UPDATE: A few minor tweaks in the spread have changed my bets a little bit, but nothing more than half a point or more than few dollars. Gaining the half point in Chicago made the computer a bit less enthusiastic about the Bears, and the change on the Dallas line led to the computer switching its pick, since a single hedge bet came in on the side of Carolina. A new summary sheet is here. Still no line on the Philadelphia game.
UPDATE 2: Ah, finally. The line on the Philadelphia game is up – the Eagles are favored by 8.5 points. Which means that Gamblor would like to place (gulp) a $31.50 bet on the Chiefs. My thoughts are summarized below.
I really enjoyed my Sunday last week. In the morning, I watched my chosen team (the Raiders) put together a sensational drive late in the game to come from behind and pull out an improbable win (and win some money for me). In the afternoon, my girlfriend and I watched her chosen team (the Bears) put together a sensational drive late in the game to come from behind and pull out an improbable win (and win some more money for me). In the evening I went out and saw We Were Promised Jetpacks, The Twilight Sad, and Frightened Rabbit play a corker of a show at the Knitting Factory. It was a good day. Last week I mentioned that I’d be impressed if Gamblor could beat his Week 1 weighted win percentage of 77.5%. He didn’t, but he came awfully close, nailing 75.1% of his picks – and finishing 11-5 for the week (tabulated summary is here). My own picks were a little better, going 9-7, which brings me to even for the season. As I mentioned before, you’re better off listening to the computer, not me.
You’d expect that Vegas would have enjoyed their Sunday as well, as the week featured a number of close games and underdogs prevailed in 9 of the 16 games. Unfortunately, the bettors were a little bit too savvy and correctly identified Oakland and Baltimore as the same kind of dogs I’d like to see set loose on Michael Vick’s testicles. So the books took a beating, and likely will try to recoup their losses this week. I find Gamblor’s picks a bit unsettling this week, as it only likes one favorite in the entire slate of games. Then again, it only liked one favorite last week too, and it’s awfully hard to argue with those kinds of results. This week, the computer is making a grand total of 1464 hedge bets – its sixth most ever. For some historical context, the most hedge bets it has ever made was 1806, which happened in Week 15 of 2005. In weeks that it has wanted to make this many hedge bets, it has actually done quite well – when making 1200 hedge bets or more it has been profitable 13 out of 22 times – with an overall win percentage of 57.2%. So I’ll swallow my concerns and let Gamblor continue (I hope) to work his magic.
One of the reasons the computer is so enthusiastic about underdogs this week is because many of those underdogs are playing at home. Some of the tougher teams in the league (New Orleans, Green Bay, New York Giants, and Pittsburgh) are headed out on the road against comparatively weaker teams (Buffalo, St. Louis, Tampa Bay, and Cincinnati), which means that although we’ll probably see at least one upset, it’s virtually guaranteed that a few unlucky cities will have to watch their teams get slaughtered on their own home fields. Which brings me to my feature for the week… (more…)
Is there anything more satisfying than second-guessing the decisions that players and coaches and referees make while they are in the midst of intense pressure, deafening crowds, and hurtling bodies that collide with such force that it’s a wonder fission doesn’t take place? Monday morning quarterbacking is one of the guiltiest delights of the game of football. The tactical nature of the game enables us to pick through every play in slow motion and critique every missed block, every mistimed route, every blown coverage that occurs during the course of a single play. There’s no sport that gives us a better chance to say “…if only” and be absolutely certain that if that receiver had just thought to lateral the ball before getting laid out by the safety while he was six inches short of the first down marker, the outcome of the game if not the ENTIRE SEASON would been totally different.
There’s a statistical phenomenon called 
Two years ago, after being introduced to the computer program 
It’s hard to say no to a free bottle of tequila. It’s even harder to write a review of that free tequila where you explain how the only way they could have made a less palatable product is by mashing up three turnips and a carrot, filtering the juice through a nylon stocking they found on the side of the interstate, and leaving the swill in an unwashed goldfish tank for two weeks to ferment using leftover saran wrap from a package of ground beef as a valve, then distilling it in a column made from the catalytic converter of a 1984 Oldsmobile. Fortunately, this is not that review.
A couple weeks ago my girlfriend and I took a trip to Chicago for the weekend. The weather on Sunday was practically identical to that during Ferris Bueller’s legendary day off: mostly sunny with a high temperature of 69 degrees. It was the kind of weather that inspired Ferris (Matthew Broderick) to remark thoughtfully to the audience, “how could I possibly be expected to handle school on a day like this?” before taking off for a day of surprisingly wholesome adventures in downtown Chicago with his best friend Cameron (Alan Ruck) and his girlfriend Sloane (Mia Sara).
In “There’s No Secrets this Year,” the first song on Swoon, the Silversun Pickups come out swinging for the fences. If the band has been bothered by frequent comparisons to the Smashing Pumpkins, they don’t show any signs of it here. It’s an auspicious track that makes the same kind of promises that “Cherub Rock” made as the opening track of Siamese Dream fifteen years ago.
