Posts Tagged ‘The Economy’

Pop Politico: “Trust”

The “hit the ground running” strategy the Obama Administration has adhered to since the inauguration has an unfortunate side effect:  It’s making people impatient for positive change in the economy, the war in Iraq, and the general sense of malaise that has permeated not only the U.S. but most of the world as well.

Managing expectations is a tough thing to do when, for example, Obama’s presidential campaign was premised on the keywords of “Change” and “Hope.” People are expecting rapid change; a wave of a magic wand and things will be “back to normal.”  But whatever “normal” was, we’re not going back — hell, I don’t think we even want to go back.  Clearly, we’re at the proverbial turning point where the current economic problems that plague the world  aren’t going to go away in a few months. And if there were ever an image that sums up the shock, frustration, and collective inability of the world’s leadership to manage this crisis, it would be Desmond Tutu’s excessive emoting at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.

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As the political culture in Washington D.C. frets over the likes of Tom Daschle and certain provisions in the economic stimulus plan, there’s very little talk about the nature of the global economic mess we’re in. Perhaps it’s just easier to concentrate on taxes owed, pork barrel spending, what constitutes lobbying, but it seems whatever heavy lifting that is done by our friends in the mainstream media to enlighten us plebs on the details of this economic crisis, is undercut by a plethora of “sexy news stories” designed for easy consumption.  Fortunately, the information is out there, and while it’s not really that sexy to read, it does illuminate the enormity of the crisis and how we got to where we are.

To wit: The Economist has a wonkish, but ultimately helpful feature in the January 24th-30th edition that was broken up into a series of articles examining the current financial crisis from a number of perspectives.  Now, I’m not an economist, but after reading through the articles, I have a good sense of why the economic leaders who convened in Switzerland haven’t a clue what is to be done.  Ideology and downright confusion over the mechanisms that brought us to this current state have a great deal to do with it.  Not all who attended the conference were die hard capitalist, but many were and it seems the “way out” of this mess involves a partnership with an entity capitalists tend to dread: the State.  Like it or not, the State is the only entity with the wherewithal to instill an important “soft factor” in the economy: optimism.  Optimism bolsters trust, and our capitalist economies thrive when these, admittedly, difficult to quantify variables are strong. (more…)

Pop Politico: “Crisis Politics”

Between the Devil and the deep blue sea. Those are our options in dealing with this financial mess — or so it seems if you’ve been following events since the initial government bailout of Freddie and Fannie. Our, ahem, esteemed leaders in the Bush Administration have acted in a way that’s all too familiar when there are warning signs in the air: do nothing until critical mass has been reached, then make an unprecedented power grab in the name of security. We’ve seen this before: Bush ignores a report about Bin Laden hell bent on attacking the U.S. – and one method is using hijacking airplanes and flying them into icons of western power. 9/11 happens, and what’s the response? How were we to know that terrorists would use airplanes as missiles?

The run-up to the Iraq war: a case study in scaring the hell out of Americans. You remember, right? That “New Hitler” named Saddam Hussein was this close to getting The Bomb, and if we didn’t act, well, let’s just say mushroom clouds going off in American cities would have been in our immediate future. If that wasn’t enough, just throw in a few references to 9/11, Bin Laden, terrorism and one, two, three, we have a compliant populace ready to surrender those pesky things called rights to the government — all in the name of security and overthrowing the New Hitler.

This, my friends, is crisis politics in a nutshell, and it all comes at a price. How much, you say? Well get this: we’re spending over $300 million a day in Iraq, the cost of creating our newest bureaucracy (The Department of Homeland Security) is roughly $37-40 billion a year, and now with the current financial crisis, Congress is supposed to roll over and play dead while they hand over $700 billion (perhaps $1.8 trillion) to the Treasury Secretary to bail out failing or failed financial institutions. You start to add that up, and you’ll see we’re talking about real money here. Might I add that all of this money is being allocated and spent as both candidates for president are talking about tax cuts. If it all seems a bit unreal, that’s because it is. The debt that the government is incurring won’t be paid by us here and now (because, you know, taxes are evil). Rather, it’s being pushed farther and farther into the future where our profligate debt will be some other generation’s problem. (more…)

Pop Politico: “Swing! Swing! Swing!”

The current breathless “Sarah Palin Watch” going on in the mainstream and not-so-mainstream media is one of those political phenomena where the accuracy of her claims doesn’t really matter to those outside the chattering class. That’s because it’s not so much what she says as the image she projects. But that image has to project a certain something with keywords directed to the political base and swing voters (at this point in the game, swing voters are about 21% of the electorate and they have a high opinion of both McCain/Palin and Obama/Biden).

If you had a chance to see Palin’s big debut at the Republican convention, it’s clear she can throw a punch with a red meat speech written for her. However, one thing that’s not too clear (well, not to casual political watchers) is Palin’s inside-the-Beltway political tactics regarding allegations of abuse of power as governor of Alaksa. The so-called “Troopergate” scandal (can we get away from attaching “gate” to political scandals?), and her behind-the-scenes maneuverings to gum up the investigation give us a glimpse of what a McCain administration would be like if Sarah is part of the day-to-day business of governing in the White House. However, because Republicans are masters at changing the political narrative, we’ll have to wait to see how this plays out in the future. In the meantime, it’s an out-and-out hard sell for the hearts and minds of swing voters.

The latest polling indicates that 42% of the electorate are committed to Barack Obama, and 37% are committed to John McCain, so now you see what the game is: make sure your base of support is motivated to show up on voting day, and lure as many swing voters as you can. The 5% difference in committed votes between the candidates means they have to hustle and speak to those who are on the fence. What do the fence sitters want to hear the candidates talk about? The expression “It’s the economy, stupid” is pretty much front and center. Forget “Hockey mom,” or “Executive experience” for swing voters; candidates have to convince them that they can address their concerns.

What are swing voters concerned about? Pretty much the same thing as the majority of the electorate: (more…)

Pop Politico: “Greetings from Economy Class”

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The Bureau of Labor Statistics for July states that 5.7% of Americans are unemployed. Percentages are sometimes difficult to visualize, so how about this number: 8.8 million people are officially out of work.

The number of the unemployed is actually higher, because the BLS only counts people who file for unemployment insurance.   However, in the official numbers, you can view the stats by certain categories to see who’s losing a lot of ground.  In July, whites were unemployed at around the national average (5.1%).  If you’re African American or Latino, the unemployment rates are much higher (9.7% and 7.4%, respectively).

One of the most shocking numbers is for teenagers.  Yep, teens get a category, and the rate is just a little over 20%.  For a bit of a comparison, the unemployment rate peaked at 25% in 1933 for all workers.  Of course, that’s an average, and there were parts of the country were whole populations were unemployed because of something called the Great Depression.  These days we’re not anywhere near depression levels in terms of unemployment and the economy tanking, but we are in an era where a number of factors have aligned to produce a real downward drag on sectors of the economy.  The price of oil, the credit mess, war, real estate woes, decreased consumer spending, and prices for goods and services increasing mean that we’re going to languish in the economic doldrums for the next year or so. Businesses are spending less, too. If staff cuts can balance out the bottom line, then cut away — or face extinction.

Government solutions to crises like this run the gamut of tax cuts to direct cash payments to individuals to stimulate the economy back into a period of growth.  The economic stimulus checks that went out did help goose the economy a bit as consumer spending slightly rose.  But really, people aren’t complete fools, and most paid down their debt or saved the money if they could afford to. It seems in the “rational actor” world of economics, people know we’re in a shitstorm, and they’re battening down the hatches. (more…)