I Call Him SON OF GAMBLOR! Week 12 NFL Picks

Written by Football, Sports

Whoops – sorry for getting this posted so late.  There’s no money wagered on the Lions game, and the other bets for today are pretty small, so you’re not missing much.  I’ll be updating picks throughout the morning, but this should get you started for today’s games.  Happy Thanksgiving!

Ouch.  Last weekend was brutal.  On any given Sunday there are three things with the potential to make me happy (Raiders, gambling, fantasy football), and last week all three went bad in the worst possible ways. I watched my Raiders get blown out a very important game 35-3, my top 3 bets of the week (Miami, Arizona, and San Francisco) lost by a combined score of 68-13, and my fantasy opponent put up 158 points against me en route to the second-highest point total in our league for the entire season, knocking me down into a tie for the fourth and final playoff spot.  Gamblor’s losses were pretty frustrating, but were mitigated to some degree by the fact that the sportsbooks also took a huge beating as well.  The books lost ALL of the games that featured lopsided betting (including 90% of bets on Baltimore, 87% of bets on Atlanta, 77% of bets on Philadelphia, and 72% of bets on Green Bay) and only won four games against the public’s twelve.  My total losses for the week were $205, which brings my season’s winnings down to $1368.  Let’s hope the computer breaks it’s recent slump this week, though it’s actually a pretty quiet week with only less than $200 in total bets unless something really wild happens with one the three games (CAR-CLE, TEN-HOU, and MIA-OAK) where the line hasn’t been set yet.

Away Home Spread Gamblor’s Pick Bet Amount Son of Gamblor’s Pick Bet Amount Overall Pick Overall Bet
NEP at DET 7 DET $2.64 NEP $2.54 DET
NOS at DAL 3.5 DAL $6.36 DAL $6.36
CIN at NYJ -9 CIN $8.71 NYJ $2.38 CIN $6.33
CAR at CLE -7.5 CAR $5.84 CAR $1.06 CAR $6.90
TEN at HOU -7 TEN $3.84 TEN
MIA at OAK -3 MIA $13.35 MIA $13.35
MIN at WAS -2 MIN $3.72 MIN $0.11 MIN
PIT at BUF 6.5 BUF $4.30 BUF
JAC at NYG -7 JAC $0.92 NYG $0.30 JAC
GNB at ATL -2 GNB $6.99 ATL $2.36 GNB
KAN at SEA 1.5 SEA $12.38 SEA $12.38
TAM at BAL -7.5 BAL $20.69 BAL $71.35 BAL $92.03
PHI at CHI 3 CHI $4.41 CHI $0.05 CHI
STL at DEN -4 STL $20.57 STL $20.57
SND at IND -3 SND $24.07 SND $2.40 SND $26.47
SNF at ARI 1 ARI $9.40 ARI $9.40

