Gamblor Raids Again: Week 9 NFL Picks

Written by Football, Sports

Last week the computer looked brilliant thanks to only one team: the Philadelphia Eagles.  The computer nailed its second-biggest bet of the season ($335) and collecting positive juice to boot (+105, for a return of $352).  I spent the weekend agonizing over the spread; I had placed my bet on Friday at -3.5, and the books had dropped it to -3 on Saturday, which would have been a smaller – and safer – bet.  Fortunately, the Eagles delivered in a big way, serving up a dominant performance that has led to an inflated line this week against the Bears, which means that Gambor likes them even more this week.  Overall, most of the computer’s bets performed poorly, as the father went 3-9 and the son went 3-5 with their picks, but both totals were vastly inflated by the Philadelphia bet, leading to weighted win percentages of 66.1% and 90.8%, and a total profit of $264, which helps alleviate some of this season’s losses.

Before I get to this week’s bets, I wanted to share something.  A few weeks ago, my favorite football blog kissingsuzykolber.com got into a dust-up with a PR firm that represents Bernard Berrian.  One of their contributors, Matt Ufford, put together a series of satirical twitter feuds to poke fun at a gaffe Berrian had committed when he unknowingly told a paraplegic Iraq war veteran to “sit down and shut up.”  While the original issue between Berrian and the veteran was settled without particular fanfare, the PR folks threatened to file a lawsuit against Ufford (another veteran), even after he added a disclaimer to the original post (which was obviously satirical, considering it included tweets from the Dali Lama and Marshmallow, an adorable golden retriever puppy).  Although KSK originally backed down and pulled the post, they have since republished it, along with a weekly count of Berrian’s catches each week.  Unfortunately, the Bernard Berrian Catchwatch 2011 might have to be discontinued, because Berrian was released by the Vikings.  His swan song with the team featured five catches for 54 yards in the garbage time of a 39-10 loss to the Bears, but his most memorable play of the night happened on 3rd down, deep in Vikings territory, when the game was still within reach:

[kml_flashembed movie="http://www.youtube.com/v/GVmRbqK2Pp8" width="560" height="315" allowfullscreen="true" fvars="fs=1" /]

Since Berrian’s handlers obviously can’t take a joke, I thought it would be fun to pile on to Berrian with a contribution of my own that reflects one of my favorite things to do here at Popdose.  I present to you a series songs about and inspired by the performance and attitude of the former #87 of the Minnesota Vikings: The Ultimate Bernard Berrian Mixtape (full mix is available over on Spotify).

1.  “Fraud in the 80’s” by Mates of State
2.  “Drop it Like It’s Hot” by Snoop Dog and Pharrell Williams
3.  “Stuck in a Crowd” by Alpha Rev
4.  “Incomplete” by Bad Religion
5.  “Mr. Disappointment” by Neil Young
6.  “Locked Down” by Turbonegro
7.  “Like White on Rice” by The Thursday Group
8.  “Pressure Drop” by Toots & The Maytals
9.  “Never Alone” by Jeff Beck
10.  “No Threat” by The Tragically Hip
11.  “Covered” by Marike Jager
12.  “No Excuses” by Alice in Chains
13.  “Passed Over” by Dub Conspiracy and Knowers Ark
14.  “Sit Down” by James
15.  “I’m on the Sideline” by Eddie Kendricks
16.  “Bad Attitude” by Deep Purple
17.  “Dropped” by Phantom Planet
18.  “Cut” by Jimmy Eat World
19.  “Castaway” by Transit
20.  “Release Me” by Wilson Phillips

 

Away Home Spread Gamblor’s Pick Bet Amount Son of Gamblor’s Pick Bet Amount Overall Pick Overall Bet
ATL at IND 7 IND $7.11 IND $7.11
TAM at NOS -8 TAM $10.47 TAM $10.47
CLE at HOU -11 CLE $10.08 CLE $10.08
NYJ at BUF -1.5 NYJ $11.07 NYJ $11.07
MIA at KAN -4 MIA $2.04 MIA $1.06 MIA
SNF at WAS 3.5 WAS $2.44 WAS $59.80 WAS $62.24
SEA at DAL -12 SEA $6.39 SEA $6.39
DEN at OAK -8.5 DEN $15.21 DEN $15.21
CIN at TEN -3 CIN $8.04 CIN $8.04
NYG at NEP -8.5 NYG $2.57 NYG $0.16 NYG
GNB at SND 6 SND $5.07 SND $5.07
STL at ARI -3 STL $5.60 STL $5.60
BAL at PIT -3.5 BAL $3.62 BAL
CHI at PHI -8 PHI $174.15 PHI $319.55 PHI $493.70

