Two-bit analysis follows.
This year’s ballot:
Best Picture: Birdman
Best Director: Alexander Gonzalez Inarritu, Birdman
Best Actor: Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
Best Actress: Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Best Supporting Actor: J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
Best Supporting Actress: Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Best Adapted Screenplay: The Imitation Game
Best Original Screenplay: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Animated Feature Film: How to Train Your Dragon 2
Best Foreign Language Film: Ida
Best Documentary Feature: Citizenfour
Best Documentary Short: Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1
Best Animated Short: A Single Life
Best Live Action Short: The Phone Call
Best Cinematography: Birdman
Best Costume Design: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Film Editing: Boyhood
Best Makeup and Hairstyling: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Original Score: The Theory of Everything
Best Original Song: “Glory,” Selma
Best Production Design: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Sound Editing: American Sniper
Best Sound Mixing: American Sniper
Best Visual Effects: Interstellar
Two-bit analysis: I got into this yesterday. I’m not sure I myself can vote against Keaton, but Oscar isn’t terribly sentimental, so if you’re in it to win it, pick Redmayne. (And the Selma song over Glen Campbell, even if he is living, bravely, what Moore is just playacting in the mediocre Still Life, one of the least seen “Oscar performances” since Jessica Lange in Blue Sky in 1994.)
Besides the three actors and Citizenfour (not my favorite documentary nominee but the one with the zeitgeist), this is a pretty open year–not so much, though, that what will turn out to be the year’s biggest hit, American Sniper, will win much besides a couple of technical honors. It’s “divisive” among the left-leaning crowd that welcomed that rare fully attentive Clint Eastwood film into the fold, which the Oscar bloggers sure didn’t see coming when it opened in early December. But it’s since suffered the death by a thousand posts regarding historical accuracy that bumped off the unfortunately maligned Selma, leaving another movie about movies and movie stars, Birdman, as a safe haven. I still prefer Boyhood, which has a shot yet seems to have peaked early. That said, look for The Grand Budapest Hotel, perhaps the most liked of all the nominees, which opened much earlier than Boyhood, to do well in the frou-frou technical categories. (Alas, its wonderful, multi-emotional score, the best of the year, will likely fall to the workmanlike heart-tugging of The Theory of Everything.)
Lots of “likelys” this year, and no doubt some surprises in store if you’ve seen many of these films besides American Sniper. Agree? Disagree? Comment below…and feel free to click onto my new Letterboxd page to see my lists of favorites and worsts for 2014 and 2015.
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