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NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
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DETROIT LIONS
Computer’s Pick: Detroit (+7)
Bet Amount: $0.10 (Conflict)
COMMENTS: I’m glad I don’t have to bet on this game.  All signs point to New England completely destroying the Lions, as all their opponents do on Thanksgiving games, but a line of just +7 implies that something crazy might happen here – like Detroit breaking their string of consecutive blowout losses on Thanksgiving.  This feels like an early Christmas present from Vegas to the public (88% of whom are currently betting on the Patriots) but we all should know better than to trust the good intentions of the bookies.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
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DALLAS COWBOYS
Computer’s Pick: Dallas (+3.5)
Bet Amount: $6.36 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: New Orleans looked pretty polished last week, and with Reggie Bush back they should be even stronger.  Dallas had a nice little surge playing for Jason Garrett, but as with rookie quarterbacks who have a few nice games when they get their first few starts, the honeymoon usually ends pretty quickly after the opposition has had a chance to study their tendencies.  Sean Payton will make the most of the material he’s seen from Garrett and Kitna, and his Saints won’t have any trouble with the Cowboys this week.
CINCINNATI BENGALS
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NEW YORK JETS
Computer’s Pick: Cincinnati (+9)
Bet Amount: $6.33 (Conflict)
COMMENTS: The Jets keep gutting out games, and this matchup favors them in a big way.  I’m not sure whether they’ll be able to cover the full nine points, though – look for some junk-time points by the Bengals to slide in through the back door.
CAROLINA PANTHERS
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CLEVELAND BROWNS
Computer’s Pick: Carolina (+7.5)
Bet Amount: $6.90 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: Yuck. But maybe…no, Carolina has got no chance.  I’m not even sure the 0-16 Lions were quite this bad.
TENNESSEE TITANS
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HOUSTON TEXANS
Computer’s Pick: Tennessee (+7)
Bet Amount: $3.84 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: I’m once again glad there’s no money on the line here (it’s below the $5 minimum).  Tennessee is going to have some serious issues dealing with the Vince Young situation and it *will* show up on the field.  This game should be something of a freebie for the Texans.
MIAMI DOLPHINS
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OAKLAND RAIDERS
Computer’s Pick: Miami (+3)
Bet Amount: $13.35 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: Oakland *should* be able to win this game.  But they will have been terribly demoralized by last week’s embarrassment against the Steelers, who moved up and down the field with ease.  To add to their woes, they’ve got something of a quarterback controversy, as both Campbell and Gradkowski are both *almost* good enough to lead the team.  But not quite.  I’ll  be attempting to buy the Raiders a victory by adding $20 to the computer’s bet, and keeping my fingers crossed that I lose this bet – though I don’t expect to.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS
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WASHINGTON REDSKINS
Computer’s Pick: Minnesota (+2)
Bet Amount: $3.84 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: Minnesota fell to pieces against the Packers last week, and will continue to slide by losing to the Redskins by a healthy margin.  Favre will start, suffer a dubious injury sometime in the third quarter after a pick-six puts the Vikings down 31-10, and it will be one of the last times we see him on the football field.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS
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BUFFALO BILLS
Computer’s Pick: Buffalo (+6.5)
Bet Amount: $4.30 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: Why is this spread so small?  Oh yeah, because the Steelers are notorious for failing to cover the spread in these “gimme” games.  I’m very glad to be avoiding this game, because it really seems like a coin toss between a 42-6 Steelers rout or a very shady 23-17 Steelers win and Bills cover.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
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NEW YORK GIANTS
Computer’s Pick: Jacksonville (+7)
Bet Amount: $0.61 (Conflict)
COMMENTS: This seems like an awful lot of points for a surprisingly strong Jacksonville team against a seriously slumping Giants team that seemed absolutely determined to give Philadelphia the ball back at the end of last week’s game.  The Giants offense has really suffered from the loss of Steve Smith, while Maurice Jones-Drew has finally emerged for the Jaguars (and for many fantasy owners who have suffered through his slow start).  I think Jacksonville should be able to make this into a close game and cover the spread.
GREEN BAY PACKERS
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ATLANTA FALCONS
Computer’s Pick: Green Bay (+2)
Bet Amount: $4.63 (Conflict)
COMMENTS: I keep looking at Green Bay’s record and thinking to myself “how on earth did any team – let alone three of them – manage to beat the Packers?”  Last season was the same way.  Even with a completely one-dimensional and predictable offensive, they’re still unstoppable.  It’s going to be interesting to see if Atlanta can match them.  I sincerely doubt it.  As with most Green Bay games, I foresee a blowout  – I don’t care where they’re playing or who they’re playing against.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
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SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
Computer’s Pick: Seattle (+1.5)
Bet Amount: $12.38 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: Seattle is demonstrably better at home, but they seem like they’re starting to fall into a hole.  Kansas City, on the other hand, should be feeling energized after recapturing the division lead with an easy victory against the Cardinals last week.  I like Kansas City to gut out another victory despite Seattle’s home field advantage.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
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BALTIMORE RAVENS
Computer’s Pick: Baltimore (-7.5)
Bet Amount: $92.03 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: Baltimore is like a solidly managed mutual fund – they won’t necessarily put up huge quarters, but betting on them will provide a pretty good return year after year.  As much fun as I’ve had watching Tampa Bay this season, I think they’re simply outmatched here.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
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CHICAGO BEARS
Computer’s Pick: Chicago (+3)
Bet Amount: $4.46 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: How on earth can anyone stop the Eagles?  I have the feeling that Chicago will try to compete with them in a shootout and Philadelphia’s defense will eat Jay Cutler for breakfast, picking up plenty of turnovers along the way.  You don’t expect to see many 7-3 teams get blown out, but don’t be surprised if that’s what happens here.
SAINT LOUIS RAMS
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DENVER BRONCOS
Computer’s Pick: St. Louis (+4)
Bet Amount: $20.57 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: Two struggling teams.  This will mostly be a celebration of ineptitude, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see a lot of points, but I don’t expect it to be a very exciting game.  I’d take the points here – Denver is capable of losing to anyone, and they’re not nearly good enough to be favored by this much.
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
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INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Computer’s Pick: San Diego (+3)
Bet Amount: $26.47 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: I wish these teams were both at full strength – it would have been fascinating.  Instead, we’ll be treated to Phillip Rivers relying heavily on the returning Vincent Jackson against Indianapolis’s weak defense, and Peyton Manning growing more and more frustrated with Jacob Tamme’s drops against a solid San Diego side.  I think San Diego should be able to win this one without too much trouble – they’re a much stronger team at this point in the season.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
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ARIZONA CARDINALS
Computer’s Pick: Arizona (+1)
Bet Amount: $9.40 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: Ugh.  Why even bother?  I’ll take Arizona, but only because they’re at home.

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Week GAMBLOR SON OF GAMBLOR Profit
W L P Weighted Wins Weighted Picks Weighted Win % W L P Weighted Wins Weighted Picks Weighted Win %
1 9 4 3 1681 1876 89.6% 6 0 2 3692 3692 100.0% $647.02
2 10 5 1 918 1030 89.1% 5 3 486 491 99.0% $206.10
3 13 3 1203 1428 84.2% 5 4 1132 1988 56.9% $184.96
4 8 6 672 891 75.4% 3 4 1343 1832 73.3% $200.21
5 6 5 411 583 70.5% 9 3 974 1477 66.0% $372.58
6 4 7 1 432 559 77.3% 2 3 649 727 89.2% $121.28
7 8 6 666 2401 27.7% 3 4 1792 3924 45.7% -$291.65
8 7 5 507 1000 50.7% 6 2 1526 2876 53.1% $6.96
9 6 6 1 1625 1768 91.9% 5 2 1766 2017 87.6% $462.73
10 8 5 1077 2707 39.8% 3 5 1996 5620 35.5% -$337.12
11 6 10 260 999 26.0% 6 4 921 2577 35.7% -$204.94
Total 85 62 6 9450 15241 62.0% 53 34 2 16277 27222 59.8% $1,368.13