this Falcons team.  As always, the Falcons are a big threat through the air, and I don’t think San Diego’s defense has truly been tested yet.  I like Atlanta to make this into a great game, and either win or cover here.

HOUSTON TEXANS at DENVER BRONCOS Computer’s Pick: Denver (0) Bet Amount: $550.94 (Consensus)

COMMENTS: Despite how good they’ve looked, Houston is going to lose a few games this season, and I sure hope this is one of them.  Despite their atrocious start on Monday night, Denver turned things around and almost pulled out a win against Atlanta, and I think their momentum will continue into this game against the Texans.  Look for Denver to completely sell out against the run, and while they’ll get burned a few times, they should mostly be able to contain the Texans.  In the meantime, Manning will pick away at the Texans defense until he’s got them figured out.  They won’t turn the ball over four times in the first quarter again.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS at OAKLAND RAIDERS Computer’s Pick: Oakland (+5) Bet Amount: $7.13 (Gamblor only)

COMMENTS: Oakland is having a true “rebuilding” year, and it was obvious from last week’s trouncing that they’re still stuck at the register at Home Depot.  Pittsburgh will win this one easily.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS at BALTIMORE RAVENS Computer’s Pick: Baltimore (-3) Bet Amount: $30.91 (Consensus)

COMMENTS: It’s strange; it’s almost like New England and Baltimore are engaged in some sort of Freaky Friday team switch.  I don’t think that will last, though.  I know Baltimore will want revenge for their playoff loss, and they might get it, but these teams are very evenly matched, and as such I’m happy to take the points.  I wish the computer agreed.

GREEN BAY PACKERS at SEATTLE SEAHAWKS Computer’s Pick: Seattle (+3.5) Bet Amount: $11.39 (Gamblor only)

COMMENTS: Seattle getting points at home?  Seems like free money.  As always, if it sounds too good to be true, it usually is.