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ATLANTA FALCONS
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INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Computer’s Pick: Indianapolis (+7)
Bet Amount: $7.11 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: Indianapolis has lost four straight games against the spread – and it took 10 or more points for them to cover in the two games this season when they did.  I think they have completely packed it in for the season.  They’ll probably put forth a minimum of effort a couple of times against divisional opponents, but there’s no reason for them to get motivated to play against an Atlanta squad that’s still looking to establish itself offensively.  It may take a quarter for the Falcons to shake off the rust from their bye week, but with Julio Jones headed back onto the field for them, they will be looking to put up a lot of points and the Colts won’t trouble themselves to stop them.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
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NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
Computer’s Pick: Tampa Bay (+8)
Bet Amount: $10.47 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: I’m really not sure what happened to the Saints last weekend as they lost to the previously winless Rams, and I’m not sure whether it’s something serious or just a momentary lapse of  concentration.  What I am sure of, though, is that the Buccaneers will play a tight game against them.  Eight points seems like a pretty nice gift for a divisional matchup of this nature, so I’m glad Gamblor is taking them.
CLEVELAND BROWNS
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HOUSTON TEXANS
Computer’s Pick: Cleveland (+11)
Bet Amount: $10.08 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: Cleveland seems like it should have a worse record than 3-4.  Guess what?  It should.  Its three wins came against Indianapolis, Miami, and Seattle.  The Browns have not faced a single team with a high-powered offense, so it’s a bit tougher to predict how their defense will hold up.  Still, that same defense gave up 31 points to the Tennessee Titans and 27 points to the Cincinnati Bengals in Andy Dalton’s first ever NFL start, so they’re probably pretty bad.  I don’t see any reason not to expect Houston to put up a big score in this game and cover the spread handily.
NEW YORK JETS
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BUFFALO BILLS
Computer’s Pick: New York Jets (+1.5)
Bet Amount: $11.07 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: The Jets seemed to get things back on track with a pair of wins against Miami and San Diego before heading into their bye, while Buffalo has slipped a bit lately after an incredible start to their season.  I think this has the potential to be a great game.  With their receivers shut down, Buffalo will be relying very heavily on Fred Jackson both on the ground and receiving passes out of the backfield.  The Jets will need their offense to function efficiently.  I can’t see a major advantage for either of these teams, so I suppose I’m glad to have the points here, but I really don’t see this as anything more than a coin toss.
MIAMI DOLPHINS
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KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Computer’s Pick: Miami (+4)
Bet Amount: $3.10 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: The Kansas City Chiefs really did everything they possibly could to hand the game to the Chargers last Monday night, but failed.  I’m doubtful that they’ll extend Miami the same courtesy, but it may not matter.  While their defense looked incredibly sharp, their offense sputtered to death in the second half.  Miami has lost its last two games by a field goal each, and are obviously making sure that nobody can apply the label “quitters” to them if they do end up on the podium reading out Andrew Luck’s name.  If this game were to be played in Miami, I’d take the points and give the Dolphins the nod.  As it is, the spread looks a shade too low to me, suggesting a trap is in the works, but I still think Kansas City is the better team by at least a touchdown.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
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WASHINGTON REDSKINS
Computer’s Pick: Washington (+3.5)
Bet Amount: $62.24 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: With the quarterback woes that the Redskins are facing, I can’t see them being competitive in this game.  I would not be surprised at the end of the game to find out that San Francisco’s average starting field position was the 40 yard line.  The Washington 40 yard line.  Should be 49ers all day long in this one.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
