Rebirth of Gamblor: Week 5 NFL Picks

Last week was another solid (albeit rather lucky) week for the computer.  With the gift of a push in the Eagles game, Gamblor went an impressive 9-4-1 with a weighted win percentage of 72.5%, and Son of Gamblor was 4-5-1 with a weighted win percentage of 62.6%.  This week, the computer is significantly more aggressive with its betting, having four bets of over a hundred dollars.

This week’s Game of Thrones comparison is the San Diego Chargers as House Tarly.  Tarly is actually one of the lesser-known houses in Westeros, having a lengthy existence but not having achieved particularly significant fame within the realm.  Similarly, the Chargers have been a fixture in football since their inception in 1961, and have had various eras of success, but have only reached the Superbowl once (losing to the San Francisco 49ers).  The greatest parallel between the two, of course, comes from Randyll Tarly’s exile of his oldest son in favor of the younger, and the Chargers’ dismissal of Drew Brees in favor of Philip Rivers.  In A Game of Thrones, the bookish Samwell Tarly is forced to join the Night’s Watch in order to escape the threats of his father in order to install the younger son, Dickon, as the heir.  Similarly San Diego drafted Drew Brees out of Purdue in 2001, but brought in Philip Rivers after the 2004 draft and eventually forced out Brees in 2005 after a shoulder injury.

As I mentioned above, the computer has decided to push its luck this week, throwing another big bet at the Buffalo Bills, who already delivered once for Gamblor this season.  Let’s see if they can do it again.

ARIZONA CARDINALS at SAINT LOUIS RAMS Computer’s Pick: St. Louis (+1) Bet Amount: $1.27 (Gamblor only)

COMMENTS: There’s not much that St. Louis has got going for itself in this game, aside from momentum from last week.  Arizona has managed a surprising 4-0 start, and St. Louis is a foe they know well.  They won’t have failed to prepare for this game, and winning is really all they’re need to do here.

ATLANTA FALCONS at WASHINGTON REDSKINS Computer’s Pick: Washington (+3) Bet Amount: $149.58 (Consensus)

COMMENTS: Despite how terrific Atlanta has looked, I feel like they have to come back to earth at some point.  I have a feeling that Washington is going to really exert themselves in this game to show that they can actually compete with top-level teams, and may even steal a win.  I like getting the points here.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES at PITTSBURGH STEELERS Computer’s Pick: Philadelphia (+3) Bet Amount: $2.02 (Gamblor only)

COMMENTS: As always, I’m happy to pick against Philadelphia until the spread starts catching up to them.  They’re really not a good team.

GREEN BAY PACKERS at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS Computer’s Pick: Indianapolis (+7) Bet Amount: $5.55 (Gamblor only)

COMMENTS: Green Bay should be able to sleepwalk through this game and still win by 21 points.  Indianapolis is still only a season removed from last year’s disaster; they haven’t gained enough talent to be able to compete with a great (if fading) team like the Packers.

CLEVELAND BROWNS at NEW YORK GIANTS Computer’s Pick: Cleveland (+9.5) Bet Amount: None (Conflict)

COMMENTS: I can’t see the Giants getting up for this game at all.  It’s against an unfamiliar opponent that doesn’t deserve any respect, so the Giants won’t bother to put much into their preparation for it.  They won’t put Cleveland away as they should, and the Browns will be able to hang around and cover the spread.

TENNESSEE TITANS at MINNESOTA VIKINGS Computer’s Pick: Tennessee (+5.5) Bet Amount: $17.32 (Gamblor only)

COMMENTS: I don’t have a strong feeling about this game, to be honest.  I like what I’ve seen from the Vikings, and it’s hard to imagine that Adrian Peterson won’t have a great day against a lackluster Titans run defense, but 5.5 points seems like a lot for a mediocre team like the Vikings to handle.  I guess I’d take the Titans here, but the spread in this one seems to be right where it ought to be.

MIAMI DOLPHINS at CINCINNATI BENGALS Computer’s Pick: Miami (+4) Bet Amount: $9.67 (Gamblor only)

COMMENTS: At this point in the season, I feel like Miami is better than people are giving them credit for, and Cincinnati is worse.  Based on that, I like the Dolphins and the points here.

BALTIMORE RAVENS at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS Computer’s Pick: Kansas City (+4.5) Bet Amount: $10.42 (Gamblor only)

COMMENTS: All of a sudden Baltimore’s offense has a surplus of weapons.  Based on nothing at all, I predict that Stanford Routt (the player I hate most in the NFL) will get torched for four touchdowns and Baltimore will blow Kansas City away.  Based on actual common sense, I’d expect Kansas City to actually hold their own in front of a home crowd and cover this spread.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS at CAROLINA PANTHERS Computer’s Pick: Carolina (-3) Bet Amount: $195.01 (Consensus)

COMMENTS: Carolina seems like they’re ready to fall apart.  But Seattle is a lot weaker on the road, and they’re making a very long trip here.  I hate to be wishy-washy about this one, but I’m anticipating a push here.

CHICAGO BEARS at JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS Computer’s Pick: Chicago (-5.5) Bet Amount: None (Conflict)

COMMENTS: Pretty much the exact opposite of the Panthers, I think the Bears are ready to catch fire.  As long as they provide Cutler with enough time to get rid of the ball, he’s going to light Jacksonville up.  I like Chicago to handle the Jaguars with ease here and embarrass them at home.

DENVER BRONCOS at NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS Computer’s Pick: Denver (+7) Bet Amount: $144.53 (Consensus)

COMMENTS: There’s no way that Peyton Manning fails to keep this one close.  I love the computer’s bet here.  Love it.

BUFFALO BILLS at SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS Computer’s Pick: Buffalo (+9.5) Bet Amount: $598.09 (Consensus)

COMMENTS: Not quite so much love here, though.  I wish Buffalo were getting more points – it would push the computer’s bet down a bit and give them a better chance to cover.  Right now the money is rolling in on the 49ers, though, and the line isn’t moving, so I guess Vegas is content to take their chances on the Bills, and Gamblor is too.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS at NEW ORLEANS SAINTS Computer’s Pick: San Diego (+4) Bet Amount: $4.72 (Gamblor only)

COMMENTS: Is New Orleans really going to lose five games in a row?  Probably not.  But I don’t think they’ll cover.  Expect a shootout here.

HOUSTON TEXANS at NEW YORK JETS Computer’s Pick: New York Jets (+8) Bet Amount: $9.63 (Consensus)

COMMENTS: With their backs against the wall, I’m predicting that the Jets are surprisingly competitive in this game.  They won’t win, but they’ll try.