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DALLAS COWBOYS
Computer’s Pick: Seattle (+12)
Bet Amount: $6.39 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: Dallas will obviously be looking to atone for their embarrassing loss to the Eagles on Sunday night, but it is really appropriate for the Cowboys to be 12 point favorites immediately after suffering a 34-7 loss?  Especially to a team that’s only one game worse than them on paper?  I’m not buying it.  Seattle is awful, but until Dallas shows some consistency, I wouldn’t trust them to cover this large of a spread.
DENVER BRONCOS
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OAKLAND RAIDERS
Computer’s Pick: Denver (+8.5)
Bet Amount: $15.21 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: I have the feeling that something horrible is going to happen to the Raiders in this game and they’ll actually find a way to lose.  They shouldn’t be trusted.
CINCINNATI BENGALS
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TENNESSEE TITANS
Computer’s Pick: Cincinnati (+3)
Bet Amount: $8.04 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: Given that every fantasy expert is suggesting that it’s now time to bench Chris Johnson, be ready for him to deliver a 200 yard, 3 touchdown performance.  In all seriousness, though, he’ll probably deliver another disappointing game, with the Bengals controlling the ball relatively well.  Tennessee has been surprisingly resilient despite Johnson’s failure to perform, but I think they’re overmatched here and will simply lose by a relatively slim margin – but not slim enough to cover the spread.
NEW YORK GIANTS
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NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Computer’s Pick: New York Giants (+8.5)
Bet Amount: $2.73 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: This one has shootout written all over it, and I think that the Giants will be able to keep up with the Patriots for the most part.  That being the case, getting more than a touchdown’s worth of points should be enough to factor in, so I’d take the Giants here.
GREEN BAY PACKERS
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SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
Computer’s Pick: San Diego (+6)
Bet Amount: $5.07 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: Given that the Chargers just allowed Matt Cassel to throw for 262 yards against them, I wouldn’t forecast great things for them against Aaron Rodgers.  You’d have to be crazy to bet against Green Bay right now anyhow.  I’m glad that Gamblor is only a little crazy.
SAINT LOUIS RAMS
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ARIZONA CARDINALS
Computer’s Pick: St. Louis (+3)
Bet Amount: $5.60 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: This is a tough one to call, and an even tougher one to care about.  I’ll take the Cardinals, but only because they’re at home.
BALTIMORE RAVENS
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PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Computer’s Pick: Baltimore (+3.5)
Bet Amount: $3.62 (Gamblor only)
COMMENTS: This ought to be a revenge game for the Steelers, who were humiliated during the trip to Baltimore during the first week of the season, but it’s not like they’re going to be able to walk over the Ravens.  Given the Steelers’ injury issues at linebacker, I’m envisioning that Ray Rice will have a huge day and carry the Ravens to a victory, and the points will just be gravy.
CHICAGO BEARS
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PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Computer’s Pick: Philadelphia (-8)
Bet Amount: $493.70 (Consensus)
COMMENTS: Let’s remember what happened last time Michael Vick played on Monday night: 20/28 passing, 333 yards, 4TD.  Also 80 yards rushing, 2 TD.  The Eagles beat the Redskins 59-28.  The Eagles have won their last three Monday night games in a row, all by at least 10 points.  With so much money on the line, I’ll be plenty worried about this one, even though I probably shouldn’t be.

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Week GAMBLOR SON OF GAMBLOR Profit
W L P Weighted Wins Weighted Picks Weighted Win % W L P Weighted Wins Weighted Picks Weighted Win %
1 7 6 2 331 1305 25.4% 5 3 497 2739 18.1% -$375.32
2 7 7 579 1184 48.9% 3 5 1897 4154 45.7% -$66.41
3 11 5 548 686 79.9% 3 4 935 1402 66.7% $136.36
4 6 10 143 572 25.0% 1 7 34 2711 1.3% -$404.87
5 6 6 1 376 679 55.4% 2 3 1 110 287 38.2% -$0.56
6 2 6 1 50 127 39.4% 3 4 28 51 54.2% -$1.21
7 7 4 1 323 1054 30.6% 3 1 663 1036 64.0% -$75.12
8 3 9 565 855 66.1% 3 5 1573 1733 90.8% $264.60
Total 49 53 5 2915 6462 45.1% 23 32 1 5736 14112 40.6% -$522.53